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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Plasmonic Ag nanocomposite phosphate glasses produced via γ-ray irradiation as reduction route

This paper reports on the impact of γ-ray irradiation (10, 100 kGy) on melt-quenched Ag + -doped phosphate glass and the effects of subsequent thermal processing leading to the production of plasmonic Ag nanocomposites. The γ-irradiated glasses were characterized alongside the pristine by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Raman spectroscopy, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, optical absorption, and photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. DSC characterization showed consistent glass transition temperatures (T g ) before and after γ-irradiation whereas the crystallization temperatures tended to decrease with increasing γ-ray dose. However, a lack of alteration of the glass network structure was supported by Raman spectroscopy. Room temperature EPR spectra clearly showed the formation of phosphorus oxygen hole center (POHC) defects in the undoped host, in addition to another doublet likely associated with a P 3 defect. The presence of paramagnetic silver species encompassing Ag 2+ and 107/109 Ag 0 atoms was also indicated in the silver-activated glass together with POHC defects. Optical absorption spectra were also consistent with the presence of various radiation-induced centers. Further analyzing the glass absorption edge via Tauc plots suggested the formation of electron center (EC) defects in γ-irradiated samples wherein the silver-doped glass exhibited decreasing band gap energies with increasing γ-ray dose. The PL characterization showed the silver-related radio-PL effect was induced exhibiting broad band emission with two maxima around 500 and 625 nm stemming from various molecular Ag$^{x+}_{n}$ clusters. Emission decay analyses revealed that the longer wavelength emission exhibited slower decay. The highest radiation dose of 100 kGy however resulted in weaker emission and faster decay kinetics attributed to energy transfer between the luminescent silver species and POHC defects. Finally subjecting the γ-irradiated Ag-doped glasses to heat treatment near the T g at 490 °C led to the development of the surface plasmon resonance of Ag nanoparticles (NPs) and the vanishing of the Ag$^{x+}_{n}$ clusters luminescence. In conclusion, the presence of the matrix-related EC defects was deemed accountable for the thermally induced reduction and consequent precipitation of Ag NPs making the plasmonic glasses attractive for photonic applications such as nonlinear optics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A MPET 2 -mPBPK model for subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics with different molecular weights: From local scale to whole-body scale

Subcutaneous injection of biotherapeutics has attracted considerable attention in the pharmaceutical industry. However, there is limited understanding of the mechanisms underlying the absorption of drugs with different molecular weights and the delivery of drugs from the injection site to the targeted tissue. Here, we propose the MPET 2 -mPBPK model to address this issue. This multiscale model couples the MPET 2 model, which describes subcutaneous injection at the local tissue scale from a biomechanical view, with a post-injection absorption model at injection site and a minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) model at whole-body scale. Utilizing the principles of tissue biomechanics and fluid dynamics, the local MPET 2 model provides solutions that account for tissue deformation and drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels during injection. Additionally, we introduce a model accounting for the molecular weight effect on the absorption by blood vessels, and a nonlinear model accounting for the absorption in lymphatic vessels. The post-injection model predicts drug absorption in local blood vessels and initial lymphatic vessels, which are integrated into the whole-body mPBPK model to describe the pharmacokinetic behaviors of the absorbed drug in the circulatory and lymphatic system. We establish a numerical model which links the biomechanical process of subcutaneous injection at local tissue scale and the pharmacokinetic behaviors of injected biotherapeutics at whole-body scale. With the help of the model, we propose an explicit relationship between the reflection coefficient and the molecular weight and predict the bioavalibility of biotherapeutics with varying molecular weights via subcutaneous injection. The considered drug absorption mechanisms enable us to study the differences in local drug absorption and whole-body drug distribution with varying molecular weights. This model enhances the understanding of drug absorption mechanisms and transport routes in the circulatory system for drugs of different molecular weights, and holds the potential to facilitate the application of computational modeling to drug formulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking Pressure to Electrochemical Evolution in Solid-State Conversion Cathode Composites

Conversion-type cathodes, such as sulfur, FeS 2 , and FeF 3 , offer high theoretical capacities in solid-state lithium batteries but are hindered by substantial volume changes during cycling, leading to interfacial contact loss, crack formation, and microstructural degradation. Here, we investigate the relationships between electrochemical, mechanical, and structural evolution in solid-state electrode composites with these three active materials. Using real-time stack-pressure monitoring, synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and electrokinetic modeling, we elucidate how stress evolution is linked to reversible and irreversible redox reactions. Nonlinear stack pressure evolution in cells with sulfur, FeS 2 , and FeF 3 electrode composites is found to arise from material-specific volume changes, the balance of volume change between the working and counter electrode, and the formation of distinct reaction intermediates. The three materials exhibit distinct stack pressure evolution, which is closely related to the different reaction processes in the materials, as demonstrated with X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements. Through mesoscale modeling, we relate the experimental measurements to species evolution at the particle scale and track the dynamic coexistence of intermediate phases. Our findings highlight the importance of designing for volume changes of a given active material in solid-state battery systems.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resonance-Enhanced Multiphoton Ionization in the X-Ray Regime

In this work, we report on the nonlinear ionization of argon atoms in the short wavelength regime using ultraintense x rays from the European XFEL. After sequential multiphoton ionization, high charge states are obtained. For photon energies that are insufficient to directly ionize a 1s electron, a different mechanism is required to obtain ionization to Ar 17+ . We propose this occurs through a two-color process where the second harmonic of the FEL pulse resonantly excites the system via a 1s→2p transition followed by ionization by the fundamental FEL pulse, which is a type of x-ray resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization (REMPI). This resonant phenomenon occurs not only for Ar 16+ , but also through lower charge states, where multiple ionization competes with decay lifetimes, making x-ray REMPI distinctive from conventional REMPI. With the aid of state-of-the-art theoretical calculations, we explain the effects of x-ray REMPI on the relevant ion yields and spectral profile.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive optical third-harmonic generation microscopy for in vivo imaging of tissues

Third-harmonic generation microscopy is a powerful label-free nonlinear imaging technique, providing essential information about structural characteristics of cells and tissues without requiring external labelling agents. In this work, we integrated a recently developed compact adaptive optics module into a third-harmonic generation microscope, to measure and correct for optical aberrations in complex tissues. Taking advantage of the high sensitivity of the third-harmonic generation process to material interfaces and thin membranes, along with the 1,300-nm excitation wavelength used here, our adaptive optical third-harmonic generation microscope enabled high-resolution in vivo imaging within highly scattering biological model systems. Examples include imaging of myelinated axons and vascular structures within the mouse spinal cord and deep cortical layers of the mouse brain, along with imaging of key anatomical features in the roots of the model plant Brachypodium distachyon. In all instances, aberration correction led to enhancements in image quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interactive Exploration of High-Dimensional Phase Diagrams

High-dimensional thermodynamic phase stability databases are becoming increasingly common due to the convergence of three recent trends: (i) the widespread interest in so-called “high-entropy” alloys, (ii) the availability of high-throughput computational assessments of phase stability in broad composition spaces and (iii) the ongoing development of ever-increasingly broad, multicomponent, multiphase CALPHAD databases. Although automated computational tools can readily process such high-dimensional data, scientists are often unable to visualize the relevant phase relations, an ability that is crucial to gaining an intuitive understanding of the stability constraints governing materials design. The present work addresses this need by providing algorithms that enable the interactive exploration of phase equilibria in high-dimensional spaces. These algorithms concentrate the complex nonlinear nonsmooth optimization needed into a preprocessing step that generates a large number of high-dimensional yet elementary graphical primitives. Furthermore, these primitives can then be cross-sectioned to yield 3-dimensional views in a computationally efficient manner that enables an interactive exploration of high-dimensional spaces. All of these operations are highly parallelizable, thus facilitating scaling of this method to large data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of active probing-based system identification techniques with applications in power systems

System identification is becoming a relevant research area for numerous applications in power grids due to the increasing complexity of the system. A paradigm shift in power system infrastructure driven by renewable energy resources, controllable loads, and new power electronics technologies have given rise to new challenges in power systems operation and control. This increased complexity of power systems and unavailability of physics-based models of most inverter-based resources requires that traditional modeling of power systems approaches be complemented by system identification-based black or grey box modeling techniques. In light of the importance of system identification and little attention paid to the applications of these techniques in transforming power systems, this paper provides a comprehensive review of active probing-based system identification methods in the context of power system applications. It reviews applications of both linear and nonlinear system identification with discussion on their potential and key takeaways. To motivate a further practical use in power systems, the paper provides an example of system identification, to develop a state space model of an unknown plant with step-by-step details. The paper highlights the advantages of using modern power electronics-based sources in the identification process and discusses the emerging research directions for future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Continental-Scale Geographic Trends in Barometric-Pumping Efficiency Potential: A North American Case Study

Barometric pumping is a gas transport mechanism that has important implications for many applications involving subsurface gas seepage processes. Here, this study provides the first continental-scale analysis of barometric-pumping efficiency potential based on meteorology. We quantified the barometric-pumping efficiency potential at 1,257 locations across the continental US and Canada. The results provide continental-scale geographic dependencies of barometric-pumping efficiency potential, indicating a significant correlation with latitude and a nonlinear dependence on longitude. The analysis also indicates that variability in barometric-pumping efficiency potential decreases with distance from the coast and as elevation increases. Locations far from the coastline are more likely to have upper mid-range potentials, while higher elevation locations are more likely to have low potentials. The highest barometric-pumping efficiency potentials are mostly found around the Gulf of St. Lawrence around 50°N. Locations along the Atlantic coast exhibit large-scale variations in potentials with a clear increasing trend with latitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Characterization of Photoemission from Plasmonic Nanogroove Arrays

Metal photocathodes are an important source of high-brightness electron beams, ubiquitous in the operation of both large-scale accelerators and table-top microscopes. When the surface of a metal is nanoengineered with patterns on the order of the optical wavelength, it can lead to the excitation and confinement of surface-plasmon-polariton waves that drive nonlinear photoemission. In this work, we aim to evaluate gold plasmonic nanogrooves as a concept for producing bright electron beams for accelerators via nonlinear photoemission. Here, we do this by first comparing their optical properties to numerical calculations from first principles to confirm our ability to fabricate these nanoscale structures. Their nonlinear photoemission yield is found by measuring emitted photocurrent as the intensity of their driving laser is varied. Finally, the mean transverse energy of this electron source is found using the solenoid-scan technique. Our data demonstrate the ability of these cathodes to provide a tenfold enhancement in the efficiency of photoemission over flat metals driven with a linear process. We find that these cathodes are robust and capable of reaching sustained average currents over 100 nA at optical intensities larger than 2 GW cm –2 with no degradation of performance. The emittance of the generated beam is found to be highly asymmetric, a fact we can explain with calculations involving the also asymmetric roughness of the patterned surface. These results demonstrate the use of nanoengineered surfaces as enhanced photocathodes, providing a robust air-stable source of high-average-current electron beams hopefully with great potential for industrial and scientific applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Participation Factors Using the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform

This paper proposes a data-driven approach for estimating participation factors for a power system using only simulation results on selected disturbances. The approach is purely response-based and does not need a linearized system model for eigen-analysis, which makes it applicable to systems whose detailed, complete mathematical models are not available. Considering the unavoidable nonlinearity as exhibited in the transient period of a system response, the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform is applied to simulated responses for modal analysis to obtain participation factors. Based on simulations of Kundur's two-area system using both the electromagnetic transient model and phasor model, the participation factors estimated by the proposed approach are compared with two other signal processing tools, the Prony analysis and continuous wavelet transform, and are also benchmarked with conventional model-based participation factors.

participation factor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bistable dynamics and Hopf bifurcation in a refined model of early stage HIV infection

Recent clinical studies have shown that HIV disease pathogenesis can depend strongly on many factors at the time of transmission, including the strength of the initial viral load and the local availability of CD4+ T-cells. In this article, a new within-host model of HIV infection that incorporates the homeostatic proliferation of T-cells is formulated and analyzed. Due to the effects of this biological process, the influence of initial conditions on the proliferation of HIV infection is further elucidated. The identifiability of parameters within the model is investigated and a local stability analysis, which displays additional complexity in comparison to previous models, is conducted. The current study extends previous theoretical and computational work on the early stages of the disease and leads to interesting nonlinear dynamics, including a parameter region featuring bistability of infectious and viral clearance equilibria and the appearance of a Hopf bifurcation within biologically relevant parameter regimes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Low-Power Time-to-Digital Converter for the CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) Upgrade

We present the design and test results of a Time-to-Digital-Converter (TDC). The TDC will be a part of the readout ASIC, called ETROC, to read out Low-Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGADs) for the CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) of High-Luminosity LHC upgrade. One of the challenges of the ETROC design is that the TDC is required to consume less than 200 W for each pixel at the nominal hit occupancy of 1%. To meet the low-power requirement, we use a single delay line for both the Time of Arrival (TOA) and the Time over Threshold (TOT) measurements without delay control. A double-strobe self-calibration scheme is used to compensate for process variation, temperature, and power supply voltage. The TDC is fabricated in a 65 nm CMOS technology. The overall performances of the TDC have been evaluated. The TOA has a bin size of 17.8 ps within its effective dynamic range of 11.6 ns. The effective measurement precision of the TOA is 5.6 ps and 9.9 ps with and without the nonlinearity correction, respectively. The TDC block consumes 97 W at the hit occupancy of 1%. Over a temperature range from 23 C to 78 C and a power supply voltage range from 1.05 V to 1.35 V (the nominal value of 1.20 V), the self-calibrated bin size of the TOA varies within 0.4%. The measured TDC performances meet the requirements except that more tests will be performed in the future to verify that the TDC complies with the radiation-tolerance specifications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward ultrafast soft x-ray spectroscopy of organic photovoltaic devices

Novel ultrafast x-ray sources based on high harmonic generation and at x-ray free electron lasers are opening up new opportunities to resolve complex ultrafast processes in condensed phase systems with exceptional temporal resolution and atomic site specificity. In this perspective, we present techniques for resolving charge localization, transfer, and separation processes in organic semiconductors and organic photovoltaic devices with time-resolved soft x-ray spectroscopy. We review recent results in ultrafast soft x-ray spectroscopy of these systems and discuss routes to overcome the technical challenges in performing time-resolved x-ray experiments on photosensitive materials with poor thermal conductivity and low pump intensity thresholds for nonlinear effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗