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NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗

NASA NTRS2010

Failure Bounding And Sensitivity Analysis Applied To Monte Carlo Entry, Descent, And Landing Simulations

In the study of entry, descent, and landing, Monte Carlo sampling methods are often employed to study the uncertainty in the designed trajectory. The large number of uncertain inputs and outputs, coupled with complicated non-linear models, can make interpretation of the results difficult. Three methods that provide statistical insights are applied to an entry, descent, and landing simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed in terms of the insights gained versus the computational cost. The first method investigated was failure domain bounding which aims to reduce the computational cost of assessing the failure probability. Next a variance-based sensitivity analysis was studied for the ability to identify which input variable uncertainty has the greatest impact on the uncertainty of an output. Finally, probabilistic sensitivity analysis is used to calculate certain sensitivities at a reduced computational cost. These methods produce valuable information that identifies critical mission parameters and needs for new technology, but generally at a significant computational cost.

Gaebler, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Numerical Study of Lander Engine Plume Impingement on the Surface of Europa

Plume exhaust from lander engines would be of concern when landing on the surface of Europa since it could have detrimental effects on both the landing surface and powered descent vehicle. The plume could also entrain particles and redirect them up toward the landing vehicle, as well as erode and contaminate the surface where science would be conducted. In this work, a numerical methodology is developed and validated to conduct a first-order assessment of individual engine plumes of a potential Europa Lander vehicle. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to solve the flow field inside and immediately downstream of the nozzle, while the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied further downstream where the flow becomes rarefied. An interface between the two domains is defined where macroscopic flow data is passed from the CFD domain to the DSMC domain, establishing a one-way coupling. Plume pressure and velocity fields, as well as ground heating, pressure and density flux profiles, are obtained at altitudes from 25 m down to 10 m, spanning the final stages of landing. The codes and methodologies used in this study are successfully validated with simulations conducted by Morris et al. of the Apollo Lunar Module Descent Engine (LMDE) exhaust plume impinging onto the lunar surface.

Lam, Rebekah↗

NASA NTRS2020

Examining Biases in Diurnally-Integrated Shortwave Irradiances due to Two- and Four-Stream Approximations in Cloudy Atmosphere

Shortwave irradiance biases due to two- and four-stream approximations have been studied for the last couple of decades, but biases in estimating Earth’s radiation budget have not been examined in earlier studies. In order to quantify biases in diurnally-averaged irradiances, we integrate the two- and four-stream biases using realistic diurnal variations of cloud properties from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) synoptic (SYN) hourly product. Three approximations are examined in this study, delta-two-stream-Eddington (D2strEdd), delta- two-stream-quadrature (D2strQuad), and delta-four-stream-quadrature (D4strQuad). Irradiances computed by the Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT) and Monte Carlo (MC) methods are used as references. The MC noises are further examined by comparing with DISORT results. When the biases are integrated with a one-day of solar zenith angle variation, regional biases of D2strEdd and D2strQuad reach up to 8 W/sq.m, while biases of D4strQuad reach up to 2 W/sq.m. When the biases are further averaged monthly or annually, regional biases of D2strEdd and D2strQuad can reach –1.5 W/sq.m in SW top-of-atmosphere (TOA) upward irradiances and +3 W/sq.m in surface downward irradiances. In contrast, regional biases of D4strQuad are within +0.9 for TOA irradiances and –1.2 W/sq.m for surface irradiances. Except for polar regions, monthly and annual global mean biases are similar, suggesting that the biases are nearly independent to season. Biases in SW heating rate profiles are up to –0.008 K/d for D2strEdd and –0.016 K/d for D2strQuad, while the biases of the D4strQuad method are negligible.

Ham, Seung-Hee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simultaneous Development and Robust Optimization of a Microstructure Dependent Material

Recent microstructure characterization techniques combined with Symbolic Regression(SR)analysis has been proven to generate white box plasticity models well suited for incorporation into FEA software.The current work builds upon those efforts and demonstrates the applicability of Sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) methods within SR analysis to condense model development and robust optimization into a single, co-dependent process. In this project, SMC methods provide a mechanism through which the observed microstructure features and associated variability can be incorporated into the discovery phase of model development and simultaneously recover approximate parameter distributions through SR analysis. The demonstration utilized a data set consisting of tensile test results from a limited number of sample specimens with corresponding EBSD data from which microstructure features were characterized.The maximum threshold stress model in the Visco-Plastic Self-Consistent (VPSC) code developed by Los Alamos National Laboratories was calibrated using mechanical test data.Synthetic volume elements with statistically equivalent microstructure were generated with DREAM3Dbased on the observed EBSD data. VPSC was used to simulate the corresponding tensile test response for each of the synthetic volume elements. The simulated microstructure and tensile test data was used astraining datafor SMC-SR algorithm and the resulting model was validated with data from the original empirical data set.

Karl Garbrecht↗

NASA NTRS2019

Numerical study of lander engine plume impingement on the surface off Europa

Plume exhaust from lander engines would be of concern when landing on the surface of Europa since it could have detrimental effects on both the landing surface and powered descent vehicle. The plume could also entrain particles and redirect them up toward the landing vehicle, as well as erode and contaminate the surface where science would be conducted. In this work, a numerical methodology is developed and validated to conduct a first-order assessment of individual engine plumes of a potential Europa Lander vehicle. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to solve the flow field inside and immediately downstream of the nozzle, while the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied further downstream where the flow becomes rarefied. An interface between the two domains is defined where macroscopic flow data is passed from the CFD domain to the DSMC domain, establishing a one-way coupling. Plume pressure and velocity fields, as well as ground heating, pressure and density flux profiles, are obtained at altitudes from 25 m down to 10 m, spanning the final stages of landing. The codes and methodologies used in this study are successfully validated with simulations conducted by Morris et al. [1-3] of the Apollo Lunar Module Descent Engine (LMDE) exhaust plume impinging onto the lunar surface.

Hoey, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validating Drag and Heating Coefficients for Hollow Reentry Objects in Continuum Flow Using a Mach 7 Ludwieg Tube

Drag and heating coefficient databases and models are crucial to destructive reentry simulation. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops, maintains, and performs analysis with the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT), which comprises drag and heating models for free molecular, transitional, and continuum flow regimes. These models have, in the past, only included solid, convex, blunt shapes (such as boxes, spheres, and cylinders). Previous work led by ODPO includes the extension of these models to hollow cylinders and square boxes in free molecular and transitional flow using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Since 2019, the ODPO has continued its program of DSMC simulations and extended the project to include analyses with the NASA Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) program on hollow cylinders and boxes (with varying wall thickness-diameter ratio). In fall 2022, the ODPO began a collaboration with the University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA) to use the Mach 7 Ludwieg Tube facility to validate the model built using numerical simulations. This facility can replicate (at a scale of approximately 100:1) the conditions seen by reentering objects near typical demise altitudes. We present here the drag and heating coefficients derived from the continued DSMC simulations, the new DPLR simulations, and the 26-test series at UTSA.

Chris Ostrom↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison Between DSMC and CFD for Hypersonic Planetary Entry Simulations

Hypersonic planetary entry flows span a wide range of Knudsen numbers between rarefied and continuum flows. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques cannot provide an accurate solution for flows in the rarefied regime, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is capable of providing accurate solutions for flows in both in the rarefied and continuum regimes but becomes prohibitively expensive as the Knudsen number decreases. For the purpose of thermal protection systems (TPS) design and post-flight reconstruction, various selected points along an entry trajectory are often solved using hypersonic solvers. The quantities of interest that are obtained from that exercise are generally surface quantities, such as pressure, heat flux and enthalpy. Then, material response solvers are used to either design the heat shield to an optimal thickness based on a choice of material, or to provide in-depth heating profiles through the material at various select locations, and compare with flight instrumentation such as the ones that flew on NASA’s two most recent Mars missions, MSL and Mars2020. While most of the heating is generally experienced during the continuum part of the entry, the heating within the rarefied regime is significant for some atmospheres, and hence the flow solutions need to be computed using the DSMC method. Ensuring consistency between hypersonic CFD and the DSMC is crucial so that reliable surface quantities can be passed to material response solvers. Studies were performed to compare the two methods at various select locations, for both non-reacting argon flows as well reacting CO2/N2 flows. Preliminary conclusions show that, for non-reacting flows, the agreement between the two methods for surface heating is excellent (within expected uncertainties) for a freestream Knudsen number of 0.0006, and gets progressively worse as the Knudsen number increases to 0.06. Continuum breakdown analyses were performed and showed that, in general, the Gradient Length Local Knudsen number (KnGLL) from Boyd [1] and associated criteria (KnGLL > 0.05) can be accurately used to predict zones of breakdown in the flow, and associated errors for surface quantities. Furthermore, when studying reacting flow, our studies showed that while flow quantities are highly dependent on relaxation parameters and chemistry rates, it is possible to obtain a good agreement for surface heating, as long as the continuum breakdown in minimal (see Fig. 1). Finally, we studied the impact of the grid refinement on the surface quantities in DSMC.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison Between DSMC and CFD for Hypersonic Planetary Entry Simulations

Hypersonic planetary entry flows span a wide range of Knudsen numbers between rarefied and continuum flows. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques cannot provide an accurate solution for flows in the rarefied regime, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is capable of providing accurate solutions for flows in both in the rarefied and continuum regimes but becomes prohibitively expensive as the Knudsen number decreases. For the purpose of thermal protection systems (TPS) design and post-flight reconstruction, various selected points along an entry trajectory are often solved using hypersonic solvers. The quantities of interest that are obtained from that exercise are generally surface quantities, such as pressure, heat flux and enthalpy. Then, material response solvers are used to either design the heat shield to an optimal thickness based on a choice of material, or to provide in-depth heating profiles through the material at various select locations, and compare with flight instrumentation such as the ones that flew on NASA’s two most recent Mars missions, MSL and Mars2020. While most of the heating is generally experienced during the continuum part of the entry, the heating within the rarefied regime is significant for some atmospheres, and hence the flow solutions need to be computed using the DSMC method. Ensuring consistency between hypersonic CFD and the DSMC is crucial so that reliable surface quantities can be passed to material response solvers. Studies were performed to compare the two methods at various select locations, for both non-reacting argon flows as well reacting CO2/N2 flows. Preliminary conclusions show that, for non-reacting flows, the agreement between the two methods for surface heating is excellent (within expected uncertainties) for a freestream Knudsen number of 0.0006, and gets progressively worse as the Knudsen number increases to 0.06. Continuum breakdown analyses were performed and showed that, in general, the Gradient Length Local Knudsen number (KnGLL) from Boyd and associated criterion (KnGLL > 0.05) seems conservative in predicting zones of breakdown in the flow, and associated errors for surface quantities. Updated criteria of KnGLL = 2.0 and 0.5 appear to be more appropriate for surface and flow quantities, respectively. Furthermore, when studying reacting flows, our studies showed that while flow quantities are highly dependent on relaxation parameters and chemistry rates, it is possible to obtain a good agreement for surface heating, as long as the continuum breakdown is minimal.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRS2023

Validating Drag and Heating Coefficients for Hollow Reentry Objects in Continuum Flow Using a Mach 7 Ludwieg Tube

Chris Ostrom↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bayesian Symbolic Regression: Addressing Challenges in Estimating Fractional Bayes Factors and Application to Fatigue Crack Growth Modeling

This research pioneers advancements in computational mechanics by integrating Bayesian-based uncertainty quantification into symbolic regression, specifically focusing on the critical task of accurately estimating the fractional Bayes factor for selecting arbitrary equations. In our exploration, we rigorously study two prominent methods—sequential Monte Carlo and the Laplace approximation—employed for computing the fractional Bayes factor. Our findings underscore the limitations of the Laplace approximation, revealing its diminished accuracy in nonlinear and multimodal scenarios. Specifically, the Laplace approximation is shown to underpredict fractional Bayes factor on a wide set of equations associated with a symbolic regression benchmark. This comparative analysis sheds light on the nuanced performance of these techniques, guiding researchers toward more informed choices in uncertainty quantification within symbolic regression. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility of these enhanced symbolic regression tools through their application to a real-world problem in fatigue crack growth modeling, emphasizing their efficacy in capturing the complexities of mechanical systems.

Geoffrey Bomarito↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determination of Interfacial Energy for Solid-State Precipitation

Precipitation of strengthening phases from solid state is a critical process for many materials. For example, the high-temperature creep resistance of Ni-based superalloys is governed by ’ precipitates. However, the interfacial energy which controls the precipitation is expensive to determine experimentally. For simulations, the atomic nature of precipitation events necessitates using Molecular Dynamics (MD) so relying on fitting to a-priori experimental behavior is not required. However, the solid-state precipitation takes orders of magnitude longer time than is accessible for traditional MD simulation. Taking inspiration from Kinetic Monte-Carlo (KMC) methods for simulating diffusion on a rigid lattice, we have developed a hybrid KMC-MD approach to enable simulation of solid-state precipitation (and determination of the interfacial energy). Implementing these methods in LAMMPS, we calculated the interfacial energy for the ’ precipitation out of a super-saturated  phase in Ni-based superalloys. The resulting interfacial energy value for the Ni-Al system is well within the accuracy of experimental values, demonstrating the capability of this method. Enabling the calculation of the interfacial energy without a-priori experimental knowledge of the precipitation unlocks a more efficient ICME-based approach for guiding annealing protocols in Ni-based superalloys and other solid-state precipitation systems.

Precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Plume Impingement Software Module for Real-Time Proximity Operations

Successfully executing proximity operations in space, such as docking or in-orbit servicing, requires sophisticated spacecraft design that accounts for induced environments. As a chaser vehicle’s attitude control thrusters fire, they create rarefied plumes that can impact the target vehicle, with the potential to overload components, exceed thermal limits, and spin the target vehicle out of control. High-fidelity simulations of the thruster plume impingement environment require the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, but DSMC is too computationally expensive to simulate proximity operations that involve thousands of thruster firings. For this analysis to be tractable, engineering models of the plume flowfield and impingement events are used to simulate these trajectories [1]. Currently, on-orbit plume impingement environments are modeled through an inefficient open-loop analysis cycle where the vehicle’s flight controller and plume impingement teams iterate on the trajectories until they pass the target vehicle’s plume requirements. As complex on-orbit missions evolve and become more frequent, lengthy design cycles will become operational bottlenecks. To address this gap, this work develops an advanced plume impingement module capable of operating at real-time scale that can be integrated with existing mission planning tools and onboard flight systems. The plume module leverages state-of-the-art plume simulation techniques [2] to deliver fast, physics-based impingement predictions in a software architecture that can be tailored to diverse proximity operations scenarios. A prototype of this plume impingement module is built to demonstrate the feasibility of real-time performance. This prototype completes plume impingement calculations in microseconds per target geometry mesh point. The software serves as a foundational capability for plume-aware trajectory design, operational risk assessment, and future autonomous decision-making systems.

Plume Impingement↗

NASA NTRS2019

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small diﬀerences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method ﬁrst explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Methods for Uncertainty Propagation Applied to Aircraft Design

Three methods of probabilistic uncertainty propagation and quantification (the method of moments, Monte Carlo simulation, and a nongradient simulation search method) are applied to an aircraft analysis and conceptual design program to demonstrate design under uncertainty. The chosen example problems appear to have discontinuous design spaces and thus these examples pose difficulties for many popular methods of uncertainty propagation and quantification. However, specific implementation features of the first and third methods chosen for use in this study enable successful propagation of small uncertainties through the program. Input uncertainties in two configuration design variables are considered. Uncertainties in aircraft weight are computed. The effects of specifying required levels of constraint satisfaction with specified levels of input uncertainty are also demonstrated. The results show, as expected, that the designs under uncertainty are typically heavier and more conservative than those in which no input uncertainties exist.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗