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At least 739 records · Page 41

PQML: Enabling the Predictive Reproducibility on NISQ Machines for Quantum ML Applications

Quantum computing represents a groundbreaking approach to high-performance computing. In recent years, quantum computers have progressed from single-qubit processors to systems boasting over 400 qubits. The presence of such a large number of qubits offers significant advantages, including enhanced computational speed—a capability beyond classical computing methods. However, the current stage of quantum computing is referred to as the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era. The existence of noise in this era presents challenges in testing quantum computing applications, leading to considerable variance in application results. Furthermore, the diverse noise characteristics observed across different machines exacerbate this issue, complicating the selection of the appropriate machine for application execution. In response to these challenges, we introduce our Predictive Quantum Machine Learning (PQML) tool. This tool is designed to predict outcomes when executing identical quantum machine learning applications—specifically, a critical suite of variational quantum algorithms—across various quantum computers during the NISQ era. This effort relies on data collected over a 12-month period. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to ensure reproducibility across quantum computers for complex circuits. Additionally, we have developed a model capable of forecasting the accuracy of quantum computers for variational quantum algorithms, with a particular emphasis on quantum machine learning as a case study.

Senapati, Priyabrata [Kent State University]↗

Computationally efficient Bayesian estimation of graphical networks for omics data

Graphical networks are useful, widely-used modeling approaches to represent complex biological processes with biological measurements generated by platforms such as mass spectrometry. Bayesian analyses of graphical networks for omics data have several advantages over their frequentist counterparts, such as the inclusion of prior knowledge in the estimation of models. However, Bayesian approaches to date have only been feasible for data with a couple hundred biomolecules due to prohibitive computational time, but omics data often contains tens of thousands of biomolecules. Here, we present and illustrate a more computationally efficient approach named BPlane (Bayesian PseudoLikelihood-based Algorithm for Network Estimation) to extend Bayesian modeling capabilities for larger-sized datasets, such as most untargeted proteomics data. Via simulation, we demonstrate that BPlane produces substantial computational savings over a current state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithm while maintaining competitive edge detection accuracy. On a SARS-CoV2 proteomics data with 7000 proteins, the competing algorithm takes three times as long to complete the first iteration as BPlane takes to converge after over 100 iterations.

EM algorithm↗

The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in Texas

Moving the current linear economy toward circularity is expected to have environmental, economic, and social impacts. Various modeling methods, including economic input-output modeling, life cycle assessment, agent-based modeling, and system dynamics, have been used to examine circular supply chains and analyze their impacts. This work describes the newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework, which is designed to model how the impacts of supply chains might change as circularity increases. We first establish the framework with a discussion of modeling capabilities that are needed to capture circularity transitions; these capabilities are based on the fact that supply chains moving toward circularity are dynamic and therefore not at steady state, may encompass multiple industrial sectors or other interdependent supply chains and occupy a large spatial area. To demonstrate the capabilities of CELAVI, we present a case study on end-of-life wind turbine blades in the U.S. state of Texas. Our findings show that depending on exact process costs and transportation distances, mechanical recycling could lead to 69% or more of end-of-life turbine blade mass being kept in circulation rather than being landfilled, with only a 7.1% increase in global warming potential over the linear supply chain. We discuss next steps for framework development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Outcomes and Conclusions from the 2022 AM Bench Measurements, Challenge Problems, Modeling Submissions, and Conference

The Additive Manufacturing Benchmark Test Series (AM Bench) provides rigorous measurement data for validating additive manufacturing (AM) simulations for a broad range of AM technologies and material systems. AM Bench includes extensive in situ and ex situ measurements, simulation challenges for the AM modeling community, and a corresponding conference series. In 2022, the second round of AM Bench measurements, challenge problems, and conference were completed, focusing primarily upon laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of metals, and both material extrusion processing and vat photopolymerization of polymers. In all, more than 100 people from 10 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) divisions and 21 additional organizations were directly involved in the AM Bench 2022 measurements, data management, and conference organization. The international AM community submitted 138 sets of blind modeling simulations for comparison with the in situ and ex situ measurements, up from 46 submissions for the first round of AM Bench in 2018. Analysis of these submissions provides valuable insight into current AM modeling capabilities. The AM Bench data are permanently archived and freely accessible online. The AM Bench conference also hosted an embedded workshop on qualification and certification of AM materials and components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advanced radiometric and interferometric milimeter-wave scene simulations

Smart munitions and weapons utilize various imaging sensors (including passive IR, active and passive millimeter-wave, and visible wavebands) to detect/identify targets at short standoff ranges and in varied terrain backgrounds. In order to design and evaluate these sensors under a variety of conditions, a high-fidelity scene simulation capability is necessary. Such a capability for passive millimeter-wave scene simulation exists at TRW. TRW's Advanced Radiometric Millimeter-Wave Scene Simulation (ARMSS) code is a rigorous, benchmarked, end-to-end passive millimeter-wave scene simulation code for interpreting millimeter-wave data, establishing scene signatures and evaluating sensor performance. In passive millimeter-wave imaging, resolution is limited due to wavelength and aperture size. Where high resolution is required, the utility of passive millimeter-wave imaging is confined to short ranges. Recent developments in interferometry have made possible high resolution applications on military platforms. Interferometry or synthetic aperture radiometry allows the creation of a high resolution image with a sparsely filled aperture. Borrowing from research work in radio astronomy, we have developed and tested at TRW scene reconstruction algorithms that allow the recovery of the scene from a relatively small number of spatial frequency components. In this paper, the TRW modeling capability is described and numerical results are presented.

Hauss, B. I.↗

Long term oxidation of NiCoCrAlY coated Ni-based superalloys: A comparison of observed and simulated interdiffusion

Lifetimes of MCrAlY-type coatings can easily surpass 25 kh when the criteria of ß-depletion is used. To reduce experimental effort, it’s necessary to develop models capable of simulating interdiffusion and oxidation. In the present study, NiCoCrAlY coatings were high velocity oxyfuel deposited on PWA 1483, MARM247, and CMSX-4 substrates, and samples were exposed at 900 °C for 5–20 kh in air+10 vol%H 2 O to study interdiffusion rates. Here, Thermo-Calc/DICTRA was used to reproduce the observed differences, and microstructures were compared. Based on the agreement between calculated and observed rates, simulations were projected past the experimental exposures, utilizing ß-depletion as lifetime criteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Atmosphere climate chemistry↗

Space Station module Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) system

This project consists of several tasks which are unified toward experimentally demonstrating the operation of a highly autonomous, user-supportive power management and distribution system for Space Station Freedom (SSF) habitation/laboratory modules. This goal will be extended to a demonstration of autonomous, cooperative power system operation for the whole SSF power system through a joint effort with NASA's Lewis Research Center, using their Autonomous Power System. Short term goals for the space station module power management and distribution include having an operational breadboard reflecting current plans for SSF, improving performance of the system communications, and improving the organization and mutability of the artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In the middle term, intermediate levels of autonomy will be added, user interfaces will be modified, and enhanced modeling capabilities will be integrated in the system. Long term goals involve conversion of all software into Ada, vigorous verification and validation efforts and, finally, seeing an impact of this research on the operation of SSF. Conversion of the system to a DC Star configuration is now in progress, and should be completed by the end of October, 1989. This configuration reflects the latest SSF module architecture. Hardware is now being procured which will improve system communications significantly. The Knowledge-Based Management System (KBMS) is initially developed and the rules from FRAMES have been implemented in the KBMS. Rules in the other two AI systems are also being grouped modularly, making them more tractable, and easier to eventually move into the KBMS. Adding an intermediate level of autonomy will require development of a planning utility, which will also be built using the KBMS. These changes will require having the user interface for the whole system available from one interface. An Enhanced Model will be developed, which will allow exercise of the system through the interface without requiring all of the power hardware to be operational. The functionality of the AI systems will continue to be advanced, including incipient failure detection. Ada conversion will begin with the lowest level processor (LLP) code. Then selected pieces of the higher level functionality will be recorded in Ada and, where possible, moved to the LLP level. Validation and verification will be done on the Ada code, and will complete sometimes after completion of the Ada conversion.

Walls, Bryan↗

ARC Software Validation Work for the FFTF Reactor

Extensive efforts have been carried out at ANL for the verification and validation of the Argonne Reactor Codes (ARC) software package currently used for the design of Versatile Test Reactor (VTR). The ARC software package consists of steady state neutronics and thermal hydraulics modeling capabilities which are being used by the VTR program to develop most of the VTR reactor design details which will be part of the licensing application. It is anticipated that this software will continue to be used for the design work and for initial operations although additional software may be introduced at a later time. The validation work was focused primarily on obtaining validation data consistent with VTR and usable for the ARC software. Because no critical facilities or operating fast spectrum reactors are available to do experiments for the VTR, the next best option is to identify historical experimental data that can be used as validation data. Early on in VTR, the ZPPR-15 set of experiments was identified as good validation data because of 1) the availability and quality of the data, 2) existing staff that are already familiar with the experimental machine and measurements, 3) most of the ZPPR-15 loadings of interest have already been processed into ARC models, and 4) a full uncertainty quantification has already been done for several loadings of ZPPR-15. The FFTF startup and operations data was identified as the most consistent reactor type that has validation data usable for VTR. Finally, the EBR-II fuel depletion measurements were identified as the best available validation data for VTR. It is important to note that both the FFTF and EBR-II reactors typically come with higher uncertainties than the ZPPR. In the frame of the discussed verification and validation efforts, the present document discusses the analysis of selected FFTF measurements included in the benchmark specifications of the International Reactor Physics Experiment (IRPhE) handbook. The FFTF reactor core configurations from the benchmark specification are presented in Section 2. The analysis is performed with the use of the ARC code suite available at ANL for fast reactor studies and is discussed in Section 3. The reactor parameters from the benchmark include criticality, neutron spectra, effective delayed neutron spectra, control rod worth, isothermal temperature coefficient and low energy gamma-ray spectra. The calculated values and the comparison with the experimental data is discussed in Sections 4 to 9 for each considered reactor parameter. Finally, conclusions are presented in Section 10.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance, affecting sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation on ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting in view of their long temporal coverage (1979–to date) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, being historically of the order of tens of kilometres. Here, we use a newly released passive microwave dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through the NASA MeASUREs program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the GrIS at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 Km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms through data collected by Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and the outputs of the MAR regional climate model. We found that surface melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of MEMLS model, capable to detect sporadic and persistent melting. Our results indicate that, during the reference period 1979–2019 (1988–2019), surface melting over the GrIS increased in terms of both duration, up to ~4.5 (2.9) days per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the GrIS surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season has started up to ~4 (2.5) days earlier and ended ~7 (3.9) days later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs through a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local scale processes, hence confirming the potential interest of this new enhanced product for studying surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and monitor its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modelled melt extent at high resolution and potentially to assimilate this data in climate models.

Surface melting↗

Influence of Cooling Channel Geometry on the Thermal Response in Silicon Nitride Plates Studied

Engine manufacturers are continually attempting to improve the performance and efficiency of internal combustion engines. Usually they raise the operating temperature or reduce the cooling air requirement for the hot section turbine components. However, the success of these attempts depends on finding materials that are lightweight, are strong, and can withstand high temperatures. Ceramics are among the top candidate materials considered for such harsh applications. They hold low-density, high-temperature strength, and thermal conductivity, and they are undergoing investigation as potential materials for replacing nickel-base alloys and superalloys that are currently used for engine hot-section components. Ceramic structures can withstand higher operating temperatures and a harsh combustion environment. In addition, their low densities relative to metals help reduce component mass. The long-term objectives of the High Temperature Propulsion Components (HOTPC) Project are to develop manufacturing technology, thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TBC/EBC), and the analytical modeling capability to predict thermomechanical stresses in minimally cooled silicon nitride turbine nozzle vanes under simulated engine conditions. Two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses with TBC were conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Nondestructive evaluation was used to determine processing defects. The study included conducting preliminary parametric analytical runs of heat transfer and stress analyses under steady-state conditions to demonstrate the feasibility of using cooled Si3N4 parts for turbine applications. The influence of cooling-channel shapes (such as circular, square, and ascending-order cooling channels) on cooling efficiency and thermal stresses was investigated. Temperature distributions were generated for all cases considered under both cooling and no-cooling conditions, with air being the cooling medium. The table shows the magnitude of the maximum and minimum temperature obtained for the plates under air cooling. Each channel's cross-sectional shape delivered a different temperature; however, the two-dimensional analyses for circular and square or equal-side rectangular holes produced close results. Moreover, the model of the panel with ascending order cooling channels experienced the lowest temperature. A difference of near 260 C was found among the three cooling-hole configurations investigated. The ascending-order cooling channels arrangement showed superior performance by attaining the lowest temperature (1077 C) in comparison to the circular (1379 C) and square (1343 C) channels for the same cooling-hole size. This indicates that the panel with ascending-order cooling channels is the most suitable configuration regardless of the complexity involved in its manufacture. More details pertaining to this study are reported.

Abdul-Aziz, Ali↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Roadmap to Advance Heliostat Technologies for Concentrating Solar-Thermal Power

Heliostat-based concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) systems can offer immense potential to provide low-cost, dispatchable renewable thermal and electrical energy to help achieve 100% decarbonized energy infrastructure in the United States. Heliostats are a major capital cost technology and a performance-dominating component of state-of-the-art commercial molten salt towers and Generation 3 CSP systems. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) launched the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon), a five-year initiative to advance heliostat technologies. The HelioCon mission is threefold: (1) establish strategic core testing and modeling capabilities and infrastructure at national labs; (2) support heliostat technology development in relevant industries; and (3) serve as a central repository to integrate industry, academia, and other stakeholders for heliostat technology research, development, validation, and deployment. In this report, HelioCon presents a roadmapping study on advancing heliostat technologies, intended as a central reference for the whole CSP community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Earthshine as an Illumination Source at the Moon

Earthshine is the dominant source of natural illumination on the surface of the Moon during lunar night, and at some locations within permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) near the poles that never receive direct sunlight. As such, earthshine has the potential to enable the scientific investigation and exploration of conditions in areas of the Moon that are either temporarily or permanently hidden from the Sun. Earthshine has also been used to refer to Earthlight reflected from the lunar surface, but in this study we use it to refer specifically to Earthlight incident at the Moon. Under certain circumstances, the heat flux from earthshine could also influence the transport and cold-trapping of volatiles present in the very coldest areas within PSRs. In this study, Earth's spectral irradiance, as it would appear at the Moon in the solar reflectance band (0.3–3.0 µm) and at thermal emission wavelengths (3–50 µm), is examined with a suite of model image cubes and whole-disk spectra created using the Virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) three-dimensional (latitude, longitude and altitude) modeling capability. At the Moon, the broadband, hemispherical irradiance from Earth at full-phase is approximately 0.15 W m−2 with comparable contributions from solar reflectance and thermal emission; for context, this about 0.01% that of solar irradiance and has an equivalent temperature of around 40 K. Over the simulated timeframe, spanning two lunations, Earth's thermal irradiance shows very little net change (less than a few mW m−2 resulting from cloud variability and the south-to-north motion of the sub-observer latitude on Earth). In the solar band, Earth's diurnally averaged light curve at phase angles g ≤ 60° is well-fit using a Henyey–Greenstein integral phase function. At wavelengths longward of about 0.7 µm, near the well-known vegetation “red edge”, Earth's reflected solar radiance shows significant diurnal modulation as a result of the broad maximum in projected landmass at terrestrial longitudes between 60°W and 0°, as well as from the distribution of clouds. A simple formulation with adjustable coefficients is presented, condensed from the VPL model grid, for estimating Earth's hemispherical irradiance at the Moon as a function of wavelength, phase angle and sub-observer coordinates (terrestrial latitude and longitude). Uncertainties in any one prediction are estimated to be 10–12% at 0.3 µm, rising to >25% near 2.5 µm as a result of the increasing relative brightness and unpredictable influence of clouds. Although coefficient values are derived from a suite of spring equinox models, the approximation appears to be valid for all seasons, to within the stated uncertainties. It is demonstrated that earthshine is sufficiently bright to serve as a natural illumination source for optical measurements on a robotic lander/rover, allowing the identification of water ice mixed with regolith at the percent-level of fractional area.

Surface↗

Extraction-Separation Performance and Dynamic Modeling of Orion Test Vehicles with Adams Simulation: 2nd Edition

NASA's Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) project has advanced into the third generation of its parachute test campaign and requires technically comprehensive modeling capabilities to simulate multi-body dynamics (MBD) of test articles released from a C-17. Safely extracting a 30,000 lbm mated test article from a C-17 and performing stable mid-air separation maneuvers requires an understanding of the interaction between elements in the test configuration and how they are influenced by extraction parachute performance, aircraft dynamics, aerodynamics, separation dynamics, and kinetic energy experienced by the system. During the real-time extraction and deployment sequences, these influences can be highly unsteady and difficult to bound. An avionics logic window based on time, pitch, and pitch rate is used to account for these effects and target a favorable separation state in real time. The Adams simulation has been employed to fine-tune this window, as well as predict and reconstruct the coupled dynamics of the Parachute Test Vehicle (PTV) and Cradle Platform Separation System (CPSS) from aircraft extraction through the mid-air separation event. The test-technique for the extraction of CPAS test articles has evolved with increased complexity and requires new modeling concepts to ensure the test article is delivered to a stable test condition for the programmer phase. Prompted by unexpected dynamics and hardware malfunctions in drop tests, these modeling improvements provide a more accurate loads prediction by incorporating a spring-damper line-model derived from the material properties. The qualification phase of CPAS testing is on the horizon and modeling increasingly complex test-techniques with Adams is vital to successfully qualify the Orion parachute system for human spaceflight.

Fraire, Usbaldo, Jr.↗

Assessment of Current Estimates of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and OSTM 17-Year Record

The science value of satellite altimeter observations has grown dramatically over time as enabling models and technologies have increased the value of data acquired on both past and present missions. With the prospect of an observational time series extending into several decades from TOPEX/Poseidon through Jason-1 and the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM), and further in time with a future set of operational altimeters, researchers are pushing the bounds of current technology and modeling capability in order to monitor global sea level rate at an accuracy of a few tenths of a mm/yr. The measurement of mean sea-level change from satellite altimetry requires an extreme stability of the altimeter measurement system since the signal being measured is at the level of a few mm/yr. This means that the orbit and reference frame within which the altimeter measurements are situated, and the associated altimeter corrections, must be stable and accurate enough to permit a robust MSL estimate. Foremost, orbit quality and consistency are critical to satellite altimeter measurement accuracy. The orbit defines the altimeter reference frame, and orbit error directly affects the altimeter measurement. Orbit error remains a major component in the error budget of all past and present altimeter missions. For example, inconsistencies in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) used to produce the precision orbits at different times cause systematic inconsistencies to appear in the multimission time-frame between TOPEX and Jason-1, and can affect the intermission calibration of these data. In an effort to adhere to cross mission consistency, we have generated the full time series of orbits for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP), Jason-1, and OSTM based on recent improvements in the satellite force models, reference systems, and modeling strategies. The recent release of the entire revised Jason-1 Geophysical Data Records, and recalibration of the microwave radiometer correction also require the further re-examination of inter-mission consistency issues. Here we present an assessment of these recent improvements to the accuracy of the 17 -year sea surface height time series, and evaluate the subsequent impact on global and regional mean sea level estimates.

Beckley, Brian D.↗

Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART)

This report contains key findings from a project titled Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART), which was carried out through a collaborative effort of a team of researchers from Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station, Temple University, and Quanta Technology, LLC. The in-kind support came from OSIsoft (acquired by AVEVA), which provided their PI Historian software to demonstrate the use case of streaming PMU data. The first section of the report describes the project goals and objectives related to the development of Machine Learning (ML) models capable of detecting and classifying events by processing phasor measurements captured in the field by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). The data for this study was contributed by the utilities/ISOs from the Western and Eastern interconnects and ERCOT, further referred to as Interconnect B (IC B), Interconnect A (IC A), and Interconnect C (IC C), respectively. The approach that the BDSMART Research Team proposed and the key research tasks defined by the team are outlined in this section. The next section describes the technical approach. We first discuss the data constraints related to the PMU measurements and data interpretation constraints imposed by the data contributors. They provided neither the topological information of the grid nor PMU placement locations and captured recorded data at very few locations in the system with the reporting rate of either 30 or 60 fps. The recordings are mostly positive sequence voltage, frequency, and ROCOF, and in some limited cases, three-phase voltages and currents. We then reflect on the bad data issues that stem from poor recording practices and vague definitions of the PMU status bits to supposedly be used for bad data identification. Finally, the data discovery points to imprecise time stamps with incomplete event start/end time, as well as inconsistent and incomplete event labeling, which combined make the implementation of the data models using supervising learning quite challenging. Following the data discovery study, we hypothesize that because the IC B data has the most complete labels, we should focus our model development on that data and then test it on data from other interconnects. We also define the common metrics used to evaluate the results from the ML algorithm tests. We concluded this section by summarizing the common ML models we used and explaining how we implemented and tested them. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training Dataset Report from this project. The final section of this report deals with the accomplishments and conclusions. As the accomplishments, we formulate the problem we are solving and what is achieved by solving the problem. We then reflect on each of the analytics tools we developed and point out the performance of each tool when applied to solving the mentioned problems. We reference this work for further details to the papers we published on each tool. In the conclusions, we give recommendations on how to improve future PMU recording practices to facilitate the ML algorithm implementation and guidance for the future standardization work aimed at clarifying the ambiguities associated with the PMU status bits. We finally list future tasks that can bring about further improvements in the proposed algorithms. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training, and Test Dataset Report filed at the project completion date.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗