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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed graph neural networks for predicting cetane number with systematic data quality analysis

Designing alternative fuels for advanced compression ignition engines necessitates a predictive model for cetane number (CN). In this study, the physics-informed graph neural networks are introduced for a reliable CN prediction by considering molecular features pertinent to the physical properties of molecules that affect CN. The reliability of measured data is another key factor to consider for improving the predictive model. Various experimental instruments for measuring CN exist, including standard and non-standard methods. In this regard, a systematic data quality analysis was carried out for the total 630 CNs collected from literature and new measurements in this study using Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA). The results from this data curation process were reflected in the model by imposing lower sample weights on the data coming from less reliable measurement techniques. This approach effectively maximized the prediction accuracy while incorporating data from all available sources. Using the sample weights decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) up to 0.8 CN units. The accuracy was also improved by introducing the CN-related physical properties (the number of hydrogen bond donors and acceptors); the test set MAE is 5.74 and 7.01 for the model with and without such properties, respectively. Investigating molecular structural effects on CN was also carried out to gain chemical insights into factors used to design new fuel candidates. The dimensionality reduction analysis of feature vectors showed a clear clustering in terms of functional groups and CN and the structural effect derived from the model was consistent with the physicochemical insights. Finally, this physics-informed model and data curation would be helpful for accurate CN prediction and inform rational fuel design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Simulation of Lithium Carbonate Reactive Vapor–Liquid Equilibria Using a Deep Potential Model

We developed a first-principles machine learning model for the reactive vapor–liquid phase behavior of molten Li 2 CO 3 . The model was trained on ab initio electronic density functional theory data using the Deep Potential (DP) methodology, and its accuracy was evaluated by comparing model predictions of density and viscosity to experimental measurements. Direct coexistence simulations with the DP model over time scales of tens of nanoseconds were used to observe equilibrium dissociation of Li 2 CO 3 into CO 2 residing primarily in the vapor phase and Li 2 O which remains dissolved in the liquid. The simulations covered a range of temperatures, overall system sizes, and vapor-to-liquid volume ratios. Results were analyzed in terms of the observed chemical composition of the liquid and vapor phases, product structure, and CO 2 partial pressures. In addition, we calculated equilibrium constants for the dissociation reaction by assuming ideal-solution behavior for the liquid. As expected on the basis of thermodynamic arguments and prior experiments for this system, the observed partial pressure of CO 2 in the gas phase depends on both the temperature and the ratio of vapor to liquid volumes, while the calculated equilibrium constants only depend on temperature. DP model predictions for the equilibrium constant of the reaction are generally consistent with the available experimental measurements. Furthermore, the present study establishes the validity of the DP methodology for the description of reactive, multiphase equilibria from first principles, with possible applications to many other systems of scientific and technological interest even in the absence of relevant experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automotive Silicon Carbide Power Module Cooling With A Novel Modular Manifold And Embedded Heat Sink

The next generation of integrated power electronics packages will implement wide-bandgap devices with ultrahigh device heat fluxes. Although jet impingement has received attention for power electronics thermal management, it is not used in commercial electric vehicles (EVs) because of the associated pressure drop and reliability concerns. Here, in this paper, we present a modular thermal management system designed for automotive power electronics. The system achieves superior thermal performance to benchmarked EVs, while adhering to reliability standards and with low pumping power. The system utilizes a low-cost and lightweight plastic manifold to generate jets over an optimized heat sink, which is embedded in the direct-bonded-copper (DBC) substrate. The embedded heat sink concept leverages additive manufacturing to add elliptical pin fins to the DBC substrate. The heat sink geometry is optimized for submerged jet impingement using a unit-cell model and an exhaustive search algorithm. The model predictions are validated using unit-cell experiments. A full-scale power module model is then used to compare the DBC-embedded heat sink against direct DBC cooling and baseplate-integrated heat sinks for single-sided (SS) and double-sided (DS) cooling concepts. Using the SS and DS DBC-embedded cooling concepts, the models predict a thermal resistance that represents a reduction of 75% and 85% compared to the 2015 BMW i3, respectively, for the same water-ethylene glycol inverter flow rate. We have shown that an inverter with a 100-kilo-Watt-per-liter power density is achievable with the proposed design.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction

The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structural stability of thin overhanging walls during material extrusion additive manufacturing of thermoset-based ink

Recent developments have enabled material extrusion additive manufacturing of thermoset-based composite inks on the large scale. In addition, printing out-of-plane components is of broad interest to the polymer material extrusion community. Here, we address some of the challenges associated with both large-scale and out-of-plane thermoset material extrusion additive manufacturing by studying the height at which thin overhanging walls collapse. Walls at a range of overhang angles were printed until they collapsed. An optical camera captured the profile of each wall throughout the print, allowing the collapse height to be identified and the geometric fidelity to the programmed angle to be evaluated. Using previously measured rheological properties, predictive models were generated to approximate the collapse height and profile of the deflected walls. First, an analytical model was created to predict the height at which the walls would yield. The analytical model assumes the walls exhibit a perfectly linear profile; however, experiments proved this assumption to be false. Therefore, a finite element simulation was developed to account for the elastic deflection that occurs during printing. The finite element simulation predicts both the yield height and the deflected profile after the deposition of each layer. For the properties of the thermoset ink used here, the yield height predicted by the analytical model and finite element simulation are virtually identical. These predictions match experimental data reasonably well, but minor errors are observed. Accounting for the fully plastic moment appears to explain the small mismatch between experimental data and predictions. Additionally, the finite element simulation provides an excellent prediction of the deflected profile before the wall begins to collapse. Finally, by demonstrating that the collapse height and deflected profile of thin overhanging walls can be predicted, this work illustrates how the soft viscoelastic properties of thermoset-based composite inks limit the scale of a key feature required to print some nonplanar components. It also provides a basis to tailor in-process curing systems to suppress deflection and collapse of thin overhanging walls.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Scoping Study to Develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics Based Model to Predict Radiological Materials Packaging Temperatures within a Generic Staging Building

The objective of this work is to perform computational fluid dynamics simulations of a ventilated radiological-material-package staging building to determine the effect of including or excluding a variety of physical effects and computational methods on both the predicted package temperatures and required computational resources. The generic building contains 640 drum-packages containing heat-generating, radiological material supported on four racks that are eight levels tall. Additionally, there is a forced ventilation system, lighting, and insulated walls. Computational models were constructed that included or excluded (a) shelving, (b) effects of unsteadiness, and (c) radiation heat transfer. Simulations with each drum modeled separately were compared to simpler simulations with sets of four drums represented by an equivalent box-package. These models employed between 106 to 107 elements. Steady state simulations predicted package temperatures that were within 0.1°C of simulations that included transient effects and required only one-eighth the computational resources. Calculations that excluded shelving predicted temperatures within 0.6°C of simulations that included shelving and required one-fourth the computational resources. Excluding radiation heat transfer systematically increased temperatures by around 1.5°C but reduced computational resources by a factor of four. The box-package model reduced the computational resources by a factor of 3, but systematically predicted higher temperatures by around 1.1°C. These results will be used to develop an efficient computational fluid dynamics model to assess the ability of different staging building designs to prevent the temperature of package components from exceeding specified limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of Fission Product Concentration Profiles in AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Graphitic Matrix and Nuclear Graphites

The third Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiment, AGR-3/4, was designed to investigate the migration of fission products in fuel compact graphitic matrix and reactor graphite components. Using destructive methods, radial fission product concentration profiles were measured for gamma-emitting fission products (e.g., Ag-110m, Cs-134, and Eu-154) and beta-emitting Sr-90 in irradiated graphitic and graphite components from six different AGR-3/4 irradiation capsules. These new measured concentration profiles can now be compared to non-destructive measurements and fission product transport simulations and will be used to derive new diffusivities and sorptivities to support refinement of fission product transport models and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) source-term analyses. Each capsule in the AGR-3/4 experiment had four fuel compacts in the middle of two concentric rings of graphitic matrix material, PCEA graphite, or IG-110 graphite. In addition to the approximately 1898 tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles in each compact, there were 20 designed to fail (DTF) particles coated only in pyrocarbon so that they released fission products into the surrounding cylindrical rings of carbonaceous materials. Destructive sampling of the rings involved machining/milling material from around the circumference of the rings, collecting that material, and performing radiochemical analyses on it. Milling operations were performed in multiple steps or segments, and each segment was generally 0.508 mm (0.020 in) thick. Knowing the radial position at which each segment was milled, the volume of the milled material at each segment, and the fission product content in each segment, the radial fission product concentrations were constructed for select isotopes in each ring. Ag-110m profiles had the most variation. Some profiles were peaked at an inner or outer surface. Some were peaked at the middle of the ring wall thickness. Some increased radially outward, and some decreased radially outward. These types of variations and the fact that the measured profiles do not generally compare favorably with the transport model employed for AGR-3/4 may adversely impact the ability to extract reasonable transport parameters for this isotope. In many cases, the Cs-134 profiles decreased somewhat linearly in the outward radial direction, and in cursory comparisons, the shapes of these profiles appeared similar to those from model predictions. The step changes in concentration across the inner-outer ring gap were generally consistent with the model predictions as well. In some cases, there were local maxima in concentration at the outer surface of the rings. This suggests that fission products could have transported in the small gaps between the inner ring and the outer ring and between the outer ring and the sink ring such that some portion of a given fission product can bypass diffusion through the ring itself. The analysis of the small nubs on the outer surfaces of some of the outer rings revealed fission product concentrations in the nubs that were often higher than in the outermost segments of the rings. This further supports the hypothesis that short-circuit, gap transport occurred, causing relatively high surface concentrations on the outer surfaces of the rings. Eu-154 and Sr-90 profiles tend to have very similar shapes, suggesting that they transport via the same mechanisms. The observed profiles were indicative of a transport process where the isotopes are sorbed on the inner surface of the ring, but diffusion into the ring from that surface is quite slow. Some elevated concentrations of Sr-90 (relative to Eu-154) on the outer surface of a ring suggested that rapid, gas-gap transport of gaseous precursor Kr-90 and volatile Rb-90 could have occurred prior to their decaying to Sr-90. Overall, the Eu 154 and Sr-90 profiles were still very similar, which indicates that the transport of short-lived Sr-90 precursors is not a major effect. In some capsules, the qualitative Sr-90 behavior across the ring gaps was consistent with the model (using the available legacy Sr-90 transport parameters), but in other capsules the model was inconsistent with the measurements and seems to underestimate the amount of Sr-90 in the outer rings. The total ring Sr-90 inventories were estimated for all the rings that were subject to physical sampling. These results will be used to adjust the predicted particle and/or compact releases used in the AGR-3/4 fission product transport model. Given the different irradiation temperatures among the capsules and the rings, it was not possible to discern fundamental differences in the transport of isotopes within the different carbon materials, i.e., graphitic matrix, IG-110, or PCEA. It may be possible to do this in the course of determining transport from the concentration profiles in future work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-specific Cloud Vertical Overlap Characteristics from Radar and Lidar Observations at the ARM sites

Climate and numerical weather prediction models require assumptions to represent the vertical distribution of subgrid-scale clouds, which have radiative transfer implications. In this study, nearly 25 years of ground-based radar and lidar observations of vertical cloud profiles at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are utilized to derive cloud vertical overlap characteristics from the Cloud Type (CLDTYPE) data product. Here, the cloud vertical overlap characteristics are further separated by cloud regime by considering seven cloud types (i.e., low cloud, congestus, deep convection, altocumulus, altostratus, cirrostratus, and cirrus) as well as periods of shallow cumulus. The decorrelation length scale (i.e., exponential transition from maximum to random overlap with layer separation) is found to vary by cloud regime, ranging between 0.04 km for cirrostratus paired with cirrus to 4.58 km for low cloud paired with cirrus at SGP. Cloud vertical overlap characteristics are also considered for other ARM sites including the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) sites amongst other shorter term ARM deployments globally. The decorrelation length scale ranged globally from 1.03 km in the Arctic Ocean to 3.06 km in Manacapuru, Brazil. Globally, the decorrelation length scale by cloud regime exhibited similarities (e.g., for cirrus paired with cirrus) and differences (e.g., congestus paired with cirrus). The results could help inform development of cloud vertical overlap assumptions within operational numerical weather prediction models and potentially improve prediction of radiative fluxes for weather, climate, and renewable energy forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting a Sharp Decline in Selectivity for Catalytic Esterification of Alcohols from van der Waals Interactions

Controlling the selectivity of catalytic reactions is a critical aspect of improving energy efficiency in the chemical industry; thus, predictive models are of key importance. Herein the performance of a heterogeneous, nanoporous Au catalyst is predicted for the complex catalytic self-coupling of the series of C 2 -C 4 alkyl alcohols, based solely on the known kinetics of the elementary steps of the catalytic cycle for methanol coupling, using scaling methods augmented by density functional theory. Notably, a sharp decrease in selectivity for ester formation with increasing molecular weight to favor the aldehyde due to van der Waals interactions of reaction intermediates with the surface was predicted and subsequently verified quantitatively by experiment. Furthermore, the agreement between theory and experiment clearly demonstrates the efficacy of this approach for building a predictive model of catalytic behavior for a homologous set of reactants using a small set of experimental information.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting a Sharp Decline in Selectivity for Catalytic Esterification of Alcohols from van der Waals Interactions

Controlling the selectivity of catalytic reactions is a critical aspect of improving energy efficiency in the chemical industry; thus, predictive models are of key importance. Herein the performance of a heterogeneous, nanoporous Au catalyst is predicted for the complex catalytic self-coupling of the series of C 2 –C 4 alkyl alcohols, based solely on the known kinetics of the elementary steps of the catalytic cycle for methanol coupling, using scaling methods augmented by density functional theory. Notably, a sharp decrease in selectivity for ester formation with increasing molecular weight to favor the aldehyde due to van der Waals interactions of reaction intermediates with the surface was predicted and subsequently verified quantitatively by experiment. Further, the agreement between theory and experiment clearly demonstrates the efficacy of this approach for building a predictive model of catalytic behavior for a homologous set of reactants using a small set of experimental information.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Temperature Dependence of Pu(IV) Absorbance Spectra for Advanced Online Monitoring of Nuclear Processes

This article presents a systematic study of Pu(IV) absorbance spectral features as a function of temperature to develop an understanding of this parameter’s effect on chemometric models that can be used as online monitoring tools to support nuclear processing. The descriptive and predictive models that provide real-time feedback of these processes are usually constructed with data collected in conditions typical of a laboratory environment, which can differ drastically from a processing environment. To assess the impact of temperature on Pu(IV) absorbance spectra, 11 samples of Pu(IV) were synthesized with varying HNO 3 concentrations ranging from 0.6 to 9.5 M and heated between 15 and 45 °C. Ultraviolet (UV)–visible (vis)–near-infrared (NIR) absorption spectra collected at different HNO 3 concentrations and temperatures revealed that features associated with Pu(IV) are sensitive to temperature at all HNO 3 concentrations and that changes in features depend on HNO 3 concentration. The contributions of temperature and HNO 3 concentration to variation in Pu(IV) spectral features were evaluated using the principal component analysis of spectra that were baseline-corrected with an asymmetric least-squares method. Furthermore, predictive modeling for HNO 3 concentration with partial least-squares regression of UV–vis–NIR spectra highlighted the importance of accounting for temperature in the calibration set to optimize model performance. This methodology constitutes a new, systematic approach to account for the effect of temperature on the absorption spectra of metal ions and is useful for process monitoring applications in many industries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A search for dark matter produced in association with a dark Higgs boson decaying into a Higgs boson pair in 3b or 4b final states using pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is performed for dark matter particles produced in association with a resonant pair of Higgs bosons using 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. This signature is expected in some extensions of the Standard Model predicting the production of dark matter particles, and is interpreted in terms of a dark Higgs model containing a Z′ mediator in which the dark Higgs boson s decays into a pair of Higgs bosons. The dark Higgs boson is reconstructed through final states with at least three b-tagged jets, produced by the pair of Higgs boson decays, in events with significant missing transverse momentum consistent with the presence of dark matter. The observed data are found to be in good agreement with Standard Model predictions, constraining scenarios with dark Higgs boson masses within the range of 250 to 400 GeV and Z′ mediators up to 2.3 TeV.

Dark Energy and Dark Matter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Occupant Preference-Aware Load Scheduling for Resilient Communities

The load scheduling of resilient communities in the islanded mode is subject to many uncertainties such as weather forecast errors and occupant behavior stochasticity. To date, it remains unclear how occupant preferences affect the effectiveness of the load scheduling of resilient communities. This paper proposes an occupant thermal preference-aware load scheduler for resilient communities operating in the islanded mode. First, key resilience indicators are selected to quantify its impacts on the load scheduling of a resilient community. A deterministic model predictive control-based load scheduling framework is adopted as the baseline. Then, a chance-constrained controller is proposed to address the occupant-induced uncertainty in room temperature setpoints. Finally, the chance-constrained controller is compared with the deterministic controller on a virtual community testbed based on a real-world net-zero energy community in Florida, U.S. Results have shown that the proposed chance-constrained controller performs better in terms of serving occupants’ thermal preference and the required battery sizes compared to the deterministic controller with the presence of the assumed stochastic occupant behavior. This work indicates that it is necessary to consider the stochasticity of the occupant behavior when designing optimal load schedulers for resilient communities.

Wang, Jing↗