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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Graph neural networks for efficient learning of mechanical properties of polycrystals

Herein we present graph neural networks (GNNs) as an efficient and accurate machine learning approach to predict mechanical properties of polycrystalline materials. Here, a GNN was developed based on graph representation of polycrystals incorporating only fundamental features of grains including their crystallographic orientation, size, and grain neighbor connectivity information. We tested our method on modeling stiffness and yield strength of α -Ti microstructures, varying in their crystallographic texture. We find the GNN predicts both properties with high accuracy with mean relative errors of ~1% for unseen microstructures from a given set of textures and < 2% for microstructures of unseen texture, even when presented with limited training data. This accuracy is comparable to methods that require high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) microstructure data, such as 3D convolutional neural networks (3D-CNNs) and models that depend on the computation of spatial statistics. The present results show that graph-based deep learning is a promising framework for property prediction, especially considering the high cost associated with obtaining high-resolution 3D microstructure data and the general scarcity of experimental materials datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comparison of deep-learning-based inpainting techniques for experimental X-ray scattering

The implementation is proposed of image inpainting techniques for the reconstruction of gaps in experimental X-ray scattering data. The proposed methods use deep learning neural network architectures, such as convolutional autoencoders, tunable U-Nets, partial convolution neural networks and mixed-scale dense networks, to reconstruct the missing information in experimental scattering images. In particular, the recovered pixel intensities are evaluated against their corresponding ground-truth values using the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient metrics. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve better performance than traditional inpainting algorithms such as biharmonic functions. Overall, tunable U-Net and mixed-scale dense network architectures achieved the best reconstruction performance among all the tested algorithms, with correlation coefficient scores greater than 0.9980.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved departure from nucleate boiling prediction in rod bundles using a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework

The critical heat flux (CHF) corresponding to the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) crisis is a regulatory limit for the licensing of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) worldwide. Despite the abundance of predictive tools available to the reactor thermal-hydraulics community, the path for an accurate CHF model remains elusive. This work approaches the prediction of DNB through a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework (PIMLAF) with the objective of achieving superior predictive capabilities for a rod bundle. In view of the limitations in existing macro-scale physics-driven tools, an improved mechanistic model is first proposed, leveraging key concepts in the liquid sublayer dryout and bubble crowding mechanisms. Furthermore, the proposed mechanistic model is able to predict DNB in different heater geometries for a broad range of flow conditions without the need for recalibration. This model is then incorporated as the physics-informed component of the hybrid framework PIMLAF, which takes advantage of established understanding in the field (i.e., domain knowledge [DK]) and uses machine learning (ML) to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch between the actual and DK-predicted output. Two bundle-related case studies using the PWR subchannel and bundle tests (PSBT) database are carried out to illustrate the PIMLAF’s improved performance over traditional approaches for both interpolation and extrapolation purposes. In light of the PIMLAF’s promising potential to reduce prediction error, reactor vendors are encouraged to leverage their in-house experimental efforts and apply the hybrid framework to potentially achieve margin reductions in the minimum DNB ratio (MDNBR) for the designs of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Koopman learning of nonlinear time-varying systems

Here this paper presents a data-driven approach to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear time-varying system (NTVS) by a linear time-varying system (LTVS), which results from the Koopman operator and deep neural networks. Analysis of the approximation error between states of the NTVS and the resulting LTVS is presented. Simulations on a representative NTVS show that the proposed method achieves small approximation errors, even when the system changes rapidly. Furthermore, simulations in an example of quadcopters demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gold-Standard Chemical Database 137 (GSCDB137): A Diverse Set of Accurate Energy Differences for Assessing and Developing Density Functionals

We present GSCDB137, a rigorously curated benchmark library of 137 data sets (8377 entries) covering main-group and transition-metal reaction energies and barrier heights, (intra- and intermolecular) noncovalent interactions, dipole moments, polarizabilities, electric-field response energies, and vibrational frequencies. Legacy data from GMTKN55 and MGCDB84 have been updated to today's best reference values; redundant or low-quality points were removed, and many new, property-focused sets were added. Testing 29 popular density functional approximations (DFAs) confirms the expected Jacob's-ladder hierarchy overall but also reveals notable exceptions: functional performance for frequencies and electric-field properties correlates poorly with that for other ground-state energetics. ωB97M-V and ωB97X-V are the most balanced hybrid meta-GGA and hybrid GGA, respectively; B97M-V and revPBE-D4 lead the meta-GGA and GGA classes. Double hybrids lower mean errors by about 30% versus their hybrid analogues but demand careful frozen-core, basis set, and spin contamination treatment. GSCDB137 offers a comprehensive, openly documented platform for rigorous validation of DFA and universal machine learning potentials, and training of the next generation of exchange-correlation functionals.

Liang, Jiashu [University of California, Berkeley,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process damping identification using Bayesian learning and time domain simulation

Process damping can provide improved machining productivity by increasing the stability limit at low spindle speeds. However, existing methods for identifying process damping models experimentally require specialized setups and/or multiple cutting tests. While the phenomenon is well known, the modeling challenges limit pre-process parameter selection that leverages the potential increases in material removal rates. This paper proposes a physics-informed Bayesian method that can identify the cutting force and process damping models from a limited set of test cuts without requiring direct measurements of cutting force or vibration. The method uses time domain simulation to incorporate process damping and provide a basis for test selection. Here, new strategies for efficient sampling and dimensionality reduction are applied to lower computation time and minimize the effect of model error. The proposed method is demonstrated and the identified cutting and damping force coefficients are compared to values obtained using machining tests and least-squares fitting.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum error mitigation by hidden inverses protocol in superconducting quantum devices

We present a method to improve the convergence of variational algorithms based on hidden inverses (HIs) to mitigate coherent errors. In the context of error mitigation, this means replacing the hardware implementation of certain Hermitian gates with their inverses. Doing so results in noise cancellation and a more resilient quantum circuit. This approach improves performance in a variety of two-qubit error models where the noise operator also inverts with the gate inversion. We apply the mitigation scheme on superconducting quantum processors running the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm to find the H 2 ground-state energy. When implemented on superconducting hardware we find that the mitigation scheme effectively reduces the energy fluctuations in the parameter learning path in VQE, reducing the number of iterations for a converged value. We also provide a detailed numerical simulation of VQE performance under different noise models and explore how HIs and randomized compiling affect the underlying loss landscape of the learning problem. These simulations help explain our experimental hardware outcomes, helping to connect lower-level gate performance to application-specific behavior in contrast to metrics like fidelity which often do not provide an intuitive insight into observed high level performance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Price Taker: Conceptual Design and Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Market Surrogates

Future electricity generation systems must be optimized to provide flexibility that counteracts the variability of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources and ensures the reliability and safety of critical infrastructure, including the electric grid. The current state-of-the-art is to co-optimize the design and operation of integrated energy systems (IES) treating historical or predicted time-series electricity prices as fixed parameters. Recent literature has shown the limitations of this price taker assumption, which neglects how IES optimization decisions influence market outcomes. As such, this paper proposes a new optimization formulation that uses machine learning surrogate models, trained from a library of annual market operation simulations, to embed IES market interactions into the co-optimization problem directly. Using a thermal generator example built in the open-source IDAES computational environment, we show that the price taker approach routinely over-predicts annual revenues by 8% or more compared to a validation simulation, where the proposed approach has a typical relative error of 1% or less.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI‐Driven Robot Enables Synthesis‐Property Relation Prediction for Metal Halide Perovskites in Humid Atmosphere

Materials Acceleration Platforms (MAPs) – also known as self-driving laboratories– present a new paradigm for materials science and promise an order of magnitude accelerated materials discovery compared to the traditional trial-and-error approach. Metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are an emerging class of materials for optoelectronic applications but are plagued by irreproducible optoelectronic quality, particularly for films fabricated in a humid atmosphere. Here, in this work, a machine learning (ML)-guided closed-loop platform is developed with a multimodal data fusion approach to predict synthesis–property relations for the optical quality of MHP thin films in relative humidities (RHs) ranging from 5–55%. The efficiency of this approach is confirmed by the fast-dropping learning rate to 2% after experimentally sampling less than 1% of the possible 5,000+ combinations. The prediction of synthesis–property relations is done by optical and imaging characterizations. In situ photoluminescence characterization revealed the origin of thin film quality variation at different RH. These insights provide an avenue for controlling the MHP crystallization by fine-tuning the synthesis parameters and RH for a given chemistry, thus lifting the need for stringent atmosphere control. The MAP enables an accelerated screening and understanding of the synthesis design space, facilitating rational synthesis recipe choice for a wide range of materials.

AI-driven robot↗