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Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought

Abstract Structural diversity is an emerging dimension of biodiversity that accounts for size variations in organs among individuals in a community. Previous studies show significant effects of structural diversity on forest growth, but its effects on forest mortality are not known, particularly at a large scale. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified structural diversity using stem structural diversity (SSD) based on both tree diameter and height. We obtained U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from over 2400 plots across southcentral U.S. forests that have suffered a recent drought. Using data from multiple sampling times, we calculated SSD and compared the relative importance of SSD, species diversity, functional diversity and other stand attributes in determining tree mortalities caused by fire, insects and diseases. We also used FIRETEC, a physics‐based fire model, to test the effect of SSD on canopy consumption by fire. Our results showed that (1) SSD was positively associated with tree mortalities caused by all three disturbances; (2) species richness was negatively associated with insect‐ and disease‐caused mortalities; (3) functional diversity was negatively associated with fire‐ and disease‐caused mortalities and (4) more phylogenetically related species had more similar mortality rates by insect and disease but not fire. Moreover, the FIRETEC model showed increasing canopy consumption by fire in stands with greater SSD. Together, the different tree mortalities during drought associated with SSD more consistently than the other biodiversity metrics were evaluated. Synthesis . Our results suggest that SSD could be considered in modelling forest dynamics and planning management to sustain forest health under disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generic Crystalline Disposal Reference Case

A generic reference case for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rock is outlined. The generic cases are intended to support development of disposal system modeling capability by establishing relevant baseline conditions and parameters. Establishment of a generic reference case requires that the emplacement concept, waste inventory, waste form, waste package, backfill/buffer properties, EBS failure scenarios, host rock properties, and biosphere be specified. The focus in this report is on those elements that are unique to crystalline disposal, especially the geosphere representation. Three emplacement concepts are suggested for further analyses: a waste packages containing 4 PWR assemblies emplaced in boreholes in the floors of tunnels (KBS-3 concept), a 12-assembly waste package emplaced in tunnels, and a 32-assembly dual purpose canister emplaced in tunnels. In addition, three failure scenarios were suggested for future use: a nominal scenario involving corrosion of the waste package in the tunnel emplacement concepts, a manufacturing defect scenario applicable to the KBS-3 concept, and a disruptive glaciation scenario applicable to both emplacement concepts. The computational approaches required to analyze EBS failure and transport processes in a crystalline rock repository are similar to those of argillite/shale, with the most significant difference being that the EBS in a crystalline rock repository will likely experience highly heterogeneous flow rates, which should be represented in the model. The computational approaches required to analyze radionuclide transport in the natural system are very different because of the highly channelized nature of fracture flow. Computational workflows tailored to crystalline rock based on discrete transport pathways extracted from discrete fracture network models are recommended.

Environmental Protection↗

Chemical Processes for Recovery of High Purity 234 U from Aged 238 PU

Purified 234 U (2.46E5 a) is an important radioisotope for commercial customers, and since the 1980s, the United States has experienced a market demand of 2–6 g per year. Purified 234 U is most efficiently recovered as a decay daughter from aged 238 Pu (87.7 a). Ever since the last recovery of tens of grams of 234 U by Monsanto Co.’s Mound Laboratory in 1980s, the DOE inventory of 234 U for US market decreased steadily. In 2016–2018, the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) carried out a campaign to recover 234 U from 16 spent Pu–Be neutron sources. A total 66.5 g of high purity 234 U of high isotopic abundance (>99.3%) was recovered in two phases of the campaign with selected chemical processes. Recovery of 234 U from aged 238 Pu commonly involves four major steps: (1) bulk plutonium removal from the matrix, (2) continued separation of plutonium from the matrix, (3) purification of 234 U from all other impurities, and (4) conversion of purified 234 U into a final product form, 234 U 3 O 8 . The first three steps are the key to ensuring the purity of the 234 U product. Historically, various chemical processes have been applied for uranium processing of these three steps, although on different scales or with different purity requirements. Because of the higher purity requirements specified for this order of 234 U product, the selected processing methods used in this campaign relied on a cyclical anion exchange process with MP-1 resins followed by uranium peroxide process to achieve the purified product. Process details will be compared with other options, and advantages and drawbacks will also be discussed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Benefits of a Single-Person Spacecraft for Weightless Operations

Historically, less than 20 percent of crew time related to extravehicular activity (EVA) is spent on productive external work. For planetary operations space suits are still the logical choice; however for safe and rapid access to the weightless environment, spacecraft offer compelling advantages. FlexCraft, a concept for a single-person spacecraft, enables any-time access to space for short or long excursions by different astronauts. For the International Space Station (ISS), going outside is time-consuming, requiring pre-breathing, donning a fitted space suit, and pumping down an airlock. For each ISS EVA this is between 12.5 and 16 hours. FlexCraft provides immediate access to space because it operates with the same cabin atmosphere as its host. Furthermore, compared to the space suit pure oxygen environment, a mixed gas atmosphere lowers the fire risk and allows use of conventional materials and systems. For getting to the worksite, integral propulsion replaces hand-over-hand translation or having another crew member operate the robotic arm. This means less physical exertion and more time at the work site. Possibly more important, in case of an emergency, FlexCraft can return from the most distant point on ISS in less than a minute. The one-size-fits-all FlexCraft means no on-orbit inventory of parts or crew time required to fit all astronauts. With a shirtsleeve cockpit, conventional displays and controls are used, there is no suit trauma and because the work is not strenuous, no rest days are required. Furthermore, there is no need to collect hand tools because manipulators are equipped with force multiplying end-effectors that can deliver the precise torque for the job. FlexCraft is an efficient solution for asteroid exploration allowing all crew to use one vehicle with no risk of contamination. And, because FlexCraft is a vehicle, its design offers better radiation and micro-meteoroid protection than space suits.

Griffin, Brand Norman↗

A Comparison of GoldSim, RESRAD-Onsite, and NORMALYSA Modeling Tools at Radioactive Waste Sites - 19480

Radioactive waste disposal and associated decision making is a challenging problem around the world. A strong performance assessment model plays a crucial role in making good management and remediation decisions and in optimizing the performance of a site. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) MODARIA II Working Group 1 (WG1) is comparing the performance of various modeling platforms used at Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM) and legacy waste sites to support risk-informed decision making. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed probabilistic performance assessment models using the GoldSim system modeling software at a variety of radioactive waste sites. This paper presents a comparison between GoldSim and two other tools used to evaluate radiation exposure and their associated risks: the NORM And Legacy Site Assessment (NORMALYSA) tool used to assess risk at the Zapadnoe mill tailings site, and the residual radioactivity (RESRAD-Onsite) computer program used to calculate Authorized Limits at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supported development of NORMALYSA based off of Ecolego 6.0, in which the user connects several universal modules, representing various environmental transport and exposure pathways, and enters in site-specific data. Further work with NORMALYSA has continued under the MODARIA II WG 1. A radionuclide transport and dose calculation model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site at the Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant in the Ukraine has been configured by MODARIA II WG1 to test the capabilities of NORMALYSA. Under this test case, contaminant transport and effective dose calculations were performed for two exposure scenarios. The onsite worker is exposed via external ground irradiation and radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The offsite resident defines a residence established 300 years after institutional control has ended, 800 meters downstream from the site with exposure pathways including: ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from the Konoplyanka River and agricultural activities in the contaminated garden. GoldSim modeling software is a dynamic probabilistic modeling platform that evaluates uncertainty in a robust and transparent manner. Although GoldSim provides contaminant and radionuclide transport modules to facilitate integrated modeling of radionuclide migration in the environment, these features are not embedded in an existing modeling framework, except as created by the user. Neptune developed a GoldSim model for the two exposure scenarios of the Zapadnoe test case. Neptune's Generic PA Model was used as a starting point for the Zapadnoe site. Input parameters for the GoldSim model include site-specific parameters from the MODARIA Working Group as well as parameters from the Generic PA Model and other PA models created by Neptune. For the other comparison, Version 7.0 of RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was used to calculate Authorized Limits for LANL. Authorized Limits are concentrations of radionuclides in soil that support the evaluation process to clear land for release under different uses. The RESRAD-Onsite computer code was used to calculate Authorized Limits because this program was specifically designed to derive radionuclide soil guidelines corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The scope of the RESRAD dose or risk evaluation is constrained to the transport and exposure pathways that have been included in the computer code. To assist in illustrating the capability of GoldSim modeling software, a GoldSim model was created to replicate the calculation of LANL's Authorized Limits for soil. The main exposure pathways in this model are inhalation of dust and gas, plant ingestion, soil ingestion, and external ground irradiation. All of the processes and outputs of RESRAD-Onsite and NORMALYSA can be created in a GoldSim model, but the value of GoldSim lies in its flexibility for application to any of a wide variety of environmental modeling problems. GoldSim allows development of site-specific inventory, transport mechanisms and risk assessment scenarios. If all potentially complete release, transport, and exposure pathways are addressed in an existing dose and risk assessment computer code, and if the code's capabilities fulfill the project modeling objectives, then expending resources to create a GoldSim model may not be necessary. Site optimization and good decision making about site management are often best when supported with the flexibility of GoldSim as a modeling tool. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Low to Extremely Low Water Abundances Measured in Nominally Anhydrous Minerals in Mafic to Granitic Apollo Rock Clasts

Lunar sample-based volatile studies have focused on assessing the inventory and distribution of water in the Moon. Some have focused on the relatively young mare basalts and pyroclastic glasses, which result from partial melting of the relatively young lunar mantle. Less certain is the water inventory for the oldest materials available, which have the greater potential to record the earliest history of volatiles in the Moon (and thus provide evidence for the "wet" vs. "dry" accretion hypotheses of the Earth-Moon system. Studies of volatiles in ancient lunar rocks have largely focused on apatite. One recent FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Radiometer) study of plagioclase reported a relatively "wet" (approximately 320 parts per million) magma for primordial ferroan anorthosites (FANs). Another, a NanoSIMS study of alkali feldspar, reported a "wet" (approximately 1 weight percentage) felsic magma, but due to the differentiation processes required for silicic magmatism in the lunar crust, predicted an essentially "dry" (less than 100 parts per million) bulk Moon. Thus, despite evidence that appears to complicate the early "dry" Moon paradigm, there is no apparent unanimity among the measurements, even those on apatite. This disparity is clearly seen by the order of magnitude different water estimates for lunar "alkali-rich suite rocks" (Fig. 1). Some of the apparent differences may be explained by recent improvements in the apatite-based water estimates that better account for relative compatibilities of OH-, Cl, and F. In the present work, we seek to expand our understanding of the volatile abundances in early formed lunar magmas, their source reservoirs, and to address the potential role that felsic magmas play on the lunar hydrogen budget over time by employing NanoSIMS analysis of nominally anhydrous minerals.

Simon, J. I.↗

Microsphere Plutonium-238 Oxide Fuel to Revolutionize New Radioisotope Power Systems and Heat Sources for Planetary Exploration

Microsphere 238PuO2 fuels have potential to provide performance and safety enhancements for future radioisotope heat and power systems (RPS) as well as enable more flexible and compact RPS designs. Improvements in RPS specific power and more flexible geometries were recently investigated by JPL and PNNL as part of a study on cryobot devices for exploring Ocean Worlds. Missions to penetrate ice and explore oceans, such as on Europa, will require RPS with high specific power within the vehicle to provide both heat and power. Such missions will be mass-constrained, and the energy required to penetrate the ice is highly dependent on cryobot size. Therefore, compact RPS geometries are needed to maximize heat and power while minimizing 238Pu inventory. Microsphere-based heat sources are an attractive way to obtain flexible geometries and high volumetric power loadings because they can fill a region of any size and shape provided fuel temperatures are kept below a threshold and launch/re-entry safety are not compromised. The sol-gel technique to produce 238PuO2 microsphere particles for heat sources has the benefit of preventing dust generation, as opposed to the current 238PuO2 powder/pellet processing method, reducing hazards in the fuel fabrication line. Microspheres can also be individually coated to enhance thermal conductivity, and/or reduce the likelihood of 238PuO2 fuel dispersal in an accident. Although PNNL has produced 238PuO2 microspheres using the sol-gel method, the application of coatings and their integrity over time has yet to be investigated. Continued R&D could demonstrate the feasibility of advanced, microspherebased heat sources and provide baseline data for planning future missions requiring new RPS with different heat source configurations.

Fleurial, Jean-Pierre↗

REGAL International Program: Analysis of experimental data for depletion code validation

The Rod-Extremity and Gadolinia AnaLysis (REGAL) Program is a joint international effort to expand the nuclide inventory experimental data for irradiated nuclear fuel, with a specific focus on addressing two challenging needs associated with the characterization of modern, high duty, nuclear fuel. The first challenge is filling the gaps in experimental nuclide inventory data for gadolinia (UO 2 –Gd 2 O 3 ) fuel rods. The huge absorption cross sections of Gd-155 and Gd-157 in the Gd dopant in these rods lead to atypical spatial self-shielding patterns and have an impact on the neutronic environment within the fuel assembly compared to regular UO 2 fuel rods. Additionally, the second challenge is investigating the impact of burnup gradients at rod extremities on fuel composition and neutron leakage, to provide relevant experimental data for assessing computational capabilities to model such impact. A benchmark has been defined as a first step in the development of best-estimate models in the preliminary phase of the experimental data evaluation. Comparison of experimental results obtained in Phase I of the program for two measured pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples, one UO 2 and one UO 2 –Gd 2 O 3 sample, with calculated results obtained with different computational tools based on the defined benchmark are presented and discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Decay heat analysis for advanced reactor spent fuel transportation and storage applications

Accurate characterization of nuclide inventories and decay heat in spent nuclear fuel is critical for ensuring its safe handling, storage, transportation, and disposal. Although extensive research has been conducted on light-water reactor fuel, advanced reactors present unique challenges due to their diverse core configurations, fuel characteristics, neutron energy spectra, and burnup levels. Building upon previous efforts that developed representative reactor core models for various advanced reactor types and fuels, this study evaluates reactor-specific decay heat characteristics. The results highlight significant variations across advanced reactor types as well as across reactor designs within the same reactor type, and they provide comparison to typical commercial light-water reactor fuel. For example, thermal-spectrum reactor fuels were observed to have an approximately 100-fold decrease in decay heat over the first decade of cooling, whereas the reduction was 10-fold for fast-spectrum reactor fuels. Mass-specific decay heat at discharge can differ by three orders of magnitude among the fast and thermal reactor systems considered. Overall, for the analyzed advanced reactor fuel, fewer than 17 nuclides account for over 99% of total decay heat at 0.5 years, and that number drops to fewer than 7 nuclides at 100 years of cooling. By quantifying reactor-specific decay heat trends and nuclide contributions, this work provides a technical basis to support the development of spent fuel management strategies for advanced reactor fuels as well as safety evaluations for storage, transportation, and long-term waste disposal.

Advanced reactors↗

The impact of dust evolution and photoevaporation on disk dispersal

Protoplanetary disks are dispersed by viscous evolution and photoevaporation in a few million years; in the interim small, sub-micron-sized dust grains must grow and form planets. The time-varying abundance of small grains in an evolving disk directly affects gas heating by far-ultraviolet (FUV) photons, while dust evolution affects photoevaporation by changing the disk opacity and resulting penetration of FUV photons in the disk. Photoevaporative flows, in turn, selectively carry small dust grains, leaving the larger particles—which decouple, from the gas—behind in the disk. We study these effects by investigating the evolution of a disk subject to viscosity, photoevaporation by EUV, FUV, and X-rays, dust evolution, and radial drift using a one-dimensional (1D) multi-fluid approach (gas + different dust grain sizes) to solve for the evolving surface density distributions. The 1D evolution is augmented by 1+1D models constructed at each epoch to obtain the instantaneous disk structure and determine photoevaporation rates. The implementation of a dust coagulation/fragmentation model results in a marginal decrease in disk lifetimes when compared to models with no dust evolution; the disk lifetime is thus found to be relatively insensitive to the evolving dust opacity. We find that photoevaporation can cause significant reductions in the gas/dust mass ratio in the planet-forming regions of the disk as it evolves, and may result in a corresponding increase in heavy element abundances relative to hydrogen. We discuss implications for theories of planetesimal formation and giant planet formation, including the formation of gas-poor giants. After gas disk dispersal, ∼3×10{sup −4} M {sub ⊙} of mass in solids typically remain, comparable to the solids inventory of our solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synthesis of Large Molecules in Cometary Ice Analogs: Physical Properties Related to Self-Assembly Processes

The combination of realistic laboratory simulations and infrared observations have revolutionized our understanding of interstellar dust and ice-the main component of comets. Since comets and carbonaceous micrometeorites may have been important sources of volatiles and carbon compounds on the early Earth, their organic composition may be related to the origin of life. Ices on grains in molecular clouds contain a variety of simple molecules. The D/H ratios of the comets Hale-Bopp and Hyakutake are consistent with a primarily interstellar ice mixture. Within the cloud and especially in the presolar nebula through the early solar system, these icy grains would have been photoprocessed by the ultraviolet producing more complex species such as hexamethylenetetramine, polyoxymethylenes, and simple keones. We reported at the 1999 Bioastronomy meeting laboratory simulations studied to identify the types of molecules which could have been generated in pre-cometary ices. Experiments were conducted by forming a realistic interstellar mixed-molecular ice (H2O, CH3OH, NH3 and CO) at approximately 10 K under high vacuum irradiated with UV light from a hydrogen plasma lamp. The gas mixture was typically 100:50:1:1, however when different ratios were used material with similar characteristics was still produced. The residue that remained after warming to room temperature was analyzed by HPLC, and by several mass spectrometric methods. This material contains a rich mixture of complex compounds with mass spectral profiles resembling those found in IDPs and meteorites. Surface tension measurements show that an amphiphilic component is also present. These species do not appear in various controls or in unphotolyzed samples. Residues from the simulations were also dispersed in aqueous media for microscopy. The organic material forms 10-40 gm diameter droplets that fluoresce at 300-450 nm under UV excitation. These droplets have a morphology and internal structure which appear strikingly similar to those produced by extracts of the Murchison meteorite. Together, these results suggest a link between organic material photochemically synthesized on the cold grains in dense, interstellar molecular clouds and compounds that may have contributed to the organic inventory of the primitive Earth. For example, the amphiphilic properties of such compounds permit self-assembly into the membranous boundary structures that required for the first forms of cellular life.

Dworkin, Jason P.↗

Expression profiles of cell-wall related genes vary broadly between two common maize inbreds during stem development

The cellular machinery for cell wall synthesis and metabolism is encoded by members of large multi-gene families. Maize is both a genetic model for grass species and a potential source of lignocellulosic biomass from crop residues. Genetic improvement of maize for its utility as a bioenergy feedstock depends on identification of the specific gene family members expressed during secondary wall development in stems. High-throughput sequencing of transcripts expressed in developing rind tissues of stem internodes provided a comprehensive inventory of cell wall-related genes in maize ( Zea mays , cultivar B73). Of 1239 of these genes, 854 were expressed among the internodes at =95 reads per 20 M, and 693 of them at =500 reads per 20 M. Grasses have cell wall compositions distinct from non-commelinid species; only one-quarter of maize cell wall-related genes expressed in stems were putatively orthologous with those of the eudicot Arabidopsis. Using a slope-metric algorithm, five distinct patterns for sub-sets of co-expressed genes were defined across a time course of stem development. For the subset of genes associated with secondary wall formation, fifteen sequence motifs were found in promoter regions. The same members of gene families were often expressed in two maize inbreds, B73 and Mo17, but levels of gene expression between them varied, with 30% of all genes exhibiting at least a 5-fold difference at any stage. Although presence-absence and copy-number variation might account for much of these differences, fold-changes of expression of a CADa and a FLA11 gene were attributed to polymorphisms in promoter response elements. Large genetic variation in maize as a species precludes the extrapolation of cell wall-related gene expression networks even from one common inbred line to another. Elucidation of genotype-specific expression patterns and their regulatory controls will be needed for association panels of inbreds and landraces to fully exploit genetic variation in maize and other bioenergy grass species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Predicting biomass of hyperdiverse and structurally complex central Amazonian forests - a virtual approach using extensive field data

Notice on corrigendum: This paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first. Old-growth forests are subject to substantial changes in structure and species composition due to the intensification of human activities, gradual climate change and extreme weather events. Trees store ca. 90 % of the total aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests and precise tree biomass estimation models are crucial for management and conservation. In the central Amazon, predicting AGB at large spatial scales is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity of successional stages, high tree species diversity and inherent variations in tree allometry and architecture. We parameterized generic AGB estimation models applicable across species and a wide range of structural and compositional variation related to species sorting into height layers as well as frequent natural disturbances. We used 727 trees (diameter at breast height ≥ 5 cm) from 101 genera and at least 135 species harvested in a contiguous forest near Manaus, Brazil. Sampling from this data set we assembled six scenarios designed to span existing gradients in floristic composition and size distribution in order to select models that best predict AGB at the landscape level across successional gradients. We found that good individual tree model fits do not necessarily translate into reliable predictions of AGB at the landscape level. When predicting AGB (dry mass) over scenarios using our different models and an available pantropical model, we observed systematic biases ranging from -31 % (pantropical) to +39 %, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of up to 130 Mg ha -1 (pantropical). Our first and second best models had both low mean biases (0.8 and 3.9 %, respectively) and RMSE (9.4 and 18.6 Mg ha -1 ) when applied over scenarios. Predicting biomass correctly at the landscape level in hyperdiverse and structurally complex tropical forests, especially allowing good performance at the margins of data availability for model construction/calibration, requires the inclusion of predictors that express inherent variations in species architecture. The model of interest should comprise the floristic composition and size-distribution variability of the target forest, implying that even generic global or pantropical biomass estimation models can lead to strong biases. Reliable biomass assessments for the Amazon basin (i.e., secondary forests) still depend on the collection of allometric data at the local/regional scale and forest inventories including species-specific attributes, which are often unavailable or estimated imprecisely in most regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Time-dependent Model for the Martian Radiation Environment

Manned space activities have been until present time limited to the near-Earth environment, most of them to low Earth orbit (LEO) scenarios, with only some of the Apollo missions targeted to the Moon. In current times most human exploration and development of space (HEDS) activities are related to the development of the International Space Station (ISS), and therefore take place in the LEO environment. A natural extension of HEDS activities will be going beyond LEO, and reach asteroids, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, the Kuiper belt and the outskirts of the Solar System. Such long journeys onboard spacecraft outside the protective umbrella of the geomagnetic field will require higher levels of protection from the radiation environment found in the deep space for both astronauts and equipment. So, it is important to have available a tool for radiation shielding which takes into account the radiation environments found all along the interplanetary space and at the different bodies encountered in the Solar System. Moreover, the radiation protection is one of the two NASA highest concerns and priorities. A tool integrating different radiation environments with shielding computation techniques especially tailored for deep space mission scenario is instrumental in view of this exigency. In view of manned missions targeted to Mars, for which radiation exposure is one of the greatest problems and challenges to be tackled, it is of fundamental importance to have available a tool which allows to know which are the particle flux and spectra at any time at any point of the Martian surface. With this goal in mind, a new model for the radiation environment to be found on the planet Mars due to Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) has been developed. Solar modulated primary particles rescaled for Mars conditions are transported within the Martian atmosphere, with temporal properties modeled with variable timescales, down to the surface, with altitude and backscattering patterns taken into account. The tool allows analysis for manned Mars landing missions, as well as planetary science studies, e.g. subsurface water and volatile inventory studies. This Mars environmental model is available through the SIREST website, a project of NASA Langley Research Center.

G De Angelis↗

Southern California Megacity CO2, CH4, and CO Flux Estimates Using Ground- and Space-Based Remote Sensing and a Lagrangian Model

We estimate the overall CO2, CH4, and CO flux from the South Coast Air Basin using an inversion that couples Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations, with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). Using TCCON data we estimate the direct net CO2 flux from the So-CAB to be 104±26 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) for the study period of July 2013–August 2016. We obtain a slightly higher estimate of 120±30 Tg CO2 yr(exp -1) using OCO-2 data. These CO2 emission estimates are on the low end of previous work. Our net CH4 (360±90 Gg CH4 y(exp -1)) flux estimate is in agreement with central values from previous top-down studies going back to 2010 (342–440 Gg CH4 yr(exp -1)). CO emissions are estimated at 487±122 Gg CO yr(exp -1), much lower than previous top-down estimates (1440 Gg CO yr(exp -1)). Given the decreasing emissions of CO, this finding is not unexpected. We perform sensitivity tests to estimate how much errors in the prior, errors in the covariance, different inversion schemes, or a coarser dynamical model influence the emission estimates. Overall, the uncertainty is estimated to be 25%, with the largest contribution from the dynamical model. Lessons learned here may help in future inversions of satellite data over urban areas.

Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON)↗

Assessing the urban carbon footprint: An overview

All cities present environmental sustainability issues, above all regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and specifically carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), that directly affect climate change. Consequently, it is very important to quantify and report their Carbon Footprint (CF) for implementing national and international policies/strategies aimed at mitigating and adapting these concerns. The Urban Carbon Footprint (UCF), indeed, has been recognized as the more valuable choice to inform, specifically, decision makers about city environmental sustainability. Several accounting systems and inventory methods have been taken into account to perform UCF, highlighting the complexity of the topic and generating very often confusion among users. In this context, the authors aim to summarize what has been done and what is going on with UCFs, trying to classify them according to some principal dimensions. Thus, they divide UFCs in two main categories namely: “spatial” or “direct”, with a limited amount of data requested, and “economic” or “life cycle based”, more or less data inclusive according to the accounting systems considered. Furthermore, they observe that there is not a “global agreed-upon protocol” yet, neither is there a specific model shared among researchers, even if some steps have been made towards this direction (Relative Carbon Footprint - RCF, Publicly Available Specification – PAS 2070 and Global Protocol for Community scale - GPC). Consequently, it is necessary to complete and standardize, in the short term, the accounting and reporting frameworks, in order to compare different UCFs for adopting shared climate strategies and actions at global level. - Highlights: •Cities present environmental sustainability issues. •GHG emissions - specifically carbon dioxide - directly affect climate change. •UCF is a tool to support policy makers towards city environmental sustainability. •There is not a “global agreed-upon protocol” to perform UFC. •There are still missing points to be considered to provide a sharing model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Molecular Inventory and Comparative Organic Profiling of A Homogenized Aggregate Sample From Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Evaluating the distribution and diversity of solvent-soluble organic molecules in extraterrestrial materials provide information about the physicochemical environments where prebiotic chemistry occurred and is essential for assessing the inventory of prebiotic compounds available to the early Earth. In this work, we conducted a comprehensive molecular characterization of solvent-soluble organic compounds in a homogenized aggregate sample (ID: OREX-800107-128) of unsorted regolith from asteroid (101955) Bennu returned by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission. Using two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with high-resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-HRMS), we identified 87 organic compounds across several molecular classes, including alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and nitrogen-, oxygen-, and sulfur-bearing species. Comparison with the organic inventory of CI (Orgueil), C2-ungrouped (Tagish Lake and Tarda), and CM2 (Murchison) carbonaceous chondrites revealed that Bennu sample OREX-800107-128 is most similar to Tagish Lake and Tarda yet compositionally distinct from all of these meteorites. This Bennu sample exhibits a relatively high abundance of low-molecular-weight aromatics (e.g., toluene), pyridine derivatives, and sulfur species such as dimethyl sulfite, consistent with episodic low-temperature aqueous alteration. The presence of these organic compounds suggests that this material experienced chemically diverse processes in the parent body conducive to complex organic synthesis, including aldol condensation reactions responsible for N- and O-bearing compounds. We also compared the molecular distributions of this Bennu sample and previously analyzed samples from (162173) Ryugu to assess potential common origins between these two carbonaceous asteroids. Bennu shows more chemically diverse and nitrogen-rich organic materials than Ryugu. While both asteroids share broadly similar primitive compositions, the observed chemical differences indicate distinct evolutionary histories within a likely common formation environment though whether Bennu and Ryugu derive from a single compositionally heterogeneous parent body or from multiple closely related progenitors remains unresolved. Further detailed comparative analyses of material from Bennu, Ryugu, and specific carbonaceous meteorites (e.g., Tagish Lake and Tarda) will provide new insights into how the N-rich molecular profile observed in Bennu samples was formed and evolved in the outer Solar System.

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