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At least 739 records · Page 41

Effects of Systematic and Random Errors on the Retrieval of Particle Microphysical Properties from Multiwavelength Lidar Measurements Using Inversion with Regularization

In this work we study the effects of systematic and random errors on the inversion of multiwavelength (MW) lidar data using the well-known regularization technique to obtain vertically resolved aerosol microphysical properties. The software implementation used here was developed at the Physics Instrumentation Center (PIC) in Troitsk (Russia) in conjunction with the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Its applicability to Raman lidar systems based on backscattering measurements at three wavelengths (355, 532 and 1064 nm) and extinction measurements at two wavelengths (355 and 532 nm) has been demonstrated widely. The systematic error sensitivity is quantified by first determining the retrieved parameters for a given set of optical input data consistent with three different sets of aerosol physical parameters. Then each optical input is perturbed by varying amounts and the inversion is repeated. Using bimodal aerosol size distributions, we find a generally linear dependence of the retrieved errors in the microphysical properties on the induced systematic errors in the optical data. For the retrievals of effective radius, number/surface/volume concentrations and fine-mode radius and volume, we find that these results are not significantly affected by the range of the constraints used in inversions. But significant sensitivity was found to the allowed range of the imaginary part of the particle refractive index. Our results also indicate that there exists an additive property for the deviations induced by the biases present in the individual optical data. This property permits the results here to be used to predict deviations in retrieved parameters when multiple input optical data are biased simultaneously as well as to study the influence of random errors on the retrievals. The above results are applied to questions regarding lidar design, in particular for the spaceborne multiwavelength lidar under consideration for the upcoming ACE mission.

vertical profiles↗

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multicriterion benefit evaluation methodology for safety enhancements in nuclear power plants and application for FLEX strategies

Here we propose a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) methodology for evaluating costs and benefits of implementing safety enhancements in nuclear power plants. The MCBE methodology establishes a comprehensive evaluation scope using multiple evaluation criteria (including public risk, occupational risk, plant revenue, and plant cost) and multiple contexts (including plant normal operations, incidents, and accidents). The MCBE methodology formulates a benefit or cost element as the product of a monetary consequence and its occurrence-likelihood change. The MCBE methodology also incorporates a decision maker’ preferences toward occurrence likelihood and monetary consequence into cost and benefit estimations through a modified usage of cumulative prospect theory. This paper applies the MCBE methodology to the implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX) in a generic nuclear power plant as an illustrative example. The FLEX benefits are evaluated through three types of influence paths: plant safety enhancement, risk-informed activities, and potential additional credit of FLEX in supporting plant operation and maintenance-efficiency improvement. The benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of FLEX implementation is calculated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the impacts of modeling assumptions and input parameter values on the BCR.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Modeling of gap conductance for LWR fuel rods applied in the BISON code

A new gap conductance model is proposed in this study as a combination of Toptan’s model and the Ross-Stoute model. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed to understand how simulation results depend on all input parameters of the proposed model. Additionally, new modeling options (e.g. fill gas thermal conductivity, temperature jump distance, thermal accommodation coefficient, etc.) are added into the nuclear fuel performance code, BISON. The need for further investigation of the gap heat transfer between fuel and cladding in BISON motivated this study to evaluate its impact on the code’s predictions. New gap conductance modeling is proposed. A series of integral-effects validation tests is performed: (1) to demonstrate the impact of the proposed model on the code’s fuel temperature predictions at the beginning of life and through the reactor’s life; (2) to ensure that the proposed model is capable of accurately modeling gap heat transfer characteristics in real-world problems; and (3) to investigate the impact of the estimation of fission gas release on the fuel temperature predictions with the proposed model. Overall, the results indicate that the proposed gap conductance model improves BISON’s predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimization-Based Dynamic Voltage Support of Microgrids Using Energy Storage Systems

A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Application of a Focused, Pulsed X-ray Beam for Total Ionizing Dose Testing of Bipolar Linear Integrated Circuits

Here, we demonstrate the utility of focused, pulsed X-rays for investigating localized total ionizing dose effects in bipolar analog integrated circuits. Using the LM139 comparator as a test vehicle, we show how the technique can be used to identify the sources of degradation as a result of irradiating different transistors of the device and how this impacts the input bias current, input offset voltage, and output voltage. The 2-D mapping of the sensitive regions of transistors is presented, where the results of localized irradiation impact the monitored operational parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

(U) SENSMG: First-Order Sensitivities of Neutron Reaction Rates, Reaction-Rate Ratios, Leakage, k eff , α , and Subcritical Multiplication Using PARTISN

SENSMG is a tool for computing first-order sensitivities of neutron reaction rates, reaction-rate ratios, leakage, k eff , α, and subcritical multiplication using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates code. SENSMG computes sensitivities to all of the transport cross sections and data (total, fission, a nu, chi, and all scattering moments), two edit cross sections (absorption and capture), and the density for every nuclide and energy group. It also computes sensitivities to the mass density for every material and derivatives with respect to all interface locations and outer boundaries. It computes sensitivities to user specified reactions whose cross sections are available in a user-supplied NJOY output file. The tool can be used for one-dimensional spherical and slab (r) and two-dimensional cylindrical (r-z) geometries. The tool can be used for fixed-source and eigenvalue problems. For most responses, the tool implements Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) as discussed by Williams and Stacey. The tool is thus limited to computing sensitivities only for GPT-allowable responses. For subcritical multiplication, the tool implements sensitivities derived by O’Brien and Clark. SENSMG has a similar role as the old SWANLAKE (Ref. 8), FORSS (Ref. 9), and SENSIT (Ref. 10) codes. It has capabilities similar to those of SUSD3D (Refs. 11 and 12), which also uses PARTISN. Section II of this report describes the theory behind adjoint-based sensitivities, gives the equations that SENSMG solves, and defines the sensitivities that are output. Section III describes the user interface, including the input file and command line options. Section IV describes the output. Section V gives some notes about the coding that may be of interest. Section VI presents some sample problems and discusses verification, which is ongoing. Section VII lists needs and ideas for future work. Appendix A lists most of the input files whose results are presented in Sec. VI. Appendix B provides some useful details on one of the cross-section libraries that SENSMG supports.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The definition of hydrologic model parameters using remote sensing techniques

The reported investigation is concerned with the use of Landsat remote sensing to define input parameters for an array of hydrologic models which are used to synthesize streamflow and water quality parameters in the planning or management process. The ground truth sampling and problems involved in translating the remotely sensed information into hydrologic model parameters are discussed. Questions related to the modification of existing models for compatibility with remote sensing capabilities are also examined. It is shown that the input parameters of many models are presently overdefined in terms of the sensitivity and accuracy of the model. When this overdefinition is recognized many of the models currently considered to be incompatible with remote sensing capabilities can be modified to make possible use with sensors having rather low resolutions.

Ragan, R. M.↗

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pull up (from V max to V stall) and pushover (to V max for level flight). The technique, which is an extension of nonlinear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of Iliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well, was shown to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. Flow charts, listings, sample inputs and outputs for the relevant routines are provided as appendices. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. Lack of adequate knowledge of the correct full throttle thrust horsepower true airspeed variation and considerable internal data inconsistency made it impossible to apply the trajectory matching features of the technique.

Smetana, F. O.↗

Space station integrated wall design and penetration damage control

The analysis code BUMPER executes a numerical solution to the problem of calculating the probability of no penetration (PNP) of a spacecraft subject to man-made orbital debris or meteoroid impact. The codes were developed on a DEC VAX 11/780 computer that uses the Virtual Memory System (VMS) operating system, which is written in FORTRAN 77 with no VAX extensions. To help illustrate the steps involved, a single sample analysis is performed. The example used is the space station reference configuration. The finite element model (FEM) of this configuration is relatively complex but demonstrates many BUMPER features. The computer tools and guidelines are described for constructing a FEM for the space station under consideration. The methods used to analyze the sensitivity of PNP to variations in design, are described. Ways are suggested for developing contour plots of the sensitivity study data. Additional BUMPER analysis examples are provided, including FEMs, command inputs, and data outputs. The mathematical theory used as the basis for the code is described, and illustrates the data flow within the analysis.

Coronado, A. R.↗

Non-linear three dimensional spectral model of the Venusian thermosphere with super-rotation. I - Formulation and numerical technique. II - Temperature, composition and winds

A three-dimensional spectral model for the Venusion thermosphere is presented which uses spherical harmonics to represent the horizontal variations in longitude and latitude and which uses Fourier harmonics to represent the LT variations due to atmospheric rotation. A differencing scheme with tridiagonal block elimination is used to perform the height integration. Quadratic nonlinearities are taken into account. In the second part, numerical results obtained with the model are shown to reproduce the observed broad daytime maxima in CO2 and CO and the significantly larger values at dawn than at dusk. It is found that the diurnal variations in He are most sensitive to thermospheric superrotation, and that, given a globally uniform atmosphere as input, larger heating rates yield a larger temperature contrast between day and night.

Stevens-Rayburn, D. R.↗

Algorithm for Atmospheric Corrections of Aircraft and Satellite Imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 micron. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, Robert S.↗

A comparison of operationally determined atmospheric densities from satellite orbit solutions and the exospheric temperature from the Jacchia-Roberts model

Operational orbit determination by the Flight Dynamics Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center has yielded a data base of orbit solutions covering the onset of solar cycle 22. Solutions for nine satellites include an estimated drag adjustment parameter (rho sub 1) determined by the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). The rho sub 1 is used to evaluate correlations between density variations and changes in the following: 10.7-centimeter wavelength solar flux (F sub 10.7), the geomagnetic index A sub p, and two exospheric temperatures (T sub c and T sub infinity) adapted from the Jacchia-Roberts atmospheric density model in GTDS. T sub c depends on the daily and 81-day centered mean F sub 10.7; T sub infinity depends on T sub c and the geomagnetic index K sub p values. The highest correlations are between density and T sub infinity. Correlations with T sub c and F sub 10.7 are lower by 9 and 10 percent, respectively. For most cases, correlations with A sub p are considerably lower; however, significant correlations with A sub p were found for some high-inclination, moderate-altitude orbits. Results from this analysis enhance the understanding of the drag model and the accommodation of atmospheric density variations in the operational orbit determination support. The degree of correlation demonstrates the sensitivity of the orbit determination process to drag variations and to the input parameters that characterize aspects of the atmospheric density model. To this extent, the degree of correlation provides a measure of performance for methods of selecting or modeling the thermospheric densities using the solar F sub 10.7 and geomagnetic data as input to the process.

Ward, D. T.↗

Algorithm for atmospheric corrections of aircraft and satellite imagery

A simple and fast atmospheric correction algorithm is described which is used to correct radiances of scattered sunlight measured by aircraft and/or satellite above a uniform surface. The atmospheric effect, the basic equations, a description of the computational procedure, and a sensitivity study are discussed. The program is designed to take the measured radiances, view and illumination directions, and the aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness to compute the radiance just above the surface, the irradiance on the surface, and surface reflectance. Alternatively, the program will compute the upward radiance at a specific altitude for a given surface reflectance, view and illumination directions, and aerosol and gaseous absorption optical thickness. The algorithm can be applied for any view and illumination directions and any wavelength in the range 0.48 micron to 2.2 microns. The relation between the measured radiance and surface reflectance, which is expressed as a function of atmospheric properties and measurement geometry, is computed using a radiative transfer routine. The results of the computations are presented in a table which forms the basis of the correction algorithm. The algorithm can be used for atmospheric corrections in the presence of a rural aerosol. The sensitivity of the derived surface reflectance to uncertainties in the model and input data is discussed.

Fraser, R. S.↗

Monochromatic imaging instrumentation for applications in aeronomy of the earth and planets

Monochromatic imaging instrumentation has been developed that uses narrow-band (12 A FWHP) interference filters or plane reflection gratings for 2D imaging and imaging spectrograph applications. By changing the optics in front of the filter or grating, the field of view of the instruments can be varied from 180 deg to 6 deg. In the case of the 2D monochromatic imager, the 12 mm-diameter filtered image is formed at about f/1 on the input photocathode of an intensified CCD camera (380 x 488 pixels). The sensitivities of the systems are about 50-100 R s (S/N about 2). Examples of data taken with both of these instruments include detection and mapping of Jupiter's sodium magnetonebula and stable auroral red arcs in the terrestrial ionosphere.

Baumgardner, Jeffrey↗

Hair cell tufts and afferent innervation of the bullfrog crista ampullaris

Within the bullfrog semicircular canal crista, hair cell tuft types were defined and mapped with the aid of scanning electron microscopy. Dye-filled planar afferent axons had mean distal axonal diameters of 1.6-4.9 microns, highly branched arbors, and contacted 11-24 hair cells. Dye-filled isthmus afferent axons had mean distal axonal diameters of 1.8-7.9 microns, with either small or large field arbors contacting 4-9 or 25-31 hair cells. The estimated mean number of contacts per innervated hair cell was 2.2 for planar and 1.3 for isthmus afferent neurons. Data on evoked afferent responses were available only for isthmus units that were observed to respond to our microrotational stimuli. Of 21 such afferent neurons, eight were successfully dye-filled. Within this sample, high-gain units had large field arbors and lower-gain units had small field arbors. The sensitivity of each afferent neuron was analyzed in terms of noise equivalent input (NEI), the stimulus amplitude for which the afferent response amplitude is just equivalent to the rms deviation of the instantaneous spike rate. NEI for isthmus units varied from 0.63 to 8.2 deg/s; the mean was 3.2 deg/s.

Myers, Steven F.↗

A study of EUV emission from the O4f star Zeta Puppis

Our 20 ks observation did not allow us to carry out our primary objective, i.e., to test the limitations of deeply embedded EUV and X-ray sources. However, it did provide a very useful constraint in our analysis of a newly acquired high S/N ROSAT PSPC X-ray spectrum of Zeta Pup. In addition, modifications to our stellar wind opacity code have been preformed to investigate the sensitivity of the EUV opacity energy range to different photospheric model flux inputs and different wind structures. These analyses provided the justification for a 140 ks follow up EUVE Cycle III observation of this star. We have recently been informed that our requested observation has been accepted as a Type 1 target for Cycle III. The remainder of this report focuses on the following: (1) a brief background on the status of X-ray emission from OB stars; (2) a discussion on the importance of EUV observations; (3) a discussion of our scientific objectives; and (4) a summary of our technical approach for our Cycle III observation (including the predicted EUV counts for various lines.)

Waldron, Wayne L.↗