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DOE OSTI2025

SULI Intern Final Report: Computationally Investigating Hydrogen Thermo-Diffusion in Yttrium Hydride Using Multiscale Methods

The renaissance of nuclear energy has arrived, heralding an age of abundant inexpensive clean energy, and renewed space exploration. In nuclear-powered spacecraft and microreactors, safety and size are of utmost importance. Yttrium Hydride (YHx) is being researched for its utility as a neutron moderator in nuclear reactors; the hydrogen in YHx slows down neutrons, enabling a continuous nuclear reaction in the reactor. This has the benefit of allowing reactors to be more safe, compact, and efficient. The goal of this effort is to computationally predict the coefficient of temperature-dependent hydrogen diffusion within YHx, the Soret coefficient. This parameter is essential for determining the safe operating modes of YHx moderators. Zirconium Hydride (ZrHx) is used in the Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) reactor, is the reference material for these calculations. In this work, nanoscale atomic modeling in the Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) is combined with the mesoscale finite element phase-field module in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE); this culminates in a new multiscale computational method to simulate Soret diffusion of hydrogen in YHx. This data is useful for predicting experimental outcomes. This workflow involves convergence testing followed by static, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB), Quasi-Harmonic Approximation (QHA), and Molecular Dynamics (MD) calculations - linked with phase field simulation. NEB simulates hydrogen migration, while QHA and MD predict temperature-dependent properties. The static calculations align with literature, and preliminary NEB and QHA calculations yield accurate results. Once the atomic calculations are complete, we will incorporate Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) images and VASP-generated parameters into the phase field module to simulate intra- and intergranular transport of hydrogen in ZrHx and YHx. Future research will extend our approach to fuel-moderator materials systems such as Uranium-Yttrium Hydride (U-YHx). This work contributes to the development of advanced nuclear energy solutions for space travel.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Small-Signal Modeling and Design of Phase-Locked Loops Using Harmonic Signal-Flow Graphs

This report introduces signal-flow graphs for linear time-periodic systems to streamline and visually describe the frequency-domain modeling of complex phase-locked loop (PLL) systems used in grid-connected converters. Small-signal modeling using the proposed graphs is demonstrated for two commonly used single-phase PLL structures: SOGI-PLL and Park-PLL. Loop-gain models are developed for these PLLs to evaluate how an orthogonal signal generator (OSG), which is required in single-phase PLLs using the synchronous reference frame (SRF) architecture, modifies the PLL loop-gain compared to that of a three-phase SRF-PLL, which does not require an OSG. It is shown that the OSG in the SOGI-PLL and Park-PLL introduces significant phase-lag in the PLL loop-gain, limiting the maximum bandwidth for which either PLL can be designed. Slow frequency adaptation (SFA) of OSG is proposed as a solution to mitigate the influence of the OSG dynamics on the PLL loop-gain. Experimental results are presented to validate the developed loop-gain models and show that the proposed SFA-SOGI-PLL and SFA-Park-PLL have improved transient performance, they do not suffer from the bandwidth limit, and they also preserve the steady-state performance of the standard SOGI-PLL and Park-PLL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic understanding of catalytic conversion of ethanol to 1-butene over 2D-pillared MFI zeolite

Ethanol is an important C2 platform molecule for producing value-added chemicals and distillate hydrocarbon fuels (e.g., jet and diesel). Among these, catalytic upgrading of ethanol to butenes can generate valuable commodity chemicals (e.g., 1-butene) and provide C4 olefin intermediates that can be further upgraded to jet/diesel fuels. 2D zeolites offer hierarchical mesoporous structures, leading to improved mass transport and reduced diffusion length, which can help to address the coking challenges faced by ethanol conversion to hydrocarbons over 3D zeolites. In this study, we investigate the acid-catalyzed conversion of ethanol to 1-butene over the Brønsted acid sites (BAS) in 2D-pillared MFI zeolite (2D-PMFI) using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations, in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS), and calorimetric measurements. A detailed thermodynamic analysis, using quasi-harmonic approximation (QHA), on the Gibbs free energy pathway of ethanol conversion shows that the consideration of entropy is critical to accurately capture the detailed thermodynamic profiles. The formation of bulky ethoxy-ethene complex is found to be a potential rate-determining step (RDS), proceeding via stepwise mechanism. The reactivity of 2D-PMFI can be further tuned by manipulating RDS through a careful control of number of BAS and operating temperatures. The accuracy of computational model is confirmed through the comparison of calculated vibrational density of states (VDOS) against the experimental DRIFTS measurements. Overall, our study provides mechanistic insights into ethanol upgrading over the 2D-PMFI and shows the importance of evaluating entropic effects in such confined system.

Ethanol conversion, 2D-pillared zeolite, MFI, Anha↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing methods in fusion and fitting for time series construction in remote sensing-based earth observations

This study evaluates the comparative performance of spatiotemporal fusion and time-series fitting methods for constructing high-spatiotemporal-resolution remote sensing time-series data. Due to in-class similarity of fusion methods and fitting methods, we employ the Fit-FC (Fitting, spatial Filtering, and residual Compensation) model as a representative fusion method and the linear harmonic fitting model as a representative fitting method. Both Fit-FC and the linear harmonic fitting are widely used for high-spatiotemporal-resolution time-series data construction, and we modify the original Fit-FC model to enable automatic time-series fusion. To ensure data representativeness, we use 3 years (2019–2021) of Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance datasets and Terra MCD43A4 products. Eight experimental regions are selected worldwide to guarantee generalization of the comparative performance between fusion and fitting methods, covering diverse land-use types (cropland, developed land, forest, and grassland) and varying climatological conditions. Time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance are analyzed under both actual observations and simulated data-missing scenarios. The constructed time-series data reveals that (1) the modified Fit-FC and linear harmonic fitting model achieve excellent performance in constructing high-resolution time-series images; (2) the fusion method outperforms the fitting method in constructing time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance images in cropland-, forest-, and grassland-dominated regions; (3) both methods achieve comparable performance in developed-dominated regions; (4) the fusion method is more robust to missing data, and better captures abrupt phenological transitions under conditions of continuous missing data; (5) the fitting method is computationally more efficient, making it suitable for large-scale time-series image reconstruction. This study provides valuable insights for selecting optimal strategies to generate high-resolution time-series images across diverse application scenarios and lays a foundation for extensions to other vegetation indices or land surface variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systematically derived thermodynamic properties for alkane oxidation

Key combustion properties, such as ignition delay time, show strong sensitivity to the thermochemistry of the main species in the standard radical oxidation pathway at low temperatures (600-1000K). Significant uncertainties persist in current estimates of thermodynamic properties, particularly for the larger species of relevance to common practical fuels. In this article, we use advanced computational schemes to evaluate thermodynamic properties for the fuel, fuel radical, peroxy, hydroperoxy-alkyl radical, and hydroperoxide species for a set of 17 fuels containing up to 9 carbon atoms, and with various degrees of branching in the alkane backbone. The procedure, termed STAR-1D, combines conformer sampling to find the minimum geometry, B2PLYP-D3/cc-pVTZ harmonic frequency evaluations, and omega B97X-D/cc-pVTZ one-dimensional torsional mapping. It includes two physically-based scaling routines: a frequency-dependent scaling to B2PLYP-D3/cc-pVTZ anharmonic frequencies and a scaling of one-dimensional omega B97X-D/ccpVTZ torsional profiles to reproduce the product of the B2PLYP-D3/cc-pVTZ frequencies in the harmonic limit. Substantive comparisons with existing experimental databases, together with careful examinations of key theoretical assumptions, are used to explore the accuracy of the predictions. These computationally intensive explorations of 195 species were facilitated by automated thermochemistry software. Further, high accuracy 0 K heats of formation from a separate study are used with the STAR-1D computations to generate NASA polynomial representations. In addition to their intrinsic value, the present results also provide a reliable database for the optimization of group additivity or machine learning schemes for scaling to larger combustion systems. Towards this end a complementary extensive conformational analysis is carried out for the medium sized species and the thermodynamic properties of the lowest energy hydrogen-bonded and non-hydrogen bonded conformers are contrasted for larger hydroperoxy-alkyl radical species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Persistent global greening over the last four decades using novel long-term vegetation index data with enhanced temporal consistency

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0003 yr -1 ), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0008 yr -1 ) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0001 yr -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Azimuthal correlation anisotropies in p + p collisions simulated using Pythia

Stimulated by a keen interest in possible collective behavior in high-energy proton-proton and proton-nucleus collisions, we study two-particle angular correlations in pseudorapidity and azimuthal differences in simulated p + p interactions using the Pythia 8 event generator. Multi-parton interactions and color connection are included in these simulations, which have been perceived to produce collectivity in final-state particles. Meanwhile, contributions from genuine few-body nonflow correlations, not of collective flow behavior, are known to be severe in these small-system collisions. We present our Pythia correlation studies pedagogically and report azimuthal harmonic anisotropies analyzed using several methods. We observe anisotropies in these Pythia simulated events qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, similar to experimental data. Furthermore, our findings highlight the delicate nature of azimuthal anisotropies in small-system collisions and provide a benchmark that can aid in improving data analysis and interpreting experimental measurements in small-system collisions.

Pythia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Systems and methods that use harmonic drives for converting reciprocating axial motion to continuous rotary motion, helical drives for converting reciprocating rotary motion to reciprocating axial motion and combinations thereof for converting reciprocating rotary motion to continuous rotary motion

A harmonic drive assembly and fluid-powered linear motors with both axial pistons are rotary piston arrangements incorporating the harmonic drive assembly are disclosed. The motors may be used in downhole drilling applications, but the drive assembly and/or motors may be used in other applications. The assembly, motors and methods use advanced harmonic drives, advanced helical drives, and combinations thereof with 1) motors with axial pistons and reciprocating linear rings to convert reciprocative axial motion to continuous rotary motion, and 2) motors with rotary pistons and reciprocating linear rings to rectify reciprocative rotary motion to continual rotary motion to improve performance over prior configurations. Axial pistons provide a robust simple solution for generating rotation; Rotational pistons provide increased torque generation as the torque generated is proportional to motor length. Since downhole drills are long, a high-torque motor can be produced using this method.

Raymond, David W.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Applications of the worldline Monte Carlo formalism in quantum mechanics

Highlights: Universal approach to the numerical computation of the Euclidean path integral. Inspired by recent work in relativistic quantum field theory. Here adapted to non-relativistic quantum mechanics. Worked out for the computation of propagators and ground-state energies. Special smoothing procedure for singular potentials. -- Abstract: In recent years efficient algorithms have been developed for the numerical computation of relativistic single-particle path integrals in quantum field theory. Here, we adapt this “worldline Monte Carlo” approach to the standard problem of the numerical approximation of the non-relativistic path integral, resulting in a formalism whose characteristic feature is the fast, non-recursive generation of an ensemble of trajectories that is independent of the potential, and is thus universally applicable. The numerical implementation discretises the trajectories with respect to their time parametrisation but maintains a continuous spatial domain. In the case of singular potentials, the discretised action gets adapted to the singularity through a “smoothing” procedure. We show for a variety of examples (the harmonic oscillator in various dimensions, the modified Pöschl–Teller potential, delta-function potentials, the Coulomb and Yukawa potentials) that the method allows one to obtain fast and reliable estimates for the Euclidean propagator and use them in a certain time window suitable for extracting the ground state energy. Usually Monte Carlo calculations in quantum mechanics are performed using algorithms that involve a more specific adaptation to the potential, and we briefly compare our method with the most widely used such algorithms, which are of Metropolis type. As an aside, we apply it for studying the classical limit where nearly classical trajectories are expected to dominate in the path integral. We expect the advances made here to be useful also in the relativistic case.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hydrodynamic Analysis of a Suspended Cylinder Under Regular Wave Loading Based on Computational Fluid Dynamics

An investigation into the computation of hydrodynamic loads on a suspended cylinder in regular waves is presented. The primary goal was to perform a three-way validation of the loads between experimental measurements and simulations from two computational methods. Experimental measurements of the longitudinal in-line force on a cylinder suspended at a fixed position were available from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project, Phase Ia. These measurements were compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations based on the solution of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, as implemented in STAR-CCM+. The study encompassed a sensitivity analysis of the loads computed in STAR-CCM+ based on wave modeling, boundary conditions, turbulence modeling, and spatial and temporal discretization. The analysis was supplemented by results generated with the offshore wind turbine engineering software OpenFAST, based on a hybrid combination of second-order potential flow and viscous drag from Morison's equation. The focus of the investigation was on the assessment of the accuracy of the computation of first- and higher-order hydrodynamic loads. Substantial differences were observed in the numerical prediction of the second and third harmonic force contribution. Local flow field analysis with CFD was applied to study the physics of wave run-up and diffraction dynamics to identify the causes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minkowski vacuum entanglement and accelerated oscillator chains

Minkowski vacuum is empty from the perspective of Unruh-Minkowski photons, however, in the Rindler picture, it is filled with entangled pairs of Rindler photons. A ground-state atom uniformly accelerated through Minkowski vacuum can become excited by absorbing a Rindler photon (Unruh effect) or, in the alternative description, by emitting an Unruh-Minkowski photon (Unruh-Wald effect). We find an exact solution for the quantum evolution of a long chain of harmonic oscillators accelerated through Minkowski vacuum and for two chains accelerated in the opposite directions. We show how entanglement of Rindler photons present in Minkowski vacuum is transferred to the oscillators moving in causally disconnected regions. We also show that in the Unruh-Minkowski photon picture the process can be interpreted as if initial correlations between collective oscillator modes are transferred to the generated Unruh-Minkowski photons. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Svidzinsky, Anatoly A. (ORCID:0000000247756767)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics: A DOE-NIH Joint Workshop Executive Summary

The DOE-NIH Joint Workshop on Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics, held on September 27, 2024, brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to address critical challenges in radionuclide production and clinical translation. Here, the workshop emphasized interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly between the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), to strengthen the domestic isotope supply, streamline regulatory pathways, and further integrate computational tools into radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT). Key discussions explored the role of AI-driven modeling, machine learning, and digital twin technologies in optimizing dosimetry, dynamically personalizing treatments, and reducing time to clinical adoption. Advances in predictive computational modeling were highlighted as essential for improving radionuclide yield, purity, and synthesis efficiency. Regulatory considerations and equitable access were central themes, with participants advocating for harmonized global standards, adaptive trial designs, and expanded infrastructure for clinical implementation. DOE computational and production infrastructure was emphasized. Future priorities identified include increased investment in radionuclide production infrastructure, expanded workforce development in radiopharmaceutical sciences and computational modeling, and the creation of robust public-private partnerships. The workshop concluded that continued strategic collaboration and sustained resources will be vital for advancing next-generation radiotheranostics, ensuring safe and effective therapies accessible to all patients.

digital twins↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Permutation-adapted complete and independent basis for atomic cluster expansion descriptors

In many recent applications, particularly in the field of atom-centered descriptors for interatomic potentials, tensor products of spherical harmonics have been used to characterize complex atomic environments. When coupled with a radial basis, the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) basis is obtained. However, symmetrization with respect to both rotation and permutation results in an overcomplete set of ACE descriptors with linear dependencies occurring within blocks of functions corresponding to particular generalized Wigner symbols. All practical applications of ACE employ semi-numerical constructions to generate a complete, fully independent basis. While computationally tractable, the resultant basis cannot be expressed analytically, is susceptible to numerical instability, and thus has limited reproducibility. Here we present a procedure for generating explicit analytic expressions for a complete and independent set of ACE descriptors. The procedure uses a coupling scheme that is maximally symmetric w.r.t. permutation of the atoms, exposing the permutational symmetries of the generalized Wigner symbols, and yields a permutation-adapted rotationally and permutationally invariant basis (PA-RPI ACE). Theoretical support for the approach is presented, as well as numerical evidence of completeness and independence. A summary of explicit enumeration of PA-RPI functions up to rank 6 and polynomial degree 32 is provided. The PA-RPI blocks corresponding to particular generalized Wigner symbols may be either larger or smaller than the corresponding blocks in the simpler rotationally invariant basis. Finally, we demonstrate that basis functions of high polynomial degree persist under strong regularization, indicating the importance of not restricting the maximum degree of basis functions in ACE models a priori.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exact evaluation of large-charge correlation functions in nonrelativistic conformal field theory

The large-charge master field which generates all n -point correlation functions with an insertion of large charge Q in nonrelativistic conformal field theory is obtained. This field is used to compute Schrödinger-invariant n -point correlation functions of large-charge operators via a direct evaluation of the path integral. Conformal dimensions are found to agree with calculations based on the state-operator correspondence. The master field solution exhibits an emergent harmonic trap whose frequency is a function of the Euclidean time. The large-charge effective action with operator insertions describes a droplet of superfluid matter whose spatial size scales with the time separation of sources. The solution is used to compute Schrödinger symmetry breaking corrections in the large-charge effective field theory (EFT) due to a finite scattering length in the fundamental theory of fermions near unitarity. The scaling of these effects in the large-charge power counting scheme is established, and the size of the effects is quantified using input from quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the near-unitary gas, as well as from the large- N expansion at large charge. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Canonical Transformation of Potential Model Hamiltonian Mechanics to Geometrical Form I

Using the methods of symplectic geometry, we establish the existence of a canonical transformation from potential model Hamiltonians of standard form in a Euclidean space to an equivalent geometrical form on a manifold, where the corresponding motions are along geodesic curves. The advantage of this representation is that it admits the computation of geodesic deviation as a test for local stability, shown in recent previous studies to be a very effective criterion for the stability of the orbits generated by the potential model Hamiltonian. We describe here an algorithm for finding the generating function for the canonical transformation and describe some of the properties of this mapping under local diffeomorphisms. We give a convergence proof for this algorithm for the one-dimensional case, and provide a precise geometric formulation of geodesic deviation which relates the stability of the motion in the geometric form to that of the Hamiltonian standard form. We apply our methods to a simple one-dimensional harmonic oscillator and conclude with a discussion of the relation of bounded domains in the two representations for which Morse theory would be applicable.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proposed Longitudinal Profile Diagnostics for Optical Stochastic Cooling of Stored Electrons in the IOTA Ring

One of the predicted signatures of successful optical stochastic cooling (OSC) in the Fermilab Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) ring is reduction of the bunch length. The IOTA OSC experiment is designed for a low nominal beam current (~0.1 microAmps of 100-MeV electrons) to reduce intrabeam scattering (IBS), and during cooling, OSC is expected to reduce the bunch length from ~200 ps to ~130 ps*. These equilibrium bunch lengths can be measured using a streak camera and the optical synchrotron radiation (OSR) generated in a ring dipole by the circulating beam. A similar measurement was previously performed at the Advanced Photon Source with a Hamamatsu C5680 synchroscan streak camera operating at 117.3 MHz**. In this case, synchronous summing of OSR resulted in a bunch length measurement of 276 ± 30 ps using only 57 electrons circulating at 425 MeV. At IOTA, an existing streak camera has been modified to operate at the 11th harmonic of the ring’s revolution frequency of 7.50 MHz and has been installed on an OSR port in support of the OSC experiments. The integrated system will have sufficient sensitivity and resolution for measuring the evolution and equilibrium values of the bunch length during OSC experiments.

Lumpkin, Alex H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting Technology Learning Curves for Prospective Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways

Comparisons of emerging carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies with equivalent incumbent technologies are necessary to support technology developers and to help policy-makers design appropriate long-term incentives to mitigate climate change through the deployment of CCU. In particular, early-stage CCU technologies must prove their economic viability and environmental reduction potential compared to already-deployed technologies. These comparisons can be misleading, as emerging technologies typically experience a drastic increase in performance and decrease in cost and greenhouse gas emissions as they develop from research to mass-market deployment due to various forms of learning. These changes complicate the interpretation of early techno-economic assessments (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of emerging CCU technologies. The effects of learning over time or cumulative production themselves can be quantitatively described using technology learning curves (TLCs). While learning curve approaches have been developed for various technologies, a harmonized methodology for using TLCs in TEA and LCA for CCU in particular is required. To address this, we describe a methodology that incorporates TLCs into TEA and LCA to forecast the environmental and economic performance of emerging CCU technologies. This methodology is based on both an evaluation of the state of the art of learning curve assessment and a literature review of TLC approaches developed in various manufacturing and energy generation sectors. Additionally, we demonstrate how to implement this methodology using a case study on a CO 2 mineralization pathway. Finally, commentary is provided on how researchers, technology developers, and LCA and TEA practitioners can advance the use of TLCs to allow for consistent, high-resolution modeling of technological learning for CCU going forward and enable holistic assessments and fairer comparisons with other climate technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗