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At least 739 records · Page 41

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Progenitors and explosion properties of supernova remnants hosting central compact objects: II. A global systematic study with a comparison to nucleosynthesis models

ABSTRACT Core-collapse explosions of massive stars leave behind neutron stars, with a known diversity that includes the ‘Central Compact Objects’ (CCOs). Typified by the neutron star discovered near the centre of the Cas A supernova remnant (SNR), CCOs have been observed to shine only in X-rays. To address their supernova progenitors, we perform a systematic study of SNRs that contain a CCO and display X-ray emission from their shock-heated ejecta. We make use of X-ray data primarily using the Chandra X-ray observatory, complemented with XMM–Newton. This study uses a systematic approach to the analysis of each SNR aimed at addressing the supernova progenitor as well as the explosion properties (energy and ambient density). After fitting for the ejecta abundances estimated from a spatially resolved spectroscopic study, we compare the data to six nucleosynthesis models making predictions on supernova ejecta yields in core-collapse explosions. We find that the explosion models commonly used by the astrophysics community do not match the ejecta yields for any of the SNRs, suggesting additional physics, for example multidimensional explosion models or updated progenitor structures, are required. Overall we find low-mass (≤25 solar masses) progenitors among the massive stars population and low-energy explosions (<1051 ergs). We discuss degeneracies in our model fitting, particularly how altering the explosion energy affects the estimate of the progenitor mass. Our systematic study highlights the need for improving on the theoretical models for nucleosynthesis predictions as well as for sensitive, high-resolution spectroscopy observations to be acquired with next generation X-ray missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

Results from a multi-laboratory ocean metaproteomic intercomparison: effects of LC-MS acquisition and data analysis procedures

Metaproteomics is an increasingly popular methodology that provides information regarding the metabolic functions of specific microbial taxa and has potential for contributing to ocean ecology and biogeochemical studies. A blinded multi-laboratory intercomparison was conducted to assess comparability and reproducibility of taxonomic and functional results and their sensitivity to methodological variables. Euphotic zone samples from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the North Atlantic Ocean collected by in situ pumps and the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Clio were distributed with a paired metagenome, and one-dimensional (1D) liquid chromatographic data-dependent acquisition mass spectrometry analysis was stipulated. Analysis of mass spectra from seven laboratories through a common bioinformatic pipeline identified a shared set of 1056 proteins from 1395 shared peptide constituents. Quantitative analyses showed good reproducibility: pairwise regressions of spectral counts between laboratories yielded R 2 values averaged 0.62±0.11, and a Sørensen similarity analysis of the top 1000 proteins revealed 70 %–80 % similarity between laboratory groups. Taxonomic and functional assignments showed good coherence between technical replicates and different laboratories. A bioinformatic intercomparison study, involving 10 laboratories using eight software packages, successfully identified thousands of peptides within the complex metaproteomic datasets, demonstrating the utility of these software tools for ocean metaproteomic research. Lessons learned and potential improvements in methods were described. Future efforts could examine reproducibility in deeper metaproteomes, examine accuracy in targeted absolute quantitation analyses, and develop standards for data output formats to improve data interoperability. Together, these results demonstrate the reproducibility of metaproteomic analyses and their suitability for microbial oceanography research, including integration into global-scale ocean surveys and ocean biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Alternative Representations of Convective Processes in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

The gap in explicit resolution of phenomena between global climate models and cloud resolving models is shrinking at a steady pace with global integrations of several km in resolution now practical for at least some time scales. In moving toward finer resolution the long standing problem of convective parameterization is being examined along with the assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium and how this can be reconciled with the stochastic and intermittent nature of convection. In this context we examine the nature of parameterized convection in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Our analysis uses both coarse (2.5 degree) and fine scale 0.25 degree spatial resolution integrations. Two basic formulations are compared: the default option is the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme which invokes a sequence of linearly entraining plumes and quasi-equilibrium closure. An optional modification of this method (the "Stochastic Tokioka" constraint) places a random lower limit on plume entrainment. An alternative representation is the Kain-Fritsch parameterization which was originally developed for mesoscale numerical modeling strategies. Here entrainment is determined by a crude buoyancy sorting approach that allows the plume spectrum to be more responsive to ambient vertical stratification of moisture. Diagnostics of the model behavior are referenced to recent observational evidence of continuous phase transition behavior. In particular we examine the relationship between column water vapor and probablility of convective presence and intensity. Sensitivity of the statistics of convective behavior to parcel mixing/entrainment formulations and parcel initial thermodynamics are considered. Observational statistics from A-Train and TRMM sensors provide validation of the model integrations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗

Climate and Lightning: An updated TRMM-LIS Analysis

The TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has sampled global tropical and sub-tropical lightning flash densities for approximately 11 years. These data were originally processed and results presented by the authors in the 3rd AMS MALD Conference held in 2007 using both pre and post TRMM-boost lightning data. These data were normalized for the orbit boost by scaling the pre-boost data by a fixed constant based on the different swath areas for the pre and post-boost years (post-boost after 2001). Inevitably, one must question this simple approach to accounting for the orbit boost when sampling such a noisy quantity. Hence we are in the process of reprocessing the entire 11-year TRMM LIS dataset to reduce the orbit swath of the post-boost era to that of the pre-boost in order to eliminate sampling bias in the dataset. Study of the diurnal/seasonal/annual sampling suggests that those biases are already minimal and should not contribute to error in examination of annual trends. We will present new analysis of the 11-year annual trends in total lightning flash density for all latitudinal belts and select regions/regimes of the tropics as related to conventional climate signals and precipitation contents in the same period. The results should enable us to address, in some fashion, the sensitivity of the lightning flash density to subtle changes in climate.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Enzymatic Laser-Induced Graphene Biosensor for Electrochemical Sensing of the Herbicide Glyphosate

Glyphosate is a globally applied herbicide yet it has been relatively undetectable in-field samples outside of gold-standard techniques. Its presumed nontoxicity toward humans has been contested by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, while it has been detected in farmers’ urine, surface waters and crop residues. Rapid, on-site detection of glyphosate is hindered by lack of field-deployable and easy-to-use sensors that circumvent sample transportation to limited laboratories that possess the equipment needed for detection. Herein, the flavoenzyme, glycine oxidase, immobilized on platinum-decorated laser-induced graphene (LIG) is used for selective detection of glyphosate as it is a substrate for GlyOx. The LIG platform provides a scaffold for enzyme attachment while maintaining the electronic and surface properties of graphene. The sensor exhibits a linear range of 10–260 µm, detection limit of 3.03 µm, and sensitivity of 0.991 nA µm -1 . The sensor shows minimal interference from the commonly used herbicides and insecticides: atrazine, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, dicamba, parathion-methyl, paraoxon-methyl, malathion, chlorpyrifos, thiamethoxam, clothianidin, and imidacloprid. Sensor function is further tested in complex river water and crop residue fluids, which validate this platform as a scalable, direct-write, and selective method of glyphosate detection for herbicide mapping and food analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Inter-Calibration and Concatenation of Climate Quality Infrared Cloudy Radiances from Multiple Instruments

A change in climate is not likely captured from any single instrument, since no single instrument can span decades of time. Therefore, to detect signals of global climate change, observations from many instruments on different platforms have to be concatenated. This requires careful and detailed consideration of instrumental differences such as footprint size, diurnal cycle of observations, and relative biases in the spectral brightness temperatures. Furthermore, a common basic assumption is that the data quality is independent of the observed scene and therefore can be determined using clear scene data. However, as will be demonstrated, this is not necessarily a valid assumption as the globe is mostly cloudy. In this study we highlight challenges in inter-calibration and concatenation of infrared radiances from multiple instruments by focusing on the analysis of deep convective or anvil clouds. TRMM/VIRS is potentially useful instrument to make correction for observational differences in the local time and foot print sizes, and thus could be applied retroactively to vintage instruments such as AIRS, IASI, IRIS, AVHRR, and HIRS. As the first step, in this study, we investigate and discuss to what extent AIRS and VIRS agree in capturing deep cloudy radiances at the same local time. The analysis also includes comparisons with one year observations from CrIS. It was found that the instruments show calibration differences of about 1K under deep cloudy scenes that can vary as a function of land type and local time of observation. The sensitivity of footprint size, view angle, and spectral band-pass differences cannot fully explain the observed differences. The observed discrepancies can be considered as a measure of the magnitude of issues which will arise in the comparison of legacy data with current data.

cloudy radiance↗

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Falling Snow and Associated GPM Field Campaigns

Retrievals of falling snow from space represent one of the next important challenges for the atmospheric, hydrological, and energy budget scientific communities. Historically, retrievals of falling snow have been difficult due to the relative insensitivity of satellite rain-based channels as used in the past. We emphasize the use of high frequency passive microwave channels (85-200 GHz) since these are more sensitive to the ice in clouds and have been used to estimate falling snow from space. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events and the science is relatively new, retrievals are still undergoing development with challenges remaining. There are several current satellite sensors, though not specifically designed for estimating falling snow, are capable of measuring snow from space. These include NOAA's AMSU-B, the MHS sensors, and CloudSat radar. They use high frequency (greater than 85 GHz) passive and active microwave and millimeter-wave channels that are sensitive to the scattering from ice and snow particles in the atmosphere. Sensors with water vapor channels near 183 GHz center line provide opaqueness to the Earth's surface features that can contaminate the falling snow signatures, especially over snow covered surface. In addition, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission scheduled for launch in 2013 is specifically designed to measure both liquid rain and frozen snow precipitation. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 1.0 gram per cubic meter be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. In this work, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases [9] since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. This analysis relies on data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Program (C3VP) field campaign held from October 31, 2006 through March 1, 2007. In January 2012 GPM will return to the C3VP area for the GPM Cold Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx). This presentation will describe the thresholds-of-detection procedure and results, as well as the field campaign details.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗

Uncertainty of Passive Imager Cloud Optical Property Retrievals to Instrument Radiometry and Model Assumptions: Examples from MODIS

The optical and microphysical structure of clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global-daily 1 km retrievals of cloud optical thickness (COT) and effective particle radius (CER) are provided, as well as the derived water path (WP). The cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate retrieval datasets for various two-channel retrievals, typically a VISNIR channel paired with a 1.6, 2.1, and 3.7 m spectral channel. The MOD06 forward model is derived from on a homogeneous plane-parallel cloud. In Collection 5 processing (completed in 2007 with a modified Collection 5.1 completed in 2010), pixel-level retrieval uncertainties were calculated for the following non-3-D error sources: radiometry, surface spectral albedo, and atmospheric corrections associated with model analysis uncertainties (water vapor only). The latter error source includes error correlation across the retrieval spectral channels. Estimates of uncertainty in 1 aggregated (Level-3) means were also provided assuming unity correlation between error sources for all pixels in a grid for a single day, and zero correlation of error sources from one day to the next. I n Collection 6 (expected to begin in late summer 2013) we expanded the uncertainty analysis to include: (a) scene-dependent calibration uncertainty that depends on new band and detector-specific Level 1B uncertainties, (b) new model error sources derived from the look-up tables which includes sensitivities associated with wind direction over the ocean and uncertainties in liquid water and ice effective variance, (c) thermal emission uncertainties in the 3.7 m band associated with cloud and surface temperatures that are needed to extract reflected solar radiation from the total radiance signal, (d) uncertainty in the solar spectral irradiance at 3.7 m, and (e) addition of stratospheric ozone uncertainty in visible atmospheric corrections. A summary of the approach and example Collection 6 results will be shown.

Cloud Properties Observations↗

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

RH1020 Single Event Clock Upset Summary Report

This report summarizes the testing and analysis of "single event clock upset' in the RH1020. Also included are SEU-rate predictions and design recommendations for risk analysis and reduction. The subject of "upsets" in the RH1020 is best understood by using a model consisting of a global clock buffer and a D-type flip-flop as the basic memory unit. The RH1020 is built on the ACT 1 family architecture. As such, it has one low-skew global clock buffer with a TTL-level input threshold that is accessed via a single dedicated pin. The clock signal is driven to full CMOS levels, buffered, and sent to individual row buffers with one buffer per channel. For low-skew performance, the outputs of all of the RH1020 row buffers are shorted together via metal lines, as is done in the A1020B. All storage in the RH1020 consists of routed flip-flops, constructed with multiplexors and feedback through the routing segments. A simple latch can be constructed from a single (combinatorial or C) module; an edge-triggered flip-flop is constructed using two concatenated latches. There is no storage in the I/O modules. The front end of the clock buffering circuitry, at a common point relative to the row buffer, is a sub-circuit that was determined to be the most susceptible to heavy ions. This is due, in part, to its smaller transistors compared to the rest of the circuitry. This conclusion is also supported by SPICE simulations and an analysis of the heavy ion data, described in this report. The edge triggered D flip-flop has two single-event-upset modes. Mode one, called C-module upset, is caused by a heavy ion striking the C-module's sensitive area on the silicon and produces a soft single bit error at the output of the flip-flop. Mode two, called clock upset, is caused by a heavy ion strike on the clock buffer, generating a runt pulse interpreted as a false clock signal and consequently producing errors at the flip-flop outputs. C-module upset sensitivity in the RH1020 is essentially the same as that of its ACT 1 siblings (A1020, A1020A and A1020B), which were well tested, analyzed, and documented in the literature.

Katz, Richard B.↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Effects of Normal Metal Stripes on TES Performance

Exploring the effects of size and geometry of normal metal features on the transition shapes and performance of transition-edge sensor microcalorimeters. The spectral resolution of transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeters is very sensitive to the specific dependencies of the resistance R in the superconducting transition on the current I, magnetic field B, and temperature T. In particular, it has been shown that transitions that are very steep in (R,T) space lead to a significant noise term, in excess of conventional expectations. This so-called unexplained noise is known to be reduced by the addition of normal metal stripes across the TES perpendicular to the direction of current flow. These normal metal stripes have been shown to drastically alter the oscillatory patterns seen in measurements of the critical current as a function of magnetic field. However, there are many remaining questions about the exact impact of the stripes on current distributions within the TES, the Fraunhofer pattern and, therefore, the shape of the R(I, B, T) surface. Through measurements of the resistance under DC bias of TES devices of various sizes, with different stripe patterns and dimensions, we will discuss how these stripes can affect the R(I, B, T) surface. In addition, using measurements and analysis of the noise spectra of various devices we will present how these changes to the stripe pattern may affect the performance of the TES. In particular, we will discuss strategies to reduce the presence of localized discontinuities in the derivative of R, associated with increased noise, while maintaining the globally low levels of unexplained noise currently achieved with conventional metal stripe patterns. Implementing these strategies is a path towards producing large arrays with highly uniform transitions and high spectral resolution. These large uniform arrays will be required for future x-ray astronomy applications, such as the X-IFU on ATHENA.

TES↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC/year) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC/year) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (−53 gC/sq.m year) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (−42 gC/sq.m year) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

Climate change↗