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At least 739 records · Page 41

Rainfall Field Reconstruction by Opportunistic Use of the Rain- Induced Attenuation on Microwave Satellite Signals: The July 2021 Extreme Rain Event in Germany as a Case Study

This paper presents a practical application of an opportunistic technique for the estimation of rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The proposed technique is based upon signal strength measurements made by commercial-grade interactive satellite terminals. By applying some processing, the rain-induced attenuation on the microwave downlink from the satellite is first evaluated; then the rain attenuation is eventually mapped into a rainfall rate estimate via a tropospheric model. This methodology has been applied to a test area of 30 × 30 km 2 around the city of Dortmund (North Rhine-Westphalia, upper basin of Ermscher river), for the heavy rain event that devastated western Germany in July, 2021. A rainfall map on this area is obtained from the measurements collected by a set of satellite terminals deployed in the region, and successfully compared with a map obtained with a conventional weather radar.

Rainfall rate estimation↗

Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

Martin, R. N.↗

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗

Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART)

This report contains key findings from a project titled Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART), which was carried out through a collaborative effort of a team of researchers from Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station, Temple University, and Quanta Technology, LLC. The in-kind support came from OSIsoft (acquired by AVEVA), which provided their PI Historian software to demonstrate the use case of streaming PMU data. The first section of the report describes the project goals and objectives related to the development of Machine Learning (ML) models capable of detecting and classifying events by processing phasor measurements captured in the field by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). The data for this study was contributed by the utilities/ISOs from the Western and Eastern interconnects and ERCOT, further referred to as Interconnect B (IC B), Interconnect A (IC A), and Interconnect C (IC C), respectively. The approach that the BDSMART Research Team proposed and the key research tasks defined by the team are outlined in this section. The next section describes the technical approach. We first discuss the data constraints related to the PMU measurements and data interpretation constraints imposed by the data contributors. They provided neither the topological information of the grid nor PMU placement locations and captured recorded data at very few locations in the system with the reporting rate of either 30 or 60 fps. The recordings are mostly positive sequence voltage, frequency, and ROCOF, and in some limited cases, three-phase voltages and currents. We then reflect on the bad data issues that stem from poor recording practices and vague definitions of the PMU status bits to supposedly be used for bad data identification. Finally, the data discovery points to imprecise time stamps with incomplete event start/end time, as well as inconsistent and incomplete event labeling, which combined make the implementation of the data models using supervising learning quite challenging. Following the data discovery study, we hypothesize that because the IC B data has the most complete labels, we should focus our model development on that data and then test it on data from other interconnects. We also define the common metrics used to evaluate the results from the ML algorithm tests. We concluded this section by summarizing the common ML models we used and explaining how we implemented and tested them. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training Dataset Report from this project. The final section of this report deals with the accomplishments and conclusions. As the accomplishments, we formulate the problem we are solving and what is achieved by solving the problem. We then reflect on each of the analytics tools we developed and point out the performance of each tool when applied to solving the mentioned problems. We reference this work for further details to the papers we published on each tool. In the conclusions, we give recommendations on how to improve future PMU recording practices to facilitate the ML algorithm implementation and guidance for the future standardization work aimed at clarifying the ambiguities associated with the PMU status bits. We finally list future tasks that can bring about further improvements in the proposed algorithms. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training, and Test Dataset Report filed at the project completion date.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Particle and flow field measurements by laser holography

Holograms make transmission recordings of aerodynamic events which are real-illuminated with ground-glass light diffusers and with no requirements for precision. The three-dimensional interferograms can be recorded by stored-beam, double-exposure, and double-plate techniques. Weak traveling shock waves, generated by rotating blade rows of an aircraft fan compressor, can be visualized by rapid double-exposure holograms recorded with a ruby laser. The same laser technique can also determine flow velocities from holograms of small flow-entrained particles. Particles larger than one-quarter millimeter are recorded under rear diffuse illumination conditions. Smaller particles can be recorded by their own forward scattering of laser light through the sensitivity of the holographic process for weak signals. Since the holographic apparatus can be path-matched, both particle and flow interferograms can be recorded with lasers of short coherence length.

Wuerker, R. F.↗

Great magnetic storms

The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 to 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that: (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Jet cone radius dependence of R AA and v 2 at PbPb 5.02 TeV from JEWEL+T R ENTo+v-USPhydro

We combine, for the first time, event-by-event T R ENTo initial conditions with the relativistic viscous hydrodynamic model v-USPhydro and the Monte Carlo event generator JEWEL to make predictions for the nuclear modification factor R AA and jet azimuthal anisotropies v n { 2 } in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV PbPb collisions for multiple centralities and values of the jet cone radius R. The R-dependence of R AA and v 2 { 2 } strongly depends on the presence of recoiling scattering centers. We find a small jet v 3 { 2 } in mid-central collisions and consistent results in wide jet p T regions and centralities with ATLAS data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scientific Visualization to Study Flux Transfer Events at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In this paper we present results of modeling of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause with subsequent development of flux transfer event signatures. The tools used include new methods that have been added to the suite of visualization methods that are used at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Flux transfer events result from localized reconnection that connect magnetosheath magnetic field and plasma with magnetospheric fields and plasma and results in flux rope structures that span the dayside magnetopause. The onset of flux rope formation and the three-dimensional structure of flux ropes are studied as they have been modeled by high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the dayside magnetosphere of the Earth. We show that flux transfer events are complex three-dimensional structures that require modern visualization and analysis techniques. Two suites of visualization methods are presented and we demonstrate the usefulness of those methods through the CCMC web site to the general science user.

Rastatter, Lutz↗

Energetic ion anisotropies in the geomagnetic tail. I - A statistical survey. II - Magnetic field and substorm characteristics

A comprehensive data set from the ISEE 2 spacecraft is used here to perform a statistical study of events in the earth's central magnetotail that are characterized by high anisotropies of energetic ions. In about 75 percent of the cases the anisotropy vector deviates no more than 45 deg from the tidal axis. High-anisotropy samples within 45 deg of the tidal axis are dominated by the earthward fraction. High ion anisotropies are observed continuously for longer than 1 min only in a few cases. The probability of observing high ion anisotropies is significantly enhanced beyond about 16 R(E) downtail distance within a few earth radii of the neutral sheet and on the duskside of the magnetotail. The analysis is extended with respect to the local magnetic field and to the relationship between energetic ion anisotropies and substorm phases. It is found that the events can be well organized in terms of substorm expansion phase and substorm recovery. These relations and the magnetic field characteristics during the events support the notion that the near-earth source of tailward streaming ions is identical with a substorm neutral line.

Kettmann, Georg↗

MESSENGER Observations of Reconnection and Its Effects on Mercury's Magnetosphere

During MESSENGER's second and third flybys of Mercury on October 6, 2008 and September 29, 2009, respectively, southward interplanetary magnetic fields produced very intense reconnection signatures in the dayside and nightside magnetosphere and very different systemlevel responses. The IMF during the second flyby was continuously southward and the magnetosphere appeared very active with very large magnetic fields normal to the magnetopause and the generation of flux transfer events at the magnetopause and plasmoids in the tail current sheet every 30 s to 90 s. However, the strength and direction of the tail magnetic field was very stable. In contrast the third flyby experienced a variable IMF with it varying from north to south on timescales of minutes. Although the MESSENGER measurements were limited this time to the nightside magnetosphere, numerous examples of plasmoid release in the tail were detected, but they were not periodic. Rather, plasmoid release was highly correlated with the four large enhancements of the tail magnetic field (i.e. by factors > 2) with durations of approx. 2 - 3 min. The increased flaring of the magnetic field during these intervals indicates that the enhancements were caused by loading of the tail with magnetic flux transferred from the dayside magnetosphere. New analyses of the second and third flyby observations of reconnection and its system-level effects will be presented. The results will be examined in light of what is known about the response of the Earth's magnetosphere to variable versus steady southward IMF.

Slavin, James A.↗

A reverse shock associated with a stream-stream interaction - The February 29, 1968, event

A clearly defined perpendicular fast reverse shock was found in the interplanetary plasma and magnetic field data from Explorer 33 and 35. A Pioneer 8 observation, which is not unambiguously identifiable because of insufficient data, indicates the evolution of this event. It is suggested that this reverse shock was formed from a stream-stream interaction and that an associated forward shock was developing and probably formed beyond the earth's orbit.

Chao, J. K.↗

Evolution of the ATLAS event data model for the HL-LHC

The upcoming high-luminosity run of the CERN Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) will yield an unprecedented volume of data. In order to process this data, the ATLAS collaboration is evolving its offline software to be able to use heterogeneous resources such as graphical processing units (GPUs) and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). To reduce conversion overheads, the event data model (EDM) should be compatible with the requirements of these resources. While the ATLAS EDM has long allowed representing data as a structure of arrays, further evolution of the EDM can enable more efficient sharing of data between CPU and GPU resources. Some of this work will be summarized here, including extensions to allow controlling how memory for event data is allocated and the implementation of jagged vectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A reverse shock associated with a stream-stream interaction: The 29th February 1968 event

A clearly defined perpendicular fast reverse shock was found in the interplanetary plasma and magnetic field data from Explorers 33 and 35. An observation by Pioneer 8, which is not unambiguously identifiable because of insufficient data, indicates the evolution of this event. It is suggested that this reverse shock was formed from a stream-stream interaction and that an associated foward shock was developing and probably formed beyond the earth's orbit.

Chao, J. K.↗

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ISEE-1 and 2 observations of magnetic flux ropes in the magnetotail - FTE's in the plasma sheet?

Magnetic field observations on ISEE-1 and 2 in and near the neutral sheet about 20 Re down the near-earth magnetotail reveal the occurrence of structures resembling magnetic flux ropes. Both electric field and fast plasma data show that these structures convect across the spacecraft at speeds of 200 - 600 km/s, and that they have scale sizes of roughly 3 5 Re. The rope axis orientation is across the tail, approximately in the -Y GSM direction. Their magnetic structure is strikingly similar to magnetic flux ropes observed in the Venus ionosphere, and to flux transfer events observed at the dayside magnetopause. The total field-aligned current within these ropes may approach a million amps. These structures may arise because of patchy reconnection within the plasma sheet, or may be tearing islands formed when the plasma sheet magnetic field has a cross-tail component. Plasma sheet flux ropes are not a common feature at ISEE orbital altitudes; this suggests that near-earth neutral line formation within ISEE apogee (22 Re) may be equally rare.

Elphic, R. C.↗