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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Herpes simplex virus and rates of cognitive decline or whole brain atrophy in the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network

Abstract Objective To investigate whether herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV‐1) infection was associated with rates of cognitive decline or whole brain atrophy among individuals from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network (DIAN). Methods Among two subsets of the DIAN cohort (age range 19.6–66.6 years; median follow‐up 3.0 years) we examined (i) rate of cognitive decline ( N = 164) using change in mini‐mental state examination (MMSE) score, (ii) rate of whole brain atrophy ( N = 149), derived from serial MR imaging, calculated using the boundary shift integral (BSI) method. HSV‐1 antibodies were assayed in baseline sera collected from 2009–2015. Linear mixed‐effects models were used to compare outcomes by HSV‐1 seropositivity and high HSV‐1 IgG titres/IgM status. Results There was no association between baseline HSV‐1 seropositivity and rates of cognitive decline or whole brain atrophy. Having high HSV‐1 IgG titres/IgM was associated with a slightly greater decline in MMSE points per year (difference in slope − 0.365, 95% CI: −0.958 to −0.072), but not with rate of whole brain atrophy. Symptomatic mutation carriers declined fastest on both MMSE and BSI measures, however, this was not influenced by HSV‐1. Among asymptomatic mutation carriers, rates of decline on MMSE and BSI were slightly greater among those who were HSV‐1 seronegative. Among mutation‐negative individuals, no differences were seen by HSV‐1. Stratifying by APOE4 status yielded inconsistent results. Interpretation We found no evidence for a major role of HSV‐1, measured by serum antibodies, in cognitive decline or whole brain atrophy among individuals at high risk of early‐onset AD.

Warren‐Gash, Charlotte↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Oxygen Non-Stoichiometry on Near-Ambient Temperature Ionic Mobility in Polaronic Mixed-Ionic-Electronic Conducting Thin Films

Enhanced ionic mobility in mixed ionic and electronic conducting solids contributes to improved performance of memristive memory, energy storage and conversion, and catalytic devices. Ionic mobility can be significantly depressed at reduced temperatures, for example, due to defect association and therefore needs to be monitored. Measurements of ionic transport in mixed conductors, however, proves to be difficult due to dominant electronic conductivity. This study examines the impact of different levels of quenched-in oxygen deficiency on the oxygen vacancy mobility near room temperature as measured by a novel dynamic current-voltage analysis. A Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ film was grown by pulsed laser deposition and subsequently annealed, from 400-600° C, in various oxygen partial pressures to modify its oxygen vacancy concentration while minimizing microstructural growth and cation segregation. To monitor changes in film non-stoichiometry, we leverage the existence of an optical absorption center, related to the oxidation state of Pr ions in Pr0.1Ce0.9O2-δ. The oxygen vacancy migration enthalpy was found to exhibit a small increase from 0.73± 0.04 to 0.79 ± 0.02 eV with increasing oxygen deficiency, while the pre-factor was found to increase by a factor of 135. Here, a nearly 13-fold increase in ionic mobility at 60 °C for increases in oxygen non-stoichiometry from 0.032 ± 0.001 to 0.042± 0.001 was thereby detected. Raman spectroscopy was employed to rule out changes in strain as the primary cause for the significant change in mobility. Several factors potentially contributing to the large pre-factor changes are examined and discussed. Insights into how ionic defect concentration can markedly impact ionic mobility should help in elucidating the origins of variations seen in nanoionic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fluorination-Enhanced Surface Stability of Cation-Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes for Li-Ion Batteries

Cation-disordered rocksalt (DRX) materials have emerged as a class of novel high-capacity cathodes for Li-ion batteries. However, commercialization of DRX cathodes will require reducing their capacity decay, which has been associated with oxygen loss during cycling. Recent studies have shown that fluorination of DRX cathodes can effectively reduce the oxygen loss and improve the cycling stability; however, the underlying atomic-scale mechanisms remain elusive. Herein, using a combination of electrochemical measurements, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and electron energy loss spectroscopy, we examine the correlation between the electrochemical properties and structural evolution in Mn-redox-based DRX cathodes, Li1.2Ti0.4-xMn0.4+xO2.0-xFx (x = 0 and 0.2). We find that fluorination strongly suppresses structural amorphization and void formation initiated from the particle surface, therefore greatly enhancing the cyclability of the cathode. We further reveal a novel rocksalt-to-spinel-like structural transformation in the DRX bulk, which surprisingly contributes to a gradual capacity increase during cycling. Our results provide important insight for the design of novel DRX cathodes with high capacity and long cycle life.

Li, Linze↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unconventional Spintronics from Chiral Perovskites

Spintronic devices typically employ heterostructures with ferromagnets which break time-reversal symmetry and have non-vanishing magnetization. With the growing class of materials that support spin-polarized carriers, current, and excitations, it is possible to envision emerging spintronic applications that are not limited to magnetoresistance. Here, chiral perovskites with no net magnetization are considered, where the space-inversion and mirror symmetries are broken to induce chiral structure. The known importance of these perovskites is further expanded by the demonstration of the chiral-induced spin selectivity (CISS). However, the generation of the spin-polarized carriers across the interface with these chiral perovskites remains to be fully understood. These first-principles studies for 2D PbBr4-based chiral perovskites provide their electronic structure and an orbital-based symmetry analysis, which allows to establish an effective Hamiltonian to elucidate the underlying origin of their chirality. The same analysis is used for the Edelstein effect, responsible for electrical generation of the nonequilibrium spin polarization in many materials, which in chiral perovskites can be a mechanism contributing to CISS. Furthermore, by examining optical properties of chiral perovskites and the opportunity to use them to realize tunable altermagnets, another class of zero-magnetization spintronic materials, a versatile materials platform is put forth for unconventional spintronics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Impact of Vacancy Diffusion on Void Dynamics at the Lithium Metal–Solid Electrolyte Interface

Lithium (Li) metal-based solid-state batteries (SSBs) are considered promising candidates for next-generation energy storage due to their superior energy density and enhanced safety compared to conventional Li-ion systems. However, their practical application is limited by challenges such as void formation at the Li-solid electrolyte (SE) interface, which disrupts ion transport and accelerates interfacial degradation. This work investigates how the coupled effects of electro-dissolution kinetics and surface diffusion at the Li metal surface govern the evolution of interfacial morphology during stripping. This work examines the influence of three distinct surface diffusion modes, which are terrace diffusion, step diffusion, and interlayer diffusion, on maintaining interfacial stability. In addition, how the dominant surface diffusion mechanism can overcome the contact loss due to high reaction kinetics is explored. Furthermore, the roughness of the Li metal anode surface is quantified, and the influence of different diffusion mechanisms on the evolution of the dynamic solid–solid interface is examined. The critical role of temperature in enhancing Li surface diffusivity and expanding the regime of stable contact is highlighted. By identifying distinct regimes of interface stability, this study analyzes how non-uniform electrochemical dynamics dictate void morphology evolution and interfacial contact. These insights offer guiding principles for engineering robust Li–SE interfaces in SSBs.

lithium metal anode↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comparative Study of Redox Mediators for Improved Performance of Li-Oxygen Batteries.

Redox meditators (RMs) are soluble catalysts located in an electrolyte that can improve the energy efficiency (reduced overpotential) and cyclability of Li-oxygen (Li-O-2) batteries. In this work, 20 RMs within a Li-O-2 system with dimethyl sulfoxide and tetraethylene glycol dimethyl ether electrolytes are studied and their electrochemical features such as redox potential, the separation of cathodic and anodic peaks, and their current intensities are measured using cyclic voltammetry (CV) experiments. Six RMs are selected as "primary" choices based on their electrochemical performance, and stability tests are then performed to examine their electrochemical responses after consecutive cycles. Moreover, galvanostatic cycling tests are performed within a Li-O-2 battery system assembled with selected six RMs for real case consistency investigations. It is found that results from CV to galvanostatic cycling tests are consistent for halides and organometallic RMs, where the former exhibit much higher stability. However, the organic RMs show high reversibility in CV but low in battery cycling results. Density functional theory calculations are carried out to gain more understanding of the stability and redox potentials of the RMs. This study provides comparative information to select the most reliable RMs for Li-O-2 batteries along with new fundamental understanding of their electrochemical activity and stability.

cyclic voltammetry↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Quinone-Based Catholytes for Aqueous Redox Flow Batteries and Demonstration of Long-Term Stability with Tetrasubstituted Quinones

Quinones are appealing targets as organic electrolytes for aqueous redox flow batteries (RFBs), but their utility continues to be constrained by limited stability under operating conditions. The present study evaluates the stability of a series water-soluble quinones, with redox potentials ranging from 605–885 mV vs. NHE, under acidic aqueous conditions (1 M H2SO4). Four of the quinones are examined as cathodic electrolytes in an aqueous RFB, paired with anthraquinone-2,7-disulfonate (AQDS) as the anodic electrolyte. The RFB data complement the solution stability measures and show that the most stable electrolyte is a tetrasubstituted quinone containing four sulfonated thioether substituents. The results highlight the importance of substituting all C–H positions of the quinone in order to maximize the quinone stability and set the stage for design of improve organic electrolytes for aqueous RFBs. The authors thank Joseph Fourie for assisting in the synthesis of compound 8. Financial support for this work was provided by the Center for Molecular Electrocatalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences (SSS, TWR, JBG, CWA, YP), with supplemental contributions by the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation (WARF) through the WARF Accelerator Program (YQ and partial support for JBG, CWA, YP). NMR spectroscopy facilities were partially supported by the NSF (CHE-0342998 and CHE-1048642), a UW Madison Instructional Laboratory Modernization Award, and a gift from Paul J. and Margaret M. Bender.

aqueous flow batteries, quinones, organic, redox m↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Comparisons for Artificially Propagated and Wild Pacific Lamprey Juveniles and Larvae

ABSTRACT Artificially propagated Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) are produced for restoration and for use in dam passage studies to reduce the demand for wild fish. Such uses require that animals are representative of their wild counterparts. Previous work indicated that this is true for Pacific lamprey larvae and juveniles reared in the hatchery with respect to the length of sustained swimming. However, more subtle differences in behaviour and performance that lamprey need to survive have not been assessed. In this study, artificially propagated and wild fish were compared in laboratory tests under no‐flow conditions to examine light avoidance, burrowing speed, burst swim speed, volitional routine swim speed and time to come to rest. Most larvae burrowed in less than a minute, and we found highly significant differences ( p < 0.001) between artificially propagated and wild larvae burrowing times, a critical escape behaviour. This could have implications for studies of larval entrainment at irrigation diversion canals or in turbine boils at dams. Interestingly, all of the wild juveniles tested came to rest quickly after introduction to the chamber (1.5 min), while artificially propagated lamprey swam robotically near the surface and 48% did not come to rest in the first 10 min (median time to rest = 9.5 min). In contrast, wild juveniles quickly (median = 1.47 min) sought areas near the tank bottom and attached strongly with their oral disc. Such behavioural differences could have important survival consequences for artificially propagated lamprey as they approach turbine intakes, bypass screens and irrigation diversion headgates. This study highlights the need to conduct behavioural assays that examine subtleties of fish behaviour that can be missed with traditional swim tunnel comparisons.

Frick, Kinsey [Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fi↗

DOE OSTI2022

Association of clonal hematopoiesis mutations with clinical outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) mutations are common among individuals without known hematologic disease. CH mutations have been associated with numerous adverse clinical outcomes across many different studies. We systematically reviewed the available literature for clinical outcomes associated with CH mutations in patients without hematologic disease. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus for eligible studies. Three investigators independently extracted the data, and each study was verified by a second author. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We identified 32 studies with 56 cohorts that examine the association between CH mutations and clinical outcomes. We conducted meta-analyses comparing outcomes among individuals with and without detectable CH mutations. We conducted meta-analyses for cardiovascular diseases (nine studies; HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.26–2.07, p = .0002), hematologic malignancies (seven studies; HR = 5.59, 95% CI = 3.31–9.45, p < .0001), therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (four studies; HR = 7.55, 95% CI = 4.3–13.57, p < .001), and death (nine studies; HR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.2–1.5, p < .0001). The cardiovascular disease analysis was further stratified by variant allele fraction (VAF) and gene, which showed a statistically significant association only with a VAF of ≥ 10% (HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.24–1.62, p < .0001), as well as statistically significant associations for each gene examined with the largest magnitude of effect found for CH mutations in JAK2 (HR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.84–6.68, p < .0001). Analysis of the association of CH mutations with hematologic malignancy demonstrated a numeric stepwise increase in risk with increasing VAF thresholds. This analysis strongly supports the association of CH mutations with a clinically meaningful increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes among individuals without hematologic disease, particularly with increasing VAF thresholds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering a CF 3 Effect on X‐ray Absorption Energies of [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − and Related Copper Compounds by Using Resonant Diffraction Anomalous Fine Structure (DAFS) Measurements**

Abstract Understanding the electronic structures of high‐valent metal complexes aids the advancement of metal‐catalyzed cross coupling methodologies. A prototypical complex with formally high valency is [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − (1), which has a formal Cu(III) oxidation state but whose physical analysis has led some to a Cu(I) assignment in an inverted ligand field model. Recent examinations of1by X‐ray spectroscopies have led previous authors to contradictory conclusions, motivating the re‐examination of its X‐ray absorption profile here by a complementary method, resonant diffraction anomalous fine structure (DAFS). From analysis of DAFS measurements for a series of seven mononuclear Cu complexes including1, here it is shown that there is a systematic trifluoromethyl effect on X‐ray absorption that blue shifts the resonant Cu K‐edge energy by 2–3 eV per CF 3 , completely accounting for observed changes in DAFS profiles between formally Cu(III) complexes like1and formally Cu(I) complexes like (Ph 3 P) 3 CuCF 3 (3). Thus, in agreement with the inverted ligand field model, the data presented herein imply that1is best described as containing a Cu(I) ion with d n count approaching 10.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interlaminar improvement of carbon fiber/epoxy composites via fluorine‐containing high‐epoxy‐value sizing agent

Abstract To improve the interfacial bonding effect of carbon fibers (CFs) and epoxy resins, we prepared a fluorine‐containing high‐epoxy‐value sizing agent (named TS) in this article. It is an emulsion with a more uniform particle size distribution and higher stability better than a commercial Takemoto sizing agent. In addition, sulfonic acid groups can improve the hydrophilicity of the TS, and the presence of epoxy groups enhances the wettability between CFs and the matrix. The properties of the sizing agents were examined by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering, and thermogravimetric analysis. The sized CFs were evaluated by scanning electron microscopy, x‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, monofilament tensile test, and dynamic contact angle. Afterward, CF/epoxy composites were prepared, and their fracture morphology and interlaminar shear strength (ILSS) were examined. Results indicated that the TS sizing significantly increased the content of activated carbon on the surface of the CFs and improved the bonding effect between the fiber and the matrix. After TS was sized, the ILSS increased from 49.64 to 58.74 MPa, 18.34% higher than unsized CF/epoxy composites, showing the prominent interfacial reinforcement better than commercial Takemoto.

Qiu, Zhijie↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hijacking a rapid and scalable metagenomic method reveals subgenome dynamics and evolution in polyploid plants

Premise: The genomes of polyploid plants archive the evolutionary events leading to their present forms. However, plant polyploid genomes present numerous hurdles to the genome comparison algorithms for classification of polyploid types and exploring genome dynamics. Methods: Here, the problem of intra- and inter-genome comparison for examining polyploid genomes is reframed as a metagenomic problem, enabling the use of the rapid and scalable MinHashing approach. To determine how types of polyploidy are described by this metagenomic approach, plant genomes were examined from across the polyploid spectrum for both k-mer composition and frequency with a range of k-mer sizes. In this approach, no subgenome-specific k-mers are identified; rather, whole-chromosome k-mer subspaces were utilized. Results: Given chromosome-scale genome assemblies with sufficient subgenome-specific repetitive element content, literature-verified subgenomic and genomic evolutionary relationships were revealed, including distinguishing auto- from allopolyploidy and putative progenitor genome assignment. The sequences responsible were the rapidly evolving landscape of transposable elements. An investigation into the MinHashing parameters revealed that the downsampled k-mer space (genomic signatures) produced excellent approximations of sequence similarity. Furthermore, the clustering approach used for comparison of the genomic signatures is scrutinized to ensure applicability of the metagenomics-based method. Discussion: The easily implementable and highly computationally efficient MinHashing-based sequence comparison strategy enables comparative subgenomics and genomics for large and complex polyploid plant genomes. Such comparisons provide evidence for polyploidy-type subgenomic assignments. In cases where subgenome-specific repeat signal may not be adequate given a chromosomes' global k-mer profile, alternative methods that are more specific but more computationally complex outperform this approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Urban relatives ameliorate survival disparities for genitourinary cancer in rural patients

Patients living in rural areas have worse cancer-specific outcomes. This study examines the effect of family-based social capital on genitourinary cancer survival. We hypothesized that rural patients with urban relatives have improved survival relative to rural patients without urban family. We examined rural and urban based Utah individuals diagnosed with genitourinary cancers between 1968 and 2018. Familial networks were determined using the Utah Population Database. Patients and relatives were classified as rural or urban based on 2010 rural–urban commuting area codes. Overall survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 24,746 patients with genitourinary cancer with a median follow-up of 8.72 years. Rural cancer patients without an urban relative had the worst outcomes with cancer-specific survival hazard ratios (HRs) at 5 and 10 years of 1.33 (95% CI 1.10–1.62) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.24–1.73), respectively relative to urban patients. Rural patients with urban first-degree relatives had improved survival with 5- and 10-year survival HRs of 1.21 (95% CI 1.06–1.40) and 1.16 (95% CI 1.03–1.31), respectively. Our findings suggest rural patients who have been diagnosed with a genitourinary cancer have improved survival when having relatives in urban centers relative to rural patients without urban relatives. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms through which having an urban family member contributes to improved cancer outcomes for rural patients. Better characterization of this affect may help inform policies to reduce urban–rural cancer disparities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mononuclear to Polynuclear U(IV) Structural Units: Effects of Reaction Conditions on U-Furoate Phase Formation

In this work, Uranium(IV) complexation by 2-furoic acid was examined to better understand the effects of ligand identity and reaction conditions on species formation and stability. Five compounds were isolated: [UCl 2 (2-FA) 2 (H 2 O) 2 ] n (1), [U 4 Cl 10 O 2 (THF) 6 (2-FA) 2 ]•2(THF) (2), [U 6 O 4 (OH) 4 (H 2 O) 3 (2-FA) 12 ]•7(THF)•(H 2 O) (3), [U 6 O 4 (OH) 4 (H 2 O) 2 (2-FA) 12 ]•8.76(H 2 O) (4), and [U 38 Cl 42 O 54 (OH) 2 (H 2 O) 20 ]•m(H 2 O)•n(THF) (5). The structures were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction and further characterized by Raman, IR, and optical absorption spectroscopy. The thermal stability and magnetic behavior of the compounds were also examined. Variations in the synthetic conditions led to notable differences in the structural units observed in the solid state. At low H 2 O/THF ratios, a tetranuclear oxo bridged [U 4 O 2 ] core was isolated. Aging of this solution resulted in the formation a U 38 oxo cluster capped by chloro and water ligands. However, at increasing water concentrations only hexanuclear units were observed. In all cases, at temperatures of 100-120 °C, UO 2 nanoparticles formed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Water Vapor on the Electrochemical Shift of an Ionic Liquid Measured by Ambient Pressure X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy

Ionic liquids (ILs) are considered to be one of the steppingstones to fabricate next generation electrochemical devices given their unique physical and chemical properties. The addition of water to ILs significantly impact electrochemical related properties including viscosity, density, conductivity, and electrochemical window. Here, we utilize ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (APXPS) to examine the impact of water on values of the electrochemical shift (S), which is determined by measuring changes in binding energy shifts as a function of an external bias. APXPS spectra of C 1s, O 1s and N 1s regions are examined for the IL 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate, [C 4 mim][OAc], at the IL/gas interface as a function of both water vapor pressure and external bias. Results reveal that in the absence of water vapor there is an IL ohmic drop between the working electrode and quasi reference electrode, giving rise to chemical specific S values of less than one. Upon introducing water vapor, S values approach one as a function of increasing water vapor pressure, indicating a decrease in the IL ohmic drop as the IL/water mixture becomes more conductive and the potential drop is driven by the electric double layer at the electrode/IL interface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Surface Terminations on the Initial Stages of TiO 2 Deposition on Functionalized Silicon

As atomic layer deposition (ALD) emerges as a method to fabricate architectures with atomic precision, emphasis is placed on understanding surface reactions and nucleation mechanisms. ALD of titanium dioxide with TiCl 4 and water has been used to investigate deposition processes in general, but the effect of surface termination on the initial TiO 2 nucleation lacks needed mechanistic insights. Here, this work examines the adsorption of TiCl 4 on Cl–, H–, and HO– terminated Si(100) and Si(111) surfaces to elucidate the general role of different surface structures and defect types in manipulating surface reactivity of growth and non-growth substrates. The surface sites and their role in the initial stages of deposition are examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Density functional theory (DFT) computations of the local functionalized silicon surfaces suggest oxygen-containing defects are primary drivers of selectivity loss on these surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetics and Mechanisms of ZnO to ZIF-8 Transformations in Supercritical CO2 Revealed by in situ X-ray Diffraction

ZIF-8 was synthesized in supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2). In situ powder X-ray diffraction, ex situ microscopy and simulations, provides a encompassing view of the formation of ZIF-8 and intermediary ZnO@ZIF-8 composites in this nontraditional solvent. Time-resolved imaging exposed divergent physicochemical reaction pathways from previous studies of the growth of anisotropic ZIF-8 core@shell structures in traditional solvents. Synthetically relevant physio-chemical properties of scCO2 were integrated into classical nucleation theory, relating interfacial forces with 3D nu-cleation outcomes. The kinetics of crystallization were examined and displayed a characteristic signature of time- and temperature-dependent mechanisms over the extent of the reaction. Lastly, we show that subtle factors, such as the extent of reaction and the size/shape of sacrificial templates can tailor ZIF-8 composition and size, eliciting control over hierarchical porosity in a nonconventional green solvent.

Sinnwell, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

Abstract The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ s ). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.

Baer, Kathryn C.↗