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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discontinuous micro-fibers as intrinsic reinforcement for ductile Engineered Cementitious Composites (ECC)

Engineered Cementitious Composites (ECC) have demonstrated superior mechanical and durability performance than conventional concrete. In the micromechanical reinforcing system of ECC, fibers play a pivotal role in establishing the ultrahigh tensile ductility and autogenous crack width control. This article reviews the state-of-the-art of discontinuous micro-fibers as intrinsic reinforcement of ECC regarding technical performance as well as environmental and economic impacts. Mechanical properties of ECC made with different micro-fibers, man-made or natural, and their embodied energy, emissions and material cost, are comprehensively surveyed. Further, studies on fiber hybridization are discussed regarding the combination of different types of fibers to form synergetic reinforcements that mitigate total material cost, and potentially enhance the composite performance. Lastly, recommendations on fiber selections are highlighted and directions for future research are suggested.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Possible impacts of molten salt reactors on the International Monitoring System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are gaining support as many countries look for ways to increase power generation and replace aging nuclear energy production facilities. MSRs have inherently safe designs, are scalable in size, can burn transuranic wastes from traditional solid fuel nuclear reactors, can store excess heat in thermal reservoirs for water desalination, and can be used to produce medical isotopes as part of the real-time liquid-fuel recycling process. The ability to remove 135 Xe in real time from the fuel improves the power production in an MSR because 135 Xe is the most significant neutron-absorbing isotope generated by nuclear fission. Xenon-135, and other radioactive gases, are removed by sparging the fuel with an inert gas while the liquid fuel is recirculated from the reactor inner core through the heat exchangers. Without effective abatement technologies, large amounts of radioactive gas could be released during the sparging process. This work examines the potential impact of radioxenon releases on samplers used by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect nuclear explosions. Here, atmospheric transport simulations from seven hypothetical MSRs on different continents were used to evaluate the holdup time needed before release of radioxenon so IMS samplers would register few detections. Abatement technologies that retain radioxenon isotopes for at least 120 d before their release will be needed to mitigate the impacts from a molten salt breeder reactor used to replace a nuclear power plant. A holdup time of about 150 d is needed to reduce emissions to the average level of current nuclear power plants.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angle-resolved polarimetry of hybrid perovskite emission for photonic technologies

Coupling between light and matter strongly depends on the polarization of the electromagnetic field and the nature of excitations in a material. As hybrid perovskites emerge as a promising class of materials for light-based technologies such as LEDs, LASERs, and photodetectors, it is critical to understand how their microstructure changes the intrinsic properties of the photon emission process. While the majority of optical studies have focused on the spectral content, quantum efficiency and lifetimes of emission in various hybrid perovskite thin films and nanostructures, few studies have investigated other properties of the emitted photons such as polarization and emission angle. Here, we use angle-resolved cathodoluminescence microscopy to access the full polarization state of photons emitted from large-grain hybrid perovskite films with spatial resolution well below the optical diffraction limit. In this work, mapping these Stokes parameters as a function of the angle at which the photons are emitted from the thin film surface, we reveal the effect of a grain boundary on the degree of polarization and angle at which the photons are emitted. Such studies of angle- and polarization-resolved emission at the single grain level are necessary for future development of perovskite-based flat optics, where effects of grain boundaries and interfaces need to be mitigated.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emission of electromagnetic waves as a stopping mechanism for nonlinear collisionless ionization waves in a high-β regime

A high energy density plasma embedded in a neutral gas is able to launch an outward-propagating nonlinear electrostatic ionization wave that traps energetic electrons. The trapping maintains a strong sheath electric field, enabling rapid and long-lasting wave propagation aided by field ionization. Here, using 1D3V kinetic simulations, we examine the propagation of the ionization wave in the presence of a transverse MG-level magnetic field with the objective to identify qualitative changes in a regime where the initial thermal pressure of the plasma exceeds the pressure of the magnetic field (Beta > 1). Our key finding is that the magnetic field stops the propagation by causing the energetic electrons sustaining the wave to lose their energy by emitting an electromagnetic wave. The emission is accompanied by the magnetic field expulsion from the plasma and an increased electron loss from the trapping wave structure. The described effect provides a mechanism mitigating rapid plasma expansion for those applications that involve an embedded plasma, such as high-flux neutron production from laser-irradiated deuterium gas jets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of earth albedo effect on sun sensor measurements based on theoretical model and mission experience

Analysis of flight data from previous missions indicates that anomalous Sun sensor readings could be caused by Earth albedo interference. A previous Sun sensor study presented a detailed mathematical model of this effect. The model can be used to study the effect of both diffusive and specular reflections and to improve Sun angle determination based on perturbed Sun sensor measurements, satellite position, and an approximate knowledge of attitude. The model predicts that diffuse reflected light can cause errors of up to 10 degrees in Coarse Sun Sensor (CSS) measurements and 5 to 10 arc sec in Fine Sun Sensor (FSS) measurements, depending on spacecraft orbit and attitude. The accuracy of these sensors is affected as long as part of the illuminated Earth surface is present in the sensor field of view. Digital Sun Sensors (DSS) respond in a different manner to the Earth albedo interference. Most of the time DSS measurements are not affected, but for brief periods of time the Earth albedo can cause errors which are a multiple of the sensor least significant bit and may exceed one degree. This paper compares model predictions with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) CSS measurements in order to validate and refine the model. Methods of reducing and mitigating the impact of Earth albedo are discussed. ne CSS sensor errors are roughly proportional to the Earth albedo coefficient. Photocells that are sensitive only to ultraviolet emissions would reduce the effective Earth albedo by up to a thousand times, virtually eliminating all errors caused by Earth albedo interference.

Brasoveanu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using convolutional neural networks to detect edge localized modes in DIII-D from Doppler backscattering measurements

In H-mode tokamak plasmas, the plasma is sometimes ejected beyond the edge transport barrier. These events are known as edge localized modes (ELMs). ELMs cause a loss of energy and damage the vessel walls. Understanding the physics of ELMs, and by extension, how to detect and mitigate them, is an important challenge. In this paper, we focus on two diagnostic methods—deuterium-alpha (D α ) spectroscopy and Doppler backscattering (DBS). The former detects ELMs by measuring Balmer alpha emission, while the latter uses microwave radiation to probe the plasma. DBS has the advantages of having a higher temporal resolution and robustness to damage. These advantages of DBS diagnostic may be beneficial for future operational tokamaks, and thus, data processing techniques for DBS should be developed in preparation. In sight of this, we explore the training of neural networks to detect ELMs from DBS data, using D α data as the ground truth. With shots found in the DIII-D database, the model is trained to classify each time step based on the occurrence of an ELM event. The results are promising. When tested on shots similar to those used for training, the model is capable of consistently achieving a high f1-score of 0.93. Furthermore, this score is a performance metric for imbalanced datasets that ranges between 0 and 1. We evaluate the performance of our neural network on a variety of ELMs in different high confinement regimes (grassy ELM, RMP mitigated, and wide-pedestal), finding broad applicability. Beyond ELMs, our work demonstrates the wider feasibility of applying neural networks to data from DBS diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

FOULING MITIGATION FOR LASER IGNITERS IN NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Due to several recent developments in lasers and optics, laser igniters can now be designed to be (i) compact so as to have the same footprint as a standard spark plug, (ii) have low power draw, usually less than 50 Watts, and (iii) have vibration and temperature resistance at levels typical of reciprocating engines. Primary advantages of these laser igniters remain (i) extension of lean or dilution limits for ignition of combustible mixtures, and (ii) improved ignition at higher pressures. Recently, tests performed in a 350 kW six-cylinder stationary natural gas reciprocating engine retrofitted with these igniters showed an extension of the operational envelope to yield efficiency improvements of the order of 2.6% points while being compliant with the mandated emission regulations. Even though laser igniters offer promise, fouling of the final optical element that introduces the laser into the combustion chamber is of concern. After performing a thorough literature search, a test plan was devised to evaluate various fouling mitigation strategies. The final approach that was used is a combination of three strategies and helped sustain an optical transmissivity exceeding 98% even after 1500 h of continuous engine operation at 2400 rpm. Based on the observed trend in transmissivity, it now appears that laser igniters can last up to 6000 h of continuous engine operation in a stationary engine running at 1800 rpm.

spark ignited engines, laser ignition, natural gas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance of an Isobaric Hybrid Compressed Air Energy Storage System at Minimum Entropy Generation

Efficient, large-scale, and cost-effective energy storage systems provide a means of managing the inherent intermittency of renewable energy sources and drastically increasing their utilization. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) and its derivative architectures have received much attention as a viable solution; however, optimization objectives for these systems have not been thoroughly investigated in the literature. In this work, a hybrid thermal and compressed air energy storage (HT-CAES) system is investigated that mitigates the shortcomings of the otherwise attractive conventional CAES systems and its derivatives—shortcomings such as strict geological locations, low energy densities, and the production of greenhouse gas emissions. The HT-CAES system allows a portion of the available energy to operate a compressor and the remainder to be converted and stored in the form of heat through joule/resistive heating in a high-temperature, sensible, thermal energy storage medium. Internally reversible and irreversible HT-CAES system assumptions were investigated, in addition to regenerative and non-regenerative design configurations. Several system optimization criteria were examined—including maximum energy efficiency, maximum exergy efficiency, maximum work output, and minimum entropy generation—with a focus on whether the latter may lead to conclusive design guidelines in a real system. It is shown that an HT-CAES system designed based on a minimum entropy generation objective may operate at a lower energy and exergy efficiency as well as lower output power than otherwise achievable. Furthermore, optimization objective equivalence is shown to be limited to certain design conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Electric Vehicle Charging Stations as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy

In order to facilitate the use of electric vehicles at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), charging stations should be made available to LaRC employees. The implementation of charging stations would decrease the need for gasoline thus decreasing CO2 emissions improving local air quality and providing a cost savings for LaRC employees. A charging station pilot program is described that would install stations as the need increased and also presents a business model that pays for the electricity used and installation at no cost to the government.

Cave, Bridget↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90 of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Kigali Amendment↗
NASA NTRS2017

India Is Overtaking China as the World's Largest Emitter of Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide

Severe haze is a major public health concern in China and India. Both countries rely heavily on coal for energy, and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted from coal-fired power plants and industry is a major pollutant contributing to their air quality problems. Timely, accurate information on SO2 sources is a required input to air quality models for pollution prediction and mitigation. However, such information has been difficult to obtain for these two countries, as fast-paced changes in economy and environmental regulations have often led to unforeseen emission changes. Here we use satellite observations to show that China and India are on opposite trajectories for sulfurous pollution. Since 2007, emissions in China have declined by 75 percent while those in India have increased by 50 percent. With these changes, India is now surpassing China as the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic SO2. This finding, not predicted by emission scenarios, suggests effective SO2 control in China and lack thereof in India. Despite this, haze remains severe in China, indicating the importance of reducing emissions of other pollutants. In India, approximately 33 million people now live in areas with substantial SO2 pollution. Continued growth in emissions will adversely affect more people and further exacerbate morbidity and mortality.

air pollution↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

There are many challenges involved in deep-space exploration, but several of these can be mitigated, or even solved, by the development of a coating that can reject most of the Sun's energy and yet still provide some far-infrared heat emission. Such a coating would allow non-heat-generating objects in space to reach cryogenic temperatures without using an active cooling system. This would be a benefit to deep-space sensors that require low temperatures, such as the James Webb Telescope focal plane array. It would also allow the use of superconductors in deep space, which could lead to magnetic energy storage rings, lossless power delivery, or perhaps a large-volume magnetic shield against galactic cosmic radiation. But perhaps the most significant enablement achieved from such a coating would be the long-term storage in deep space of cryogenic liquids, such as liquid oxygen (LOX).In this report, we review the state of the art in low-temperature coatings and calculate the lowest temperatures each of these can achieve, demonstrating that cryogenic temperatures cannot be reached in deep space in this fashion. We then propose a new coating that does allow coated objects in deep space to achieve the very low temperatures required to store liquid oxygen or nitrogen. These new coatings consist of a moderately thick scattering layer (typically 5 mm) composed of a material transparent to most of the solar spectrum. This layer acts as a scatterer to the Sun's light, performing the same process as titanium dioxide in white paint in the visible. Under that layer, we place a metallic reflector, e.g. silver, to reflect long-wave radiation that is not well scattered. The result is a coating we call "Solar White," in that it scatters most of the solar spectrum just as white paint does for the visible. Our modeling of these coatings has shown that temperatures as low as 50 K can be reached for a coated object fully exposed to sunlight at 1 AU from the Sun and far from the Earth.In the second half of the report we explore a mission application of this coating in order to show that it allows LOX to be carried on a mission to Mars. Heat can reach a LOX tank in five ways: direct radiation from the Sun, scattered or reflected radiation from the Sun off of spacecraft components, radiation from nearby planets or the Moon, radiation from the infrared emission of other parts of the spacecraft, and conduction along support struts and flow lines. We discuss these and sum their total contribution when using a Solar White coating to demonstrate an architecture that allows the transportation of LOX to Mars. After this, other applications of Solar White are listed.

Cryogenic Materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural Gas as a Decarbonization Strategy

The purpose of this work is to evaluate methane mitigation strategies for the existing natural gas supply chain and blending scenarios of hydrogen and renewable natural gas with the existing natural gas stream. Results focus on estimated emission reduction potential for decarbonization of the natural gas supply chain.

Mumm, Katherine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗