Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system
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The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.
Pulp and paper (P&P) manufacturing requires a large amount of low-pressure (LP) steam to digest, wash wood fibers and dry pulp into paper. Most of the LP steam is extracted from backpressure turbines that produce power from high-pressure (HP) steam. This HP steam is generated from burning wood waste material; bark is burned in hog boilers, and lignin is boiled in a black liquor recovery boiler. In a typical integrated P&P mill, 50–100% of the steam is produced from these sources, while additional steam is produced in natural gas (NG), fuel oil, or coal boilers. The other energy-intensive process in the plant is the chemical-recovery section (e.g., lime kiln), which requires high-temperature processing from NG combustion to retrieve and recirculate spent chemicals. This paper assesses the energy and heat demand and material balances of a typical generic kraft pulp mill, along with the nuclear heat, steam, and power integration opportunities to replace conventional combustion systems. The paper also addresses steam and electricity generation through a comprehensive technical and engineering gap analysis of five different nuclear-integration opportunities and their process economics, thus enabling the lignin and bark to be further processed into biobased chemicals or fuels, as well as the potential to reduce overall emissions from kraft pulping. Preliminary findings have shown that the P&P industry could achieve technological benefits by integrating their current manufacturing process with small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) on a national level. This research aims to set the path forward for a cleaner and more resilient P&P industry.
Direct air capture (DAC) systems require heat and electricity to operate, which can be supplied by nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this study, the performance and cost of various conceptual nuclear-DAC systems are assessed, and their performance is compared with several non-nuclear options. Three nuclear-DAC systems are considered: (1) a liquid solvent direct air capture (L-DAC) system with heat supplied from natural gas (NG) and electricity supplied by an NPP, (2) an electrified L-DAC system, fully powered by electricity from an NPP, and (3) a solid sorbent direct air capture (S-DAC) system utilizing both heat and electricity generated by an NPP. Two nuclear technologies are considered: a pressurized water reactor and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. Under the medium conservatism scenario, the levelized cost of direct air capture (LCOD) for these systems range from $\$$310/tCO 2 to $\$$525/tCO 2 with the L-DAC system having an NG heat supply at the lower end of the range, and the electrified L-DAC system and the S-DAC system at the higher end of the range. Coupling with nuclear energy led to a 21 % reduction in LCOD for the L-DAC system with NG heat supply and a 29 % reduction for the S-DAC system when compared to fully NG-powered options. When powering the DAC system with grid electricity, the LCOD is highly dependent on the assumed electricity price and carbon intensity. The nuclear option is the cheaper choice when the price of low-carbon grid electricity exceeds $\$$95/MWh and $\$$45/MWh for the L-DAC and S-DAC systems, respectively.
Maritime ports are entering a period of sharply rising electricity demand as operations are electrified, shore power adoption grows, and energy-intensive industries expand near ports. This report evaluates the feasibility of small nuclear reactors at U.S. ports, which could offer stable baseload power and reduced dependence on regional grids. The report describes the current state of advanced reactor technologies and other factors important for future deployment such as safety and operations, siting requirements, regulatory environments and policy, and other co-benefit considerations. A structured evaluation across a diverse group of U.S. ports highlights the wide variation in feasibility. Fifteen ports were analyzed through port interviews and data collection to assess the port-specific conditions that most impact advanced reactor deployment. The analysis found that the most feasible ports for deployment have favorable geotechnical stability, supportive regulatory environments, and substantial energy loads in a grid-constrained environment. Additionally, an initial reactor size matching was done for the ports based on their reported energy consumption across different modes of operation. However, further analysis and detailed data will be required in the future to determine the optimal reactor-port matching. The economic viability to adopt this technology will be dictated by competitive cost of nuclear-generated electricity compared to other alternatives. Overall, small nuclear reactors present a promising but highly site-dependent pathway for ports seeking resilient, high-capacity energy solutions that support future energy demands. This report identifies key areas for future research and highlights ports that warrant further evaluation to assess the viability of small nuclear reactor implementation. By establishing these priorities, the analysis provides support for the development of informed strategies for potential advanced nuclear technology deployment. The inclusion of ports in this report does not imply their endorsement of nuclear energy generation, and the authors are grateful for the information, expertise, and perspectives they contributed.
The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.
LIDAR techniques have been successfully applied to the detection of the Raman backscatter from S02 in the plume of a 200 megawatt coal-burning electrical- generating plant from a distance of 210 meters. The LIDAR system used consists of a 61-centimeter-diameter, f /4 Newtonian telescope and a 1.0-1.5-joules per pulse, 1-pulse-per-second ruby laser. Narrow band interference filters are used to select the 7546-angstrom v (sub 1) vibrational line of S02. The signal from a photomultiplier tube was sequentially applied to each 254-nanosecond-wide channel of a 15-cihannel photon counting system, resulting in a direct correlation between channel number and range increment. Photon counts were accumulated from the backscatter of a number of laser pulses (typically 50 or 100), and the accumulated counts per channel printed on paper tape. One sequence of measurements was made during a two-hour period while the plant electrical output was being reduced by approximately 50 percent. Although the Raman system had not been quantitatively calibrated, the LIDAR data correlated well with the varying plant electrical output. N2 scattering observations were also made and an approximate quantitative S02 concentration obtained by ratioing the S02 data to N2 data. This ratio compared well to the in-situ measurements made during the same period by Environmental Protection Agency sampling instruments.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.
Increasing use of renewable energy requires sufficient grid flexibility to address uncertainty and variability in electricity generation. Previous studies suggest that combined heat and power (CHP) systems may support grid flexibility but they do not consider operating hours. In this paper, we used CHP operating data and determined annual and monthly availability of the installed CHP capacity from various sectors (e.g., utility, independent power producer, commercial, and industrial) in all seven U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Also, we estimated hourly CHP availability installed in five facility types (i.e., hospitals, universities, hotels, offices, and manufacturing) in the state of New York. The results show that regardless of ISO/RTO, sector, or season, more than 40% of the installed CHP capacity (0.7–8.7 GW) was not fully utilized in 2019; the results are similar for 2018. This available CHP capacity accounted for up to 9% of the ISO/RTO's peak electric demand, which may yield cost savings up to $16 billion by avoiding installation costs of new natural gas combustion or combined-cycle turbines. To exploit the available CHP capacity to enhance grid flexibility, we recommend different policy implications including flexible contract lengths between CHP owners and grid operators, improved market designs, and simplified interconnection standards.
Cantilever type piezoelectric harvesters, such as bimorphs, are typically used for vibration induced energy harvesting. However, a major drawback of a piezoelectric bimorph is its brittle nature in harsh environments, resulting in short life-times as well as output power degradation. The emphasis in this work is to design robust, highly efficient piezoelectric harvesters that are capable of generating electrical power in the milliwatt range. Various harvesters have been modeled, designed and prototyped, and the flextensional actuator based harvester, where the metal cantilever is mounted and coupled between two flextensional actuators, was found to be a viable alternative to the cantilever type piezoelectric harvesters. Preliminary tests showed that these devices equipped with 5x5x36 mm two piezoelectric PZT stacks can produce greater than 50 mW of power under air flow induced vibrations.
Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.
This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been extensively used for wind energy applications, and current releases include a scheme that can be applied to examine the effects of wind turbine arrays on the atmospheric flow and electricity generation from wind turbines. Herein we present a high-resolution simulation using two different wind farm parameterizations: 1) the “Fitch” parameterization that is included in WRF releases and 2) the recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP) scheme. We compare the schemes using a single yearlong simulation for a domain centered on the highest density of current turbine deployments in the contiguous United States (Iowa). Pairwise analyses are applied to diagnose the downstream wake effects and impact of wind turbine arrays on near-surface climate conditions. On average, use of the EWP scheme results in small-magnitude wake effects within wind farm arrays and faster recovery of full WT array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller impacts on near-surface climate variables and reduced array–array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to summertime capacity factors (i.e., the electrical power produced relative to nameplate installed capacity) that are 2%–3% higher than those from the more commonly applied Fitch parameterization. It is currently not possible to make recommendations with regard to which wind farm parameterization exhibits higher fidelity or to draw inferences with regard to whether the relative performance may vary with prevailing climate conditions and/or wind turbine deployment configuration. However, the sensitivities documented herein to the wind farm parameterization are of sufficient magnitude to potentially influence wind turbine array siting decisions. Thus, our research findings imply high value in undertaking combined long-term high-fidelity observational studies in support of model validation and verification.
Pumped-thermal energy storage (PTES) systems consume and produce electrical energy using thermal storage media as an intermediate stage. PTES lends itself to long-duration energy storage to facilitate high penetration of intermittent electricity generation. This study presents a model-based comparison of two thermal storage types within a PTES system: a conventional, single-phase, stratified water-glycol sensible storage system (SGS), and an ideal isothermal, two-phase heat exchanger that freezes a water reservoir (isothermal heat exchanger (IHEX)). The SGS thermal storage capacity is based on the liquid’s sensible heat change with temperature, whereas the capacity of the IHEX is based on the latent heat of isothermally freezing and melting water. The idealized IHEX modeled here undergoes steady-state melting and freezing (in contrast to transient rates, as observed with ice-on-coil storage). A computational model of a complete PTES system is presented and used to evaluate the PTES system-level performance with each type of cold storage. Compared to SGS-based PTES, under nominal operating conditions, the IHEX-based PTES increased electrical round-trip efficiency from 61% to 82% and increased energy density from 1.13 to 8.09 kWh/m 3 In conclusion, the performance of the PTES configured with IHEX storage was also analyzed under varying operating parameters.
The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation - especially from wind and solar - is growing rapidly, and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost, security, and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability, creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system. This is the focus of H2@Scale - a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications, such as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility, a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks, benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21 st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them, first, by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e., if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus, it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance, but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second, we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.
Conversion of solar energy into electricity using environmentally safe and clean photovoltaic methods to supplement the ever increasing energy needs has been a cherished goal of many scientists and engineers around the world. Photovoltaic solar cells on the other hand, have been the power source for satellites ever since their introduction in the early sixties. For widespread terrestrial applications, however, the cost of photovoltaic systems must be reduced considerably. Much progress has been made in the recent past towards developing economically viable terrestrial systems, and the future looks highly promising. Thin film solar cells offer cost reductions mainly from their low processing cost, low material cost, and choice of low cost substrates. These are also very attractive for space applications because of their high power densities (power produced per kilogram of solar cell pay load) and high radiation resistance. Amorphous silicon based solar cells are amongst the top candidates for economically viable terrestrial and space based power generation. Despite very low federal funding during the eighties, amorphous silicon solar cell efficiencies have continually been improved - from a low 3 percent to over 13 percent now. Further improvements have been made by the use of multi-junction tandem solar cells. Efficiencies close to 15 percent have been achieved in several labs. In order to be competitive with fossil fuel generated electricity, it is believed that module efficiency of 15 percent or cell efficiency of 20 percent is required. Thus, further improvements in cell performance is imperative. One major problem that was discovered almost 15 years ago in amorphous silicon devices is the well known Staebler-Wronski Effect. Efficiency of amorphous silicon solar cells was found to degrade upon exposure to sunlight. Until now their is no consensus among the scientists on the mechanism for this degradation. Efficiency may degrade anywhere from 10 percent to almost 50 percent within the first few months of operation. In order to improve solar cell efficiencies, it is clear that the cause or causes of such degradation must be found and the processing conditions altered to minimize the loss in efficiency. This project was initiated in 1987 to investigate a possible link between metallic impurities, in particular, Ag, and this degradation. Such a link was established by one of the NASA scientists for the light induced degradation of n+/p crystalline silicon solar cells.
As the electricity generated by variable resources grows, system operators and variable resources have to manage challenging imbalances between forward and real-time markets. The Flexibility Auction is a novel approach for managing imbalances as it will allow resources with imbalance risk to hedge their production by buying flexibility options. The flexibility options are offered by grid-connected resources that can provide physical flexibility. This presentation provides an overview of the participants in the auction, the definition of flexibility options, and settlements.
As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project, the profile capture and analysis of production electric vehicles undergoing high power charging (HPC) is conducted over a wide range of conditions to explore variance and performance. Charge session parameters are collected from both the electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at a rate of 10Hz and entered into a time-series database for analysis. These charge profiles are captured under nominal and off-nominal conditions, exploring the impact of battery state of charge (SOC), battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management (SCM), and EVSE limitations. Nominal conditions are defined to be ideal conditions that should transfer the maximum allowable energy in the minimum possible amount of time. Nominal condition profiles are compared across EVs to characterize state-of-the-art EV charging performance against one another. Off-nominal condition profiles are compared against its nominal condition profile counterpart to highlight the variance across less desirable starting conditions within a single EV. This EV Profile Capture 2024 report stands as an update from the EV Profile Capture 2023 report to include the additional EV & EVSE assets tested and analyzed in 2024. The major updates within this report include the addition of three next-generation electric vehicles, added test cases, and further analysis. This expansion of analysis includes power profiles, power distribution, quantifying SOC, energy and range performance, EVSE limitation impacts, boost converter performance, etc. Additionally, NGP time-series data has been used as input towards three national laboratory-led grid modelling efforts: ANL’s IEEE-37 HIL model, INL’s Caldera model, and NREL’s EVI-X model. A summary of these platforms and how NGP has worked to improve their effectiveness has also been added to this years’ report.