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At least 739 records · Page 41

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments on the Summer 1980 Heat Wave and Drought

During the summer of 1980, a prolonged heat wave and drought affected the United States. A preliminary set of experiments has been conducted to study the effect of varying boundary conditions on the GLA model simulation of the heat wave. Five 10-day numerical integrations with three different specifications of boundary conditions were carried out: a control experiment which utilized climatological boundary conditions, an SST experiment which utilized summer 1980 sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, but climatological values elsewhere, and a Soil Moisture experiment which utilized the values of Mintz-Serafini for the summer, 1980. The starting dates for the five forecasts were 11 June, 7 July, 21 July, 22 August, and 6 September of 1980. These dates were specifically chosen as days when a heat wave was already established in order to investigate the effect of soil moistures or North Pacific sea-surface temperatures on the model's ability to maintain the heat wave pattern. The experiments were evaluated in terms of the heat wave index for the South Plains, North Plains, Great Plains and the entire U.S. In addition a subjective comparison of map patterns has been performed.

Wolfson, N.↗

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Model of Ice Growth in Vacuum for Lunar Water Production

To support NASA’s goal of sustained lunar presence, the use of in-situ resource utilization will reduce launch weight and frequency of resupply missions. With the discovery of water in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon, the prospect of harvesting water has generated particular interest. A more fundamental understanding of water storage and capture in lunar conditions is necessary for effective and efficient water capture and transport. The present study derives a thermal model for ice height, heat flux, chamber pressure, and mass flow rate in sub-atmospheric pressures below the triple point. The thermal model compares ice layer height against the results of the experiment at two pressures (300 Pa and 500 Pa) and temperatures from -18°C to -3°C. The thermal model predicts the trends seen experimentally with an overall root mean square error of 0.1135 cm and coefficient of efficiency of 0.994, indicating the model predicts the experimental results. The thermal model can be utilized to examine the impacts of varying pressure, temperature, and cold plate area to determine the most effective ice growth conditions for efficient capture of water on the lunar surface. The thermal model will provide a useful tool for NASA in the design of the lunar ice tanker and shows the promise of effective capture water on the lunar surface.

Ice growth↗

Thermal Model of Ice Growth in Vacuum for Lunar Water Production

To support NASA’s goal of sustained lunar presence, the use of in-situ resource utilization will reduce launch weight and frequency of resupply missions. With the discovery of water in the permanently shadowed regions of the moon, the prospect of harvesting water has generated particular interest. A more fundamental understanding of water storage and capture in lunar conditions is necessary for effective and efficient water capture and transport. The present study derives a thermal model for ice height, heat flux, chamber pressure, and mass flow rate in sub-atmospheric pressures below the triple point. The thermal model compares ice layer height against the results of the experiment at two pressures (300 Pa and 500 Pa) and temperatures from -18°C to -3°C. The thermal model predicts the trends seen experimentally with an overall root mean square error of 0.1135 cm and coefficient of efficiency of 0.994, indicating the model predicts the experimental results. The thermal model can be utilized to examine the impacts of varying pressure, temperature, and cold plate area to determine the most effective ice growth conditions for efficient capture of water on the lunar surface. The thermal model will provide a useful tool for NASA in the design of the lunar ice tanker and shows the promise of effective capture water on the lunar surface.

Ice growth↗

Temperature-stress modeling

Temperature-stress modeling for silicon dendritic web growth is described. Temperature/stress fields near growth front are examined. The effects of lateral temperature gradients are also explored.

Seidensticker, R. G.↗

Modeling of infrared flux spectra from disk-shaped interstellar dust clouds

Although there is growing observational and theoretical evidence for many disk-shaped objects of astrophysical interest, spherical geometry is assumed in most radiative transfer models. Recently we generalized the quasi-diffusion method developed by Leung (1975, 1976) for spherical geometry to solve the problem of scattering, absorption, and reemission by dust grains in a medium of disk geometry. The method is applicable to a variety of astronomical sources whose dynamics are angular-momentum dominated and hence not accurately treated by spherical geometry, e.g., protoplanetary nebulae, circumstellar disks, bipolar-flow molecular clouds, accretion disks and disk galaxies. Using this technique and realistic grain opacities we construct theoretical models to determine self-consistently the dust temperature distribution and infrared emission from disk-shaped, quiescent dark globules heated externally by the intersteller radiation field. The effects of the following parameters on the temperature structure and the emergent spectrum are studied: grain type (graphite and silicate), optical depth, density inhomogeneity, and degree of disk flattening. The disk models are characterized by an aspect ratio and an optical depth at 0.55 microns. For inhomogeneous models, a gaussian density distribution is assumed such that the ratio of central to surface density is 100. To study the effects of source geometry, we also compare results for models with spherical and disk geometry. In this case both models have the same radius and central optical depth, the disk models having a 1:1 aspect ratio. While the dust temperature distributions in the two cases are very similar, the emergent flux for the disk model depends sensitively on the viewing angle. For clouds which are unresolved, one would expect, since the thermal emission is isotropic in the neighborhood of an emitting grain, and since the emission (in the far infrared) is optically thin, that the emergent flux spectrum should be characteristic only of the dust temperature, and independent of viewing angle. However, because of the lack of complete symmetry and the resulting radiation anisotropy, this is found not to be the case for the disk models. Angle is that it implies a large uncertainty in estimating the radiation dust mass.

Spagna, G. F., Jr.↗

Open‐source photovoltaic model pipeline validation against well‐characterized system data

Abstract All freely available plane‐of‐array (POA) transposition models and photovoltaic (PV) temperature and performance models in pvlib‐python and pvpltools‐python were examined against multiyear field data from Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data include different PV systems composed of crystalline silicon modules that vary in cell type, module construction, and materials. These systems have been characterized via IEC 61853‐1 and 61853‐2 testing, and the input data for each model were sourced from these system‐specific test results, rather than considering any generic input data (e.g., manufacturer's specification [spec] sheets or generic Panneau Solaire [PAN] files). Six POA transposition models, 7 temperature models, and 12 performance models are included in this comparative analysis. These freely available models were proven effective across many different types of technologies. The POA transposition models exhibited average normalized mean bias errors (NMBEs) within ±3%. Most PV temperature models underestimated temperature exhibiting mean and median residuals ranging from −6.5°C to 2.7°C; all temperature models saw a reduction in root mean square error when using transient assumptions over steady state. The performance models demonstrated similar behavior with a first and third interquartile NMBEs within ±4.2% and an overall average NMBE within ±2.3%. Although differences among models were observed at different times of the day/year, this study shows that the availability of system‐specific input data is more important than model selection. For example, using spec sheet or generic PAN file data with a complex PV performance model does not guarantee a better accuracy than a simpler PV performance model that uses system‐specific data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

First-Order SPICE Modeling of Extreme-Temperature 4H-SiC JFET Integrated Circuits

A separate submission to this conference reports that 4H-SiC Junction Field Effect Transistor (JFET) digital and analog Integrated Circuits (ICs) with two levels of metal interconnect have reproducibly demonstrated electrical operation at 500 C in excess of 1000 hours. While this progress expands the complexity and durability envelope of high temperature ICs, one important area for further technology maturation is the development of reasonably accurate and accessible computer-aided modeling and simulation tools for circuit design of these ICs. Towards this end, we report on development and verification of 25 C to 500 C SPICE simulation models of first order accuracy for this extreme-temperature durable 4H-SiC JFET IC technology. For maximum availability, the JFET IC modeling is implemented using the baseline-version SPICE NMOS LEVEL 1 model that is common to other variations of SPICE software and importantly includes the body-bias effect. The first-order accuracy of these device models is verified by direct comparison with measured experimental device characteristics.

JFET↗

Microwave emission and scattering from vegetated terrain

Models are developed for the apparent temperature and backscattering coefficient of vegetated terrain to illustrate the effects of vegetation on the sensitivity of these parameters to variations of soil moisture. Three types of terrain are simulated for both the passive and the active case: a uniform canopy over a smooth surface, plant rows on a smooth surface, and plant rows on a rough surface. In each case the canopy is defined by its overall dimensions and by its electric permittivity, which is determined from Weiner model for dielectric mixture. Emission and scattering from both the soil and the canopy are considered, but atmospheric effects are neglected. Calculated data indicate that the sensitivity of the apparent temperature and backscattering coefficient to variations of soil moisture, decreases as the amount of vegetation increases. It is shown that the same effect results from increasing signal frequency or angle of incidence.

Sibley, T. G.↗

Effects of Kinetic Roughening and Liquid-Liquid Phase Transition on Lysozyme Crystal Growth Velocities

We measured the growth velocities of the (110) face of tetragonal lysozyme, V (centimeters per second), at four different concentrations, c (milligrams per milliliter), as the solution temperature, T (Centigrade), was reduced. For a broad range of T dependent on c, we find that the growth velocities increased as the solution temperature was reduced. The initial increase in V is well characterized by the 2D nucleation model for crystal growth, yielding the magnitude of an effective barrier for growth, gamma(sub s) = 1.2 plus or minus 0.1 x 10(exp -13) erg/molecule. Below certain temperatures, T(sub cr), dependent on c, however, a kinetic roughening hypothesis that considers the continuous addition of molecules anywhere on the crystal surface better describes the observed growth velocities. The application of the continuous growth model, up to the solution cloud-point temperatures, T(sub cl), enabled the determinations of the crossover concentration, c(sub r), from estimated values of T(sub cr). For all conditions presented, we find that the crossover from growth by 2D nucleation to continuous addition occurs at a supersaturation, sigma (sub c), = 2.0 plus or minus 0.1. Moreover, we find the energy barrier for the continuous addition, E(sub c), within the temperature range T(sub cl) less than T less than T less than T (sub cr), to be 6 plus or minus 1 x 10(exp -13) erg/molecule. Further reduction of T below approximately 2-3 C of T(sub cl), also revealed a rapid slowing of crystal growth velocities. From quasi-elastic light scattering investigations, we find that the rapid diminishment of crystal growth velocities can be accounted for by the phase behavior of lysozyme solutions. Namely, we find the reversible formation of dense fluid proto-droplets comprised of lysozyme molecules to occur below approximately 0.3 C of T(sub cl). Hence, the rapid slowing of growth velocities may occur as a result of the sudden depletion of "mobile" molecules within crystal growth solutions as dense fluid proto-droplets form.

Gorti, Sridhar↗

Further numerical calculations of the circulation of the atmosphere of Venus

Results of two-dimensional simulations of the deep circulation of Venus are presented. They prove that the high surface temperature can only be explained by the greenhouse effect, and that Goody and Robinson's (1966) dynamical model is not valid. Analytical radiative equilibrium solutions for a semi-grey atmosphere, both with and without an internal heat source, are presented. It is shown that the greenhouse effect is sufficient to produce the high surface temperature if the thermal optical depth is much greater than 100 and the ratio of solar to thermal optical depths does not exceed 0.005. A two-dimensional version of a three-dimensional model is used to test the validity of the new mechanism proposed by Gierasch (1975) to explain the 4-day circulation. Numerical experiments with large horizontal viscosities failed to show strong zonal velocities even for the case of large Prandtl numbers. It is observed that the dissipation of angular momentum introduced by the strong horizontal diffusion more than compensates for the upward transport of angular momentum due to the Hadley cell.

De Rivas, E. K.↗

Parametric study of residual stress formation in Wire and Arc Additive Manufacturing

Here, a finite element model was created to simulate the Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) thermal and mechanical processes of Inconel 718 on a A36 steel substrate, as well as the effects of process parameters on Residual Stress (RS). The model was verified using temperature data obtained from three thermocouples attached to the upper surface of the build substrate and micro-strain measurements obtained from Neutron Diffraction (ND) measurement. The model was then used to study the effects of changing the torch travel speed and interlayer dwell time. The study found that travel speed has little effect on RS when maintaining the same heat input rate. As well, the interlayer dwell time has a strong effect on RS. Reducing the dwell time causes the stress profiles to become relatively uniform and a high-stress region extends deeper along the build direction. This study provides important insight into mechanical stresses inside large walls made by the WAAM method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Encoding Diel Hysteresis and the Birch Effect in Dryland Soil Respiration Models through Knowledge-Guided Deep Learning

Soil respiration in dryland ecosystems is challenging to model due to its complex interactions with environmental drivers. Knowledge-guided deep learning provides a much more effective means of accurately representing these complex interactions than traditional Q10-based models. Mutual information analysis revealed that future soil temperature shares more information with soil respiration than past soil temperature, consistent with their clockwise diel hysteresis. We explicitly encoded diel hysteresis, soil drying, and soil rewetting effects on soil respiration dynamics in a newly designed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. The model takes both past and future environmental drivers as inputs to predict soil respiration. The new LSTM model substantially outperformed three Q10-based models and the Community Land Model when reproducing the observed soil respiration dynamics in a semi-arid ecosystem. The new LSTM model clearly demonstrated its superiority for temporally extrapolating soil respiration dynamics, such that the resulting correlation with observational data is up to 0.7 while the correlations of the Q10-based models and the Community Land Model (CLM) are less than 0.4. Our results underscore the high potential for knowledge-guided deep learning to replace Q10-based soil respiration modules in Earth system models.

Jiang, Peishi↗

Validation of Two-phase Flow Modeling Techniques in Loci-Stream using Axial Jet Pressure Control and Autogenous Pressurization Experiment

Improvements to computational fluid dynamics modeling of cryogenic fluid management operations are presented with experimental validations. Modeling improvements includes utilizing improved delayed detaches eddy simulation to more effectively model turbulence compared to the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes modeling, modeling temperature dependent tank solid properties to capture large variation in thermodynamic properties at cryogenic conditions, modeling real gas equation of state for hydrogen instead of ideal gas behavior, and an on-going effort to improve interface turbulence transport for the volume of fluid method. Two flight-scale ground tests, five K-site tank axial jet pressure control experiments and an Engineering Design Unit tank autogenous pressurization experiment are validated and show the effectiveness of the improved modeling techniques. The successful validation establishes further trust in these models for flight project support and provides a pathway for maturation of in-development interface turbulence damping model for the volume of fluid method for more generalized applications.

CFD↗

Validation of Two-Phase Flow Modeling Techniques in Loci-Stream Using Axial Jet Pressure Control and Autogenous Pressurization Experiments

Improvements to computational fluid dynamics modeling of cryogenic fluid management operations are presented with experimental validations. Modeling improvements includes utilizing improved delayed detaches eddy simulation to more effectively model turbulence compared to the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes modeling, modeling temperature dependent tank solid properties to capture large variation in thermodynamic properties at cryogenic conditions, modeling real gas equation of state for hydrogen instead of ideal gas behavior, and an on-going effort to improve interface turbulence transport for the volume of fluid method. Two flight-scale ground tests, five K-site tank axial jet pressure control experiments and an Engineering Design Unit tank autogenous pressurization experiment are validated and show the effectiveness of the improved modeling techniques. The successful validation establishes further trust in these models for flight project support and provides a pathway for maturation of in-development interface turbulence damping model for the volume of fluid method for more generalized applications.

CFD↗

The effects of Ni, Mo, Ti and Si on the mechanical properties of Cr free Mn steel (Fe-25Mn-5Al-2C)

The FeMnAlC alloys may hold potential as Cr-free replacements for high strategic material iron base superalloys, but little is known about their intermediate temperature (650 C to 870 C) mechanical properties. The effects of alloying elements on the mechanical properties of model FeMnAlC alloys were studied. Results showed that modified FeMnAlC alloys had promising short term, intermediate temperature properties but had relatively poor stress rupture lives at 172 MPa and 788 C. Room temperature and 788 C tensile strength of FeMnAlC alloys were better than common cast stainless steels. Changes in room temperature tensile and 788 C tensile strength and ductility, and 788 C stress rupture life were correlated with changes in Ni, Mo, Ti, and Si levels due to alloying effects on interstitial carbon levels and carbide morphology. Fe-25Mn-5Al-2C had a very poor stress rupture life at 172 MPa and 788 C. Addition of carbide-forming elements improved the stress rupture life.

Schuon, S. R.↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

Modified Laser Flash Method for Thermal Properties Measurements and the Influence of Heat Convection

The study examined the effect of natural convection in applying the modified laser flash method to measure thermal properties of semiconductor melts. Common laser flash method uses a laser pulse to heat one side of a thin circular sample and measures the temperature response of the other side. Thermal diffusivity can be calculations based on a heat conduction analysis. For semiconductor melt, the sample is contained in a specially designed quartz cell with optical windows on both sides. When laser heats the vertical melt surface, the resulting natural convection can introduce errors in calculation based on heat conduction model alone. The effect of natural convection was studied by CFD simulations with experimental verification by temperature measurement. The CFD results indicated that natural convection would decrease the time needed for the rear side to reach its peak temperature, and also decrease the peak temperature slightly in our experimental configuration. Using the experimental data, the calculation using only heat conduction model resulted in a thermal diffusivity value is about 7.7% lower than that from the model with natural convection. Specific heat capacity was about the same, and the difference is within 1.6%, regardless of heat transfer models.

Lin, Bochuan↗