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Deep Learning Based Approach to Integrate MyShake's Trigger Data with ShakeAlert for Faster and Robust EEW Alerts

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems depend on the dense seismic network to make fast and accurate earthquake detections to issue useful early alerts. The recent development and implementation of the ShakeAlert system is relying on the west coast seismic network to detect and estimate the earthquake parameters in real-time. While working on making improvements on the current system, one potential approach is to include more seismic recordings from various sources, such as the low-cost smartphone seismic network, such as the MyShake network, or the Google Android smartphones, since these smartphone seismic networks have much more portable stations (phones) to potentially provide useful data to the system. This report summarizes the initial exploration of using a deep learning approach to combine the data from both traditional seismic stations and the smartphone data in California. Due to the heterogeneity nature of the data, we aggregate data from the phones (using simulation data), as well as that from traditional seismic stations to grid cells. By generating real-time triggering ratio grid cell maps, the designed deep learning algorithm can process the data from multiple sources and detect the earthquake faster than only using that from a traditional seismic network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Study of the characteristics of seismic signals generated by natural and cultural phenomena

Seismic data recorded at the Tonto Forest Seismological Observatory in Arizona and the Uinta Basin Seismological Observatory in Utah were used to compare the frequency of occurrence, severity, and spectral content of ground motions resulting from earthquakes, and other natural and man-made sources with the motions generated by sonic booms. A search of data recorded at the two observatories yielded a classification of over 180,000 earthquake phase arrivals on the basis of frequency of occurrence versus maximum ground velocity. The majority of the large ground velocities were produced by seismic surface waves from moderate to large earthquakes in the western United States, and particularly along the Pacific Coast of the United States and northern Mexico. A visual analysis of raw film seismogram data over a 3-year period indicates that local and regional seismic events, including quarry blasts, are frequent in occurrence, but do not produce ground motions at the observatories comparable to either the large western United States earthquakes or to sonic booms. Seismic data from the Nevada Test Site nuclear blasts were used to derive magnitude-distance-sonic boom overpressure relations.

Goforth, T. T.↗

Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth

Fracture mechanics is used to develop a theory of earthquake mechanism which includes the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth. The following phenomena are predicted: slow earthquakes, multiple events, delayed multiple events (doublets), postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory predicts a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may 'trigger' another.

Das, S.↗

Age dependence of oceanic intraplate seismicity and implications for lithospheric evolution

The present investigation is concerned with the determination of the depths for 16 oceanic intraplate earthquakes using body wave modeling. It is found that oceanic intraplate earthquake depths show a clear deepening of the maximum focal depth with increasing lithospheric age. The thickness of the lithosphere in which oceanic intraplate earthquakes occur is approximately equal to or slightly greater than the flexural elastic thickness, but is much less than the seismic thickness determined from surface wave dispersion. Oceanic intraplate earthquakes are found to occur at greater depths and temperatures than has been previously observed for continental crustal events.

Wiens, D. A.↗

Seismicity, fault plane solutions, depth of faulting, and active tectonics of the Andes of Peru, Ecuador, and southern Colombia

The long-period P waveforms observed for 17 earthquakes in the Peruvian Andes during 1963-1976 are compared with synthetic waveforms to obtain fault-plane solutions and focal depths. The morphological units of the Peruvian Andes are characterized: coastal plains, Cordillera Occidental, altiplano and central high plateau, Cordillera Oriental, and sub-Andes. The data base and analysis methodology are discussed, and the results are presented in tables, diagrams, graphs, maps, and photographs illustrating typical formations. Most of the earthquakes are shown to occur in the transition zone from the sub-Andes to the Cordillera Oriental under formations of about 1 km elevation at focal depths of 10-38 km. It is suggested that the sub-Andean earthquakes reflect hinterland deformation of a detached fold and thrust belt, perhaps like that which occurred in parts of the Canadian Rockies. From the total crustal shortening evident in Andean morphology and the shortening rate of the recent earthquakes it is estimated that the topography and crustal root of the Andes have been formed during the last 90-135 Myr.

Suarez, G.↗

Inter- and intra-plate deformation at North American plate boundaries

A geodetic network which spans the region between San Francisco and Lake Tahoe has been measured 5 times completely with triangulation in 1880, 1922, 1929, 1943, 1963. A resurvey with the Global Positioning System (GPS) in 1991 allows the formation of 1 coseismic and 4 interseismic epochs. The data from this network provide a unique opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of the strain field associated with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake in particular and with the Pacific-North American plate boundary in general. Calculations of strain rate from the network data lead to the following conclusions. (1) There is no resolvable (greater than 0.05 microradians/yr) strain in between Sutter Buttes and the Sierra Nevada. (2) Throughout the time since the 1906 earthquake, a region extending at least as far east as the westernmost Great Valley has been undergoing deformation related to Pac:Nam interaction and the associated earthquake cycle. (3) In the time and space of overlap, our results agree with those from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) trilateration data. Both data sets indicate that strain must be accumulating to the east of Vaca. (4) The San Andreas discrepancy cannot be accommodated in the Great Valley at the 1 sigma level of our results. It is possible to absorb it in that region at the 2 sigma level. (5) Strain rate is elevated in the years following the earthquake and decays slowly with time. It is possible that the rate in the Coast Ranges increases until around 1950 and then decays. With the exception of one epoch, strain rate in the Coast Ranges is consistently fault parallel, shows no sign changes, and is consistent with monotonic strain accumulation.

Beavan, John↗

Lunar regolith densification

Core tube samples of the lunar regolith obtained during the Apollo missions showed a rapid increase in the density of the regolith with depth. Various hypotheses have been proposed for the possible cause of this phenomenon, including the densification of the loose regolith material by repeated shaking from the seismic tremors which have been found to occur at regular monthly intervals when the moon and earth are closest to one another. A test bed was designed to study regolith densification. This test bed uses Minnesota Lunar Simulant (MLS) to conduct shaking experiments in the geotechnical centrifuge with an inflight shake table system. By reproducing realistic in-situ regolith properties, the experiment also serves to test penetrator concepts. The shake table system was designed and used for simulation experiments to study effects of earthquakes on terrestrial soil structures. It is mounted on a 15 g-ton geotechnical centrifuge in which the self-weight induced stresses are replicated by testing an n-th scale model in a gravity field which is n times larger than Earth's gravity. A similar concept applies when dealing with lunar prototypes, where the gravity ratio required for proper simulation of lunar gravity effects is that between the centrifugal acceleration and the lunar gravity. Records of lunar seismic tremors, or moonquakes, were obtained. While these records are being prepared for use as the input data to drive the shake table system, records from the El Centro earthquake of 1940 are being used to perform preliminary tests, using a soil container which was previously used for earthquake studies. This container has a laminar construction, with the layers free to slide on each other, so that the soil motion during the simulated earthquake will not be constrained by the otherwise rigid boundaries. The soil model is prepared by pluviating the MLS from a hopper into the laminar container to a depth of 6 in. The container is mounted on the shake table and the centrifuge is operated to generate an acceleration of 10 times Earth's gravity or 60 times the lunar gravity, thus simulating a lunar regolith thickness of 30 ft. The shake table is then operated using the scaled 'moonquake' as the input motion. One or more model moonquakes are used in each experiment, after which the soil is analyzed for its density profile with depth. This is accomplished by removing from the soil bed a column of soil contained within a thin rubber sleeve which has been previously embedded vertically in the soil during pluviation. This column of soil is transferred to a gamma ray device, in which the gamma ray transmission transversely through the soil is measured and compared with standard calibration samples. In this manner, the density profile can be determined. Preliminary results to date are encouraging, and the Center plans to study the effects of duration of shaking, intensity of the shaking motion, and the frequency of the motion.

Ko, Hon-Yim↗

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate motions and regional deformation near plate boundaries

During our participation in the NASA Crustal Dynamics Project under NASA contract NAS-27339 and grant NAG5-814 for the period 1982-1991, we published or submitted for publication 30 research papers and 52 abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings. In addition, five M.I.T. Ph.D. students (Eric Bergman, Steven Bratt, Dan Davis, Jeanne Sauber, Anne Sheehan) were supported wholly or in part by this project during their thesis research. Highlights of our research progress during this period include the following: application of geodetic data to determine rates of strain in the Mojave block and in central California and to clarify the relation of such strain to the San Andreas fault and Pacific-North American plate motions; application of geodetic data to infer post seismic deformation associated with large earthquakes in the Imperial Valley, Hebgen Lake, Argentina, and Chile; determination of the state of stress in oceanic lithosphere from a systematic study of the centroid depths and source mechanisms of oceanic intraplate earthquakes; development of models for the state of stress in young oceanic regions arising from the differential cooling of the lithosphere; determination of the depth extent and rupture characteristics of oceanic transform earthquakes; improved determination of earthquake slip vectors in the Gulf of California, an important data set for the estimation of Pacific-North American plate motions; development of models for the state of stress and mechanics of fold-and-thrust belts and accretionary wedges; development of procedures to invert geoid height, residual bathymetry, and differential body wave travel time residuals for lateral variations in the characteristic temperature and bulk composition of the oceanic upper mantle; and initial GPS measurements of crustal deformation associated with the Imperial-Cerro Prieto fault system in southern California and northern Mexico. Full descriptions of the research conducted on these topics may be found in the Semi-Annual status Reports submitted regularly to NASA over the course of this project and in the publications listed.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

Kinematics of the New Zealand Plate Boundary: Relative Motion by GPS Across Networks of 1000 km and 50 km Spacing

From the 1995-97 data we are able to estimate interseismic velocities - the original aim of the project - though corrections must first be made for the coseismic effects of the Cass earthquake and postseismic effects of the Arthur's Pass event. In the following, we present four sets of results: (1) Interseismic velocities, (2) Arthur's Pass earthquake - coseismic, (3) Cass earthquake, and (4) Arthur's Pass earthquake postseismic. Work on all these fronts is still incomplete, but is being actively continued with funding from the NZ Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST).

Scholz, Chris↗

Crustal Deformation Associated with Glacial Fluctuations in the Eastern Chugach Mountains, Alaska

The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993-1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 cubic km from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M(sub L) > 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M(sub L) < 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, o,3, could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1-6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1-12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5 x 10(exp 19) Pa s for depths between approximately equal 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in sigma(sub V) between 0 and 10 km was approximately equal 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (approximately 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M(sub S) = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

Coseismic Excitation of the Earth's Polar Motion

Apart from the "shaking" near the epicenter that is the earthquake, a seismic event creates a permanent field of dislocation in the entire Earth. This redistribution of mass changes (slightly) the Earth's inertia tensor; and the Earth's rotation will change in accordance with the conservation of angular momentum. Similar to this seismic excitation of Earth rotation variations, the same mass redistribution causes (slight) changes in the Earth's gravitational field expressible in terms of changes in the Stokes coefficients of its harmonic expansion. In this paper, we give a historical background of the subject and discuss the related physics; we then compute the geodynamic effects caused by earthquakes based on normal-mode summation scheme. The effects are computed using the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions for 15,814 major earthquakes from Jan., 1977, through Feb., 1999, as provided in the Harvard CMT catalog. The computational results further strengthens these findings and conclusions: (i) the strong tendency for earthquakes to make the Earth rounder and more compact (however slightly) continues; (ii) so does the trend in the seismic "nudging" of the rotation pole toward the general direction of approx. 140 E, roughly opposite to that of the observed polar drift, but two orders of magnitude smaller in drift speed.

Chao, B. F.↗

Testing Spatial Correlation of Subduction Interplate Coupling and Forearc Morpho-Tectonics

Subduction zones that are capable of generating great (Mw greater than 8) earthquakes appear to have a common assemblage of forearc morphologic elements. Although details vary, each have (from the trench landward), an accretionary prism, outer arc high, outer forearc basin, an inner forean: basin, and volcanic arc. This pattern is common in spite of great variation in forearc architecture. Because interseismic strain is known to be associated with a locked seismogenic plate interface, we infer that this common forearc morphology is related, in an unknown way, to the process of interseismic Strain accumulation and release in great earthquakes. To date, however, no clear relationship between the subduction process and the common elements of upper plate form has emerged. Whereas certain elements of the system, i.e. the outer arc high, are reasonably well- understood in a structural context, there is little understanding of the structural or topographic evolution of the other key elements like the inner arc and inner forearc basin, particularly with respect to the coupled zone of earthquake generation. This project developed a model of the seismologic, topographic, and uplift/denudation linkages between forearc topography and the subduction system by: 1) comparing geophysical, geodetic, and topographic data from subduction margins that generate large earthquakes; 2) using existing GPS, seismicity, and other data to model the relationship between seismic cycles involving a locked interface and upper-plate topographic development; and 3) using new GPS data and a range-scale topographic, uplift, and denudation analysis of the presently aseismic Cascadia margin to constrain topographic/plate coupling relationships at this poorly understood margin.

Goldfinger, Chris↗

QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory

We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.

virtual observatory↗

Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground-motion measurements were available. Development of a global tsunami-warning system utilizing an expanded network of coastal GPS stations was under consideration at the time of reporting the information for this article.

Song, Y. Tony↗

Lunar TLP's and the Tectonic Processes of the Earth and the Moon

We study the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) as an indicator of lunar tectonic. Seismic phenomena can be used as a direct indicator of some tectonic activities of the planets The Moon-Earth gravitational interaction has been studied extensively as a triggering mechanism to geodynamics. In this work, we study the reverse interaction Earth-Moon in relation to the TLP activities. The lunar outgassing potentially is the leading cause for TLP activities resulting from the lunar interior's dynamic mechanism. We have studied Earth venting and earthquakes processes and have found that radon was frequently activated before significant seismic events due to Moon-Sun interaction with Earth (Ouzounov et al., 2018). Earthquake lights, an associated phenomenon reported before some major earthquakes, are analog to TLP activities on the moon. In 1972, N. Kozyrev suggested a possible moon response to the significant seismic events on Earth. To understand whether TLP's activities have any possible connection with Earth geodynamics, we perform a statistical check between the significant seismic activities from the NEIC catalog and lunar TLPs for 1907-1977 for four lunar areas :Aristarchus, Plato, Gassendi, and Alphonsus. We use TLP compiled catalog based on Middlehurst et al. (1968), Cameron (2006a,b), and Crotts (2008) catalogs. Our results revealed a causal relationship between significant earthquakes and TLP events. However, this relation varies from the location and depth of the seismic events. Deformation triggers the degassing process, and TLPs are indicators for those underlying activities. Our work can provide new information about the origin of TLP and the existence of a possible relationship between the tectonic processes of Earth and the Moon.

D Ouzonov↗

Quaternary slip rates and most recent surface rupture of the Bitterroot fault, western Montana

The Bitterroot fault is a ~100-km-long Quaternary active normal fault that bounds the eastern margin of the north–south-trending Bitterroot Mountains and accommodates extension near the Intermountain Seismic Belt. Here, new detailed mapping using high-resolution topographic data derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) along the southern Bitterroot Range documents multiple generations of fault scarps in Holocene–Pleistocene deposits with vertical off sets that increase in magnitude with age. Fault mapping indicates a complex fault geometry characterized by an en echelon pattern of discontinuous segments of 41–78° east-dipping normal faults that appear to cut the older Eocene detachment fault, and locally 70–88° west-dipping antithetic normal faults. 10 Be cosmogenic exposure dating provides in situ age control for 32 surface boulders (>1 m) sampled in glacial deposits. Near Como Dam, two Pinedale-age glacial moraine sequences yield peak age distributions of 15.0 ± 0.4 ka and 16.4 ± 0.6 ka as apparent exposure ages (e = 0), and 15.4 ± 0.4 ka and 16.8 ± 0.6 ka based on the maximum allowed boulder surface erosion rate (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separation of 3.5 ± 0.2 m across the ~16–17 ka glacial moraine off set by the Bitterroot fault scarp yields a fault slip rate of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr. Glacial Lake Missoula highstand shorelines, inset into the ~15 ka glacial moraine and vertically off set 4.6 ± 1.6 m by an antithetic strand of the Bitterroot fault, yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr that overlap with fault slip rates on the main strand near Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr). At the Ward Creek fan located ~15 km to the north of Lake Como, two glacial debris fan sequences yield peak age distributions of 16.6 ± 0.4 ka and 62.8 ± 1.7 ka (e = 0), and 17.0 ± 0.4 ka and 69.9 ± 2.2 ka (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separations of 2.4 ± 0.3 m and 4.5 ± 0.2 m on the ~17 ka and ~63–70 ka fan surfaces off set by the Bitterroot fault yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr and 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. Our results indicate broadly consistent fault slip rates for the main fault segments at Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr) and the Ward Creek fan (0.1–0.3 mm/yr) with an along-strike range of 0.1–0.3 mm/yr for the southern Bitterroot fault. Fault scaling relations and evidence of multiple late Quaternary fault surface ruptures suggest the Bitterroot fault could produce a Mw ~7.2 earthquake. Structural model constraints and our slip rate results indicate both high-angle or low-angle fault geometries are possible at depth. A seismogenic low-angle fault model could generate a larger earthquake of Mw >7.2. Earthquake history is unknown for the Bitterroot fault, but fault scarps in young glacial deposits demonstrate its seismogenic potential. Data from this study suggest seismic hazards from the Bitterroot fault may pose a high level of risk to the Missoula metropolitan area, the State’s second most populous region, and major infrastructures across the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

InSAR-based detection method for mapping and monitoring slow-moving landslides in remote regions with steep and mountainous terrain: An application to Nepal

Mapping and monitoring landslides in remote areas with steep and mountainous terrain is logistically challenging, expensive, and time consuming. Yet, in order to mitigate hazards and prevent loss of life in these areas, and to better understand landslide processes, high-resolution measurements of landslide activity are necessary. Satellite-based synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides millimeter-scale measurements of ground surface deformation that can be used to identify and monitor landslides in remote areas where ground-based monitoring techniques are not feasible. Here we present a novel InSAR deformation detection approach, which uses double difference time-series with local and regional spatial filters and pixel clustering methods to identify and monitor slow-moving landslides without making a priori assumptions of the location of landslides. We apply our analysis to freely available Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite data acquired between 2014 and 2017 centered on the Trishuli River drainage basin in Nepal. We found a minimum of 6 slow-moving landslides that all occur within the Ranimatta lithologic formation (phyllites, metasandstones, meta basics). These landslides have areas ranging from 0.39 to 1.66 sq.km and long-term dry-season displacement rates ranging from 2.1 to 8.8 cm/yr. Due to periods of low coherence during the monsoon season (June – September) each year, and following the 25 April 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake, our time series analysis is limited to the 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 dry seasons (September - May). We found that each of the landslides displayed slightly higher rates during the 2014 period, likely as a result of higher cumulative rainfall that fell during the 2014 monsoon season. Although we do not have high quality InSAR data to show the landslide evolution directly following the Gorkha earthquake, the similar rates of movement before (2014-2015) and after (2016-2017) Gorkha suggest the earthquake had negligible long-term impact on these landslides. Our findings highlight the potential for region-wide mapping of slow-moving l and slides using freely available remote sensing data in remote areas such as Nepal and future work will benefit from expanding our methodology to other regions around the world.

Synthetic Aperture Radar↗