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Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 4: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system, version 1

This report describes the analysis component of the Goddard Earth Observing System, Data Assimilation System, Version 1 (GEOS-1 DAS). The general features of the data assimilation system are outlined, followed by a thorough description of the statistical interpolation algorithm, including specification of error covariances and quality control of observations. We conclude with a discussion of the current status of development of the GEOS data assimilation system. The main components of GEOS-1 DAS are an atmospheric general circulation model and an Optimal Interpolation algorithm. The system is cycled using the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique in which analysis increments are introduced as time independent forcing terms in a forecast model integration. The system is capable of producing dynamically balanced states without the explicit use of initialization, as well as a time-continuous representation of non- observables such as precipitation and radiational fluxes. This version of the data assimilation system was used in the five-year reanalysis project completed in April 1994 by Goddard's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data from this reanalysis are available from the Goddard Distributed Active Center (DAAC), which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). For information on how to obtain these data sets, contact the Goddard DAAC at (301) 286-3209, EMAIL daac@gsfc.nasa.gov.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Computational Nanotechnology of Materials, Devices, and Machines: Carbon Nanotubes

The mechanics and chemistry of carbon nanotubes have relevance for their numerous electronic applications. Mechanical deformations such as bending and twisting affect the nanotube's conductive properties, and at the same time they possess high strength and elasticity. Two principal techniques were utilized including the analysis of large scale classical molecular dynamics on a shared memory architecture machine and a quantum molecular dynamics methodology. In carbon based electronics, nanotubes are used as molecular wires with topological defects which are mediated through various means. Nanotubes can be connected to form junctions.

Srivastava, Deepak↗

Trace Gas Measurements on Mars and Earth Using Optical Parametric Generation

Trace gases and their isotopic ratios in planetary atmospheres offer important but subtle clues as to the origins of a planet's atmosphere, hydrology, geology, and potential for biology. An orbiting laser remote sensing instrument is capable of measuring trace gases on a global scale with unprecedented accuracy, and higher spatial resolution that can be obtained by passive instruments. We have developed an active sensing instrument for the remote measurement of trace gases in planetary atmospheres (including Earth). The technique uses widely tunable, seeded optical parametric generation (OPG) to measure methane, CO2, water vapor, and other trace gases in the near and mid-infrared spectral regions. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas on Earth and it is also a potential biogenic marker on Mars and other planets. Methane in the Earth's atmosphere survives for a shorter time than CO2 but its impact on climate change can be larger than CO2. Methane levels have remained relatively constant over the last decade around 1.78 parts per million (ppm) but recent observations indicate that methane levels may be on the rise. Increasing methane concentrations may trigger a positive feedback loop and a subsequent runaway greenhouse effect, where increasing temperatures result in increasing methane levels. The NRC Decadal Survey recognized the importance of global observations of greenhouse gases and called for simultaneous CH4, CO, and CO2 measurements but also underlined the technological limitations for these observations. For Mars, methane measurements are of great interest because of its potential as a strong biogenic marker. A remote sensing instrument that can measure day and night over all seasons and latitudes can identify and localize sources of biogenic gas plumes produced by subsurface chemistry or biology, and aid in the search for extra-terrestrial life. It can identify the dynamics of methane generation over time and latitude and identify future lander mission sites for more detailed in-situ analysis. In this paper we report on remote sensing measurements of methane using a high peak power, widely tunable optical parametric generator (OPG) operating at 3.3 micron and 1.65 micron. The OPG is pumped by a passively q-switched single frequency laser (3ns, 5KHz, 50uJ) and seeded by a diode laser. The spectral width of both signal and idler of seeded OPG is nearly Fourier transform limited. The output of seeded OPG is single frequency with high spectral purity and is widely tunable. Both 1650 nm and 3300 nm can be generated with a conversion efficiency of more than 30%. We have demonstrated detection of methane at 3274 nm and 1650 nm in a cell and also performed open path atmospheric measurements of methane at the same wavelengths. Finally, we were able to demonstrate simultaneous detection of methane at 3270.4 nm and CO2 at 1578.2 nm. In this paper we will discuss the OPG performance and atmospheric open path measurement results.

Numata, Kenji↗

Biomolecule Sequencer: Next-Generation DNA Sequencing Technology for In-Flight Environmental Monitoring, Research, and Beyond

On the International Space Station (ISS), technologies capable of rapid microbial identification and disease diagnostics are not currently available. NASA still relies upon sample return for comprehensive, molecular-based sample characterization. Next-generation DNA sequencing is a powerful approach for identifying microorganisms in air, water, and surfaces onboard spacecraft. The Biomolecule Sequencer payload, manifested to SpaceX-9 and scheduled on the Increment 4748 research plan (June 2016), will assess the functionality of a commercially-available next-generation DNA sequencer in the microgravity environment of ISS. The MinION device from Oxford Nanopore Technologies (Oxford, UK) measures picoamp changes in electrical current dependent on nucleotide sequences of the DNA strand migrating through nanopores in the system. The hardware is exceptionally small (9.5 x 3.2 x 1.6 cm), lightweight (120 grams), and powered only by a USB connection. For the ISS technology demonstration, the Biomolecule Sequencer will be powered by a Microsoft Surface Pro3. Ground-prepared samples containing lambda bacteriophage, Escherichia coli, and mouse genomic DNA, will be launched and stored frozen on the ISS until experiment initiation. Immediately prior to sequencing, a crew member will collect and thaw frozen DNA samples, connect the sequencer to the Surface Pro3, inject thawed samples into a MinION flow cell, and initiate sequencing. At the completion of the sequencing run, data will be downlinked for ground analysis. Identical, synchronous ground controls will be used for data comparisons to determine sequencer functionality, run-time sequence, current dynamics, and overall accuracy. We will present our latest results from the ISS flight experiment the first time DNA has ever been sequenced in space and discuss the many potential applications of the Biomolecule Sequencer for environmental monitoring, medical diagnostics, higher fidelity and more adaptable Space Biology Human Research Program investigations, and even life detection experiments for astrobiology missions.

Sequencer↗

Orientational Pair Correlations and Local Structure of Benzonitrile from Molecular Dynamics Simulations with Comparisons to Experiments [plus supplemental information]

Here, we present an experimentally parametrized molecular dynamics study of single-molecule and collective orientational relaxation in neat benzonitrile through the analysis of the reorientational anisotropy and polarizability anisotropy time-correlation function (PA-TCF). The simulations show that the PA-TCF is dominated by collective reorientation after 20 ps. Collective reorientation is found to be slower than single-molecule reorientation by a factor of 1.67, consistent with recent experiments. The simulations provide direct evidence of local antiparallel benzonitrile configurations. These structures, which have been the center of some debate, are responsible for the slower rate of collective vs. single-molecule reorientation in the liquid. Further structural analysis indicates that significant Coulombic interactions between the nitrile group and hydrogen atoms on adjacent molecules play a role in the formation of the antiparallel structures. The single-molecule dynamics reflected in the anisotropy are complex and consist of a ballistic regime, restricted angular diffusion, and spatially anisotropic free diffusion. The principal components of the rotational diffusion tensor are independently obtained and shown to reproduce the free diffusion regime of the anisotropy for each principal axis according to the predictions of a previous theory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.

Non-NASA Center↗

Robustness analysis for real parametric uncertainty

Some key results in the literature in the area of robustness analysis for linear feedback systems with structured model uncertainty are reviewed. Some new results are given. Model uncertainty is described as a combination of real uncertain parameters and norm bounded unmodeled dynamics. Here the focus is on the case of parametric uncertainty. An elementary and unified derivation of the celebrated theorem of Kharitonov and the Edge Theorem is presented. Next, an algorithmic approach for robustness analysis in the cases of multilinear and polynomic parametric uncertainty (i.e., the closed loop characteristic polynomial depends multilinearly and polynomially respectively on the parameters) is given. The latter cases are most important from practical considerations. Some novel modifications in this algorithm which result in a procedure of polynomial time behavior in the number of uncertain parameters is outlined. Finally, it is shown how the more general problem of robustness analysis for combined parametric and dynamic (i.e., unmodeled dynamics) uncertainty can be reduced to the case of polynomic parametric uncertainty, and thus be solved by means of the algorithm.

Sideris, Athanasios↗

Visualizing degradation mechanisms in a gas-fed CO 2 reduction cell via operando X-ray tomography

We utilize operando X-ray computed tomography, coupled with real-time electrochemical analysis, to reveal the underlying failure mechanisms of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for electrochemical CO 2 reduction (eCO 2 R). Through operando imaging, we can obtain unprecedented insights into the dynamic behavior of the MEA under different operating conditions, revealing critical changes in interface interactions, phase distribution, and structural integrity over time. Our findings identify phenomena giving rise to the transition from CO 2 R to the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), as evidenced by shifts in cathode potential and CO 2 R selectivity. The formation of inhomogeneous precipitates at the gas diffusion electrode disrupts the CO 2 supply and reduces the active sites for eCO 2 R, resulting in a shift toward H2 production during low current density operation. Additionally, under high current density conditions, rapid water crossover up to the microporous layer/gas diffusion layer promotes the transition from CO 2 R to HER, further shifting cell potential toward anodic direction. Oscillating voltage conditions reveal the dissolution and regrowth of precipitates, providing direct visualization of the competing selectivity of CO 2 R and HER. This work offers new insight into the degradation mechanisms of MEAs, with implications for the design of more durable CO 2 R systems.

Lee, Sol A [California Institute of Technology (Ca↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Atomic understanding of structural deformations upon ablation of graphene

We investigate the atomic rearrangement in graphene under femtosecond pulse illumination with reactive molecular dynamics simulations and compare with ultra-fast laser ablation experiments. To model the impact of the laser pulse irradiation, heat is locally applied to a selected area of the graphene layer and the resulting structural deformation is simulated as a function of time, providing a detailed understanding of the bond breaking process under laser illumination and subsequent re-equilibration afterAQ3 the pulse is turned off. Analysis of the atomic dynamics indicates that the types of defects formed depend on the pulse energy and exposure duration. By varying the exposed area, we determine that the shape of the ablated area is not only a function of the pulse energy, but also of the beam spot size and pulse repetition. Furthermore, we apply a machine learning approach to extrapolate our simulated data to experimental length scales and reproduce the trends in ablated area as a function of temperature. Furthermore, our study provides a first step towards understanding the design parameters for graphene nano-patterning.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Harnessing stratospheric diffusion barriers for enhanced climate geoengineering

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering is a proposed method to temporarily intervene in the climate system to increase the reflectance of shortwave radiation and reduce mean global temperature. In previous climate modeling studies, choosing injection locations for geoengineering aerosols has, thus far, only utilized the average dynamics of stratospheric wind fields instead of accounting for the essential role of time-varying material transport barriers in turbulent atmospheric flows. Here we conduct the first analysis of sulfate aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere, comparing what is now a standard fixed-injection scheme with time-varying injection locations that harness short-term stratospheric diffusion barriers. We show how diffusive transport barriers can quickly be identified, and we provide an automated injection location selection algorithm using short forecast and reanalysis data. Within the first 7 d days of transport, the dynamics-based approach is able to produce particle distributions with greater global coverage than fixed-site methods with fewer injections. Additionally, this enhanced dispersion slows aerosol microphysical growth and can reduce the effective radii of aerosols up to 200–300 d after injection. While the long-term dynamics of aerosol dispersion are accurately predicted with transport barriers calculated from short forecasts, the long-term influence on radiative forcing is more difficult to predict and warrants deeper investigation. Statistically significant changes in radiative forcing at timescales beyond the forecasting window showed mixed results, potentially increasing or decreasing forcing after 1 year when compared to fixed injections. We conclude that future feasibility studies of geoengineering should consider the cooling benefits possible by strategically injecting sulfate aerosols at optimized time-varying locations. Our method of utilizing time-varying attracting and repelling structures shows great promise for identifying optimal dispersion locations, and radiative forcing impacts can be improved by considering additional meteorological variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ESIAC: A data products system for ERTS imagery (time-lapse viewing and measuring)

An Electronic Satellite Image Analysis Console (ESIAC) has been developed for visual analysis and objective measurement of earth resources imagery. The system is being employed to process imagery for use by USGS investigators in several different disciplines studying dynamic hydrologic conditions. The ESIAC provides facilities for storing registered image sequences in a magnetic video disc memory for subsequent recall, enhancement, and animated display in monochrome or color. The unique feature of the system is the capability to time-lapse the ERTS imagery and/or analytic displays of the imagery. Data products have included quantitative measurements of distances and areas, brightness profiles, and movie loops of selected themes. The applications of these data products are identified and include such diverse problem areas as measurement of snowfield extent, sediment plumes from estuary dicharge, playa inventory, phreatophyte and other vegetation changes. A comparative ranking of the electronic system in terms of accuracy, cost effectiveness and data output shows it to be a viable means of data analysis.

Evans, W. E.↗

On the measurement of shape: With applications to lunar regolith

With the renewed commitment from NASA and other commercial entities for a presence on the Moon, the importance of understanding the characteristics of lunar regolith and how to utilize it have become the target of increasing scrutiny. Much of what is known about lunar regolith was collected during and immediately after the Apollo program, however, analytical techniques and instrumentation have advanced in leaps and bounds in the subsequent decades. Specifically, dynamic image analysis systems have advanced to the point that millions of particles can have morphological characteristics automatically determined in relatively short time frames. Particle morphological data was collected on several lunar samples and a pair of widely used regolith simulants to ascertain the accuracy of these simulants and to explore statistical analysis methods of these large datasets. It is found that these morphology datasets can vary widely depending on the particle size of the particles, and simple averaging of the data skews the results heavily towards the numerically abundant size ranges, the fines. Different reporting methods are suggested to ameliorate these problems. When applied to the lunar regolith, the particles are noted to be less morphologically complex than initially suspected. Compared to the lunar material, the simulants are found to contain some more morphological variability and angular grains. Such difference is likely due to the wildly different comminution processes that these different powder systems are subjected to.

2D shape↗

Electrochemical Response of Alkaline Batteries Subject to Quasi-Static and Dynamic Loading

We report electrochemical changes were successfully monitored through the coupling of external loading, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), and distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis. The development of the testing methods allows for detailed observation of changes due to mechanical loading and distinguishes responses between different cell geometries. Comparison of the force vs displacement, voltage vs displacement, and distribution of relaxation times plots to the different cell geometries display failure modes specific to geometry as well as the impact of different loading profiles. Numerical modeling confirmed the movement within individual cells and predicted locations with the most deformation based on the external loading condition applied. The results gathered from combining mechanical loading, electrochemical response, and numerical modeling, yield a viable approach to establishing an improved understanding of the effects of mechanical loading on the electrochemical response of multiple battery geometries and the methods herein may be extensible to additional battery chemistries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Efficient loads analyses of Shuttle-payloads using dynamic models with linear or nonlinear interfaces

An efficient method for the load analysis of Shuttle-payload systems with linear or nonlinear attachment interfaces is presented which allows the kinematics of the interface degrees of freedom at a given time to be evaluated without calculating the combined system modal representation of the Space Shuttle and its payload. For the case of a nonlinear dynamic model, an iterative procedure is employed to converge the nonlinear terms of the equations of motion to reliable values. Results are presented for a Shuttle abort landing event.

Spanos, P. D.↗

FCAP - A new tool for the performance and structural analysis for complex flexible aircraft with active control

A very general formulation has been developed for the analysis of complex flexible-aircraft configurations in presence of active control. The formulation is incorporated into a computer program, Flight Control Analysis Program (FCAP), which is designed in a modular fashion to incorporate aircraft dynamics and aerodynamics for complex configurations, as well as sensor, actuator and control logic element dynamics. Formulation of the total aircraft dynamic system is accomplished in matrix form by casting equations in state vector format. The system stability and performance are determined in either the frequency or time domain using classical analysis techniques. Fully unsteady aerodynamics is used for the evaluation of the flutter characteristics as well as the gust response of the aircraft.

Morino, L.↗

Least Squares Shadowing Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Around a Two-Dimensional Airfoil

Gradient-based sensitivity analysis has proven to be an enabling technology for many applications, including design of aerospace vehicles. However, conventional sensitivity analysis methods break down when applied to long-time averages of chaotic systems. This breakdown is a serious limitation because many aerospace applications involve physical phenomena that exhibit chaotic dynamics, most notably high-resolution large-eddy and direct numerical simulations of turbulent aerodynamic flows. A recently proposed methodology, Least Squares Shadowing (LSS), avoids this breakdown and advances the state of the art in sensitivity analysis for chaotic flows. The first application of LSS to a chaotic flow simulated with a large-scale computational fluid dynamics solver is presented. The LSS sensitivity computed for this chaotic flow is verified and shown to be accurate, but the computational cost of the current LSS implementation is high.

Blonigan, Patrick J.↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗