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DOE OSTI2018

Challenges to Evaluating Ecological Risks in Performance Assessments - 18424

Performance assessments (PAs), whether probabilistic or deterministic, have largely focused on evaluating human health effects of radionuclides. In the past, it was asserted that protecting human health would automatically protect the environment. This blanket assertion has been questioned, so tools and methodologies to directly estimate non-human biota dose have been developed and made available since the early 2000's. For example, the Biota Dose Assessment Committee (BDAC) guidance led to the development of the RESRAD-BIOTA (RESRAD stands for Residual Radioactive materials) software to implement this guidance. The BDAC was a US Department of Energy (DOE) led working group with members from academia and consultancies in addition to DOE technical staff. Parallel efforts have been in place in Europe with the development of the ERICA tool (Environmental Risk from Ionising Contaminants: Assessment and Management). More recently, interpretation of the requirements of US Department of Energy (DOE) Order O458.1 have led some waste management facilities to include ecological risks in addition to human health effects in their PAs. We have recently developed methodologies to assess ecological risks within probabilistic PAs (PPAs) for two Federal facilities. One of the challenges in applying the non-human biota assessment models to PPAs is that ecological risk assessments following US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or DOE guidance start with protective screening assessments before moving into more site-specific ecological risk assessments. Conservative assumptions bias the screening assessments and greatly overestimate the risks posed by contaminants. However, although the screens are biased they can be useful in ruling out model spatial domain areas or types of biota from requiring further assessment. In some cases, the results of the screen could entirely rule out ecological risks from further assessment. For a more refined and unbiased estimate of dose to non-human biota, one would typically conduct site-specific studies to better define exposure through the food web or adverse effects based on eco-toxicity studies of environmental, and generally weathered, contaminant mixtures. However, for PPAs that consider future site conditions after the loss of institutional control, such site-specific studies are not possible. Rather, site-specific future ecological risk models use probabilistic inputs that result in a distribution of population doses or exposures and calculate the distribution of possible adverse effects to ecological populations. This approach considers both radionuclide and chemical inventory. For both Federal facilities, the model spatial domains include riparian and aquatic environments located downstream of the waste management site. These riparian and aquatic environments represent linear exposure elements for some wildlife populations and require special consideration of exposures to individuals and to populations along such spatial domains. At a minimum, wildlife foraging should be focused along the axis of such water bodies. Another challenge is how to incorporate ecologically relevant spatial scales into models that have contaminant transport as the primary focus. Riparian and aquatic environments also have threatened and endangered (T and E) species, which necessitate greater levels of protection given their rarity. A final challenge for conducting ecological risk assessments is how to evaluate T and E species in the future. This might be addressed by evaluating potential for impacts on individuals of feeding guilds with species that are currently threatened or endangered. We also have to consider how ecological populations might change as a result of climate change. It is a more difficult problem to predict what species might become rare in the future, and how to best assess future populations of threatened or endangered species. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

An experimental system and procedure of unsteady-state relative permeability test for gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Reliable estimations of the relative permeability of gas and water in hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS) and the dependency of the relative permeability on hydrate saturation are critical to predict the productivity of a hydrate reservoir. Yet, this remains poorly estimated owing to lack of experimental data associated with difficulties in conducting multiphase flow experiments in HBS. Recognizing the experimental challenges, this study intends to develop and validate a new experimental system and procedure of unsteady-state relative permeability test that can generate reliable and reproducible flow measurements in HBS. Furthermore, gas hydrate is considered as a part of solid matrix in the sediment, so one of the challenges is to maintain a constant hydrate saturation, which is achieved in this experimental study using tight pressure-temperature (P-T) control near the hydrate stability boundary. The measured differential pressure across the specimen, methane injection flow rate, and volume of displaced brine are used to calculate the relative permeability by adopting a conventional Buckley-Leverett theory-based interpretation method. Residual brine saturation calculated for the hydrate-bearing specimen is higher than that of hydrate-free specimen, presumably due to decrease in pore size, increase in heterogeneity of solid matrix, and increase in size distribution of solid matrix and pore in the presence of hydrates. Further studies are necessary to represent the results of the unsteady-state flow experiment in HBS with a gas hydrate-dependent relative permeability model.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Black Carbon Aging in Global Models to Reflect Timescales for Internal Mixing

The radiative effects of black carbon depend critically on its atmospheric lifetime, which is controlled by the rate at which freshly emitted combustion particles become internally mixed with other aerosol components. Global aerosol models strive to represent this process, but the timescale for aerosol mixing is not easily constrained using observations. In this study, we apply a timescale parameterization derived from particle‐resolved simulations to quantify, in a global aerosol model, the timescale for internal mixing. We show that, while highly variable, the average timescale for internal mixing is approximately 3 hr, which is much shorter than the 24‐hr aging timescale traditionally applied in bulk aerosol models. We then use the mixing timescale to constrain the aging criterion in the Modal Aerosol Module. Our analysis reveals that, to best reflect timescales for internal mixing, modal models should assume that particles transition from the hydrophobic (fresh) to the hydrophilic (aged) class once they accumulate a coating thickness equal to four monolayers of sulfuric acid, as opposed to the model's current aging criterion of eight monolayers. We show that, in remote regions like the Arctic and Antarctic, predictions of black carbon loading and its seasonal variation are particularly sensitive to the model representation of aging. By constraining aging in global models to reflect mixing timescales simulated by the particle‐resolved model, we eliminate one of the free parameters governing black carbon's long‐range transport and spatiotemporal distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multi-scale Material Parameter Identification Using LS-DYNA® and LS-OPT®

Ever-tightening regulations on fuel economy, and the likely future regulation of carbon emissions, demand persistent innovation in vehicle design to reduce vehicle mass. Classical methods for computational mass reduction include sizing, shape and topology optimization. One of the few remaining options for weight reduction can be found in materials engineering and material design optimization. Apart from considering different types of materials, by adding material diversity and composite materials, an appealing option in automotive design is to engineer steel alloys for the purpose of reducing plate thickness while retaining sufficient strength and ductility required for durability and safety. A project to develop computational material models for advanced high strength steel is currently being executed under the auspices of the United States Automotive Materials Partnership (USAMP) funded by the US Department of Energy. Under this program, new Third Generation Advanced High Strength Steel (i.e., 3GAHSS) are being designed, tested and integrated with the remaining design variables of a benchmark vehicle Finite Element model. The objectives of the project are to integrate atomistic, microstructural, forming and performance models to create an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) toolkit for 3GAHSS. The mechanical properties of Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) are controlled by many factors, including phase composition and distribution in the overall microstructure, volume fraction, size and morphology of phase constituents as well as stability of the metastable retained austenite phase. The complex phase transformation and deformation mechanisms in these steels make the well-established traditional techniques obsolete, and a multi-scale microstructure-based modeling approach following the ICME [0]strategy was therefore chosen in this project. Multi-scale modeling as a major area of research and development is an outgrowth of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1996 which banned surface testing of nuclear devices [1]. This had the effect that experimental work was reduced from large scale tests to multiscale experiments to provide material models with validation at different length scales. In the subsequent years industry realized that multi-scale modeling and simulation-based design were transferable to the design optimization of any structural system. Horstemeyer [1] lists a number of advantages of the use of multiscale modeling. Among these are: the reduction of product development time by alleviating costly trial-and-error iterations as well as the reduction of product costs through innovations in material, product and process designs. Multi-scale modeling can reduce the number of costly large scale experiments and can increase product quality by providing more accurate predictions. Research tends to be focussed on each particular length scale, which enhances accuracy in the long term. This paper serves as an introduction to the LS-OPT and LS-DYNA methodology for multi-scale modeling. It mainly focuses on an approach to integrate material identification using material models of different length scales. As an example, a multi-scale material identification strategy, consisting of a Crystal Plasticity (CP) material model and a homogenized State Variable (SV) model, is discussed and the parameter identification of the individual material models of different length scales is demonstrated. The paper concludes with thoughts on integrating the multi-scale methodology into the overall vehicle design.

Stander, Nielen↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation data for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in F.SMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.

Active-layer thickness↗

DOE OSTI2017

Oil/water/rock wettability: Influencing factors and implications for low salinity water flooding in carbonate reservoirs

Wettability of the oil/brine/rock system is an essential petro-physical parameter which governs subsurface multiphase flow behaviour and the distribution of fluids, thus directly affecting oil recovery. Recent studies [1–3] show that manipulation of injected brine composition can enhance oil recovery by shifting wettability from oil-wet to water-wet. However, what factor(s) control system wettability has not been completely elucidated due to incomplete understanding of the geochemical system. To isolate and identify the key factors at play we used in this paper SO 4 2 —free solutions to examine the effect of salinity (formation brine/FB, 10 times diluted formation brine/10 dFB, and 100 times diluted formation brine/100 dFB) on the contact angle of oil droplets at the surface of calcite. We then compared contact angle results with predictions of surface complexation by low salinity water using PHREEQC software. We demonstrate that the conventional dilution approach likely triggers an oil-wet system at low pH, which may explain why the low salinity water EOR-effect is not always observed by injecting low salinity water in carbonated reservoirs. pH plays a fundamental role in the surface chemistry of oil/brine interfaces, and wettability. Our contact angle results show that formation brine triggered a strong water-wet system (35°) at pH 2.55, yet 100 times diluted formation brine led to a strongly oil-wet system (contact angle = 175°) at pH 5.68. Surface complexation modelling correctly predicted the wettability trend with salinity; the bond product sum ([>CaOH 2 + ][–COO - ] + [>CO 3 - ][–NH + ] + [>CO 3 - ][–COOCa + ]) increased with decreasing salinity. Finally, at pH < 6 dilution likely makes the calcite surface oil-wet, particularly for crude oils with high base number. Yet, dilution probably causes water wetness at pH > 7 for crude oils with high acid number.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatial Mapping of Riverbed Grain-Size Distribution Using Machine Learning

Recent alluvial sediments in riverbeds play a significant role in controlling hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in river systems. The alluvial layer is usually associated with strong heterogeneity in physical properties (e.g., permeability and hydraulic conductivity), which affects local HEFs and therefore biogeochemical processes. The spatial distribution of these physical properties needs to be determined to inform the numerical models used to reveal the realistic hydro-biogeochemical behaviors. Such information can be obtained based on the intrinsic link between sediment grain-size distribution and hydraulic properties where sediment texture information is available. However, grain-size measurements are usually spatially sparse and do not have adequate coverage and resolution, particularly for a relatively large domain such as the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. In this paper, we adopted machine learning (ML) approaches for categorizing and mapping the spatial distributions of riverbed substrate grain size and filling in missing areas of substrate data using the ML models along the reach. Such ML models for substrate size mapping were trained at 13,372 locations using measured substrate sizes along with observed and simulated attributes, including bathymetric attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect ratio) from LIDAR and bathymetric surveys, and hydrodynamic properties (e.g., water depth, velocity, shear stress, and their statistical moments). An ensemble bagging-based ML technique, Random Forest, was adopted to identify the most influential factors as predictors to develop the predictive models with over-fitting issues addressed. The models were evaluated with respect to each individual substrate size class and the lumped group, and then used to generate the final substrate size maps covering all the grid cells in the numerical modeling domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

ARC algorithm: A novel approach to forecast and manage daily electrical maximum demand

This paper proposes an innovative algorithm for predicting short-term electrical maximum demand by using historical demand data. The ability to recognize in peak demand pattern for commercial or industrial customers would propose numerous direct and indirect benefits to the customers and utility providers in terms of demand reduction, cost control, and system stability. Prior works in electrical maximum demand forecasting have been mainly focused on seasonal effects, which is not a feasible approach for industrial manufacturing facilities in short-term load forecasting. The proposed algorithm, denoted as the Adaptive Rate of Change (ARC), determines the logarithmic rate-of-change in load profile prior to a peak by postulating the demand curve as a stochastic, mean-reverting process. The rationale behind this analysis, is that the energy efficient program requires not only demand estimation but also to warn the user of imminent maximum peak occurrence. This paper analyzes demand trend data and incorporates stochastic model and mean reverting half-life to develop an electrical maximum demand forecasting algorithm, which is statistically evaluated by cross-table and F-score for three different manufacturing facilities. Lastly, the aggregate results show an overall accuracy of 0.91 and a F-score of 0.43, which indicates that the algorithm is effective predicting peak demand in predicting peak demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Predictions of time to HIV viral rebound following ART suspension that incorporate personal biomarkers

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Suspension of therapy is followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, there is significant heterogeneity in speed of rebound, with some rebounds occurring within days, weeks, or sometimes years. We present a stochastic mathematical model to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics, specifically characterizing the dynamics of short term viral rebounds (≤ 60 days). Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir, i.e., cell-associated HIV RNA levels, and drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our model. We then investigate insights offered by our model into the underlying dynamics of the latent reservoir. In particular, we refine previous estimates of viral recrudescence after ART interruption by accounting for heterogeneity in infection rebound dynamics, and determine a recrudescence rate of once every 2-4 days. Our parametrized model can be used to aid in design of clinical trials to study viral dynamics following analytic treatment interruption. We show how to derive informative personalized testing frequencies from our model and offer a proof-of-concept example. Our results represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions on a person living with HIV (PLWH)’s rebound time distribution based on biomarkers, and help identify PLWH with long viral rebound delays.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

AVESTAR Center for Operational Excellence of Electricity Generation Plants

To address industry challenges in attaining operational excellence for electricity generation plants, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has launched a world-class facility for Advanced Virtual Energy Simulation Training and Research (AVESTARTM). This presentation will highlight the AVESTARTM Center simulators, facilities, and comprehensive training, education, and research programs focused on the operation and control of high-efficiency, near-zero-emission electricity generation plants. The AVESTAR Center brings together state-of-the-art, real-time, high-fidelity dynamic simulators with full-scope operator training systems (OTSs) and 3D virtual immersive training systems (ITSs) into an integrated energy plant and control room environment. AVESTAR’s initial offering combines--for the first time--a “gasification with CO2 capture” process simulator with a “combined-cycle” power simulator together in a single OTS/ITS solution for an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant with carbon dioxide (CO2) capture. IGCC systems are an attractive technology option for power generation, especially when capturing and storing CO2 is necessary to satisfy emission targets. The AVESTAR training program offers a variety of courses that merge classroom learning, simulator-based OTS learning in a control-room operations environment, and immersive learning in the interactive 3D virtual plant environment or ITS. All of the courses introduce trainees to base-load plant operation, control, startups, and shutdowns. Advanced courses require participants to become familiar with coordinated control, fuel switching, power-demand load shedding, and load following, as well as to problem solve equipment and process malfunctions. Designed to ensure work force development, training is offered for control room and plant field operators, as well as engineers and managers. Such comprehensive simulator-based instruction allows for realistic training without compromising worker, equipment, and environmental safety. It also better prepares operators and engineers to manage the plant closer to economic constraints while minimizing or avoiding the impact of any potentially harmful, wasteful, or inefficient events. The AVESTAR Center is also used to augment graduate and undergraduate engineering education in the areas of process simulation, dynamics, control, and safety. Students and researchers gain hands-on simulator-based training experience and learn how the commercial-scale power plants respond dynamically to changes in manipulated inputs, such as coal feed flow rate and power demand. Students also analyze how the regulatory control system impacts power plant performance and stability. In addition, students practice start-up, shutdown, and malfunction scenarios. The 3D virtual ITSs are used for plant familiarization, walk-through, equipment animations, and safety scenarios. To further leverage the AVESTAR facilities and simulators, NETL and its university partners are pursuing an innovative and collaborative R&D program. In the area of process control, AVESTAR researchers are developing enhanced strategies for regulatory control and coordinated plant-wide control, including gasifier and gas turbine lead, as well as advanced process control using model predictive control (MPC) techniques. Other AVESTAR R&D focus areas include high-fidelity equipment modeling using partial differential equations, dynamic reduced order modeling, optimal sensor placement, 3D virtual plant simulation, and modern grid. NETL and its partners plan to continue building the AVESTAR portfolio of dynamic simulators, immersive training systems, and advanced research capabilities to satisfy industry’s growing need for training and experience with the operation and control of clean energy plants. Future dynamic simulators under development include natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC) plants with post-combustion CO2 capture. These dynamic simulators are targeted for use in establishing a Virtual Carbon Capture Center (VCCC), similar in concept to the DOE’s National Carbon Capture Center for slipstream testing. The VCCC will enable developers of CO2 capture technologies to integrate, test, and optimize the operation of their dynamic capture models within the context of baseline power plant dynamic models. The objective is to provide hands-on, simulator-based “learn-by-operating” test platforms to accelerate the scale-up and deployment of CO2 capture technologies. Future AVESTAR plans also include pursuing R&D on the dynamics, operation, and control of integrated electricity generation and storage systems for the modern grid era. Special emphasis will be given to combining load-following energy plants with renewable and distributed generating supplies and fast-ramping energy storage systems to provide near constant baseload power.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS Collab, Sanford U↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Controlling the distribution of microbially induced calcite precipitation in the subsurface

Microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP) has gained interest as an environmentally friendly method for a number of subsurface applications, including consolidation of granular materials, modification of permeability, metal and radionuclide immobilization, self-healing of concrete, etc. MICP relies on microorganisms that when provided with appropriate nutrients create chemical conditions conducive to calcite precipitation. A major challenge is controlling and predicting spatial distribution of precipitates, whether the target be uniform or nonuniform (e.g., in specific strata or locations) deposition. The spatial distribution depends on calcite precipitation kinetics, the kinetics of the biological and chemical reactions that generate the required Ca2+ and carbonate, locations and phase association of the microbial catalyst, and timing of the arrival of amendments introduced into the medium; the latter depends on hydraulic boundary conditions and medium properties (porosity, permeability). We present results from a field experiment where we sought to induce uniform precipitation relying only on indigenous microorganisms and calcium within an approximately 3 meter thick saturated zone between two wells located 4 meters apart. We employed a continuous recirculation design; water extracted from the downgradient well was amended with urea and molasses and re-injected into the upgradient well for 12 days and the aqueous chemistry and microbiology was monitored for 419 days. Measurements of substrates and products, and isotopic data for DIC all indicated desired reactions were stimulated within the zone and downstream, during active recirculation and afterward. The results could be reasonably simulated by postulating that the recirculation resulted in homogeneous aqueous geochemistry within the entire zone, that a metabolic lag time persisted during the recirculation period, and that native ureolytic microorganisms were all attached.While alternative scenarios cannot be ruled out, the data and model support that spatial distribution of urolytic calcite precipitation can be manipulated by engineering design, although still constrained by site hydrogeology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mechanisms for Methane Transport and Hydrate Accumulation in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

The distribution of natural methane hydrate within high saturation reservoirs and mechanisms that control the migration of methane are an active area of research. In this project, we studied methane migration mechanisms and associated hydrate accumulation rates in coarse-grained sands of the Terrebonne Basin, located in Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR313), northern Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate in this area is distributed heterogeneously within ~900 m of methane hydrate stability zone, in both thick (10-25 m) and thin (< 3 m) sand layers, and in units of subvertical hydrate-filled fractures. We investigated hydrate formation from diffusively and advectively supplied methane using one-, two-, and three-dimensional basin modeling with inputs from well log and seismic data. The hydrate accumulations at WR313 can mostly be explained by short, diffusive migration of methane as well as short-range advective transport of methane from clays into neighboring coarser-grained layers. This is likely enhanced by small-scale lithologic variations, including local microbial methanogenesis in interbedded clays. Furthermore, our work shows overpressure in clay sediments surrounding sand reservoirs may enhance short-range diffusive migration. Long-range migration of dissolved methane and gas mainly influence hydrate saturation right at the base of the hydrate stability zone, although the dissolved phase can be channeled upwards along sands by compaction-driven flow. Capillary effects can allow gas bubbles to migrate appreciable distances above the predicted base of gas hydrate stability, possibly reaching a few tens of meters into the hydrate stability zone. Recycling methane from hydrate buried beneath the base of the hydrate stability zone can concentrate hydrate at large saturations within a few tens of meters of the base of hydrate stability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗