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DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Contingency Analysis in Power Systems via Network Trigger Nodes

Modeling failure dynamics within a power system is a complex and challenging process due to multiple inter-dependencies and convoluted inter-domain relationships. Subject matter experts (SMEs) are interested in understanding these failure dynamics for reducing the impact from future disasters (i.e., losses or failures of power system components, such as transmission lines). Contingency analysis (CA) tools enable such ’what-if’ scenario analyses to evaluate the impacts on the power system. Analyzing all possible contingencies among N system components can be computationally expensive. An important step for performing CA is identifying a set of k ‘trigger’ components, which when failed initially can significantly impact the overall system by causing multiple failures. Currently SMEs focus on identifying these trigger components by running expensive simulations on all possible subsets, which quickly becomes infeasible. Hence finding a relevant set of trigger components (contingencies) rapidly to enable efficient and useful CA is crucial.In a collaboration between computer scientists and power system experts, we propose an efficient method for performing CA by exploiting network inter-dependencies in power system components. First, we construct a network with multiple electric grid infrastructure components and dependencies as connections among them. We reformulate the problem of finding a set of trigger components as a problem of identifying critical nodes in the network, which can cascade power failures through connected nodes and cause significant damage to the network. To guide the practical CA tools, we develop a network-based model with a probabilistic edge-weights setup using intricate domain rules. Then we conduct an empirical study on real power system data in the US for both regional and national levels. Firstly, we use power system datasets for the US to create a national-scale domain-driven model. Secondly, we demonstrate that network-based model outperforms the outputs from a real CA tool and show on average 25 × improved selection of contingencies, thereby showcasing practical benefits to the power experts.

Tabassum, Anika↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reconfigurable and Dynamic Distribution Systems Enabled Using Self-Sustainable Minimal-Microgrids with Region Based Stability Guarantees

In this paper, a reconfigurable and dynamic distribution system is designed using self-sustainable minimal-microgrids (min-MGs). Particularly, multiple dynamic microgrids are implemented by aggregating local min-MGs in a controllable way to facilitate service restoration at critical grid infrastructures, especially during severe power outages (e.g., those induced by natural disasters). These dynamic microgrids are implemented surrounding inverter interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) to pick up local critical loads. Stable transient process during neighboring microgrid disconnection and resynchronization is realized by involving additional control terms in the secondary control level. Meanwhile, in order to ensure a stable operation with dynamic topology change, a computationally efficient region-based stability assessment approach is developed to ensure stability guarantees of each inverter dominated min-MG with potential changes of external grids modeled as disturbances. In contrast to conventional point-by-point stability evaluation approaches, the proposed region-based stability analysis can intuitively exhibit the feasible region comprised of stable operating points and identify sufficient stability margin to tolerate disturbances of dynamic system topology variations. Theoretical analysis is verified using simulation in MATLAB/Simulink.

distribution systems↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ship-to-grid integration: Environmental mitigation and critical infrastructure resilience

The United States and European Union have an increasing number of projects that are engaging end-use devices for improved grid capabilities. Areas such as building-to-grid and vehicle-to-grid are simple examples of these increasing capabilities. In this paper, we present an innovative concept study for a ship-to-grid integration. The goal of this study is to simulate a two-way power flow between ship(s) and the grid with GridLAB-D for the port of Kyllini in Greece, where a ship-to-shore interconnection was recently implemented. Extending this further, we explore: (a) the ability of ships to meet their load demand needs, while at berth, by being supplied with energy from the electric grid and thus powering off their diesel engines; and (b) the ability of ships to provide power to critical loads. As a result, the ship-to-grid integration helps (a) mitigate environmental pollutants from the ships’ diesel engines and (b) provide resilience to areas affected by natural disasters.

Vlachokostas, Efthimios Alexandros↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Multi-agent Simulation Tool for Micro-scale Contagion Spread Studies

Within the disaster preparedness and emergency response community, there is interest in how contagions spread person-to-person at large gatherings and if mitigation strategies can be employed to reduce new infections. A contagion spread simulation module was developed for the Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit that allows a user to see how a geographically accurate layout of the gathering space helps or hinders the spread of a contagion. The results can inform mitigation strategies based on changing the physical layout of an event space. A case study was conducted for a particular event to calibrate the underlying simulation model. This paper presents implementation details of the simulation code that incorporates agent movement and disease propagation. Elements of the case study are presented to show how the tool can be used.

Koch, Daniel B↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decoding Ethiopian Abodes: Towards Classifying Buildings by Occupancy Type Using Footprint Morphology

Building occupancy classification plays a crucial role in urban planning, disaster management, and population modeling. Traditional methods often require extensive field surveys or detailed datasets, which can be time-consuming, expensive, and may yield incomplete or erroneous data. In this paper, we present a novel approach for classifying buildings as residential or non-residential using only building footprint data. By extracting geometric shape derivatives that characterize building morphology, we developed a high-accuracy classification model employing a combination of unsupervised and supervised learning methods. We utilized open-source data from Open Street Map, aggregating it to create binary labels for buildings based on their respective human use type. Our approach demonstrates the potential for scalability without the need for additional data sources other than building footprints and labels, offering a more efficient solution for building occupancy classification.

Adams, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decoupling Power Quality Issues in Grid-Microgrid Network Using Microgrid Building Blocks

Microgrids are evolving as promising options to enhance reliability of the connected transmission and distribution systems. Traditional design and deployment of microgrids require significant engineering analysis. However, Microgrid Building Blocks (MBB), consisting of modular blocks that integrate seamlessly to form effective microgrids, are promising technologies to enable faster and broader adoption of microgrids. Back-to-Back converter placed at the point of common coupling of microgrid is an integral part of MBB. This paper presents applications of MBB to decouple power quality issues in grid-microgrid network serving power quality sensitive critical loads such as data centers, new grid-edge technologies such as vehicle-to-grid generation, and emergency condition loads such as electric vehicle charging loads during evacuation prior disaster events. Simulation results show that MBB effectively decouple the power quality issues across networks and allow network with low power quality to transfer high-power quality power to connected networks during emergency conditions.

Acharya, Samrat S. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multilevel Semantic Labeling of Mobile Homes from Overhead Imagery

Finding where people live and the vulnerabilities of man-made facilities during natural disasters, is not only critical for rescue efforts, but also essential for damage assessment in the aftermath. Leveraging on the availability of high resolution satellite imagery, advances in machine learning and high performance computing hardware, it is now possible to generate geographical maps for man-made facilities at scale. Mapping from satellite imagery can be a daunting task due to the enormous amount of data to be processed over large areas. In this short paper we take advantage of annotated satellite imagery and automate the semantic labeling of mobile home parks using an efficient framework rooted in patch-based and pixel-level classification. This multilevel labeling effort is a precursor to our future goal for deploying very large scale deep convolutional neural networks toward both broad and finer characterization of man-made structures from one-meter resolution NAIP images.

Lunga, Dalton↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Automatic Vector Data Alignment to Satellite Imagery

Given the tremendous volume of accessible Earth Observation (EO) data, there is a need to develop scalable Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) solutions for time-sensitive applications. Scalability in this context refers to rapidly processing large-scale EO data using high performance computing resources. Accurate mapping of the built environment from remote sensing (RS) imagery has been one of the crucial components in GeoAI workflows for a wide spectrum of humanitarian applications. Derived vector data of built environment is often leveraged for disaster preparedness and response activities. However, factors such as differences in ortho-rectification, atmospheric conditions and human error, results in spatial misalignment between vector data and the timely available RS imagery. Model training for downstream tasks such as object detection, change analysis, etc., is negatively impacted due to such spatial misalignment. Although there has been progress towards automatic alignment of vector data, the lack of scalability remains an open research challenge. This paper proposes to leverage parallel computing to optimize an automatic vector data alignment workflow. It further employs CPU-level multi-core parallelism for improving the performance of the workflow for scalable built environment mapping. We report observations and discuss findings from the preliminary experiments performed on the Summit Supercomputer.

Potnis, Abhishek↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model-Free Dynamic Voltage Control of a Synchronous Generator-Based Microgrid

The main goal of this paper is to present a new dynamic voltage stability mechanism, based on model-free control (MFC), for effective control and coordination of synchronous generator (SG)-based reactive power resources in a microgrid setting. MFC has shown successful operation in various domains, and this paper presents its first use in the voltage stability of a power system. It is utilized as an online controller to achieve the dynamic voltage stability of a microgrid system under different disturbances and fault conditions. A 21-bus microgrid system fed by SG-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is considered as a use case study. The overall dynamic voltage stability of the microgrid system is investigated using time-domain dynamic simulations during emergency, hazard, and disaster events. Simulation results show that there are significant improvements and enhancements on the dynamic load bus voltage profiles of the microgrid system by the effective model-free control and coordination of the reactive power reserves of the SG-based DERs.

Hatipoglu, Kenan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proactive Posturing of Large Power Grid for Mitigating Hurricane Impacts

In the past decade, natural disasters such as hurricanes have challenged the operation and control of U.S. power grid more. It is crucial to develop proactive strategies to assist grid operators for better emergency response and minimized electricity service interruptions. In this paper, we propose a proactive posturing methodology of power system elements, and formulated a Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF) that informed by cross-domain hurricane modeling and its potential impacts on the grid elements. Simulation results based on real-world power grid and historical hurricane event validated the applicability of the proposed optimization formulation, and show potential to enable grid operators and planners with interactive cross-domain data analytics in mitigating hurricane impacts.

power system emergency response, security constrai↗
DOE OSTI2017

Earth Scientists Shake Things up on Titan

Two recent projects have used the Cray XK7 Titan supercomputer at the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory to study Earth's dynamics, specifically seismology-related studies. Using Titan, one team of researchers modeled Earth's interior using earthquake data, while a second team developed physics-based earthquake simulations for disaster management applications. Together, the projects demonstrate how leadership-class supercomputing provides context to scientific discussions and informs decision making among civic leaders.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformational Regional-Scale Earthquake Simulations with the DOE EarthQuake SIMulation Exascale Framework

Earthquakes present worldwide risk to economic and human safety. The 2023 earthquakes in Turkiye provided a reminder of the potential for catastrophic consequences with 50,700 deaths and 15.7 million people affected. The ability to predict ground motions and infrastructure damage for earthquakes continues to be a challenging problem for scientists and engineers. Until now, estimates of ground motions have been performed empirically by looking at sparse data from past earthquakes. This approach can provide statistical information on intensity amplitudes but cannot inform site-specific ground motions essential to developing the most effective resilience. Interest has grown in large-scale computational models to simulate earthquakes at regional scale. The U.S. Department of Energy EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework was developed for regional-scale earthquake simulations at unprecedented fidelity, taking advantage of emerging GPU-accelerated systems. This article describes the EQSIM workflow and demonstrates regional-scale simulations with the new computational capability available to scientists in their quest to mitigate future disasters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safeguarding the Grid: Diverse Resources for Resilience [In My View]

Reports on the vulnerability of the power grid. From wildfires, hurricanes, and floods to cyberattacks, the grid is vulnerable to natural and human-made disasters, which can cause widespread outages that last from hours to months and leave lasting economic impacts. Imagine a coastal region in the United States that has just been hit by a hurricane and lost all power. Besides the electricity infrastructure going out, communications networks, rail transportation, and gasoline pumps may also stop working after the emergency event, which often delays repair efforts to the grid. Unresponsive communications make it difficult to dispatch workers to repair the grid, and missing transportation links delay shipments of replacement equipment for the grid’s restoration.

cybersecurity↗
DOE OSTI2018

Chance-constrained Service Restoration for Distribution Networks with Renewables

Power systems operation is facing great challenges from natural disasters and cyber-attacks. It is critical but also difficult to enhance the reliability and resilience against extreme events. To better response to inevitable outages or blackouts, service restoration in distribution networks is important to minimize the disastrous impacts of catastrophic events. The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) provides new opportunities to expedite the restoration process. However, the coordination with conventional distribution system control devices and the uncertainty and variability of intermittent renewable energy resources requires new operation and control strategies for distribution service restoration (DSR). This paper develops an optimal bottom-up DSR strategy by coordinating DERs with voltage regulators and capacitor banks. The chance-constrained (CC) programming approach is used to model the probabilistic output limit of solar radiation and PV generation. The Markov's inequality and Latin hypercube sampling techniques are applied to convert and incorporate the chance constraints into the DSR optimization problem. The CC-DSR problem is formulated as a mixed integer convex programming problem, considering various operational cost functions and bidirectional three-phase unbalanced load flow. Simulation results on the modified IEEE 13-node test feeder system demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the bottom-up DSR strategy.

Chance constrained optimization, Distribution serv↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Critical Customer Outages Resulting from Extreme Hurricanes

US power outage data has been collected by organizations such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through Environment for Analysis Geo-Located Energy Infrastructure (EAGLE-I: freely available) and poweroutage.us (commercial data: available to purchase). However, these sources do not provide information specific to outages of critical customers. Critical customers include entities, facilities, and individuals whose continuous access to electricity is essential for public safety, emergency response, disaster recovery, the well-being of vulnerable populations, public safety and order, and public utilities such as natural gas, communications, water and sanitation. Identification and geolocation of critical customers is crucial for understanding and addressing the effects of power outages on essential services and ensuring that necessary measures are taken to maintain their operations during power disruptions. This work is a first step towards estimating the occurrences of critical customer outages and developing a critical customer power outage data repository. This work estimates outage incidents of critical customers through spatiotemporal mapping of power outage data, weather data, building data, and critical infrastructure network data. Our results show that critical customer effects vary across different counties. We provide appropriate mathematical explanations and simplifications to define and systematize the proposed approach.

Bhusal, Narayan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222752145)↗