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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating opportunity for distributed wind energy in rural and agricultural areas

Wind energy is among the most mature renewable energy technologies, accounting for 11% of the current US electricity generation in 2024, with the lowest average levelized cost. While it is known that substantial opportunity exists for further development, a key question has been where wind energy is best suited compared to other technologies. This study leverages an immense dataset of parcel-resolved technoeconomic potential for the contiguous United States, focusing on distributed wind (DW) energy—a configuration where one or more turbines, typically 30–60 m in height are used to satisfy nearby energy needs. The analysis is conducted at multiple spatial scales and considers land use, crop land, census, and incentive program data to determine the most opportune areas for market development. The results show that rural, agricultural and residential areas are most suited to DW. Connection type (in front of, or behind the meter) and regulations determine the best application, while siting constraints, economics, demand and the wind resource determines the optimal size of turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of the KSTAR experiments toward fusion reactor

The Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research has been focused on exploring the key physics and engineering issues for future fusion reactors by demonstrating the long pulse operation of high beta steady-state discharge. Advanced scenarios are being developed with the goal for steady-state operation, and significant progress has been made in high ℓ i , hybrid and high beta scenarios with β N of 3. In the new operation scenario called fast ion regulated enhanced (FIRE), fast ions play an essential role in confinement enhancement. GK simulations show a significant reduction of the thermal energy flux when the thermal ion fraction decreases and the main ion density gradient is reversed by the fast ions in FIRE mode. Optimization of 3D magnetic field techniques, including adaptive control and real-time machine learning control algorithm, enabled long-pulse operation and high-performance ELM-suppressed discharge. Symmetric multiple shattered pellet injections (SPIs) and real-time disruption event characterization and forecasting are being performed to mitigate and avoid the disruptions associated with high-performance, long-pulse ITER-like scenarios. Finally, the near-term research plan will be addressed with the actively cooled tungsten divertor, a major upgrade of the NBI and helicon current drive heating, and transition to a full metallic wall.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States

This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.

biodiesel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Abstract Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux‐based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long‐term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long‐term monitoring programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from Arabidopsis Plants Expressing Only the Redox-Regulated Rca-α Isoform Have Constrained Photosynthesis and Plant Growth

Rubisco activase (Rca) facilitates the release of sugar‐phosphate inhibitors from the active sites of Rubisco and thereby plays a central role in initiating and sustaining Rubisco activation. In Arabidopsis, alternative splicing of a single Rca gene results in two Rca isoforms, Rca‐α and Rca‐β. Redox modulation of Rca‐α regulates the function of Rca‐α and Rca‐β acting together to control Rubisco activation. Although Arabidopsis Rca‐α alone less effectively activates Rubisco in vitro , it is not known how CO2 assimilation and plant growth are impacted. Here, we show that two independent transgenic Arabidopsis lines expressing Rca‐α in the absence of Rca‐β (“Rca‐α only” lines) grew more slowly in various light conditions, especially under low light or fluctuating light intensity, and in a short day photoperiod compared to wildtype. Photosynthetic induction was slower in the Rca‐α only lines, and they maintained a lower rate of CO2 assimilation during both photoperiod types. Our findings suggest Rca oligomers composed of Rca‐α only are less effective in initiating and sustaining the activation of Rubisco than when Rca‐β is also present. Currently there are no examples of any plant species that naturally express Rca‐α only but numerous examples of species expressing Rca‐β only. That Rca‐α exists in most plant species, including many C3 and C4 food and bioenergy crops, implies its presence is adaptive under some circumstances.

Biomass Analytics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Work Plan for DPC Filler Testing

The US generates approximately 2,000 Metric Tons of Heavy Metal (MTHM) of commercial spent fuel (SNF) each year and currently stores ~ 85,000 MTHM of commercial SNF at 70+ reactor sites, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the US Department of Energy (DOE). SNF is initially stored in spent nuclear fueld pools (SFPs). SFPs were initially constructed by US utilities for temporary fuel storage, but with no final disposal pathway available, SFPs are reaching capacity. To allow continued operation of the nation's commercial nuclear reactor fleet, utilities started transferring SNF from SFPs (wet storage) to dry cask storage systems, typically using dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs). And while DPCs were designed, licensed and loaded to meet Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements that preclude the possibility of a critical event during SNF storage and transport, they were not designed or loaded to preclude the possibility of a criticality event during the regulated post-closure period following disposal, which could be up to 1,000,000 years (Price, 2019). DPC filler option criteria are detailed and materials that exhibit these attributes are explored. This document is an update of the SNL Joint Workplan on Filler Investigations for DPCs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Floating Chameleon: Floating Nuclear Power Plants and the Nexus of Maritime and Nuclear Security Law

During the 63rd regular session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference, as part of Norway's statement to the General Conference, Mr. Auden Halvorsen, State Secretary for Norway, made the following statement about transportable nuclear power plants (TNPPs): "Deployment of transportable nuclear power plants—TNPPs—demands our attention. The Agency must intensify its conversations of all aspects of the safety and security of such facilities. . . . The scope and applicability of existing requirements and instruments need to be clarified and developed including dialogue with the International Maritime Organization [IMO]." Ensuring the security of TNPPs is essential for their deployment and implementation. TNPPs may be floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs), which bring together elements of nuclear security related to the nuclear power plant with elements of maritime security. Insofar as an FNPP weds the principles of nuclear and maritime security, it also weds the two domains, the ancient traditions and contemporary practices of maritime law with the contemporary practices of nuclear law. Fundamentally, this raises the question, what are the legal requirements for the security of a FNPP? Although both maritime law and nuclear law have established regimes for security through various legal instruments, does an FNPP expose gaps between the current international legal instruments? The previous question of whether international legal regimes define requirements for the security of FNPPs, but a threshold question remains: what is an FNPP? For purposes of nuclear and maritime security, is an FNPP a facility, is an FNPP a vessel and therefore a transport, or does an FNPP change its status based upon temporal and spatial considerations such as when it is docked at a port generating power or in transit to its destination? This set of questions, and others addressed later in this article, highlights that the issue is not merely a question about security but intersects elements of safety whether an FNPP is in uncharted waters of the international regime for both nuclear and maritime law. Here, this paper addresses many of the questions posed above related to the security regulations for an FNPP.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultraconserved enhancer function does not require perfect sequence conservation

Ultraconserved enhancer sequences show perfect conservation between human and rodent genomes, suggesting that their functions are highly sensitive to mutation. However, current models of enhancer function do not sufficiently explain this extreme evolutionary constraint. We subjected 23 ultraconserved enhancers to different levels of mutagenesis, collectively introducing 1,547 mutations, and examined their activities in transgenic mouse reporter assays. Overall, we find that the regulatory properties of ultraconserved enhancers are robust to mutation. Upon mutagenesis, nearly all (19/23, 83%) still functioned as enhancers at one developmental stage, as did most of those tested again later in development (5/9, 56%). Replacement of endogenous enhancers with mutated alleles in mice corroborated results of transgenic assays, including the functional resilience of ultraconserved enhancers to mutation. Furthermore, our findings show that the currently known activities of ultraconserved enhancers do not necessarily require the perfect conservation observed in evolution and suggest that additional regulatory or other functions contribute to their sequence constraint.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arabidopsis plants expressing only the redox–regulated Rca–α isoform have constrained photosynthesis and plant growth

Rubisco activase (Rca) facilitates the release of sugar–phosphate inhibitors from the active sites of Rubisco and thereby plays a central role in initiating and sustaining Rubisco activation. In Arabidopsis, alternative splicing of a single Rca gene results in two Rca isoforms, Rca–α and Rca–β. Redox modulation of Rca–α regulates the function of Rca–α and Rca–β acting together to control Rubisco activation. Although Arabidopsis Rca–α alone less effectively activates Rubisco in vitro, it is not known how CO 2 assimilation and plant growth are impacted. Here, we show that two independent transgenic Arabidopsis lines expressing Rca–α in the absence of Rca–β (‘Rca–α only’ lines) grew more slowly in various light conditions, especially under low light or fluctuating light intensity, and in a short day photoperiod compared to wildtype. Photosynthetic induction was slower in the Rca–α only lines, and they maintained a lower rate of CO 2 assimilation during both photoperiod types. Here, our findings suggest Rca oligomers composed of Rca–α only are less effective in initiating and sustaining the activation of Rubisco than when Rca–β is also present. Currently there are no examples of any plant species that naturally express Rca–α only but numerous examples of species expressing Rca–β only. That Rca–α exists in most plant species, including many C3 and C4 food and bioenergy crops, implies its presence is adaptive under some circumstances.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned for Transmission Cost Allocation in U.S. Regional Markets

Expanding electric transmission can facilitate generator interconnection and improve grid reliability. Assigning costs for new transmission infrastructure is highly contentious because these costs can have a direct impact on energy prices and ratepayer bills. In this report, we evaluate what factors influence successful transmission cost allocation agreements. Through a review of legal disputes, existing cost allocation practices, and regional case studies, we identify potential strategies to minimize cost allocation disputes for future projects. The report also highlights the processes by which regions can update their cost allocation methods. While we do not consider cost allocation methods currently under development for compliance with FERC Order 1920, the trends and lessons learned identified in this report can inform discussions on effective cost allocation methods to reduce barriers for transmission development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Addressing Regulatory Burdens to Accessing Solar Among Municipal, Commercial and Institutional Customers Through Collaborative Partnerships (Final Technical Report)

The project focused on providing education to large energy customers, with a focus on local governments, to help them better understand and overcome barriers to solar energy adoption that currently exist (or could exist) in utility planning processes and/or within wholesale energy markets. The project team created accessible educational materials — ranging from reports to case studies to webinars — that could connect with stakeholders who rarely engage in these venues, have limited bandwidth to do so, and possess little previous knowledge of these issues. The project team focused on sharing lessons learned and best practices based on the experiences of other local governments and large energy users that have engaged on these issues, including the PJM Cities and Communities Coalition (PJMCCC). The project sought to better connect these customers and other stakeholders to deepen and expand opportunities for them to engage together on these issues, as well as build peer networks to facilitate the exchange of information. The project team held convenings of key partners — such as local governments, developers, regulators, utilities and large solar buyers — to discuss best practices, develop research products to broaden stakeholders’ knowledge base, and to foster these peer networks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Nuclear Facility Mission Completion Through an Improved Chemical Hazard Control Strategy - 20460

Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management [1], explicitly identifies hazardous materials in addition to radioactive materials when establishing the scope of materials that must be evaluated in Hazard Category (HC) 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. This inclusion has led to a near decade-long progression of more and more rigorous application of chemical hazard controls in these facilities. The progressive addition of more rigorous chemical hazard controls has occurred across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex, having been driven by contractors and regulators alike. However, chemical hazards in other DOE facilities have been, and continue to be, controlled using traditional industrial safety centered strategies. Thus, identical chemical hazards are controlled using dramatically different approaches based solely on the facility type. Not only are the controls different, the analysis and derivation rigor and requirements are also significantly different. In particular, chemical control derivation and application in non-nuclear facilities are much less onerous than the comprehensive hazard analysis process used in nuclear facilities, even in circumstances in which chemicals are not initiators to, or do not exacerbate a nuclear event. While the derivation and control approaches used in these two types of facilities are disparate, the safety results are similarly effective based on a review of reported chemical events from 2014 through 2018. While both approaches achieve comparable safety outcomes, the approach used in nuclear facilities results in significantly greater preparation costs and implementation costs. Furthermore, the problem with the differing approach is not relegated to the control preparation and implementation burden. The operational impact of potentially unnecessary controls slows mission completion without a corresponding increase in safety, not to mention the dilution of the importance of Technical Safety Requirements. The proposed solution must first include a critical and thorough examination of DOE Complex and top-tier chemical industry chemical hazard control practices, coupled with a similar examination of the driving facility regulatory requirements. Results from the examination can then be used to fuel a bold departure from current chemical control practices in Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. Development of an improved and consistent chemical hazard control process would follow, one that continues to ensure safety while accelerating mission completion and significantly reducing the burden associated with chemical hazard control development and implementation. The improved process must establish a hierarchy where radiological hazards are addressed using safety class and safety significant controls and chemical hazards are addressed using overarching safety management programs (with limited unique exceptions). The improved Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy, while compliant with 10 CFR 830 [1], would be founded on the requirements in 10 CFR 851, Worker Safety and Health Program [2], and the complementary DOE O 151.1D, Comprehensive Emergency Management System [3]. In this way, the Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy would, wherever appropriate, be the same process used at other DOE Complex facilities. Ultimately, the improved process will maintain safety and significantly reduce costs and life cycle risk through faster mission completion. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Knockdown of DDX46 suppresses the proliferation and invasion of gastric cancer through inactivating Akt/GSK-3β/β-catenin pathway

DEAD-box RNA helicase 46 (DDX46) has recently been identified as a candidate oncogene in several types of human malignancies. To date, the role of DDX46 in gastric cancer has not been determined. The purpose of the current study was to explore the role of DDX46 in gastric cancer and the potential mechanism. DDX46-silecing or overexpressing gastric cancer cell lines were established to validate the role of DDX46. Our results showed that the expression of DDX46 was significantly increased in gastric cancer tissues and cell lines. Knockdown of DDX46 suppressed the proliferation and invasion of gastric cancer cells. Whereas, DDX46 overexpression enhanced the cell proliferation and invasion of gastric cancer cells. Furthermore, knockdown of DDX46 markedly suppressed the tumor growth of xenografts. Research into the mechanism revealed that DDX46 depletion inhibited the Akt/GSK-3β/β-catenin signaling pathway in gastric cancer cells. Notably, activation of Akt or β-catenin overexpression reversed the DDX46 depletion-mediated anti-cancer effect. In conclusion, these findings indicated that DDX46 exerted an oncogenic role in gastric cancer via regulating the Akt/GSK-3β/β-catenin signaling pathway. Thus, DDX46 might be utilized as a therapeutic anti-cancer target.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-throughput chemical imaging for optimizing biofuel synthesis using synthetic biology (Final Technical Report)

Fatty acids can be produced biosynthetically in microbes and these compounds can serve as precursors to biodiesels and other high value oleochemicals. However, progress on engineering fatty acid biosynthesis, and biofuel synthesis more generally, has been hindered by current quantification methods that are either indirect or not amenable to high-throughput or single-cell resolution screening. In this project, we assembled an interdisciplinary team with complimentary expertise in synthetic biology and microscopy, metabolic engineering, and chemical imaging to address these challenges. We used chemical imaging to directly measure lipid biosynthesis in Escherichia coli engineered to produce fatty acids, obtaining detailed single-cell resolution measurements. We deployed stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) microscopy in concert with multiplexed genome engineering and gene circuit design strategies from synthetic biology to optimize production of fatty acids. These results provided novel insight into cell-to-cell heterogeneity present in biofuel production strains. In addition, we introduced new chemical imaging methods which are label-free and do not require fluorescent reporters. These efforts were complemented by other studied developing foundational tools for regulation and control, which offer excellent potential for advancing researchers’ ability to rapidly design, build, and test strains for enhanced biofuel synthesis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Targeting the Y-box Binding Protein-1 Axis to Overcome Radiochemotherapy Resistance in Solid Tumors

Multifunctional Y-box binding protein-1 (YB-1) is highly expressed in different human solid tumors and is involved in various cellular processes. DNA damage is the major mechanism by which radiochemotherapy (RCT) induces cell death. On induction of DNA damage, a multicomponent signal transduction network, known as the DNA damage response, is activated to induce cell cycle arrest and initiate DNA repair, which protects cells against damage. YB-1 regulates nearly all cancer hallmarks described to date by participating in DNA damage response, gene transcription, mRNA splicing, translation, and tumor stemness. YB-1 lacks kinase activity, and p90 ribosomal S6 kinase and AKT are the key kinases within the RAS/mitogen-activated protein kinase and phosphoinositide 3-kinase pathways that directly activate YB-1. Thus, the molecular targeting of ribosomal S6 kinase and AKT is thought to be the most effective strategy for blocking the cellular function of YB-1 in human solid tumors. In this review, after describing the prosurvival effect of YB-1 with a focus on DNA damage repair and cancer cell stemness, clinical evidence will be provided indicating an inverse correlation between YB-1 expression and the treatment outcome of solid tumors after RCT. In the interest of being concise, YB-1 signaling cascades will be briefly discussed and the current literature on YB-1 posttranslational modifications will be summarized. Finally, the current status of targeting the YB-1 axis, especially in combination with RCT, will be highlighted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗