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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Giant anisotropic in-plane thermal conduction induced by Anomalous phonons in pentagonal PdSe 2

In two-dimensional materials, different atomic stacking induces anisotropic atomic interactions and phonon dispersions, leading to the anisotropy of in-plane thermal transport. In this work, we report an exceptional case in layered pentagonal PdSe 2 , where the bonding, force constants, and lattice constants are nearly-equal along the in-plane crystallographic axis directions, while the thermal conductivity is surprisingly much greater along b-axis than along a-axis with a ratio up to 1.8. Such strong anisotropy is not only unexpected in in-plane uniform structured materials, but also 2 comparable to the record high in-plane anisotropic thermal conductivity in the nonuniform structured material reported to date (the ratio is ~2.0 in TiS 3 ). By combining the inelastic X-ray scattering measurement and the first-principles calculations, we attribute such high anisotropy to the low-energy phonons along a-axis, particularly their lower group velocities and “avoided-crossing” behavior. The different buckling structures between a- (zigzag-type) and b-axis (flat-type) are mainly responsible for such unique phonon dynamics properties of PdSe 2 . This finding helps to discover materials with high anisotropic in-plane thermal conductivity in uniform structures and reveals new physics of anisotropy of in-plane thermal conduction. Due to the unique features in structure and thermal transport properties, PdSe 2 may serve as a new platform for designing novel devices to route heat flow precisely at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Flexible all-organic nanocomposite films interlayered with in situ synthesized covalent organic frameworks for electrostatic energy storage

Poly(vinylidene fluoride)-based terpolymers, known for having the largest dielectric constant among the existing dielectric polymers, are attractive materials for electrostatic film capacitors used in lightweight electrification systems. However, the potential of these terpolymers in film capacitor applications remains constrained by their low electrical insulating and mechanical strengths. To address these limitations, we introduced rigid covalent organic framework (COF) nanospheres into the thin films of soft terpolymers via in situ synthesis and a facile layer-by-layer solution casting method, whereby multilayer films consisting of two polymer outer layers and a COF-containing middle layer were readily obtained. The resultant all-organic thin films exhibit simultaneously high dielectric constant, enhanced breakdown strength, superior energy density (~25 J cm –3 ) at efficiencies over 80%, along with greatly improved mechanical self-supporting capability and excellent mechanical flexibility. Here, this work demonstrates the unprecedented use of COF for electrostatic energy storage, uncovering its potential for flexible electronic applications operating under high electric fields.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Mini-CAPTAIN liquid argon time projection chamber

This manuscript describes the commissioning of the Mini-CAPTAIN liquid argon detector in a neutron beam at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE), which led to a first measurement of high-energy neutron interactions in argon. The Mini-CAPTAIN detector consists of a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) with an accompanying photomultiplier tube (PMT) array sealed inside a liquid-argon-filled cryostat. The liquid argon is constantly purified and recirculated in a closed-loop cycle during operation. The specifications and assembly of the detector subsystems and an overview of their performance in a neutron beam are reported.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of a digitizer for the plastic scintillation detectors of time-of-flight mass measurements

A CAEN DT5742 digitizer has been investigated to process the fast signals from the photomultiplier tubes of the time-of-flight detectors for fast ion beams. A test setup consisting of two plastic scintillation detectors and a pulsed laser source provided signals which were recorded by the digitizer and systematically analyzed with different algorithms to derive the amplitude, rise time and arrival time of the detection signal. To obtain the best amplitude and time resolutions, various optimization techniques including peak fitting and signal smoothing, interpolation improvement, and time-walk correction by amplitude and rise time have been performed and compared in detail. Here we compared the time resolutions obtained by three digital algorithms of leading-edge, zero-crossing constant-fraction (ZC-CFD) and direct constant-fraction discriminations. Finally, we found that the best time-of-flight resolution between two PMTs can be achieved as 12 ps by the method using sample minimum for peak location and using the time-walk-resistant ZC-CFD with 4-point interpolation for timing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beam dynamics in independent phased cavities

Linear accelerators containing the sequence of independently phased cavities with constant geometrical velocity along each structure are widely used in practice. The chain of cavities with identical cell lengths is utilized within a certain beam velocity range, with subsequent transformation to the next chain with higher cavity velocity. Design and analysis of beam dynamics in this type of accelerator are usually performed using numerical simulations. A full theoretical description of particle acceleration in an array of independent phased cavities has not been developed. In the present paper, we provide an analytical treatment of beam dynamics in such linacs employing Hamiltonian formalism. We begin our analysis with an examination of beam dynamics in an equivalent traveling wave of a single cavity, propagating within accelerating section with constant phase velocity. We then consider beam dynamics in arrays of cavities, utilizing an effective traveling wave propagating along with the whole accelerator with the velocity of synchronous (reference) particle. The analysis concluded with the determination of the matched beam conditions. Finally, we present a beam dynamics study in 805 MHz Coupled Cavity Linac of the LANSCE accelerator facility.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Second gadolinium loading to Super-Kamiokande

The first loading of gadolinium (Gd) into Super-Kamiokande in 2020 was successful, and the neutron capture efficiency on Gd reached 50%. To further increase the Gd neutron capture efficiency to 75%, 26.1 tons of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was additionally loaded into Super-Kamiokande (SK) from May 31 to July 4, 2022. As the amount of loaded Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was doubled compared to the first loading, the capacity of the powder dissolving system was doubled. We also developed new batches of gadolinium sulfate with even further reduced radioactive impurities. In addition, a more efficient screening method was devised and implemented to evaluate these new batches of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O. Following the second loading, the Gd concentration in SK was measured to be 333.5 ± 2.5 ppm via an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). From the mean neutron capture time constant of neutrons from an Am/Be calibration source, the Gd concentration was independently measured to be 332.7 ± 6.8(sys.) ± 1.1(stat.) ppm, consistent with the AAS result. Furthermore, during the loading the Gd concentration was monitored continually using the capture time constant of each spallation neutron produced by cosmic-ray muons, and the final neutron capture efficiency was shown to become 1.5 times higher than that of the first loaded phase, as expected.

Gadolinium↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of nitrogen molecular breakup on divertor conditions in JET L-mode plasmas using SOLPS-ITER

SOLPS-ITER simulations of nitrogen-seeded, low-confinement mode plasmas in the Joint European Torus (JET) predict that the electron temperature in the low-field side (LFS) divertor leg is reduced locally by up to an order of magnitude when nitrogen is assumed to recycle as molecules (N 2 ) instead of atoms using a fixed nitrogen injection rate. The LFS divertor temperature reduction under the assumption of molecular recycling occurs due to a three-step mechanism: (1) the plasma penetration of nitrogen atoms is increased due to the strong triple bond of the N 2 molecule and the kinetic energy release in the dissociation event, both mechanisms contributing equally, (2) the abundance of (particularly multiply-charged) nitrogen ions in the divertor is increased and (3) the electron temperature is reduced due to the increase in radiation (by up to a factor of 4) from nitrogen ions. Setting the volume-integrated nitrogen radiated power to a constant value (0.6 MW) instead of the nitrogen injection rate, SOLPS-ITER predicts under the molecular nitrogen recycling assumption that the peak line-integrated N II, N III and N IV intensities in the LFS divertor are approximately within 15%, 35% and 5%, respectively, of the reference atomic nitrogen recycling case. The predicted peak N II, N III and N IV intensities under either assumption are within 30%, 65% and 5%, respectively, of measurements using the vertically viewing mirror-link divertor spectrometer (Meigs et al., 2010) in nitrogen-seeded JET L-mode plasmas (Lomanowski et al., 2019). ERO2.0 simulations using a constant nitrogen seeding rate on static background plasma solutions from EDGE2D-EIRENE (previously presented in Mäenpää et al., (2022), revised here to include fast reflections) predict that N II to N IV line emission is increased by 20% to 30% when nitrogen is assumed to recycle as molecules, demonstrating the importance of considering the effect of molecular dissociation reactions on the divertor plasma in a self-consistent manner.

Divertor↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative study with two reduced test facilities for air-cooled RCCS scaling law

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted steady-state tests at constant heat flux conditions to investigate the scale effect on heat removal behavior of the air-cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). Two differently scaled-down test facilities were used in this study, KAERI’s ¼ scale with 4.0-m cavity height, and ANL’s ½ scale with 6.8-m cavity height. Two scaling laws were proposed to simulate the radiation across the cavity and the buoyancy-driven duct flow in the riser, respectively. The test matrix for KAERI and ANL test facilities focused on the scaling effect of the heated riser length with constant heat flux at the PMR200 RCCS design. The test results showed that mixed convection in the riser duct is an important factor for accurately extrapolating the thermo-fluid behavior in the prototype from the test results in the scale-down facilities. The system analysis code, GAMMA+, with improved heat transfer models predicted fairly well the air-cooled RCCS test data from two facilities. GAMMA+ analysis results showed that the predicted radiation fractions on the heated plate in the scale-down test conditions were larger than those on the reactor vessel in the prototype. The scaling law for air-cooled RCCS was improved by considering the mixed convection in the riser duct and the same radiation fraction on the heated plate. The mixed convection effect was calculated by the height ratio. The same radiation fraction provided a conservative extrapolation from the scale-down test results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying heavy quark transport coefficients with an improved transport model

We report that the heavy-flavor transport coefficients contain important information on the strong interaction at finite temperatures. The extraction of these numbers from experimental data requires dynamical modeling of heavy-flavor transport that is coupled to realistic medium evolution. Furthermore, meaningful extractions necessitate both a faithful implementation of the physical inputs to be tested and the quantification of model uncertainty. For these purposes, we have developed a partonic transport model LIDO. It has an improved treatment of in-medium parton bremsstrahlung, which has been calibrated to theoretical calculations in a simple medium to reduce modeling uncertainty. Regarding the interaction between heavy quark and the medium, few-body perturbative scatterings are applied to large-momentum transfer (q) processes, while a diffusion equation models the dynamics of small-q processes. Such a separation restricts the explicit use of medium quasi-particles to large-q processes only. Another advantage is that deviations from the leading-order probe-medium coupling can be parametrized as an additional contribution to the diffusion constant. The heavy quark transport coefficients are then extracted with uncertainty estimation from a Bayesian analysis including both the RHIC and the LHC data. The results are found to be consistent with earlier extraction of the light-quark transport coefficients at high momentum and be comparable with lattice calculations of the heavy-flavor diffusion constant in the static limit at low momentum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Results on elastic cross sections in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 510 GeV with the STAR detector at RHIC

We report results on an elastic cross section measurement in proton–proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 510 GeV, obtained with the Roman Pot setup of the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The elastic differential cross section is measured in the four-momentum transfer squared range 0.23 ≤ −t ≤ 0.67 GeV 2 . This is the only measurement of the proton-proton elastic cross section in this t range for collision energies above the Intersecting Storage Rings (ISR) and below the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) colliders. We find that a constant slope B does not fit the data in the aforementioned t range, and we obtain a much better fit using a second-order polynomial for B(t). This is the first measurement below the LHC energies for which the non-constant behavior B(t) is observed. The t dependence of B is also determined using six subintervals of t in the STAR measured t range, and is in good agreement with the phenomenological models. The measured elastic differential cross section dσ/dt agrees well with the results obtained at $\sqrt{s}$ = 540 GeV for proton–antiproton collisions by the UA4 experiment. We also determine that the integrated elastic cross section within the STAR t-range is σ$^{fid}_{el}$ = 462.1 ± 0.9(stat.) ± 1.1(syst.) ± 11.6(scale) μb.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High volume packing fraction TRISO-based fuel in light water reactors

We report that for a decade, fully ceramic microencapsulated (FCM) fuel, containing tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles in a silicon carbide (SiC) matrix, has been investigated as an accident-tolerant fuel for light water reactors (LWRs). Other examples exist of TRISO-based concepts for LWR fuels with different matrix materials. Previous studies assumed TRISO particle volume packing of approximately 0.44 in SiC (or another) matrix, the highest realistic packing fractions possible with conventional manufacturing. Recent advances in advanced manufacturing have yielded the development and demonstration of a fuel form that consists of conventionally manufactured TRISO particles in a 3D-printed SiC matrix with significantly higher possible TRISO packing fractions (0.5–0.7). This increased uranium loading enhances the viability of using TRISO-based particle fuel forms in LWRs. The viability of high-packing-fraction TRISO-based particle fuel forms in LWRs is assessed from the perspective of fuel cycle length, achievable fuel burnup, reactivity coefficients, and fuel cycle performance. Higher-packing-fraction TRISO-based fuel enables either longer cycle lengths (by ~25% at a packing fraction of 0.55 relative to 0.44) at a constant enrichment or decreased enrichments (by ~25% at a packing fraction of 0.55 relative to 0.44) at a constant cycle length. Studies of different fuel kernel types (uranium nitride, uranium oxycarbide, and uranium carbide) yield similar results, although the cycle length of uranium oxycarbide is shorter than for uranium nitride or uranium carbide (due to the lower density of uranium oxide). This work also characterized the production of 14 C resulting from neutron absorption in 14 N during operation for uranium mononitride fuel kernels; the ratio of 14 C/N was 1–2 at. % at discharge. For the fuel cycle evaluation, the activity of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste at 100 and 100,000 years was lower for high-packing-fraction fuels than for conventional LWR fuel. Environmental impact metrics were similar overall, but higher on the front end of the fuel cycle and lower on the back end of the fuel cycle. Reactivity coefficients of higher-packing-fraction TRISO-based fuel were reasonable compared with those of conventional fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The proton radius (puzzle?) and its relatives

We review determinations of the electric proton charge radius from a diverse set of low-energy observables. We explore under which conditions it can be related to Wilson coefficients of appropriate effective field theories. This discussion is generalized to other low-energy constants. This provides us with a unified framework to deal with a set of low-energy constants of the proton associated with its electromagnetic interactions. Unambiguous definitions of these objects are given, as well as their relation with expectation values of QCD operators. We show that the proton radius obtained from spectroscopy and lepton–proton scattering (when both the lepton and proton move with nonrelativistic velocities) is related to the same object of the underlying field theory with O ( α ) precision. The model dependence of these analyses is discussed. The prospects of constructing effective field theories valid for the kinematic configuration of present, or near-future, lepton–proton scattering experiments are explored.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling of oxygen-methane reacting coaxial jets using x-ray fluorescence to measure mixture fraction

Stoichiometric mixing length L s of reacting coaxial jet flames is a critical scaling parameter for liquid rocket engine combustors. Previous studies have shown that L s for shear coaxial flames can be scaled like their non-reacting counterparts using a non-dimensional momentum flux ratio J. In addition, stoichiometric mixing lengths of reacting and nonreacting coaxial jets collapse upon a single line by altering J using an effective outer flow gas density. This effective density is calculated from a modified version of the equivalence principle, originally developed by Tacina and Dahm [1, 2] and accounts for the effects of heat release on mixing. However, previous studies also required a second nonphysical scaling constant S c for the reacting jets, which is not predicted by the equivalence principle [3]. It was originally hypothesized that S c is attributed to the limitation of hydroxyl (OH) planar laser-induced fluorescence, which only infers L s . Direct quantitative measurement of conserved scalar fields using conventional optical diagnostics is difficult due to the lack of a tracer that easily fluoresces, survives high temperature oxygen flames, and is not dominated by quenching effects. To measure a conserved scalar field, this work implements x-ray fluorescence of Kr and Ar tracers to obtain quantitative mixture fraction fields. From these mixture fraction fields, stoichiometric mixing lengths for two CH 4 /O 2 flames are calculated and scaled against nonreacting coaxial mixing lengths using the equivalence principle. By directly measuring the stoichiometric mixing length, it is established that the additional constant is a byproduct of the OH measurement technique and the equivalence principle fully captures the scaling. Finally, comparison with high-fidelity simulation of the flame further supports this conclusion. In addition to further strengthening this scaling method, this work represents the first use of x-ray fluorescence to make quantitative conserved scalar measurements in turbulent flames.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the antiknock effect of anisole through an ignition, speciation and modeling study of its blends with isooctane

In order to unravel the reaction pathways relevant to anisole co-oxidation within a fuel blend, a detailed study of isooctane/anisole blends was performed with the ULille RCM. Ignition delays as well as mole fraction profiles were measured during a two-stage ignition delay using sampling and GC techniques. These results are used to validate a kinetic model developed from ab initio calculations for the most relevant rate constants which included H-atom abstraction reactions from anisole, and reactions on the potential energy surfaces of methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 . Pressure dependent rate constants were computed for the methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 reactive systems using master equation code analysis. The new kinetic model shows good agreement with the experimental data. Dual brute-force sensitivity analysis was performed, on both first- and second-stages of ignition, allowing the identification of the most important reactions in the prediction of both ignition delays. It was observed that while pure anisole does not show NTC behavior, a 60/40 isooctane/anisole blend displays such behavior, as well as two-stage ignition. This suggests anisole addition may not be as beneficial to knock resistance as expected from its high octane number. The kinetic modeling results demonstrate the importance of H-abstraction reactions both from the methoxy group and from the aryl ring in ortho-position and the addition of the resultant radicals to O2, mostly leading to the formation of polar or non-aromatic products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

High pressure ammonia/methanol oxidation up to 100 atm

Here, high pressure ammonia/methanol oxidation and NOx formations were investigated using a recently developed supercritical pressure jet-stirred reactor (SP-JSR) at 20 and 100 atm with temperatures between 550 and 950 K and equivalence ratios of 0.138 and 1.15. The experimental results show that NH 3 oxidation at high pressure is significantly accelerated by the active OH radicals produced from CH 3 OH oxidation. Furthermore, the kinetic interactions between NH 3 and CH 3 OH are governed mainly by the reactions CH 3 OH + NH 2 = CH 2 OH + NH 3 , CH 3 OH + NH 2 = CH 3 O + NH 3 , and CH 2 O + NH 2 = HCO + NH 3 . A HP-Mech model for high-pressure NH 3 /CH 3 OH oxidation was developed in this study. It consists of the most recent NH 3 and CH 3 OH models including some new reactions and updated rate constants from the literature as well as NH 3 -CH 3 OH interactions where rate constants of CH 3 OH + NH 2 = CH 2 OH + NH 3 , CH 3 OH + NH 2 = CH 3 O + NH 3 , NH 2 + CH 2 O = NH 3 + HCO, and NH 2 + CH 2 O = NH 2 CHO + H were theoretically calculated in this study. Our model with these updates improves the prediction for the measured N 2 O/NO x temperature dependence at 100 atm. In addition, the reaction pathway and sensitivity analysis show that N 2 O/NO x /HONO interactions with HO 2 are very important, especially for a fuel-lean mixture at 100 atm. The HONO mole fraction for the fuel-lean mixture at 100 atm was then measured by off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (ICOS) at wavenumber of 6638.26 cm -1 . The experimental data show a significant HONO formation at intermediate temperature that is strongly underpredicted by numerical simulation at 100 atm. Therefore, the HONO related reactions with notable uncertainty at high pressure such as NO + OH (+M) = HONO (+M) and H 2 NO + NO 2 = HONO + HNO need deeper exploration in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Superconductivity in a strange metal

In a gas of charged particles with the density n, mass m, and charge e, the electrical conductivity σ is given by the Drude formula: σ = ne 2 /mΓ, where Γ is the scattering rate. Standard metals are well described by Landau's Fermi Liquid (FL) theory, in which the electric current is carried by quasi-particles, low-energy excitations of the FL that resemble electrons with some effective mass m*. The scattering rate Γ= 1/τ= v F /l, where t is the (momentum) relaxation) time, l is the mean-free path, and v F is the Fermi velocity, can be expressed ("Matthiessen's Rule") as a sum of contributions from various scattering channels: Γ = Γ 0 + Γ el-el + Γ el-ph + …, where Γ 0 describes scattering on lattice imperfections, Γ el-el the electron-electron scattering, Γ el-ph the electron-phonon scattering, etc. Of these, Γ 0 = v F /l 0 , where l 0 is the average distance between the defects, is temperature-independent. Γ el-el should scale as T 2 because of Fermi statistics; for two electrons to scatter on one another, both must come from the "Debye shell" of the width k B T/E F , where k B is the Boltzmann constant and E F is the Fermi energy. Γ el-ph typically grows as T 5 , so we expect this to overwhelm the other channels at a high enough T. However, since l cannot be shorter than the distance between the atoms, the total Γ saturates at Mott-Ioffe-Regel (MIR) limit, roughly v F /a 0 , where v F is the Fermi velocity and a 0 is the lattice constant. The resistivity should also saturate at low T, at ρ 0 = m*v F /ne 2 l 0 T. FL theory also describes other electronic properties; e.g., it predicts that in the magnetic field B, the resistivity of the metal should increase with B 2 , because σ(B) = σ(B=0)/(1 + (ω c /Γ) 2 ), where ω c = eB/m*.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Responses of gaseous sulfuric acid and particulate sulfate to reduced SO 2 concentration: A perspective from long-term measurements in Beijing

SO 2 concentration decreased rapidly in recent years in China due to the implementation of strict control policies by the government. Particulate sulfate ( p S O 4 2 - ) and gaseous H 2 SO 4 (SA) are two major products of SO 2 and they play important roles in the haze formation and new particle formation (NPF), respectively. We examined the change in p S O 4 2 - and SA concentrations in response to reduced SO 2 concentration using long-term measurement data in Beijing. Simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model with a 2-D Volatility Basis Set (CMAQ/2D-VBS) were used for comparison. From 2013 to 2018, SO 2 concentration in Beijing decreased by ~81% (from 9.1 ppb to 1.7 ppb). p S O 4 2 - concentration in submicrometer particles decreased by ~60% from 2012–2013 (monthly average of ~10 μg·m - 3 ) to 2018–2019 (monthly average of ~4 μg·m - 3 ). Accordingly, the fraction of p S O 4 2 - in these particles decreased from 20–30% to <10%. Increased sulfur oxidation ratio was observed both in the measurements and the CMAQ/2D-VBS simulations. Despite the reduction in SO 2 concentration, there was no obvious decrease in SA concentration based on data from several measuring periods from 2008 to 2019. This was supported by the increased SA:SO 2 ratio with reduced SO 2 concentration and condensation sink. NPF frequency in Beijing between 2004 and 2019 remains relatively constant. Finally, this constant NPF frequency is consistent with the relatively stable SA concentration in Beijing, while different from some other cities where NPF frequency was reported to decrease with decreased SO 2 concentrations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗