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At least 739 records · Page 41

Experimental measurements and mathematical modeling of cold plate for aviation thermal management

Herein, this study, which has been motivated by the recent applications of the cold plate device in aviation thermal management, reports on physics-based mathematical models derived from the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and energy, and empiricism-based models. One of the objectives of the present work is to report on an elaborate and successful experimental work carried out on an additively manufactured device for the purpose of rigorously validating the numerical predictions. The excellent agreement between the numerical predictions and measured performance provides much needed confidence in the implementation, in the software package, of the offset-strip fin passage correlations, as well as in the software implementation of user-defined wavy fin correlations for aerospace heat exchangers and cold plates operating with ram air at Reynolds numbers below 8000. The contributions of this work can also be found in the development of a new and accurate thermal-hydraulic analysis procedure, referred to in this paper as plate-fin analogy. Results from this procedure are compared with those from thermal resistance network. The comparative study in this paper of the bulk and discrete enthalpy flux method is also new, as is the relative assessment of four off-set strip fin thermal-hydraulic models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation of two-layer model for underexpanded hydrogen jets

Previous studies have shown that the two-layer model more accurately predicts hydrogen dispersion than the conventional notional nozzle models without significantly increasing the computational expense. However, the model was only validated for predicting the concentration distribution and has not been adequately validated for predicting the velocity distributions. In the present study, particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was used to measure the velocity field of an underexpanded hydrogen jet released at 10 bar from a 1.5 mm diameter orifice. The two-layer model was the used to calculate the inlet conditions for a two-dimensional axisymmetric CFD model to simulate the hydrogen jet downstream of the Mach disk. The predicted velocity spreading and centerline decay rates agreed well with the PIV measurements. The predicted concentration distribution was consistent with data from previous planar Rayleigh scattering measurements used to verify the concentration distribution predictions in an earlier study. The jet spreading was also simulated using several widely used notional nozzle models combined with the integral plume model for comparison. These results show that the velocity and concentration distributions are both better predicted by the two-layer model than the notional nozzle models to complement previous studies verifying only the predicted concentration profiles. Thus, this study shows that the two-layer model can accurately predict the jet velocity distributions as well as the concentration distributions as verified earlier. Though more validation studies are needed to improve confidence in the model and increase the range of validity, the present work indicates that the two-layer model is a promising tool for fast, accurate predictions of the flow fields of underexpanded hydrogen jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Dynamic oxidation of (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 -Coated interconnects for solid oxide electrolysis cells

Solid oxide electrolysis cell stacks are expected to experience dynamic conditions when using renewable electricity derived from wind or solar power. To address this scenario, (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 (MCO)-coated Crofer 22 APU interconnect coupons are subjected to thermal cycling, and intermittent current density, with gas compositions relevant to high-temperature electrolysis (elevated steam:hydrogen ratio and oxygen content). Defects are also intentionally introduced in the MCO coating, to assess whether the difference in oxidation properties of the adjacent coated and uncoated (defective) surfaces causes sufficient stress to damage the protective oxide scale. Specimens with defects are subjected to oxidation for 1000 h at 800 °C, or thermal cycling. Before thermal cycling, some specimens are pre-oxidized to create a thick oxide scale to mimic the scale thickness expected after ~30 kh operation. In all cases, the coating and oxide scale remain well adhered with no cracking observed. Area-specific resistance (ASR) is monitored in both single-atmosphere and dual-atmosphere conditions, and the ASR is stable and is not impacted by dynamic cycling of the current density. Finally, this work provides confidence that the MCO coated interconnect will function as needed in dynamic operation conditions, even with coating defects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Dynamic operation of metal-supported solid oxide electrolysis cells

Symmetric-structure metal-supported solid oxide fuel cells and electrolysis cells (MS-SOFCs, MS-SOECs) offer several advantages over conventional solid oxide cells, including the use of inexpensive materials, high mechanical strength, and rapid ramp-up ability. Aggressive operation of MS-SOCs in fuel cell mode is well-established, including extremely fast start-up, redox tolerance, and imbalanced pressure. Here, we extend dynamic operation to MS-SOCs in SOEC mode with high steam content for both small button cells and a large rectangular cell, including: steam cycling, thermal cycling, redox cycling and power cycling. Steam cycling entailed switching between 3:97 and 50:50 steam:hydrogen ratio. For thermal cycling, the temperature was rapidly varied between 150°C and 700°C for 50 cycles. Redox cycling involved switching the steam side gas between 50 % humidified H 2 and 50 % humidified N 2 for 5 cycles. Power cycling was performed by operating the cell under variable current density, resulting in cell voltage between 1.3V and 2.8V. Degradation rates for each testing strategy were compared to a baseline cell, and found to be similar. In conclusion, the excellent tolerance to dynamic operation increases confidence that MS-SOECs will be compatible with dynamic or intermittent renewable resources.

08 HYDROGEN↗

3D optical diagnostics for explosively driven deformation and fragmentation

High-speed, optical imaging diagnostics are presented for three-dimensional (3D) quantification of explosively driven metal fragmentation. At early times after detonation, Digital Image Correlation (DIC) provides non-contact measures of 3D case velocities, strains, and strain rates, while a proposed stereo imaging configuration quantifies in-flight fragment masses and velocities at later times. Experiments are performed using commercially obtained RP-80 detonators from Teledyne RISI, which are shown to create a reproducible fragment field at the benchtop scale. DIC measurements are compared with 3D simulations, which have been ‘leveled’ to match the spatial resolution of DIC. Overall, results demonstrate improved ability to identify predicted quantities-of-interest that fall outside of measurement uncertainty and shot-to-shot variability. Similarly, video measures of fragment trajectories and masses allow rapid experimental repetition and provide correlated fragment size-velocity measurements. Measured and simulated fragment mass distributions are shown to agree within confidence bounds, while some statistically meaningful differences are observed between the measured and predicted conditionally averaged fragment velocities. Together these techniques demonstrate new opportunities to improve future model validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Logistic Regression in Clinical Studies

• A logistic regression model is used when the outcome of interest is binary. The term “logistic” refers to the underlying “logit” (log odds) function that is used to model the binary outcome. • Odds ratios are produced from a logistic regression model and have a useful interpretation. • Tips, tricks and concepts used to fit logistic regression models are similar to those used in linear regression models. • Modeling building that is knowledge-based rather than automatic is preferred in most applications of logistic regression. • A logistic regression model that is overparameterized (ie, too many variables for too few events) can result in odds ratios that are implausibly large and confidence intervals that are wide and uninterpretable. These types of “overfitted” models should be avoided. • Logistic regression models can be fit using most standard statistical software.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Is Remote Learning as Effective as In-Person Learning for Contouring Education? A Prospective Comparison of Face-to-Face versus Online Delivery of the Anatomy and Radiology Contouring Bootcamp

The Anatomy and Radiology Contouring (ARC) Bootcamp was a face-to-face (F2F) intervention providing integrated education for radiation oncology (RO) residents and medical physicists. To increase access, we launched an online offering in 2019. We evaluated the effect of the online course on participants' knowledge acquisition, contouring skills, and self-confidence by comparing it with the F2F course.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Fuel reid vapor pressure level and ethanol content on stochastic preignition, effects at steady and unsteady engine operation

The present work investigates relations between fuel Reid vapor pressure (RVP) and biofuel (ethanol) content on stochastic preignition (SPI) at both sustained steady-state engine operation and following load transients. This work stems from in-field observations that automotive original equipment manufacturers have observed consistent seasonal increases in United States customer drivability complaints and warranty claims during September and October where SPI is suspected to be responsible. The seasonal timing of these events coincides with the United States seasonal fuel property changeover initiating on September 15 each year, where fuel RVP increases. To explore potential linkage between fuel RVP and SPI the present study employs engine SPI experiments coupled with laboratory spray measurements of fuels with RVPs of 8, 12, and 16 psi in both E10 (10% ethanol) and E25 (25% ethanol) fuels. Engine results are partitioned into fuel RVP and ethanol content effects on SPI in steady-state, sustained high-load engine operation and unsteady-state low- to high-load transitions, where off-engine spray vessel patternation and tip penetration results help to elucidate the observed fuel effects on SPI. A boosted direct-injected, spark-ignition engine was fueled with three market relevant E10 and E25 fuels with RVPs of 8, 12, and 16 to characterize the interplay between winter fuels and abnormal combustion behavior. The steady-state work shows that for high-load, steady-state engine operation, SPI is directly linked to fuel retention, which was found to be dependent on fuel distillation. The unsteady-state engine operation work shows that following low-to high-load transitions, SPI can occur from a memory of fuel property effects at low-load operation. Specifically, the fuel RVP effect on fuel spray collapse at low loads was found to correlate with SPI with a more than 95% confidence interval following low- to high-engine-load transitions. Results suggest that fuel-wall impingement at low-load operation could carry over into high-load transitions and generate SPI events following low- to high-load transitions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Automated bidirectional coupling of multiscale models of aerosol dosimetry: Validation with subject-specific deposition data

Assessing the toxicity of airborne particulate matter or the efficacy of inhaled drug depends upon accurate estimates of deposited fraction of inhaled materials. In silico approaches can provide important insights into site- or airway-specific deposition of inhaled aerosols in the respiratory system. In this study, we improved on our recently developed 3D/1D model that simulate aerosol transport and deposition in the whole lung over multiple breath cycles. A subject-specific multiscale lung model of a healthy male subject using computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) in a 3D model of the oral cavity through the large bronchial airways entering each lobe was bidirectionally coupled with a recently improved Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model to predict aerosol deposition over the entire respiratory tract over multiple breaths for four conditions matching experimental aerosol exposures in the same subject from which the model was developed. These include two particle sizes (1 and 2.9 μm) and two subject-specific breathing rates of ~300 ml/s (slow breathing) and ~750 ml/s (fast breathing) at a target tidal volume of 1 L. In silico predictions of retained fraction were 0.31 and 0.29 for 1 μm and 0.66 and 0.62 for 2.9 μm during slow and fast breathing, respectively, and compared well with experimental data (1 μm: 0.31 ± 0.01 (slow) and 0.27 ± 0.01 (fast), 2.9 μm: 0.63 ± 0.03 (slow) and 0.68 ± 0.02 (fast)). Furthermore, these results provide a great deal of confidence in the validity and reliability of our approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Novel nonwetting solid-infused surfaces for superior fouling mitigation

Fouling is a ubiquitous issue in several environmental and energy applications. Here we introduce novel nonwetting solid-infused surfaces (SIS) with superior anti-fouling characteristics that are durable than conventional nonwetting surfaces in a dynamic flow environment. A systematic study is presented to elucidate the fouling mitigation performance of SIS in comparison to lubricant-infused surface (LIS) and conventional smooth surface. Copper tubes with SIS, LIS or smooth inner walls are fabricated and subjected to accelerated calcium sulfate fouling in a flow fouling experimental setup. Fouling on the various surface types is quantified in terms of asymptotic fouling resistance, and the fundamental morphological differences in the interactions of the foulant and the various surface types are analyzed. Based on a systematic sweep of the parameter combinations using design of experiments and Taguchi analysis, an analytical dependence of asymptotic fouling resistance on the governing parameters namely, Reynolds number, foulant concentration and temperature is derived. The analytical model is shown to predict the asymptotic fouling resistance to within 20% accuracy with a 95% confidence. In addition, for the first time, the effects of shear durability on the fouling mitigation performance of LIS vis-à-vis SIS are studied. It is shown that the novel nonwetting SIS offers a robust option for superior fouling mitigation over LIS in the long run.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Influence of urban extent discrepancy on the estimation of surface urban heat island intensity: A global-scale assessment in 892 cities

The estimation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) is crucial for studying the urban thermal environment, which is influenced not only by the commonly known definition of rural reference but also by the delineation of urban extent. Existing studies relies on various urban extent products defined in different ways, and the influence of urban extent discrepancy (UED) on SUHII estimates still remains unclear. In this study, we collected five open-source global urban extent products (GUEPs) for the year 2015 and corresponding daily land surface temperature (LST) observations (MYD11A1). Based on these products, we quantified the UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates by comparing absolute difference (ΔSUHII AD ) and relative difference (ΔSUHII RD ) in SUHII among GUEPs across 892 global cities. Additionally, we introduced an ISF-constrained (ISF–C) method to reduce SUHII differences among GUEPs by constraining the impervious surface fraction (ISF) within urban and rural extents. The results show that urban extents delineated by different GUEPs are not consistent, leading to their difference in ISF as well as LST, which in turn causes uncertainties in the estimated SUHII. On average for global cities, the annual daytime and nighttime ΔSUHII AD are 0.46 ± 0.02 °C (mean ± 95% confidence interval) and 0.24 ± 0.01 °C, with corresponding ΔSUHII RD of 42.0 ± 2.7% and 35.2 ± 2.3%, respectively. The UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates varies among climate zones, and the annual daytime ΔSUHII RD averaged for cities located in the arid zone reaches up to 60.8 ± 6.6%, which is nearly twice as high as that in other climate zones. More importantly, both ΔSUHII AD and ΔSUHII RD show lower values when using the ISF-C method, implying the effectiveness of this method. This study highlights the non-negligible impact of UED on the estimation of SUHII, which requires more attention due to the inconsistency of urban extents among current products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Projected network performance for next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Next-generation radioxenon monitoring systems are reaching maturity and are expected to improve certain aspects of performance in verifying the absence of nuclear tests. To predict the improvement in detecting and locating nuclear releases, thousands of releases all over the globe were simulated and the global detection probability was calculated. This was done for the International Monitoring System network of noble gas samplers as it currently exists (25 certified stations), and how it would be for potential future network sizes of 39 and 79 stations. The probability of detection was calculated for releases ranging from 10 10 Bq to 10 16 Bq of 133 Xe and presented as coverage maps and global integrals for both current and next-generation monitoring systems. Similarly, the number of detecting stations and the number of detecting samples were tabulated to elucidate the possibilities for enhanced location capability. Improvements in global detection coverage are maximized at different release sizes in a way that depends on the station density. For example, for releases of 3×10 14 Bq and 39 stations, the detection probability would rise from 60% to 70% with next-generation systems, while for releases of 10 13 Bq and 79 stations, it would rise from 37% to 52%. Achieving an average of two detecting stations requires a 1015 Bq release for a 39-station network and a 10 14 Bq release for a 79-station network. The largest impact of using next-generation systems may be the confidence, failure tolerance, and location capability that arise from obtaining multiple samples associated with a single release event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Separations of U/Pu and Np/Pu using fluoride volatility

Here the importance of uranium/plutonium and neptunium/plutonium separations at large scale or at environmental levels is such that the reactivity of nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3 ) with respect to other fluorinating reagents warranted investigation. We show that NF 3 does not convert PuO 2 or PuF 4 to PuF 6 , during separations of U/Pu and Np/Pu, even under forcing conditions. Herein, this is analytically demonstrated to trace level. This rather exclusive behavior has been reported for only one other reagent: BrF 3 . Confidence in this result now allows for rapid and selective separations of volatile UF 6 and NpF 6 from plutonium. Preliminary data concerning the separation of 233 Pa from 237 Np is also described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes , Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli , and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the United States between 2000 and 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Raw (unpasteurized) milk is available for sale and direct human consumption within some states in the United States (US); it cannot be sold or distributed in interstate commerce. Raw milk may contain pathogenic microorganisms that, when consumed, may cause illness and sometimes may result in death. No comprehensive review for prevalence and levels of the major bacterial pathogens in raw milk in the US exists. The objective of the present research was to systematically review the scientific literature published from 2000 to 2019 to estimate the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), and Campylobacter spp. in raw milk in the US. Peer-reviewed studies were retrieved systematically from PubMed®, Embase®, and Web of ScienceTM. The unique complete nonduplicate references were uploaded into the Health Assessment Work Collaborative (HAWC). Based on the selection criteria, twenty studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) was used for statistical analyses, specifically, random effects meta-analyses were used to synthesize raw bulk tank milk (BTM) and milk filters (MF) data. Data from studies using culture and non–culture-based detection methods were included. Forest plots generated in CMA (Biostat, Englewood, NJ) were used to visualize the results. The average prevalence (event rate) of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., STEC, and Campylobacter spp. in raw BTM in the US was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.8–6.5%), 3.6% (95% CIs, 2.0–6.2%), 4.3% (95% CIs, 2.4–7.4%), and 6.0% (95% CIs, 3.2–10.9%), respectively. Estimated prevalence was generally larger in MF than in BTM. There was not enough data to perform a meta-analysis for the prevalence or levels of pathogens in raw milk from retail establishments or other milk categories.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Updated neutrino mass constraints from galaxy clustering and CMB lensing-galaxy cross-correlation measurements

In this work, we revisit cosmological constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses Σm v from a combination of full-shape BOSS galaxy clustering [P(k)] data and measurements of the cross-correlation between Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing convergence and BOSS galaxy overdensity maps [$C_{l}^{kg}$], using a simple but theoretically motivated model for the scale-dependent galaxy bias in auto- and cross-correlation measurements. We improve upon earlier related work in several respects, particularly through a more accurate treatment of the correlation and covariance between P(k) and $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements. When combining these measurements with Planck CMB data, we find a 95% confidence level upper limit of Σm v sum of neutrino masses < 0.14 eV, while slightly weaker limits are obtained when including small-scale ACTPol CMB data, in agreement with our expectations. We confirm earlier findings that (once combined with CMB data) the full-shape information content is comparable to the geometrical information content in the reconstructed BAO peaks given the precision of current galaxy clustering data, discuss the physical significance of our inferred bias and shot noise parameters, and perform a number of robustness tests on our underlying model. While the inclusion of $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements does not currently appear to lead to substantial improvements in the resulting Σm v of neutrino mass constraints, we expect the converse to be true for near-future galaxy clustering measurements, whose shape information content will eventually supersede the geometrical one.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗