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At least 739 records · Page 41

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗

How We Can Constrain Aerosol Type Globally

In addition to aerosol number concentration, aerosol size and composition are essential attributes needed to adequately represent aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in models. As the nature of ACI varies enormously with environmental conditions, global-scale constraints on particle properties are indicated. And although advanced satellite remote-sensing instruments can provide categorical aerosol-type classification globally, detailed particle microphysical properties are unobtainable from space with currently available or planned technologies. For the foreseeable future, only in situ measurements can constrain particle properties at the level-of-detail required for ACI, as well as to reduce uncertainties in regional-to-global-scale direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF). The limitation of in situ measurements for this application is sampling. However, there is a simplifying factor: for a given aerosol source, in a given season, particle microphysical properties tend to be repeatable, even if the amount varies from day-to-day and year-to-year, because the physical nature of the particles is determined primarily by the regional environment. So, if the PDFs of particle properties from major aerosol sources can be adequately characterized, they can be used to add the missing microphysical detail the better sampled satellite aerosol-type maps. This calls for Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses (SAM-CAAM). We are defining a relatively modest and readily deployable, operational aircraft payload capable of measuring key aerosol absorption, scattering, and chemical properties in situ, and a program for characterizing statistically these properties for the major aerosol air mass types, at a level-of-detail unobtainable from space. It is aimed at: (1) enhancing satellite aerosol-type retrieval products with better aerosol climatology assumptions, and (2) improving the translation between satellite-retrieved aerosol optical properties and species-specific aerosol mass and size that are tracked in aerosol transport and climate models used to assess aerosol forcing and its anthropogenic components. This presentation will summarize where we stand on the development of the SAM-CAAM concept.

DARF↗

Dependence of Cumulus Anvil Radiative Properties on Environmental Conditions in the Tropical West Pacific

Areally extensive, optically thick anvil clouds associated with mesoscale convective clusters dominate the shortwave cloud forcing in the tropics and provide longwave forcing comparable to that of thin cirrus. Changes in the cover and optical thickness of tropical anvils as climate warms can regulate the sign of cloud feedback. As a prelude to the study of MMCR data from the ARM TWP sites, we analyze ISCCP-derived radiative characteristics of anvils observed in the tropical west Pacific during the TOGA-COARE IOP. Anvils with radius greater than 100 km were identified and tracked from inception to decay using the Machado-Rossow algorithm. Corresponding environmental conditions just prior to the start of the convectove event were diagnosed using the Lin-Johnson objective analysis product. Small clusters (100-200 km radius) are observed to have a broad range of optical thicknesses (10-50), while intermediate optical thickness clusters are observed to range in size from 100 km to almost 1000 km. Large-size clusters appear to be favored by strong pre-storm large scale upward motion throughout the troposphere, moist low-to-midlevel relative humidities, environments with slightly higher CAPE than those for smaller clusters, and strong front-to-rear flow. Optically thick anvils are favored in situations of strong low-level moisture convergence and strong upper-level shear.

Ye, B.↗

The DC-8 Submillimeter-Wave Cloud Ice Radiometer

An airborne radiometer is being developed to demonstrate the capability of radiometry at submillimeter-wavelengths to characterize cirrus clouds. At these wavelengths, cirrus clouds scatter upwelling radiation from water vapor in the lower troposphere. Radiometric measurements made at multiple widely spaced frequencies permit flux variations caused by changes in scattering due to crystal size to be distinguished from changes in cloud ice content. Measurements at dual polarizations can also be used to constrain the mean crystal shape. An airborne radiometer measuring the upwelling submillimeter-wave flux should then able to retrieve both bulk and microphysical cloud properties. The radiometer is being designed to make measurements at four frequencies (183 GHz, 325 GHz, 448 GHz, and 643 GHz) with dual-polarization capability at 643 GHz. The instrument is being developed for flight on NASA's DC-8 and will scan cross-track through an aircraft window. Measurements with this radiometer in combination with independent ground-based and airborne measurements will validate the submillimeter-wave radiometer retrieval techniques. The goal of this effort is to develop a technique to enable spaceborne characterization of cirrus, which will meet a key climate measurement need. The development of an airborne radiometer to validate cirrus retrieval techniques is a critical step toward development of spaced-based radiometers to investigate and monitor cirrus on a global scale. The radiometer development is a cooperative effort of the University of Colorado, Colorado State University, Swales Aerospace, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory and is funded by the NASA Instrument Incubator Program.

Walter, Steven J.↗

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗

Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was used.

Yasunari, Tppei J.↗

Characterizing Wet Season Precipitation in the Central Amazon Using a Mesoscale Convective System Tracking Algorithm

To comprehensively characterize convective precipitation in the central Amazon region, we utilize the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed through satellite measurements and simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting resolution. This study spans a 2-month period during the wet seasons of 2014 and 2015. We observe a strong correlation between the MCS track density and accumulated precipitation in the Amazon basin. Key factors contributing to precipitation, such as MCS properties (number, size, rainfall intensity, and movement), are thoroughly examined. Our analysis reveals that while the overall model produces fewer MCSs with smaller mean sizes compared to observations, it tends to overpredict total precipitation due to excessive rainfall intensity for heavy rainfall events (≥10 mm hr –1 ). These biases in simulated MCS properties could vary with the constraints on the convective background environment. Moreover, while the wet bias from heavy (convective) rainfall outweighs the dry bias in light (stratiform) rainfall, the latter can be crucial, particularly when MCS cloud cover is significantly underestimated. A case study for 1 April 2014 highlights the influence of environmental conditions on the MCS lifecycle and identifies an unrealistic model representation in both stratiform and convective precipitation features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamical Response of Mediterranean Precipitation to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901-2010, roughly one-third (31+/-17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol-cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.

Tang, Tao↗

A Comparative Study of Straight-Strip and Zigzag-Interleaved Anode Patterns for MPGD Readouts

Due to their simplicity and versatility of design, straight strip or rectangular pad anode structures are frequently employed with micro-pattern gas detectors to reconstruct high precision space points for various tracking applications. The particle impact point is typically determined by interpolating the charge collected by several neighboring strips. However, to effectively extract the inherent positional information, the lateral spacing of the straight strips must be comparable to or preferably smaller than the full extent of the incident charge cloud. In contrast, highly interleaved anode patterns, such as zigzags, can adequately sample the incident charge with a pitch appreciably larger than the charge cloud.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Seasat and floating ice

Data collected by SEASAT would be useful in developing predictive physical models for the drift and deformation of sea ice, for estimating the heat budget of the polar seas, for the optimum routing of shipping through pack ice areas, for the design of both offshore structures and shipping capable of surviving in heavy pack ice, and for the tracking of large icebergs and ice islands. The instrument package for SEASAT-A is particularly useful for studying sea ice in that the Coherent Imaging Radar (CIR), the Scanning Multifrequency Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the Compressed Pulse Radar Altimeter (CPRA) are not limited by the presence of clouds.

Weeks, W. F.↗

Reaction Mechanisms and Particle Interaction in Burning Two-Phase Systems

The main objective of this research is to understand the mechanisms by which particle interactions affect ignition and combustion in the two-phase systems. Combustion of metal aerosols representing the two-phase systems is carried out in the microgravity environment enabling one to avoid the buoyant flows that mask the particle motion due to the particle-particle interaction effects. In addition, relatively large, e.g., 100 micron diameter particles can be used, that remain aerosolized (i.e., do not fall down as they would at normal gravity) so that their behavior ahead, behind, and within the propagating flame can be resolved optically. An experimental apparatus exploiting this approach has been designed for the 2.2-s drop tower microgravity experiments. A typical experiment includes fluidizing metal particles under microgravity in an acoustic field, turning off the acoustic exciter, and igniting the created aerosol at a constant pressure using a hot wire igniter. The flame propagation and details of the individual particle combustion and particle interactions are studied using high-speed movie and video cameras coupled with microscope lenses to resolve individual particles. Recorded flame images are digitized and various image processing techniques including flame position tracking, color separation, and pixel by pixel image comparisons are employed to understand the processes occurring in the burning aerosols. Condensed combustion products are collected after each experiment for the phase, composition, and morphology analyses. New experiments described in this paper address combustion of Ti and Al particle clouds in air and combustion of Mg particle clouds in CO2. In addition, microgravity combustion experiments have been conducted with the particles of the newly produced Al-Mg mechanical alloys aerosolized in air.

Dreizin, Edward L.↗

Automated Data Production For A Novel Airborne Multiangle Spectropolarimetric Imager (AIRMSPI)

A novel polarimetric imaging technique making use of rapid retardance modulation has been developed by JPL as a part of NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. It has been built into the Airborne Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager (AirMSPI) under NASA's Airborne Instrument Technology Transition Program, and is aimed primarily at remote sensing of the amounts and microphysical properties of aerosols and clouds. AirMSPI includes an 8-band (355, 380, 445, 470, 555, 660, 865, 935 nm) pushbroom camera that measures polarization in a subset of the bands (470, 660, and 865 nm). The camera is mounted on a gimbal and acquires imagery in a configurable set of along-track viewing angles ranging between +67 deg and -67 deg relative to nadir. As a result, near simultaneous multi-angle, multi-spectral, and polarimetric measurements of the targeted areas at a spatial resolution ranging from 7 m to 20 m (depending on the viewing angle) can be derived. An automated data production system is being built to support high data acquisition rate in concert with co-registration and orthorectified mapping requirements. To date, a number of successful engineering checkout flights were conducted in October 2010, August-September 2011, and January 2012. Data products resulting from these flights will be presented.

Multi-angle↗

Isokinetic TWC Evaporator Probe: Development of the IKP2 and Performance Testing for the HAIC-HIWC Darwin 2014 and Cayenne-2015 Field Campaigns

A new Isokinetic Total Water Content Evaporator (IKP2) was downsized from a prototype instrument, specifically to make airborne measurements of hydrometeor total water content (TWC) in deep tropical convective clouds to assess the new ice crystal Appendix D icing envelope. The probe underwent numerous laboratory and wind tunnel investigations to ensure reliable operation under the difficult high altitude/speed/TWC conditions under which other TWC instruments have been known to either fail, or have unknown performance characteristics. The article tracks the testing and modifications of the IKP2 probe to ensure its readiness for three flight campaigns in 2014 and 2015. Comparisons are made between the IKP2 and the NASA Icing Research Tunnel reference values in liquid conditions, and to an exploratory technique estimating ice water content from a bulk ice capture cylinder method in glaciated conditions. These comparisons suggest that the initial target of 20 percent accuracy in TWC has been achieved and likely exceeded for tested TWC values in excess of about 0.5 gm (exp -3). Uncertainties in the ice water content reference method have been identified. Complications are introduced in the necessary subtraction of an independently measured background water vapour concentration, errors of which are small at the colder flight temperatures, but increase rapidly with increasing temperature, and ultimately limit the practical use of the instrument in a tropical convective atmosphere to conditions colder than about 0 degrees C. A companion article in this conference traces the accuracy of the components of the IKP2 to derive estimated system accuracy.

Meteorological Instruments↗

Isokinetic TWC Evaporator Probe: Development of the IKP2 and Performance Testing for the HAIC-HIWC Darwin 2014 and Cayenne 2015 Field Campaigns

A new Isokinetic Total Water Content Evaporator (IKP2) was downsized from a prototype instrument, specifically to make airborne measurements of hydrometeor total water content (TWC) in deep tropical convective clouds to assess the new ice crystal Appendix D icing envelope. The probe underwent numerous laboratory and wind tunnel investigations to ensure reliable operation under the difficult high altitude/speed/TWC conditions under which other TWC instruments have been known to either fail, or have unknown performance characteristics. The article tracks the testing and modifications of the IKP2 probe to ensure its readiness for three flight campaigns in 2014 and 2015. Comparisons are made between the IKP2 and the NASA Icing Research Tunnel reference values in liquid conditions, and to an exploratory technique estimating ice water content from a bulk ice capture cylinder method in glaciated conditions. These comparisons suggest that the initial target of 20% accuracy in TWC has been achieved and likely exceeded for tested TWC values in excess of about 0.5/cu gm. Uncertainties in the ice water content reference method have been identified. Complications are introduced in the necessary subtraction of an independently measured background water vapor concentration, errors of which are small at the colder flight temperatures, but increase rapidly with increasing temperature, and ultimately limit the practical use of the instrument in a tropical convective atmosphere to conditions colder than about 0 C. A companion article in this conference traces the accuracy of the components of the IKP2 to derive estimated system accuracy.

Meteorological Instruments↗

TRACER-Coastal Urban Boundary-Layer Interactions with Convection (TRACER-CUBIC) Field Campaign Report

To better understand the complicated web of processes governing convective cloud life cycle and aerosol-convection interactions, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility supported deployment of a variety of advanced atmospheric measurement systems to the greater Houston, Texas, area from 1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022 as part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER). Houston was selected as a study area because isolated convection and a variety of aerosol conditions are common in this region. This one-year ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) deployment featured a four-month intensive operational period (IOP) during summer 2022 (1 June–30 September). The ARM instrumentation was deployed at three sites along an east-west transect from La Porte, Texas to an ancillary site in a less-polluted rural region southwest of downtown Houston (Figure 1). At the La Porte Site, which is located near the Houston ship channel in an area that experiences significant pollution, the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) was deployed. During the IOP, the ARM tethered balloon system (TBS) operated at the ancillary site. The second-generation C-Band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR) operated near Pearland, Texas, roughly halfway between the Laporte and ancillary sites. As part of the TRACER- Coastal Urban Boundary-Layer Interactions with Convection (CUBIC) project, three boundary-layer profiling systems) were deployed along a north-south transect spanning from the University of Houston Coastal Center to the Aldine site north of downtown Houston (also blue dot in Figure 1) during the TRACER IOP. These systems included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory CLAMPS2 (C2), which was deployed at the UHCC, the University of Wisconsin SPARC, which was deployed at the ARM CSAPR site near Pearland (orange diamond in middle of map in Figure 1), and the University of Oklahoma CLAMPS1 (C1), which was deployed at Aldine. These three systems have been successfully operated in various field campaigns, providing data sets that collectively offer new insights into atmospheric-boundary-layer (ABL) processes, sea-breeze (SB) circulations, and convection initiation (CI). For the TRACER IOP window, these systems ran continuously between 1 June and 26 September, 2022. Due to commitments to NOAA projects, the Doppler lidar at the UHCC site was not available until 24 June 2022. The CLAMPS and SPARC profiling systems are self-contained platforms that have benefited from several years of development and deployment. Instruments and data processing were maintained remotely, which made the 4-month deployment for the TRACER-CUBIC IOP period possible. The same basic instrument configuration comprises each system: a scanning Doppler wind lidar for flow characterization and passive profiler(s) for characterizing planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) thermodynamic properties. Each platform includes a Halo Streamline Doppler wind lidar, an Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), and a surface meteorology station. CLAMPS1 and CLAMPS2 each also include a microwave radiometer (MWR, Figure 1d). The TRACER-CUBIC hypotheses included (i) Interactions of SB and urban circulations and how they affect the PBL structure in the Houston environment, causing spatially (horizontally and vertically) and temporally highly variable flow patterns, (ii) heat, moisture, and aerosol transport and mixing depend on these flow dynamics, and (iii) an improved understanding of the flow patterns and PBL structure are critical for investigating the processes leading to CI. To test these hypotheses, the project aimed at (i) characterizing SB circulations and their impacts on the diurnal evolution of the structure of the ABL, (ii) studying the evolution of Houston’s complex urban boundary layer, and (iii) identifying effects of urban-induced circulations on pre-convective environments. TRACER-CUBIC observations generally provide good coverage during the summer IOP. Initial screening of the data indicates a good number of cases with bay-breeze (BB) and/or SB signatures, local CI, and interesting boundary-layer features such as strong nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs, Table 1). The numbers listed in rows 3-5 in this table will be further updated as part of ongoing in-depth analyses and systematic identification of local circulations and CI events. More detailed information about the data availability and quality for each instrument is provided in the “readme” files that were submitted to the ARM Data Center along with each archived data sets. These “readme” files also provide instrument descriptions, information about the data collection and processing procedures, data formats, and any additional information relevant for further data analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Refining Processing Engines from SAPHIRE: Initialization of Fault Tree/Event Tree Solver

SAPHIRE has been extensively employed for over 35 years to model risk-important systems and quantify risk models. As a well-established and thoroughly documented Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tool, SAPHIRE has continuously tracked computational trends and received regular updates. Despite its ongoing evolution, there remains a need for further enhancements, particularly in dealing with the quantification of exceptionally large models. These improvements could take the form of algorithmic advancements, harnessing the power of parallel computing, and exploring the potential benefits of cloud computing solutions. Considering these aspirations, the notion of a remote solve option was introduced and subsequently evolved into a dedicated project within the SAPHIRE development team. A significant outcome of this initiative is SAPHSOLVE, an engine extracted from the SageRisk API designed specifically for remote solving capabilities. The ongoing project is nearing its culmination, marked by a series of discoveries that have brought undocumented aspects to light. Among these revelations is the intricacy of the input and output format for the SAPHSOLVE engine. This document serves the crucial purpose of meticulously delineating the precise formats for both input and output, as they form an indispensable foundation. The importance of documenting these formats cannot be overstated, as it is a pivotal step in facilitating rigorous testing and comparison. Whether it involves scrutinizing SAPHSOLVE results against those of the internal integrated solver or other external solvers, the ability to construct models or transform existing ones into a compatible SAPHSOLVE format is imperative. Chapter 1 offers a succinct introduction to both SAPHIRE and SAPHSOLVE, followed by Chapter 2 which outlines the roadmap for enhancing SAPHSOLVE. The core of this report is Chapter 3, which intricately elucidates the intricacies of the input and output file formats. To provide a tangible illustration of these formats, a rudimentary example has been compiled and is available in Appendix. SAPHSOLVE represents a novel external solving mechanism developed by the SAPHIRE team, although it has not yet reached the full spectrum of capabilities possessed by SAPHIRE's internal solver. However, the SAPHIRE team has set a comprehensive course for incorporating the functionalities of SAPHSOLVE. A comprehensive outlook on the future of SAPHSOLVE is expounded upon in Chapter 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measurements of TRACER pre-convective conditions and mesoscale circulations using small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS)

Improved comprehension of the physical processes governing convective cloud formation and lifecycle are of critical importance for understanding and predicting future climate states. The influence of these clouds on the planetary energy budget, including on precipitation, is significant. Things are particularly complex in coastal regimes, where gradients in aerosol particle properties, localized circulations such as sea breezes, and large population centers are found. To date, numerical models struggle to accurately represent these critical clouds and are therefore challenged to provide a realistic view on the planetary energy budget. Through the proposed research, we deployed two uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) equipped with a variety of instruments alongside sensors deployed by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for the TRACER (Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment) field campaign. The two small UAS platforms consisted of a CU RAAVEN fixed-wing airplane and an OU CopterSonde system, with the copter collecting frequent vertical profiles of thermodynamic and kinematic variables such as temperature, pressure, wind and humidity. At the same time, the fixed-wing captured horizontal gradients of these quantities and aerosol size distribution. These systems were deployed south of the Houston metro area, in an area that is impacted by the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze on a daily basis. These observations offer enhanced and complementary perspectives to those provided by the DOE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) which is was deployed in southeast Houston, and an ancillary site in a more rural location west of the urban Houston area. Quality-controlled versions of the UAS data were collected and posted on the DOE ARM data archive after the conclusion of the campaign where they are accessible by the research community and general public. The UAS perspective offers revolutionary insight into key spatial and temporal effects that have not been evaluated previously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DELVE-ing into the Jet: A Thin Stellar Stream on a Retrograde Orbit at 30 kpc

We perform a detailed photometric and astrometric analysis of stars in the Jet stream using data from the first data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey DR1 and Gaia EDR3. We discover that the stream extends over ∼ 29° on the sky (increasing the known length by 18°), which is comparable to the kinematically cold Phoenix, ATLAS, and GD-1 streams. Using blue horizontal branch stars, we resolve a distance gradient along the Jet stream of 0.2 kpc deg$^{−1}$, with distances ranging from D $_{⊙}$ ∼ 27–34 kpc. We use natural splines to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and intensity to quantitatively characterize density variations in the Jet stream, including a large gap, and identify substructure off the main track of the stream. Furthermore, we report the first measurement of the proper motion of the Jet stream and find that it is well aligned with the stream track, suggesting the stream has likely not been significantly perturbed perpendicular to the line of sight. Finally, we fit the stream with a dynamical model and find that it is on a retrograde orbit, and is well fit by a gravitational potential including the Milky Way and Large Magellanic Cloud. These results indicate the Jet stream is an excellent candidate for future studies with deeper photometry, astrometry, and spectroscopy to study the potential of the Milky Way and probe perturbations from baryonic and dark matter substructure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗