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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

Neigh, C. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface skin temperature are observed over central Europe: we observe a difference of 9.8 K comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996 for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average Ina for February 1990 was 10.6 in s(exp -1), but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m s(exp -1). A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions result, which we observe in February 1990 at 700 mb. The near-surface moisture rises to higher (and cooler) levels, producing clouds and precipitation. Total preciptable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios can be translated into a virtual irradiating source of 2.6 W m(exp -2) above the February 1990 atmosphere, which, as an order of magnitude estimate, contributes to the warming of the surface by 2.6 K. If we accept this estimate as numerically pertinent, the direct effect stands as 7.2 K (9.8 K - 2.6 K), and therefore its greenhouse-effect reinforcement is by 36%. This constitutes a substantial positive feedback to the direct effect, which is the inflow of warm air to the low troposphere over Europe.

Otterman, Jay↗
NASA NTRS1987

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Carleton, Andrew M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land–Atmosphere Coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A Comparison on Local Convective Regimes between ARM Observations, Reanalysis, and Climate Model Simulations

Using the 9-yr warm-season observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site, in this work we assess the land–atmosphere (LA) coupling in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and two climate models: hindcasts with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 by Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAM5-CAPT) and nudged runs with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 Regionally Refined Model (EAMv1-RRM). We focus on three local convective regimes and diagnose model behaviors using the local coupling metrics. NARR agrees well with observations except a slightly warmer and drier surface with higher downwelling shortwave radiation and lower evaporative fraction. On clear-sky days, it shows warmer and drier early-morning conditions in both models with significant underestimates in surface evaporation by EAMv1-RRM. On the majority of the ARM-observed shallow cumulus days, there is no or little low-level clouds in either model. When captured in models, the simulated shallow cumulus shows much less cloud fraction and lower cloud bases than observed. On the days with late-afternoon deep convection, models tend to present a stable early-morning lower atmosphere more frequently than the observations, suggesting that the deep convection is triggered more often by elevated instabilities. Generally, CAM5-CAPT can reproduce the local LA coupling processes to some extent due to the constrained early-morning conditions and large-scale winds. EAMv1-RRM exhibits large precipitation deficits and warm and dry biases toward mid-to-late summers, which may be an amplification through a positive LA feedback among initial atmosphere and land states, convection triggering and large-scale circulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

Randall, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiphase outflows in post-starburst E+A galaxies - II. A direct connection between the neutral and ionized outflow phases

ABSTRACT Post-starburst E+A galaxies are systems that hosted a powerful starburst that was quenched abruptly. Simulations suggest that these systems provide the missing link between major merger ULIRGs and red and dead ellipticals, where AGN feedback is responsible for the expulsion or destruction of the molecular gas. However, many details remain unresolved and little is known about AGN-driven winds in this short-lived phase. We present spatially resolved IFU spectroscopy with MUSE/VLT of SDSS J124754.95-033738.6, a post-starburst E+A galaxy with a recent starburst that started 70 Myr ago and ended 30 Myr ago, with a peak SFR of $\sim 150\, \mathrm{M_{\odot }\,yr^{ -1}}$. We detect disturbed gas throughout the entire field of view, suggesting triggering by a minor merger. We detect fast-moving multiphased gas clouds, embedded in a double-cone face-on outflow, which are traced by ionized emission lines and neutral NaID emission and absorption lines. We find remarkable similarities between the kinematics, spatial extents, and line luminosities of the ionized and neutral gas phases, and propose a model in which they are part of the same outflowing clouds, which are exposed to both stellar and AGN radiation. Our photoionization model provides consistent ionized line ratios, NaID absorption optical depths and EWs, and dust reddening. Using the model, we estimate, for the first time, the neutral-to-ionized gas mass ratio (about 20), the sodium neutral fraction, and the size of the outflowing clouds. This is one of the best ever observed direct connections between the neutral and ionized outflow phases in AGN.

Baron, Dalya↗
NASA NTRS2009

Phytoplankton and Climate

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Moisan, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Environmental Catastrophes in the Earth's History Due to Solar Systems Encounters with Giant Molecular Clouds

In its motion through the Milky Way galaxy, the solar system encounters an average density (>=330 H atoms/cubic cm) giant molecular cloud (GMC) approximately every 108 years, a dense (approx 2 x 103 H atoms/cubic cm) GMC every approx 109 years and will inevitably encounter them in the future. However, there have been no studies linking such events with severe (snowball) glaciations in Earth history. Here we show that dramatic climate change can be caused by interstellar dust accumulating in Earth's atmosphere during the solar system's immersion into a dense (approx ,2 x 103 H atoms/cubic cm) GMC. The stratospheric dust layer from such interstellar particles could provide enough radiative forcing to trigger the runaway ice-albedo feedback that results in global snowball glaciations. We also demonstrate that more frequent collisions with less dense GMCs could cause moderate ice ages.

Pavlov, Alexander A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Land-Atmosphere Coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A Comparison on Local Convective Regimes Between ARM Observations, Reanalysis, and Climate Model Simulations

Using the 9-yr warm-season observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site, we assess the land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling in North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and two climate models: hindcasts with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 by Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAM5-CAPT) and nudged runs with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 Regionally Refined Model (EAMv1-RRM). We focus on three local convective regimes and diagnose model behaviors using the Local Coupling metrics (Santanello et al. 2018). NARR agrees well with observations except a slightly warmer and drier surface with higher downwelling shortwave radiation and lower evaporative fraction. On clear-sky days, it shows warmer and drier early-morning conditions in both models with significant underestimates in surface evaporation by EAMv1-RRM. On the majority of the ARM-observed shallow cumulus days, there is no or little low-level clouds in either model. When captured in models, the simulated shallow cumulus shows much less cloud fraction and lower cloud bases than observed. On the days with late-afternoon deep convection, models tend to present a stable early-morning lower atmosphere more frequently than the observations, suggesting that the deep convection is triggered more often by elevated instabilities. Generally, CAM5-CAPT can reproduce the local L-A coupling processes to some extent due to the constrained early-morning conditions and large-scale winds. EAMv1-RRM exhibits large precipitation deficits and warm and dry biases towards mid-to-late summers, which may be an amplification through a positive L-A feedback among initial atmosphere and land states, convection triggering and large-scale circulations.

land-atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ozone response to a CO2 doubling - Results from a stratospheric circulation model with heterogeneous chemistry

A spectral 3D model of the stratosphere has been used to study the sensitivity of polar ozone with respect to a carbon dioxide increase. The lower stratospheric cooling associated with an imposed CO2 doubling may increase the probability of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and this affect ozone. The ozone perturbation obtained with the inclusion of a simple parameterization for heterogeneous chemistry on PSCs is compared to that relative to a pure homogeneous chemistry. In both cases the temperature perturbation is determined by a CO2 doubling, while the total chlorine content is kept at the present level. It is shown that the lower temperature may increase the depth and the extension of the ozone hole by extending the area amenable to PSC formation. It may be argued that this effect, coupled with an increasing amount of chlorine, may produce a positive feedback on the ozone destruction.

Pitari, G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distortions of the Rain Distribution With Warming, With and Without Self-Aggregation

We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative-convective equilibrium states in a cloud-resolving model. For a given Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20%–30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative- and surface-flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non-trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius-Clapeyron and super-Clausius-Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges. The potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However, these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self-aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics, and turbulence schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing workflows for materials characterization

Experimental science is enabled by the combination of synthesis, imaging, and functional characterization organized into evolving discovery loop. Synthesis of new material is typically followed by a set of characterization steps aiming to provide feedback for optimization or discover fundamental mechanisms. However, the sequence of synthesis and characterization methods and their interpretation, or research workflow, has traditionally been driven by human intuition and is highly domain specific. Here, we explore concepts of scientific workflows that emerge at the interface between theory, characterization, and imaging. In this study, we discuss the criteria by which these workflows can be constructed for special cases of multiresolution structural imaging and functional characterization, as a part of more general material synthesis workflows. Some considerations for theory–experiment workflows are provided. We further pose that the emergence of user facilities and cloud labs disrupts the classical progression from ideation, orchestration, and execution stages of workflow development. To accelerate this transition, we propose the framework for workflow design, including universal hyperlanguages describing laboratory operation, ontological domain matching, reward functions and their integration between domains, and policy development for workflow optimization. These tools will enable knowledge-based workflow optimization; enable lateral instrumental networks, sequential and parallel orchestration of characterization between dissimilar facilities; and empower distributed research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1994

Linking boundary-layer circulations and surface processes during FIFE89. Part 1: Observational analysis

Surface, aircraft, and satellite observations are analyzed for the 21-day 1989 intensive field campaign of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) to determine the effect of precipitation, vegetation, and soil moisture distributions on the thermal properties of the surface including the heat and moisture fluxes, and the corresponding response in the boundary-layer circulation. Mean and variance properties of the surface variables are first documented at various time and space scales. These calculations are designed to set the stage for Part 2, a modeling study that will focus on how time-space dependent rainfall distribution influences the intensity of the feedback between a vegetated surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Further analysis shows strongly demarked vegetation and soil moisture gradients extending across the FIFE experimental site that were developed and maintained by the antecedent and ongoing spatial distribution of rainfall over the region. These gradients are shown to have a pronounced influence on the thermodynamic properties of the surface. Furthermore, perturbation surface wind analysis suggests for both short-term steady-state conditions and long-term averaged conditions that the gradient pattern maintained a diurnally oscillating local direct circulation with perturbation vertical velocities of the same order as developing cumulus clouds. Dynamical and scaling considerations suggest that the embedded perturbation circulation is driven by surface heating/cooling gradients and terrain ef fects rather than the manifestation of an inertial oscillation. The implication is that at even relatively small scales (less than 30 km), the differential evolution in vegetation density and soil moisture distribution over a relatively homogenous ecotone can give rise to preferential boundary-layer circulations capable of modifying local-scale horizontal and vertical motions.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A CloudSat Perspective of the Atmospheric Water Cycle and Precipitation: Recent Progress and Grand Challenges

Summary Global - mean precipitation - is controlled by Earth's energy balance and is a quantifiable consequence of the water vapor feedback. Predictability rests on the degree to which the water vapor feedback is predictable. Regional scale - to a significant extent, changes are shaped by atmospheric circulation changes but we do not know the extent to which regional scale changes are predictable. The impacts of changes to atmospheric circulation on regional scale water cycle changes can be dramatic. Process - scale - significant biases to the CHARACTER of precipitation (frequency and intensity) is related to how the precipitation process is parameterized in models. Aerosol - We still do not know the extent to which the water cycle is influenced by aerosol but anecdotal evidence is building. The character of precipitation is affected by the way aerosol influence clouds and thus affects the forcing of the climate system through the albedo effect. Observations - we still have a way to go and need to approach the problem in a more integrated way (tie clouds, aerosol and precipitation together and then link to soil moisture, etc). Globally our capabilities seriously lag behind the science and model development.

terrestrial water cycles↗
NASA NTRS2022

Physical and Chemical Conditions in the N113 Star-Forming Region in the Low-Metallicity Large Magellanic Cloud

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) is the nearest (~50 kpc) star-forming galaxy characterized by a low metallicity (Z~0.3-0.5 Z⨀) similar to galaxies during the early phases of their assembly. As a result, star formation studies in the LMC provide a stepping stone to understanding star formation at earlier epochs of the universe where these processes cannot be directly observed. N113 is one of the most prominent star-forming regions in the LMC hosting one of the most massive giant molecular clouds.N113 is small enough to be imaged in its entirety, but large enough to showcase many important phenomena such as multiple generations of stars, stellar feedback, and different environments. We present our findings from an investigation of the early stages of star formation in the N113 region using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA)molecular line data probing a wide density range: 12CO, 13CO, and C18O (2-1), 13COand C18O (1-0), HCN (1-0), HCO+ (1-0), H13CN (1-0) and (3-2), H13CO+ (1-0) and (3-2), CS (2-1) and (5-4), as well as 1.3 mm and 3 mm continuum. We used the Python package quick clump to identify molecular clumps. We utilized the multiline non-LTE fitting tool based on models from RADEX developed by Finn et al. (2021, ApJ, 917, 106)to construct the CO, HCN, HCO+, and CS temperature and column density, and the H2density maps of N113. We constructed a catalog of molecular clumps including their physical properties, chemical abundances, sizes, velocities, and velocity dispersions. To establish the evolutionary status of the clumps, their positions were compared with previously identified young stellar objects (YSOs) from the Spitzer/SAGE and Herschel/HERITAGE surveys, as well as water and OH masers. We compared the properties of the clumps in N113 to those in the Galaxy and other regions in the LMC to assess the impact of the environment (e.g., metallicity, stellar feedback) on the star formation process.

Jonathon Noswitz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-cost Retrofit Kit for Integral Reciprocating Compressors (IRCs) to Reduce Emissions and Enhance Efficiency

Methane emissions from natural gas engines within the oil and gas industry pose a significant environmental challenge, contributing approximately 34.1 MMTCO2 eq to the total of 239 MMTCO2 eq of methane emissions in 2021, according to the EPA report. In response to this pressing issue, a collaborative effort involving the University of Oklahoma and key industry partners—WAGO Automation, Mid Continental Rental, Elipsa, and Perscient—has resulted in the development of a retrofit kit designed to reduce emissions from integral reciprocating compressors (IRCs), which are integrated compressors and engines. The retrofit kit developed comprises an Air Management System (AMS), Integrated Sensors, and a Cloud-Connected Control Unit with Graphical User Interface (GUI)/Human-Machine Interface (HMI). This solution enhances operational efficiency, reduces emissions, and expands the operational envelope of IRCs in the natural gas industry. The project successfully completed all tasks, including the installation of a full-size IRC at a designated site in Oklahoma, the development of an optimized AMS, integration of sensors, and implementation of a data acquisition system. Significant achievements include a notable reduction in CH 4 emissions, up to 84% at specific loads, and the successful deployment of the retrofit kit in diverse field conditions. The system's capabilities were enhanced through the creation of a feedback control algorithm for the AMS using a correlation matrix illustrating relationships between engine parameters, and the design of a predictive and preventive maintenance platform. The project concluded with the deployment of the entire retrofit kit to another location, confirming its effectiveness in reducing emissions and enhancing IRC performance. The comprehensive solution offers valuable benefits for IRCs, making them invaluable assets in the natural gas industry.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

remote sensing↗