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NASA NTRS2010

Methods for Estimating Environmental Effects and Constraints on NexGen: High Density Case Study

This document provides a summary of the current methods developed by Metron Aviation for the estimate of environmental effects and constraints on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This body of work incorporates many of the key elements necessary to achieve such an estimate. Each section contains the background and motivation for the technical elements of the work, a description of the methods used, and possible next steps. The current methods described in this document were selected in an attempt to provide a good balance between accuracy and fairly rapid turn around times to best advance Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) System Modeling and Analysis Division (SMAD) objectives while also supporting the needs of the JPDO Environmental Working Group (EWG). In particular this document describes methods applied to support the High Density (HD) Case Study performed during the spring of 2008. A reference day (in 2006) is modeled to describe current system capabilities while the future demand is applied to multiple alternatives to analyze system performance. The major variables in the alternatives are operational/procedural capabilities for airport, terminal, and en route airspace along with projected improvements to airframe, engine and navigational equipment.

Augustine, S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

Knox, W. Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2009

Methods for Probabilistic Fault Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Health management systems that more accurately and quickly diagnose faults that may occur in different technical systems on-board a vehicle will play a key role in the success of future NASA missions. We discuss in this paper the diagnosis of abrupt continuous (or parametric) faults within the context of probabilistic graphical models, more specifically Bayesian networks that are compiled to arithmetic circuits. This paper extends our previous research, within the same probabilistic setting, on diagnosis of abrupt discrete faults. Our approach and diagnostic algorithm ProDiagnose are domain-independent; however we use an electrical power system testbed called ADAPT as a case study. In one set of ADAPT experiments, performed as part of the 2009 Diagnostic Challenge, our system turned out to have the best performance among all competitors. In a second set of experiments, we show how we have recently further significantly improved the performance of the probabilistic model of ADAPT. While these experiments are obtained for an electrical power system testbed, we believe they can easily be transitioned to real-world systems, thus promising to increase the success of future NASA missions.

Ricks, Brian W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of the FUN3D Unstructured-Grid Navier-Stokes Solver to the 4th AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop Cases

FUN3D Navier-Stokes solutions were computed for the 4th AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop grid convergence study, downwash study, and Reynolds number study on a set of node-based mixed-element grids. All of the baseline tetrahedral grids were generated with the VGRID (developmental) advancing-layer and advancing-front grid generation software package following the gridding guidelines developed for the workshop. With maximum grid sizes exceeding 100 million nodes, the grid convergence study was particularly challenging for the node-based unstructured grid generators and flow solvers. At the time of the workshop, the super-fine grid with 105 million nodes and 600 million elements was the largest grid known to have been generated using VGRID. FUN3D Version 11.0 has a completely new pre- and post-processing paradigm that has been incorporated directly into the solver and functions entirely in a parallel, distributed memory environment. This feature allowed for practical pre-processing and solution times on the largest unstructured-grid size requested for the workshop. For the constant-lift grid convergence case, the convergence of total drag is approximately second-order on the finest three grids. The variation in total drag between the finest two grids is only 2 counts. At the finest grid levels, only small variations in wing and tail pressure distributions are seen with grid refinement. Similarly, a small wing side-of-body separation also shows little variation at the finest grid levels. Overall, the FUN3D results compare well with the structured-grid code CFL3D. The FUN3D downwash study and Reynolds number study results compare well with the range of results shown in the workshop presentations.

Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Correlated Topics in a Scalable Multidimensional Text Cube: Algorithms and Aviation Safety Case Study

As world-wide air traffic continues to grow even at a modest pace, the overall complexity of the system will increase significantly. This increased complexity can lead to a larger number of fatalities per year even if the extremely low fatality rate that we currently enjoy is maintained. One important source of information about the safety of the aviation system is in Aviation Safety Text Reports which are written by members of the flight crew, air traffic controllers, and other parties involved with the aviation system. These anonymized narrative reports contain fixed-field contextual information about the flight but also contain free-form narratives that describe, in the author s own words, the nature of the safety incident and, in many cases, the contributing factors that led to the safety incident. Several thousand such reports are filed each month, each of which is read and analyzed by highly trained experts. However, it is possible that there are emerging safety issues due to the fact that they may be reported very infrequently and in different contexts with different descriptions. The goal of this research paper is to develop correlated topic models which uncover correlations in the subspaces defined by the intersection of numerous fixed fields and discovered correlated topics. This task requires the discovery of latent topics in the text reports and the creation of a topic cube. Furthermore, because the number of potential cells in the topic cube is very large, we discuss novel methods of pruning the search space in the topic cells, thereby making the analysis feasible. We demonstrate the new algorithms on an analysis of pilot fatigue and its contributing factors, as well as the safety incidents that are correlated with this phenomenon.

Zhao, Bo↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA's First Atrial Fibrillation Case - Deke Slayton

Concerns about heart dysrhythmia have been present since the earliest days of the US manned space program. While information about an astronaut's health is general kept private, one of the original seven American astronaut's health status was played out in a very public forum. Donald "Deke" Slayton was removed from the second manned space flight when it was discovered he had idiopathic atrial fibrillation. Referencing the original medical documents, details of how this was discovered and managed from the medical perspective will be reviewed. This is NASA's first heart dysrhythmia case in an astronaut and it proves quite interesting when placed in historic perspective.

Tarver, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System for Turbofan Engines: Validation and Test Cases - Volume 3

Pratt & Whitney has developed a Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) for turbofan engines. This system computes the noise generated by turbulence impinging on the leading edges of the fan and fan exit guide vane, and noise generated by boundary-layer turbulence passing over the fan trailing edge. BFaNS has been validated on three fan rigs that were tested during the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology Program (AST). The predicted noise spectra agreed well with measured data. The predicted effects of fan speed, vane count, and vane sweep also agreed well with measurements. The noise prediction system consists of two computer programs: Setup_BFaNS and BFaNS. Setup_BFaNS converts user-specified geometry and flow-field information into a BFaNS input file. From this input file, BFaNS computes the inlet and aft broadband sound power spectra generated by the fan and FEGV. The output file from BFaNS contains the inlet, aft and total sound power spectra from each noise source. This report is the third volume of a three-volume set documenting the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System: Volume 1: Setup_BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; Volume 2: BFaNS User s Manual and Developer s Guide; and Volume 3: Validation and Test Cases. The present volume begins with an overview of the Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System, followed by validation studies that were done on three fan rigs. It concludes with recommended improvements and additional studies for BFaNS.

Morin, Bruce L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Acceleration of Magnetospheric Relativistic Electrons by Ultra-Low Frequency Waves: A Comparison between Two Cases Observed by Cluster and LANL Satellites

Understanding the origin and acceleration of magnetospheric relativistic electrons (MREs) in the Earth's radiation belt during geomagnetic storms is an important subject and yet one of outstanding questions in space physics. It has been statistically suggested that during geomagnetic storms, ultra-low-frequency (ULF) Pc-5 wave activities in the magnetosphere are correlated with order of magnitude increase of MRE fluxes in the outer radiation belt. Yet, physical and observational understandings of resonant interactions between ULF waves and MREs remain minimum. In this paper, we show two events during storms on September 25, 2001 and November 25, 2001, the solar wind speeds in both cases were > 500 km/s while Cluster observations indicate presence of strong ULF waves in the magnetosphere at noon and dusk, respectively, during a approx. 3-hour period. MRE observations by the Los Alamos (LANL) spacecraft show a quadrupling of 1.1-1.5 MeV electron fluxes in the September 25, 2001 event, but only a negligible increase in the November 2.5, 2001 event. We present a detailed comparison between these two events. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of MRE acceleration during the September 25, 2001 event can be attributed to the compressional wave mode with strong ULF wave activities and the physical origin of MRE acceleration depends more on the distribution of toroidal and poloidal ULF waves in the outer radiation belt.

Shao, X.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Case Study of Measuring Process Risk for Early Insights into Software Safety

In this case study, we examine software safety risk in three flight hardware systems in NASA's Constellation spaceflight program. We applied our Technical and Process Risk Measurement (TPRM) methodology to the Constellation hazard analysis process to quantify the technical and process risks involving software safety in the early design phase of these projects. We analyzed 154 hazard reports and collected metrics to measure the prevalence of software in hazards and the specificity of descriptions of software causes of hazardous conditions. We found that 49-70% of 154 hazardous conditions could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. The application of the TPRM methodology identified process risks in the application of the hazard analysis process itself that may lead to software safety risk.

Layman, Lucas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Combining Model-Based and Feature-Driven Diagnosis Approaches - A Case Study on Electromechanical Actuators

Model-based diagnosis typically uses analytical redundancy to compare predictions from a model against observations from the system being diagnosed. However this approach does not work very well when it is not feasible to create analytic relations describing all the observed data, e.g., for vibration data which is usually sampled at very high rates and requires very detailed finite element models to describe its behavior. In such cases, features (in time and frequency domains) that contain diagnostic information are extracted from the data. Since this is a computationally intensive process, it is not efficient to extract all the features all the time. In this paper we present an approach that combines the analytic model-based and feature-driven diagnosis approaches. The analytic approach is used to reduce the set of possible faults and then features are chosen to best distinguish among the remaining faults. We describe an implementation of this approach on the Flyable Electro-mechanical Actuator (FLEA) test bed.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Debris Disk Case Study: 49 Ceti with Herschel

Gas-poor debris disks represent a fundamentally different class of circumstellar disk than gas-rich protoplanetary disks. Their gas probably originates from the same source as the dust, i.e. planetesimal destruction, but the low gas densities make it difficult to detect. So far, Herschel has detected far-IR gas emission from one debris disk, Beta Pictoris. Here I discuss a well-known debris disk system in the GASPS survey, 49 Ceti. It serves as a case study for modeling low-density gas in optically thin disks. The dust disk appears to be spatially resolved at 70 um. Most interestingly, there appears to be a hint of ClI 158 urn emission at the roughly 2 sigma level. Preliminary modeling suggests that reconciling the sub-mm CO emission from this system with the weak or non-existent far-IR atomic lines may require an unusual chemical composition in the gas of this disk.

Roberge, Aki↗
NASA NTRS2011

Isotope Fractionation Studies in Prestellar Cores: The Case of Nitrogen

Isotopically fractionated material is found in many solar system objects, including meteorites and comets. It is considered, in some cases, to trace interstellar material that was incorporated into the solar system without undergoing significant processing, thus preserving the fractionation. In interstellar molecular clouds, ion-molecule chemistry continually cycles nitrogen between the two main reservoirs - N and N2 - leading to only minor N-15 enrichments. Charnley and Rodgers showed that depletion of CO removes oxygen from the gas and weakens this cycle such that significant N-15 fractionation can occur for N2 and other N-bearing species in such cores. Observations are being conducted at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths employing various facilities in order to both spatially and spectrally, resolve emission from these cores. A preliminary study to obtain the N-14/N-15 ratio in nitriles (HCN and HNC) was conducted at the Arizona Radio Observatory's 12m telescope on Kitt Peak, AZ. Spectra were obtained at high resolution (0.08 km/s) in order to resolve dynamic properties of each source as well as to resolve hyperfine structure present in certain isotopologues. This study included four dark cloud cores, observed to have varying levels of molecular depletion: L1521E, L1498, L1544, and L1521F. Previous studies of the N-14/N-15 ratio towards LI544 were obtained with N2H+ and NIH3, yielding ratios of 446 and >700, respectively. The discrepancy observed in these two measurements suggests a strong chemical dependence on the fractionation of nitrogen. Ratios (C,N, and D) obtained from isotopologues for a particular molecule are likely tracing the same chemical heritage and are directly comparable within a given source. Results and comparisons between the protostellar evolutionary state and isomer isotope fractionation as well as between other N-bearing species will be presented.

Milam, Stefanie N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Software Safety Risk Taxonomy for Use in Retrospective Safety Cases

Safety standards contain technical and process-oriented safely requirements. The best time to include these requirements is early in the development lifecycle of the system. When software safety requirements are levied on a legacy system after the fact, a retrospective safety case will need to be constructed for the software in the system. This can be a difficult task because there may be few to no art facts available to show compliance to the software safely requirements. The risks associated with not meeting safely requirements in a legacy safely-critical computer system must be addressed to give confidence for reuse. This paper introduces a proposal for a software safely risk taxonomy for legacy safely-critical computer systems, by specializing the Software Engineering Institute's 'Software Development Risk Taxonomy' with safely elements and attributes.

Hill, Janice L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Automated Test Case Generation for an Autopilot Requirement Prototype

Designing safety-critical automation with robust human interaction is a difficult task that is susceptible to a number of known Human-Automation Interaction (HAI) vulnerabilities. It is therefore essential to develop automated tools that provide support both in the design and rapid evaluation of such automation. The Automation Design and Evaluation Prototyping Toolset (ADEPT) enables the rapid development of an executable specification for automation behavior and user interaction. ADEPT supports a number of analysis capabilities, thus enabling the detection of HAI vulnerabilities early in the design process, when modifications are less costly. In this paper, we advocate the introduction of a new capability to model-based prototyping tools such as ADEPT. The new capability is based on symbolic execution that allows us to automatically generate quality test suites based on the system design. Symbolic execution is used to generate both user input and test oracles user input drives the testing of the system implementation, and test oracles ensure that the system behaves as designed. We present early results in the context of a component in the Autopilot system modeled in ADEPT, and discuss the challenges of test case generation in the HAI domain.

Giannakopoulou, Dimitra↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pulsed Gamma Rays from the Original Millisecond and Black Widow Pulsars: A Case for Caustic Radio Emission?

We report the detection of pulsed gamma-ray emission from the fast millisecond pulsars (MSPs) B1937+21 (also known as J1939+2134) and B1957+20 (J1959+2048) using 18 months of survey data recorded by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and timing solutions based on radio observations conducted at the Westerbork and Nancay radio telescopes. In addition, we analyzed archival RXTE and XMM-Newton X-ray data for the two MSPs, confirming the X-ray emission properties of PSR B1937+21 and finding evidence (approx. 4(sigma)) for pulsed emission from PSR B1957+20 for the first time. In both cases the gamma-ray emission profile is characterized by two peaks separated by half a rotation and are in close alignment with components observed in radio and X-rays. These two pulsars join PSRs J0034..0534 and J2214+3000 to form an emerging class of gamma-ray MSPs with phase-aligned peaks in different energy bands. The modeling of the radio and gamma-ray emission pro les suggests co-located emission regions in the outer magnetosphere.

Guillemot, L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Drought Monitoring for 3 North American Case Studies Based on the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

Both NLDAS Phase 1 (1996-2007) and Phase 2 (1979-present) datasets have been evaluated against in situ observational datasets, and NLDAS forcings and outputs are used by a wide variety of users. Drought indices and drought monitoring from NLDAS were recently examined by Mo et al. (2010) and Sheffield et al. (2010). In this poster, we will present results analyzing NLDAS Phase 2 forcings and outputs for 3 North American Case studies being analyzed as part of the NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force: (1) Western US drought (1998- 2004); (2) plains/southeast US drought (2006-2007); and (3) Current Texas-Mexico drought (2011-). We will examine percentiles of soil moisture consistent with the NLDAS drought monitor.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Test Case Baseline Results

Results of aerothermal material response calculations for the 5th Ablation Workshop Ablation Test-Case Series 2.

Risch, Tim↗