Polaron Delocalization in Donor-Acceptor Polymers and its Impact on Organic Electrochemical Transist
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The progression of electrification in the building and transportation sectors brings new opportunities for energy decarbonization. With higher dependence on the grid power supply, the variation of the grid carbon emission intensity can be utilized to reduce the carbon emissions from the two sectors. Existing coordinated control methods for buildings with distributed energy resources (DERs) either consider electricity price or renewable energy generation as the input signal, or adopt optimization in the decision-making, which is difficult to implement in the real-world environment. This paper aims to propose and validate an easy-to-deploy rule-based carbon responsive control framework that facilitates coordination between all-electric buildings and electric vehicles (EVs). The signals of the grid carbon emission intensity and the local photovoltaics (PV) generation are used for shifting the controllable loads. Extensive simulations were conducted using a model of an all-electric mixed-use community in a cold climate to validate the control performance with metrics such as emissions, energy consumption, peak demand, and EV end-of-day state-of-charge (SOC). Our study identifies that 4.5% to 27.1% of annual emission reduction can be achieved with limited impact on energy costs, peak demand, and thermal comfort. Additionally, up to 32.7% of EV emission reduction can be obtained if the EV owners reduce the target SOC by less than 21.2%.
Transient magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) events like edge localized modes (ELMs) or disruptions are a concern for magnetic confinement fusion power plants. Research with the MHD code JOREK towards understanding control of such instabilities is reviewed here in a concise way to provide a complete overview, while we refer to the original publications for details. Experimental validation for unmitigated vertical displacement events progressed. The mechanism of vertical force mitigation by impurity injection was identified. Two-way eddy current coupling to CARIDDI was completed. Shattered pellet injection was simulated in JET, KSTAR, ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and ITER. Benign runaway electron beam termination in JET and ITER was studied. Coupling of kinetic REs to the MHD is ongoing and a virtual RE synchrotron radiation diagnostic was developed. Regarding pedestal physics, regimes devoid of large ELMs in AUG were simulated and predictive JT60-SA simulations are ongoing. For ELM suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs), AUG, ITER and EAST simulations were performed. A free boundary RMP model was validated against experiments. Evidence for penetrated magnetic islands at the pedestal top based on AUG experiments and simulations was found. Simulations of the naturally ELM-free quiescent H-mode in AUG and HL-3 show external kink mode formation prevents pedestal build-up towards an ELM within windows of the edge safety factor. With kinetic neutral particles, high field side high density formation in ITER was simulated and with kinetic impurities, tungsten transport in AUG RMP plasmas was studied. To capture turbulent transport, electro-static full-f particle in cell models for ion temperature gradient and trapped electron modes were established and benchmarked. Application to RMP plasmas shows enhanced turbulence in comparison to unperturbed states. Energetic particle interactions with MHD were studied. Flux pumping that prevents the safety factor on axis from dropping below unity was simulated. First non-linear stellarator applications include current relaxation in $l$ = 2 stellarators, while verification for advanced stellarators progresses.
Resource Prospector (RP) is a NASA mission being led by NASA Ames Research Center with current plans to deliver a scientific payload package aboard a rover to the lunar surface. As part of an early risk reduction activity, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and Johnson Space Flight Center (JSC) have jointly developed a government-version concept of a lunar lander for the mission. The spacecraft consists of two parts, the lander and the rover which carries the scientific instruments. The lander holds the rover during launch, cruise, and landing on the surface. Following terminal descent and landing the lander portion of the spacecraft become dormant after the rover embarks on the science mission. The lander will be equipped with a propulsion system for lunar descent and landing, as well as trajectory correction and attitude control maneuvers during transit to the moon. Hypergolic propellants monomethyl hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide will be used to fuel sixteen 70-lbf descent thrusters and twelve 5-lbf attitude control thrusters. A total of four metal-diaphragm tanks, two per propellant, will be used along with a high-pressure composite-overwrapped pressure vessel for the helium pressurant gas. Many of the major propulsion system components are heritage missile hardware obtained by NASA from the Air Force. In parallel with the flight system design activities, a simulated propulsion system based on flight drawings was built for conducting a series of water flow tests to characterize the transient fluid flow of the propulsion system feed lines and to verify the critical operation modes such as system priming, waterhammer, and crucial mission duty cycles. The primary objective of the cold flow testing was to simulate the RP propulsion system fluid flow operation through water flow testing and to obtain data for anchoring analytical models. The models will be used to predict the transient and steady state flow behaviors in the actual flight operations. All design and build efforts, including the analytical modeling, have been performed. The cold flow testing of the propulsion system was set up and conducted at a NASA MSFC test facility. All testing was completed in the summer of 2014, and this paper documents the results of that testing and the associated fluid system modeling efforts.
The Orion European Service Module Structural Test Article (E-STA) Acoustic Test was completed in May 2016 to verify that the European Service Module (ESM) can withstand qualification acoustic environments. The test article required an aft closeout to simulate the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Stage Adapter (MSA) cavity, however, the flight MSA design was too cost-prohibitive to build. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) had 6 months to design an MSA Simulator that could recreate the qualification prediction MSA cavity sound pressure level to within a reasonable tolerance. This paper summarizes the design and analysis process to arrive at a design for the MSA Simulator, and then compares its performance to the final prediction models created prior to test.
This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.
Fractional free volume (FFV) characterizes the microstructural level features of polymers and affects their properties including thermal, mechanical, and separation performance. Experimental measurements and theoretical analyses have been used to quantify the FFV of polymers, but challenges remain because of their limitations. Experimental measurements are laborious and based on semi empirical equations, while Bondi’s group contribution theory involves ambiguities like the determination of van der Waals volume and the choice of factor values in the theoretical equation. To efficiently evaluate the FFV of polymers, this study utilizes high-throughput molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to build a large dataset regarding polymer’s FFV. Based on this large dataset, we further build machine learning (ML) models to establish the composition-structure relation. Inspired by group contribution theory which correlates polymer’s functional groups to FFV, our ML models correlate polymer’s substructures or physico-chemical indexes to FFV. Here, our study first benchmarks the MD simulation protocol to obtain reliable FFV of polymers and then carries out high-throughput MD simulations for more than 6,500 homopolymers and 1,400 polyamides. Such a large and diverse dataset makes the well-trained ML models more generalizable, compared with the group contribution theory. The efficiency of a feed forward neural network model is further demonstrated by applying it to a hypothetical polyimide dataset of more than 8 million chemical structures. The predicted FFVs of hypothetical polyimides are further validated by MD simulations. The obtained FFVs of the 8 million polymers, plus their previously reported gas separation performances, demonstrate the promising capability of ML virtual screening for the discovery of polymer membranes with exceptional permeability/selectivity.
While NASA’s Mars rover Perseverance continues to make groundbreaking achievements on the Red Planet, its twin is hard at work here on Earth. The Operational Perseverance Twin for the Integration of Mechanisms and Instruments Sent to Mars, or OPTIMISM, is the Mars 2020 Vehicle System Testbed (VSTB) rover operated by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. OPTIMISM’s home is the JPL Mars Yard; an outdoor field with red soil that simulates the terrain encountered by Perseverance. The VSTB is a full-scale engineering model of the flight rover, serving a number of functions to ensure mission operations can continue smoothly and on schedule. The VSTB possesses instrumentation, computers, mechanisms, cameras, and a Mobility subsystem that are nearly identical to its extraterrestrial twin. Its high fidelity allows the rover to be a highly effective tool to fully test system functionality and performance prior to commanding the flight rover. The early stages of building OPTIMISM began a few months prior to Perseverance departing JPL for Cape Canaveral, FL in early 2020. Electrical integration of the flight system avionics, and compatibility checkouts of the electrical ground support equipment ensured that the foundation of the electrical system was operational and in place. Next, the internal harnessing was installed and compatibility checks of the rover instrumentation and mechanisms were performed to confirm the system was prepared for full buildup. Finally, mechanical assembly of the rover chassis with its external components completed the integration of the system before it was moved to the Mars Yard for its initial phase of testing to perform verification & validation (V&V) of the Mobility subsystem requirements. By the time Perseverance landed at Jezero Crater in February 2021, the first phase of VSTB operations was underway. Surface guidance, navigation, and control (SGNC) testing for the Mobility subsystem ensured functionality and performance requirements were met for various capabilities such as visual odometry (VO), mapping, and automatic navigation (AutoNav). Subsequent integration of the robotic arm (RA) onto the VSTB enabled the V&V campaign for surface sampling operations (SSO) to commence. As the mission’s engineering operations (EO) have gotten underway, the VSTB has been utilized for an array of purposes including troubleshooting software anomalies, and performing dry-runs for first time activities (FTAs) prior to sending the commands to Perseverance. OPTIMISM will continue to serve mission critical functions as long as Perseverance is roving the Red Planet.
The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) software developed at Ames Research Center uses artificial intelligence and data mining techniques to build system-monitoring knowledge bases from archived or simulated sensor data. This information is then used to detect unusual or anomalous behavior that may indicate an impending system failure. Currently helping analyze data from systems that help fly and maintain the space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS), the IMS has also been employed by data classes are then used to build a monitoring knowledge base. In real time, IMS performs monitoring functions: determining and displaying the degree of deviation from nominal performance. IMS trend analyses can detect conditions that may indicate a failure or required system maintenance. The development of IMS was motivated by the difficulty of producing detailed diagnostic models of some system components due to complexity or unavailability of design information. Successful applications have ranged from real-time monitoring of aircraft engine and control systems to anomaly detection in space shuttle and ISS data. IMS was used on shuttle missions STS-121, STS-115, and STS-116 to search the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) data for signs of possible damaging impacts during launch. It independently verified findings of the WLEIDS Mission Evaluation Room (MER) analysts and indicated additional points of interest that were subsequently investigated by the MER team. In support of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, IMS is being deployed as an anomaly detection tool on ISS mission control consoles in the Johnson Space Center Mission Operations Directorate. IMS has been trained to detect faults in the ISS Control Moment Gyroscope (CMG) systems. In laboratory tests, it has already detected several minor anomalies in real-time CMG data. When tested on archived data, IMS was able to detect precursors of the CMG1 failure nearly 15 hours in advance of the actual failure event. In the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, IMS successfully performed real-time engine health analysis. IMS was able to detect simulated failures and actual engine anomalies in an F/A-18 aircraft during the course of 25 test flights. IMS is also being used in colla
The rapid progression in artificial intelligence has facilitated the emergence of large language models like ChatGPT, offering potential applications extending into specialized engineering modeling, especially physics-based building energy modeling. This paper investigates the innovative integration of large language models with building energy modeling software, focusing specifically on the fusion of ChatGPT with EnergyPlus. A literature review is first conducted to reveal a growing trend of incorporating large language models in engineering modeling, albeit limited research on their application in building energy modeling. We underscore the potential of large language models in addressing building energy modeling challenges and outline potential applications including simulation input generation, simulation output analysis and visualization, conducting error analysis, co-simulation, simulation knowledge extraction and training, and simulation optimization. Three case studies reveal the transformative potential of large language models in automating and optimizing building energy modeling tasks, underscoring the pivotal role of artificial intelligence in advancing sustainable building practices and energy efficiency. The case studies demonstrate that selecting the right large language model techniques is essential to enhance performance and reduce engineering efforts. The findings advocate a multidisciplinary approach in future artificial intelligence research, with implications extending beyond building energy modeling to other specialized engineering modeling.
ABSTRACT We present a cosmic density field reconstruction method that augments the traditional reconstruction algorithms with a convolutional neural network (CNN). Following previous work, the key component of our method is to use the reconstructed density field as the input to the neural network. We extend this previous work by exploring how the performance of these reconstruction ideas depends on the input reconstruction algorithm, the reconstruction parameters, and the shot noise of the density field, as well as the robustness of the method. We build an eight-layer CNN and train the network with reconstructed density fields computed from the Quijote suite of simulations. The reconstructed density fields are generated by both the standard algorithm and a new iterative algorithm. In real space at z = 0, we find that the reconstructed field is 90 per cent correlated with the true initial density out to $k\sim 0.5 \, \mathrm{ h}\, \rm {Mpc}^{-1}$, a significant improvement over $k\sim 0.2 \, \mathrm{ h}\, \rm {Mpc}^{-1}$ achieved by the input reconstruction algorithms. We find similar improvements in redshift space, including an improved removal of redshift space distortions at small scales. We also find that the method is robust across changes in cosmology. Additionally, the CNN removes much of the variance from the choice of different reconstruction algorithms and reconstruction parameters. However, the effectiveness decreases with increasing shot noise, suggesting that such an approach is best suited to high density samples. This work highlights the additional information in the density field beyond linear scales as well as the power of complementing traditional analysis approaches with machine learning techniques.
This report describes improvements made to the solid mechanics formulation in the MOOSE open source finite element simulation environment and the open source Nuclear Engineering Material model Library (NEML) for mechanical constitutive models. The focus of these improvements is to improve the usability and performance of simulations involving one or both pieces of software. Specifically, this work completes a new system for solid mechanics simulations in the MOOSE ecosystem providing exact linearizations and optimal (quadratic) convergence, for a variety of coordinate systems and material types, including large deformation simulations. This work then provides users a framework to build highly efficient mechanical simulations of structures or materials or to couple in additional MOOSE physics modules to build complex, scalable multiphysics simulations.
The polar layered deposits are thought to contain alternate layers of water and dust in different proportions resulting from the astronomical forcing of the martian climate. In particular, longterm variations in the orbital and axial elements of Mars are presumed to generate variations of the latitudes of surface water ice stability and of the amount of water exchanged in the polar areas. At high obliquity, simplified climate models and independent general circulation simulations suggest a transfer of water ice from the north polar region to tropical areas, whereas at lower and present obliquities, water ice is expected to be stable only at the poles. If so, over obliquity cycles, water ice may be redistributed between the surface water reservoirs leading to their incremental building or disintegration depending on the rates of water transfer. If only a relative limited amount of the available water is exchanged on orbital timescales, this may provide an efficient mechanism for the formation of the observed polar deposits. Within this context, GCM simulations of the martian water cycle have been performed for various obliquities ranging from 15 degrees to 45 degrees and for a large set of initial water ice locations to determine the rate of water exchange between the surface water reservoirs as a function of the obliquity. Propagating these rates over the last 10 Ma orbital history gives a possible recent evolution of these reservoirs.
As autonomous Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) become more prevalent, improvements in airworthiness assessments, data security, establishing vehicle trust, and more will become necessary to make fleet operations of these systems routine. Currently, these are verified for every UAS vehicle through a time-intensive manual inspection performed by human individuals. This process becomes infeasible when introduced into large-scale operations, so the Fit2Fly project is attempting to address these concerns. Fit2Fly is a multi-year project with a large scope, so we chose to narrow our focus to building a proof-of-concept feasibility simulation in tandem with physical UAS demonstration. This work resulted in a software simulation capable of running asynchronous commercial operations with persistent data modeling in coordination with several autonomous drones using integrated radio and GPS configurations.
The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.
The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).
The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.
The expansion of commercial building demand response as a demand-side management resource for the electric grid necessitates new decision support resources for customers seeking to assess the benefit–risk tradeoffs of possible strategies for energy flexible building operations. To address this need, we, in this study, develop surrogate models that predict the impacts of several load flexibility strategies on commercial building electricity demand and indoor temperature, focusing on offices and retail buildings at multiple scales. The surrogate models are fit to a synthetic database generated via whole building simulations, which establish the relationships between the key operational features of a given strategy and potential changes in building demand and temperature across a variety of contexts. The surrogate models are translated to a Bayesian framework to allow straightforward communication of uncertainty and parameter updating given new evidence. We find strong predictive performance across the suite of models, underscoring the usefulness of the approach in guiding decisions about implementing load flexibility strategies under a particular set of operational and environmental conditions.