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At least 739 records · Page 41

Computing neutrino cross sections from Euclidian responses

Energy integrated neutrino cross sections are integrals of nuclear responses weighted with kinematic prefactors. We decompose the prefactors into a limited set of functions of energy transfer and show the relevant integrals are the moments of the responses, and integrals weighted with $1/(a+ω)^n$ with $n\leq 2$. These can be directly obtained from the Euclidean response, avoiding the need for inversion of the Laplace transform. As a proof of concept we study the procedure with toy-model responses for the quasielastic peak. We show that the different contributions can be straightforwardly organized in terms of relative importance, and how flux-averaged cross sections can be obtained. Using a realistic model for the response and numerical uncertainty we show that it is feasible to obtain the required integrals from the Euclidean response, with large uncertainties only for the third moment. Due to kinematic restrictions, the integrals contain contributions from the unphysical region for neutrino scattering, coming from high-momentum nucleons. We show that (in the absence of two-body currents) robust corrections for this contamination are obtained from the single-nucleon momentum distribution. These results present an opportunity to compute certain neutrino cross sections with ab-initio methods with controlled uncertainties.

Nikolakopoulos, A. [Washington U., Seattle]↗

A filter-dependent granular temperature model from large-scale CFD-DEM data

The computational study of strongly-coupled, gas–solid flows at scales relevant to most environmental and engineering applications requires the use of ‘coarse-grained’ methodologies such as the two-fluid model, particle-in-cell approach or the multiphase Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations. While these strategies enable computations at desirable length- and time-scales, they rely heavily on models to capture important flow physics that occur at scales smaller than the mesh. To date, the models that do exist are based on a limited set of flow conditions, such as very dilute particle phase. To this end, we leverage a large-scale repository of CFD-DEM data to develop filter-size dependent models for the mean variance in particle volume fraction, a quantity commonly used to assess the degree of clustering, and the granular temperature, a key quantity for accurately predicting gas–solid flows. In conclusion, because of its filter-size dependence, the granular temperature model can be directly translated to coarse-grained approaches and tied directly to grid size.

AMReX↗

Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches

Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Hydrology↗

Diffstar: a fully parametric physical model for galaxy assembly history

We present Diffstar, a smooth parametric model for the in situ star formation history (SFH) of galaxies. The Diffstar model is distinct from traditional SFH models because it is parametrized directly in terms of basic features of galaxy formation physics. Diffstar includes ingredients for: the halo mass assembly history; the accretion of gas into the dark matter halo; the fraction of gas that is eventually transformed into stars, ϵ ms ; the time-scale over which this transformation occurs, τ cons ; and the possibility that some galaxies will experience a quenching event at time t q , and may subsequently experience rejuvenated star formation. We show that our model is sufficiently flexible to describe the average stellar mass histories of galaxies in both the IllustrisTNG (TNG) and UniverseMachine (UM) simulations with an accuracy of ~0.1 dex across most of cosmic time. We use Diffstar to compare TNG to UM in common physical terms, finding that: (i) star formation in UM is less efficient and burstier relative to TNG; (ii) UM galaxies have longer gas consumption time-scales, relative to TNG; (iii) rejuvenated star formation is ubiquitous in UM, whereas quenched TNG galaxies rarely experience sustained rejuvenation; and (iv) in both simulations, the distributions of ϵ ms , τ cons , and t q share a common characteristic dependence upon halo mass, and present significant correlations with halo assembly history. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how Diffstar can be used in future applications to fit the SEDs of individual observed galaxies, as well as in forward-modelling applications that populate cosmological simulations with synthetic galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Data-Informed Synthetic Networks of Water Distribution Systems for Resilience Analysis in Puerto Rico

The increasing potential of infrastructure disruptions calls for high-quality infrastructure models to be used in resilience analysis and decision making. Unfortunately, many utilities and communities do not have access to accurate and detailed models due to a lack of data and resources. Furthermore, security restrictions on sharing infrastructure models present roadblocks to research, analysis, and decision making. Recent advances in the development of synthetic water distribution models provide a potential solution to this problem. There is an opportunity to improve these methods by leveraging incomplete pipe datasets to aid synthetic network generation. To address this gap, we developed a methodology for synthetic network generation that incorporates partial pipe data using a modification of the minimum cost flow algorithm for network generation and pipe sizing. This methodology demonstrates how partial pipe data can be leveraged to improve site-specific synthetic network generation. For the study area of Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, a synthetic model generated using 50% of real pipe data matches the pressure of the validation system with an average error of 23.5 m of head, which improves upon the average error of 31.6 m of head produced by a synthetic model generated using no data of the real pipes. Additionally, synthetic networks are shown to replicate the pressure response under a disruption scenario of the validation network, suggesting potential use in resilience analysis.

resilience analysis↗

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗

Simple Autoignition Model for the Derived Cetane Number of Oxygenated Compounds and Fuel Blends

A four-step autoignition model was used to derive an expression for the ignition delay and derived cetane number (DCN) measured by ignition quality testers (IQT) for oxygenated compounds and blends as a function of each compound’s global initiation and net chain branching rate constants. Expressions for these values were determined assuming they could be related to the functional groups present in a compound. Measurements for 124 compounds and 94 binary and ternary blends, gathered from the literature and performed at UW-Madison, were used to obtain the dependence of the measured ignition delay on each functional group. The new model was able to describe the ignition behavior of both the compounds and blends, with an average DCN error of 5.0 (22%) and 3.5 (15%), respectively. Additionally, the blend model was transformed into a mixing rule by incorporating existing IQT ignition delay data for each compound. Use of the mixing rule was found to offer improvements over the full prediction, with an average DCN error of 3.2 (14%).

Witkowski, Dustin↗

Locally narrow droplet size distributions are ubiquitous in stratocumulus clouds

Marine stratocumulus clouds are the “global reflectors,” sharply contrasting with the underlying dark ocean surface and exerting a net cooling on Earth’s climate. The magnitude of this cooling remains uncertain in part owing to the averaged representation of microphysical processes, such as the droplet-to-drizzle transition in global climate models (GCMs). Current GCMs parameterize cloud droplet size distributions as broad, cloud-averaged gammas. Here, using digital holographic measurements of discrete stratocumulus cloud volumes, we found cloud droplet size distributions to be narrower at the centimeter scale, never resembling the cloud average. These local distributions tended to form pockets of similar-looking cloud regions, each characterized by a size distribution shape that is diluted to varying degrees. These observations open the way for new modeling representations of microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resampling and data augmentation for short-term PV output prediction based on an imbalanced sky images dataset using convolutional neural networks

Integrating photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by potentially large fluctuations in power generation. In recent years, sky image-based PV output prediction using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has emerged as a promising approach to forecasting fluctuations. A key challenge is imbalanced sky image datasets: because of the geography of solar PV system installations, sky image datasets are often rich in sunny condition data but deficient in cloudy condition data. This imbalance contrasts with the fact that model errors are dominated by cloudy condition performance. In this study, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the enrichment and augmentation of an imbalanced sky images dataset for two PV output prediction tasks: nowcasting (predicting concurrent PV output) and forecasting (predicting 15-minute-ahead future PV output). We empirically examine the efficacy of using different resampling and data augmentation approaches to create a rebalanced dataset for model development. A three-stage greedy search is used to determine the optimal resampling approach, data augmentation techniques and over-sampling rate. The results show that for the nowcast problem, resampling and data augmentation can effectively enhance the model performance, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) by an average of 4%, or a 15 std. (standard deviation) of improvement compared to the variability of the baseline model. In contrast, the treatment RMSE for the forecast problem nearly always overlaps the baseline performance at the ± 2 std. level. The optimal resampling approach expands on the original dataset by over-sampling the minority cloudy data, with the best results from large over-sampling rate (e.g., 4 ~ 6 times over-sampling of cloudy images).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DC Cryogenic Modeling of Open-Source SkyWater 130 nm MOSFETs at 77 K Using BSIM4

Cryogenic applications in high-energy physics (HEP) demand reliable, low-power CMOS electronics capable of operating at liquid nitrogen temperatures (77 K). The open-source SkyWater 130nm (SKY130) CMOS process has previously been shown to operate at temperatures as low as 4 K making it a promising candidate for HEP applications. In this work, we characterize and model SKY130 low-threshold voltage transistors at 77 K, which is a temperature commonly used in modeling applications for liquid argon detectors. DC characteristic measurements were performed at both room temperature and liquid nitrogen temperature. We created a cryogenic modeling approach to produce a SPICE-compatible, isothermal BSIM4-based model for select transistor sizes at 77 K. The resulting model agrees with data at 77 K with an average error on the order of 20% (relative RMS) and shows no dependence on drain voltage. Due to the open-source nature of SKY130, we have made our models publicly available on Github. We hope this work will continue the trend for democratizing circuit design at cryogenic temperatures in high-energy physics by enabling open access to accurate cryogenic CMOS device models at 77 K.

Beall, F. [Texas U., Arlington]↗

Linking human-building interactions in shared offices with personality traits

Occupant behavior influences office building energy performance. The level of human-building interactions (HBIs) in shared offices strongly influences building energy use and occupant well-being. This study explored the link between occupant personality types and their behaviors of sharing energy and environment control systems and interactions with their colleagues. Inspired by the Five-Factor Model (FFM), we classified HBI behaviors into four dimensions: willingness to share control, knowledge of control, group decision behavior, and adaptive strategies. These four variables can be mapped to the four personality traits proposed by the FFM: agreeableness, openness, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Our cluster analysis identified six behavioral patterns: average (17.7%), reserved (15.3%), environmentally friendly (16.6%), role model (24.2%), self-centered (17.2%), and mechanist (9.0%). We further applied association rules, a widely utilized machine learning technique, to discover how demographics, building-related contextual factors, and perception-attitudinal factors influence HBI behaviors. Country, control feature accessibility, and group dynamics were found to be the three most influential factors that determine occupants’ HBI behaviors. Finally, the study provides insights about building design and operation, as well as policy to promote socially and environmentally desirable HBI behaviors in a shared office environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High- and Mid-Fidelity Modeling Comparison for a Floating Marine Turbine System: Preprint

There is a lack of suitable numerical tools, particularly open-source tools, that can be used for designing and optimizing marine turbine systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has added features to their widely used mid-fidelity wind turbine modeling code, OpenFAST, to enable modeling of axial flow marine turbines. This necessitated the addition of several physical effects relevant to marine turbines that can be neglected for wind turbines. These include buoyant loads, added mass and inertia loads, wave-current superposition, and changes to the coordinate systems. This updated version of OpenFAST allows for the modeling of both fixed and floating marine turbine systems at a speed comparable to real time. While efficient for long simulations, large sets of load cases, and design studies, mid-fidelity codes cannot capture all of the potentially important physical phenomenon impacting marine turbine systems. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can capture more flow effects with fewer assumptions and provide detailed body pressure mapping and flow-field information. It is important to compare predictions between mid-fidelity and high-fidelity codes, both to verify the models and to understand the limitations. A floating marine turbine system designed by NREL was modeled both with OpenFAST and with the commercial CFD code, STARCCM+. The CFD model used a 3-D unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver for a volume-of-fluid numerical wave and current tank. The blade-resolved simulations used the sliding-interface technique for the spinning rotor and an overset grid to accommodate the rigid-body motion of the floating system. The mooring system was modelled with a custom coupling of the CFD solver with the open-source code, MoorDyn. This improves upon the existing quasi-static catenary solver in STARCCM+, which lacks seabed contact or line-to-line connections. Spatial and temporal convergence studies were conducted. The simulation results for a combined current and wave condition are compared between OpenFAST and CFD, highlighting the capabilities of the mid-fidelity code and identifying the areas where a high-fidelity approach is needed.

CFD↗

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Posterior comparison of model dynamics in several hybrid turbulence model forms

Hybrid turbulence models that can accurately reproduce unsteady three-dimensional flow physics across the entire range of grid scales and turbulence dynamics from Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS), through large-eddy simulation (LES), down to direct numerical simulations (DNS) are of increasing interest to the turbulence modeling community. However, despite decades of research and development, the basic tasks of eliminating poor-performing hybrid RANS-LES models and accelerating adoption of superior models through well-designed validation and verification have yet to occur. As a step in this direction, in this work we evaluate thirteen different hybrid RANS-LES models via systematic grid refinement of decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. We further derive a novel mathematical framework for assessing the energy partitioning dynamics of each Hybrid RANS-LES model, wherein model-to-model variations in energy partitioning can be interpreted as different feedback mechanisms operating on a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system. We found that model forms similar to the flow simulation methodology—also often termed very-large eddy simulation—are dynamically inconsistent with DNS at all resolutions. Additionally, we found a strong dynamical similarity in the feedback mechanisms of all models related to detached eddy simulation and partially averaged Navier–Stokes that is inherent to their general model forms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Abundance of Major Cell Wall Components in Natural Variants and Pedigrees of Populus trichocarpa

The rapid analysis of biopolymers including lignin and sugars in lignocellulosic biomass cell walls is essential for the analysis of the large sample populations needed for identifying heritable genetic variation in biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. In this study, we reported the analysis of cell wall lignin content, syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio, as well as glucose and xylose content by high-throughput pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) for >3,600 samples derived from hundreds of accessions of Populus trichocarpa from natural populations, as well as pedigrees constructed from 14 parents (7 × 7). Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression models were built from the samples of known sugar composition previously determined by hydrolysis followed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analysis. Key spectral features positively correlated with glucose content consisted of m/z 126, 98, and 69, among others, deriving from pyrolyzates such as hydroxymethylfurfural, maltol, and other sugar-derived species. Xylose content positively correlated primarily with many lignin-derived ions and to a lesser degree with m/z 114, deriving from a lactone produced from xylose pyrolysis. Models were capable of predicting glucose and xylose contents with an average error of less than 4%, and accuracy was significantly improved over previously used methods. The differences in the models constructed from the two sample sets varied in training sample number, but the genetic and compositional uniformity of the pedigree set could be a potential driver in the slightly better performance of that model in comparison with the natural variants. Broad-sense heritability of glucose and xylose composition using these data was 0.32 and 0.34, respectively. In summary, we have demonstrated the use of a single high-throughput method to predict sugar and lignin composition in thousands of poplar samples to estimate the heritability and phenotypic plasticity of traits necessary to develop optimized feedstocks for bioenergy applications.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ion Transport in Concentrated Crosslinked Solid Polymer Electrolytes

Crosslinking polymers is a common approach to create mechanically stable solid materials such as polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries. In conventional liquid electrolytes, the solvent molecules move freely to accommodate the field-induced motion of ions. However, in crosslinked polymer electrolytes, the rearrangement of polymer segments is constrained by the deformation limits of the network. Herein, we develop a new transport model that accounts for both the formation of concentration gradients and the elasticity of the electrolyte. The elasticity is incorporated by adding an additional term related to the entropy of crosslinked strands to the electrochemical potential of the salt. The resulting Crosslink Model contains two adjustable parameters: $\mathcal{N}$, the average number of monomers in a strand, and λ crit , the maximum strain the network can sustain. These solid-like constraints produce singularities in the governing transport equations, fundamentally altering the concentration profiles. Plateaus in salt concentrations emerge near the electrodes, and network elasticity introduces a strain overpotential. When compared to a Baseline Model ($\mathcal{N}$ → ∞, equivalent to concentrated solution theory), which predicts steepest gradients near the electrodes, both models yield similar current–voltage relationships. Model predictions are compared to electrochemical data for a poly(ethylene oxide)-based crosslinked polymer electrolyte.

Patel, Vivaan [University of California, Berkeley,↗