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DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

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DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of External Hazards at Radioactive Waste and Used Fuel Management Facilities - 13505

One of the key lessons from the Fukushima accident is the importance of having a comprehensive identification and evaluation of risks posed by external events to nuclear facilities. While the primary focus has been on nuclear power plants, the Canadian nuclear industry has also been updating hazard assessments for radioactive waste and used fuel management facilities to ensure that lessons learnt from Fukushima are addressed. External events are events that originate either physically outside the nuclear site or outside its control. They include natural events, such as high winds, lightning, earthquakes or flood due to extreme rainfall. The approaches that have been applied to the identification and assessment of external hazards in Canada are presented and analyzed. Specific aspects and considerations concerning hazards posed to radioactive waste and used fuel management operations are identified. Relevant hazard identification techniques are described, which draw upon available regulatory guidance and standard assessment techniques such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOPs) and 'What-if' analysis. Consideration is given to ensuring that hazard combinations (for example: high winds and flooding due to rainfall) are properly taken into account. Approaches that can be used to screen out external hazards, through a combination of frequency and impact assessments, are summarized. For those hazards that cannot be screened out, a brief overview of methods that can be used to conduct more detailed hazard assessments is also provided. The lessons learnt from the Fukushima accident have had a significant impact on specific aspects of the approaches used to hazard assessment for waste management. Practical examples of the effect of these impacts are provided. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2012

F-Tank Farm Performance Assessment Updates through the Special Analysis Process at Savannah River Site - 12169

The F-Area Tank Farm (FTF) is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy and operated by Savannah River Remediation, LLC (SRR), Liquid Waste Operations contractor at DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS). The FTF is in the north-central portion of the SRS and occupies approximately 22 acres within F-Area. The FTF is an active radioactive waste storage facility consisting of 22 carbon steel waste tanks and ancillary equipment such as transfer lines, evaporators and pump tanks. An FTF Performance Assessment (PA) was prepared to support the eventual closure of the FTF underground radioactive waste tanks and ancillary equipment. The PA provides the technical basis and results to be used in subsequent documents to demonstrate compliance with the pertinent requirements identified below for final closure of FTF. The FTank Farm is subject to a state industrial waste water permit and Federal Facility Agreement. Closure documentation will include an F-Tank Farm Closure Plan and tank-specific closure modules utilizing information from the performance assessment. For this reason, the State of South Carolina and the Environmental Protection Agency must be involved in the performance assessment review process. The residual material remaining after tank cleaning is also subject to reclassification prior to closure via a waste determination pursuant to Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2005. The projected waste tank inventories in the FTF PA provide reasonably bounding FTF inventory projections while taking into account uncertainties in the effectiveness of future tank cleaning technologies. As waste is removed from the FTF waste tanks, the residual contaminants will be sampled and the remaining residual inventory is characterized. In this manner, tank specific data for the tank inventories at closure will be available to supplement the waste tank inventory projections currently used in the FTF PA. For FTF, the new tank specific data will be evaluated through the Special Analysis process. The FTF Special Analyses process will be utilized to evaluate information regarding the final residual waste that will be grouted in place in the FTF Tanks and assess the potential impact the new inventory information has on the FTF PA assumptions and results. The Special Analysis can then be used to inform decisions regarding FTF tank closure documents. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the Special Analysis process and share insights gained while implementing this process. An example of an area of interest in the revision process is balancing continuous improvement versus configuration control of agreed upon methodologies. Other subjects to be covered include: 1) defining the scope of the revisions included in the Special Analysis, 2) determining which PA results should be addressed in the Special Analysis, and 3) deciding whether the Special Analysis should utilize more qualitative or quantitative assessments. For the SRS FTF, an FTF PA has been prepared to provide the technical basis and results to be used in subsequent documents to demonstrate compliance with the pertinent requirements for final closure of FTF. The FTF Special Analyses process will be utilized to evaluate the impact new information has on the FTF PA assumptions and results. The Special Analysis can then be used to inform decisions regarding FTF tank closure documents. In preparing SAs, it is crucial that the scope of the SA be well defined within the SA, since the specific scope will vary from SA to SA. Since the SAs are essentially addendums to the PA, the SA scope should utilize the PA as the baseline from which the SA scope is defined. The SA needs to focus on evaluating the change associated with the scope, and not let other changes interfere with the ability to perform that evaluation by masking the impact of the change. In preparing the SA, it is also important to let the scope determine whether the Special Analysis should utilize more qualitative or quantitative assessments and also which results from the PA should be addressed in the Special Analysis. These decisions can vary from SA and should not be predetermined. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhancing performance assessments using the ASCEM tool-set - 15222

The Office of Soil and Groundwater Remediation within the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (EM) is supporting development of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM). ASCEM is an open source and modular computing framework that incorporates new advances and tools for predicting contaminant fate and transport in natural and engineered systems. ASCEM integrates modeling tools into a common work-flow that facilitates integrated approaches to modeling and site characterization, and enables robust and standardized assessments of performance and risk for EM cleanup and closure activities. The ASCEM project includes collaboration with end users engaged in performance assessments and subsurface simulation. Two working groups are engaged in performance assessment activities at the Hanford Site and Savannah River Site (SRS). The Hanford Site working group is focused on evaluating an alternative conceptual model that includes fine-scale heterogeneities. The baseline conceptual model for the performance assessment includes the large-scale stratigraphy at the site. The working group is applying the ASCEM tool-set to develop and evaluate alternative conceptual models and evaluate the effect of heterogeneities on long-term transport under rainfall-driven conditions. Because the heterogeneous models require long compute times due to increased model complexity, the simulations are implemented on a high-performance computing platform to reduce simulation times. The ASCEM Akuna work-flow enables efficient organization, simulation execution, and processing and visualization of results. Current performance assessments for waste tank closure at the SRS are limited to two-dimensional axi-symmetric representations. The SRS working group is collaborating with the site contractor to address technical review issues by resolving fine-scale tank features and simulating three-dimensional flow with Richards equation for selected closure scenarios using the ASCEM simulator, Amanzi. The Akuna tool-set is being applied to support model setup, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and visualization. Both of the ASCEM working groups are addressing issues that cannot readily be evaluated with the existing tools. In these efforts, ASCEM is being used to provide technical underpinnings for ongoing performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Overview of IAEA MODARIA II Program Working Group 1 on Assessment and Decision Making of Existing Exposure Situations for NORM and Nuclear Legacy Sites - 18308

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) launched the Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Programme in October. As part of the IAEA effort to enhance the capabilities of its Member States in assessing radiological impacts of radionuclides released to the environment from sites that were not operated in accordance with current standards, and to ensure protection of the public and the environment, the MODARIA II Programme aims to: (1) test the performance of models developed for predicting the transfer of radionuclides in the environment and assessing radiological impacts to the public and the environment; (2) develop and improve models for particular environments and, where appropriate, to agree on data sets that are generally applicable for use in testing environmental transfer models; and (3) provide an international forum for the exchange of experiences, ideas and research information. The Programme will run for 3 years from 2016 to 2019. The Programme comprises seven working groups covering a wide range of topics (https://wwwns.iaea.org/projects/modaria/modaria2.asp?s=8 and l=129). MODARIA II Working Group 1 (WG1) is focused on dose assessment and decision making regarding existing exposure situations due to naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and nuclear legacy sites. WG1 was formed as a combination of two MODARIA I WGs: WG1 focused on application of decision-aiding tools in remediation; and WG3 focused on risk assessment for NORM and radioactively contaminated legacy sites (https://wwwns.iaea.org/projects/modaria/default.asp?s=8 and l=129). It was recognized that the decision-making needs will inform the scope of risk assessments, and the risk insights and structured decision analyses will aid in informed decision-making. Therefore, MODARIA II WG1 is focused on developing methods and toolsets for risk-informed decision-making for NORM and nuclear legacy sites, including demonstration of decision-making processes and tools through case studies. MODARIA II WG1 has 91 registered participants from 33 Member States and IAEA (as of November 2017), some 30 of whom are actively engaged in various collaborative research and development activities within WG1. Members of WG1 participated in the First Technical Meeting of MODARIA II, which was held in Vienna, Austria from 31 October to 4 November 2016. The group then held its First Interim Meeting in Brussels, Belgium from 26 to 30 June 2017, which included a field trip to the legacy Tessenderlo Chemie (TCH) Phosphate Processing Site. At this meeting, the TCH Site and the Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant (PChP) in Ukraine were selected for case studies. The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Material Disposal Area B in the USA and the Beaverlodge Uranium Mill and Mill Site in northern Canada were selected as examples for sharing of good practices and lessons learned in risk-informed decision-making for environmental remediation and land conveyance. At the Second Technical Meeting held in Vienna on 30 October to 3 November 2017, an additional NORM site for tin processing in Brazil was added to the case studies, with another NORM site in Yunnan, China included for consideration at the Second Interim Meeting of WG1. The Second Interim Meeting will be held in in early to mid-May, 2018. The group has also decided to prepare an Interim Report by October 2018 to document the WG1 discussions and analyses for the period of 2016-2018, which will be finalized at the conclusion of MODARIA II in October 2019. Initial assignments have been discussed for IM1 participants to collect data, conduct modelling and analyses, and prepare draft sections for the Interim Report. This paper will provide an overview of the work plans for WG1. It will also highlight some near-term activities that the group is currently working on. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

MY EXES and EDM for Automated Remediation Data Quality Assessments - 19053

MY Electronic data exchange and Evaluation System (EXES) is a new web-based technology providing external admin access and full control to the Web-based EXES tool developed by GD for EPA for automated environmental remediation data quality assessments. EXES replaces most manual assessment processes, reducing remediation data review time and costs and ensuring that data are of known and documented quality. This tool is available from EPA to federal agencies and remediation firms and has successfully been used to support over 190 site investigations, 105 Remedial investigations and over 20 compliance monitoring efforts. The new MY EXES functionality has been developed for project managers and decision makers to setup projects, track receipt of environmental remediation monitoring data, assess data quality, and manage data. It is designed to be flexible and configurable to meet any government agency's data review and data management needs. It is accessible 24/7 through a secure portal. MY EXES efficiently evaluates analytical data regardless of the underlying method and data reporting requirements. It is a centralized project and data assessment tool that is scalable, flexible and configurable; improving data quality while reducing cost through the following: - Provides users with the ability to create a project and to specify the analytical methods corresponding to the data that will be submitted for that project. A project can be modified and managed anytime during the project's life cycle. - Allows users to manage a library of analytical methods that can be made available for association to their projects. - Users can specify the automated tests and assessment that needs to be performed on the analytical data deliverables based on specific requirements in the project's Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP). - Users specify: - The format of the incoming data deliverables from the laboratory; - The type and level of review services to be performed; - The assessment deliverables to be generated - output spreadsheets and reports; - Project owner sets up system access and permissions for members of the project team. - A faster (600%) and less expensive (85%) process than the traditional data usability/validation. The EXES Data Manager application (EDM) provides a centralized data repository to view and retrieve generated reports, spreadsheets, and other data deliverables as defined by the client, eliminating the need for data transfer between project team members. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and pinon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. In conclusion, the framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic risk assessment for geologic CO 2 sequestration

At a geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) site, geologic uncertainty usually leads to large uncertainty in the predictions of properties that influence metrics for leakage risk assessment, such as CO 2 saturations and pressures in potentially leaky wellbores, CO 2 /brine leakage rates, and leakage consequences such as changes in drinking water quality in groundwater aquifers. The large uncertainty in these risk-related system properties and risk metrics can lead to over-conservative risk management decisions to ensure safe operations of GCS sites. The objective of this work is to develop a novel approach based on dynamic risk assessment to effectively reduce the uncertainty in the predicted risk-related system properties and risk metrics. We demonstrate our framework for dynamic risk assessment on two case studies: a 3D synthetic example and a synthetic field example based on the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) storage site in Wyoming, USA. Results show that the U.S. National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) coupled with a conformance evaluation can be used to effectively quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of risk-related system properties and risk metrics in GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Geo-Data Science Method for Assessing Unconventional Rare-Earth Element Resources in Sedimentary Systems

Abstract Rare-earth elements (REEs) supply raw materials that constitute many of our modern critical infrastructure, defense, technology, and electrification needs. Despite REE accumulations occurring in conventional bedrock and ion-adsorption deposits sourced from weathering of igneous rocks, unconventional host materials such as coal and related sedimentary strata have been identified as promising sources of REEs to meet growing demand. To maximize the potential of unconventional resources such as REE-coal systems, new approaches are needed overcome challenges from mineral systems with no known deposits and areas with sparse geochemical data. This article presents a systematic knowledge-data resource assessment method for predicting and identifying REE resource potential and occurrence in these unconventional systems. The method utilizes a geologic and geospatial knowledge-data approach informed and guided by REE accumulation mechanisms to systematically assess and identify areas of higher enrichment. An assessment of the Powder River Basin is presented as a test case to demonstrate the method workflow and results. The key output is a potential enrichment score map reported with varying confidence levels based on the amount of supporting evidence. Results from the test case indicate several locations with promising potential for different types of coal-REE deposits, demonstrating the viability of the method for exploration and assessment of unconventional REE resources. The method is flexible by design and, with sufficient applicable knowledge and data, can be adapted for assessing critical mineral systems in other sedimentary systems as well.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Conceptual and methodological challenges to integrating SEA and cumulative effects assessment

The constraints to assessing and managing cumulative environmental effects in the context of project-based environmental assessment are well documented, and the potential benefits of a more strategic approach to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) are well argued; however, such benefits have yet to be clearly demonstrated in practice. While it is widely assumed that cumulative effects are best addressed in a strategic context, there has been little investigation as to whether CEA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are a 'good fit' - conceptually or methodologically. This paper identifies a number of conceptual and methodological challenges to the integration of CEA and SEA. Based on results of interviews with international experts and practitioners, this paper demonstrates that: definitions and conceptualizations of CEA are typically weak in practice; approaches to effects aggregation vary widely; a systems perspective lacks in both SEA and CEA; the multifarious nature of SEA complicates CEA; tiering arrangements between SEA and project-based assessment are limited to non-existing; and the relationship of SEA to regional planning remains unclear.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bibliometric analysis of global environmental assessment research in a 20-year period

Based on the samples of 113,468 publications on environmental assessment (EA) from the past 20 years, we used a bibliometric analysis to study the literature in terms of trends of growth, subject categories and journals, international collaboration, geographic distribution of publications, and scientific research issues. By applying thresholds to network centralities, a core group of countries can be distinguished as part of the international collaboration network. A frequently used keywords analysis found that the priority in assessment would gradually change from project environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Decision-theoretic approaches (i.e., environmental indicator selection, life cycle assessment, etc.), along with new technologies and methods (i.e., the geographic information system and modeling) have been widely applied in the EA research field over the past 20 years. Hot spots such as “biodiversity” and “climate change” have been emphasized in current EA research, a trend that will likely continue in the future. The h-index has been used to evaluate the research quality among countries all over the world, while the improvement of developing countries' EA systems is becoming a popular research topic. Our study reveals patterns in scientific outputs and academic collaborations and serves as an alternative and innovative way of revealing global research trends in the EA research field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Towards a more holistic sustainability assessment framework for agro-bioenergy systems — A review

The use of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a sustainability assessment tool for agro-bioenergy system usually has an industrial agriculture bias. Furthermore, LCA generally has often been criticized for being a decision maker tool which may not consider decision takers perceptions. They are lacking in spatial and temporal depth, and unable to assess sufficiently some environmental impact categories such as biodiversity, land use etc. and most economic and social impact categories, e.g. food security, water security, energy security. This study explored tools, methodologies and frameworks that can be deployed individually, as well as in combination with each other for bridging these methodological gaps in application to agro-bioenergy systems. Integrating agronomic options, e.g. alternative farm power, tillage, seed sowing options, fertilizer, pesticide, irrigation into the boundaries of LCAs for agro-bioenergy systems will not only provide an alternative agro-ecological perspective to previous LCAs, but will also lead to the derivation of indicators for assessment of some social and economic impact categories. Deploying life cycle thinking approaches such as energy return on energy invested-EROEI, human appropriation of net primary production-HANPP, net greenhouse gas or carbon balance-NCB, water footprint individually and in combination with each other will also lead to further derivation of indicators suitable for assessing relevant environmental, social and economic impact categories. Also, applying spatio-temporal simulation models has a potential for improving the spatial and temporal depths of LCA analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A tiered approach for the human health risk assessment for consumption of vegetables from with cadmium-contaminated land in urban areas

Consumption of vegetables that are grown in urban areas takes place worldwide. In developing countries, vegetables are traditionally grown in urban areas for cheap food supply. In developing and developed countries, urban gardening is gaining momentum. A problem that arises with urban gardening is the presence of contaminants in soil, which can be taken up by vegetables. In this study, a scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables from cadmium-contaminated land. Starting from a contaminated site, the procedure follows a tiered approach which is laid out as follows. In Tier 0, the plausibility of growing vegetables is investigated. In Tier 1 soil concentrations are compared with the human health-based Critical soil concentration. Tier 2 offers the possibility for a detailed site-specific human health risk assessment in which calculated exposure is compared to the toxicological reference dose. In Tier 3, vegetable concentrations are measured and tested following a standardized measurement protocol. To underpin the derivation of the Critical soil concentrations and to develop a tool for site-specific assessment the determination of the representative concentration in vegetables has been evaluated for a range of vegetables. The core of the procedure is based on Freundlich-type plant–soil relations, with the total soil concentration and the soil properties as variables. When a significant plant–soil relation is lacking for a specific vegetable a geometric mean of BioConcentrationFactors (BCF) is used, which is normalized according to soil properties. Subsequently, a ‘conservative’ vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor is calculated as basis for the Critical soil concentration (Tier 1). The tool to perform site-specific human health risk assessment (Tier 2) includes the calculation of a ‘realistic worst case’ site-specific vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor. -- Highlights: • A scientifically-based and practical procedure has been developed for assessing the human health risks from the consumption of vegetables. • Uptake characteristics of cadmium in a series of vegetables is represented by a vegetable-group-consumption-rate-weighted BioConcentrationFactor. • Calculations and measurement steps are combined.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: I. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate male reproductive development toxicity data set

A case study was conducted, using dibutyl phthalate (DBP), to explore an approach to using toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. The toxicity and toxicogenomic data sets relative to DBP-related male reproductive developmental outcomes were considered conjointly to derive information about mode and mechanism of action. In this manuscript, we describe the case study evaluation of the toxicological database for DBP, focusing on identifying the full spectrum of male reproductive developmental effects. The data were assessed to 1) evaluate low dose and low incidence findings and 2) identify male reproductive toxicity endpoints without well-established modes of action (MOAs). These efforts led to the characterization of data gaps and research needs for the toxicity and toxicogenomic studies in a risk assessment context. Further, the identification of endpoints with unexplained MOAs in the toxicity data set was useful in the subsequent evaluation of the mechanistic information that the toxicogenomic data set evaluation could provide. The extensive analysis of the toxicology data set within the MOA context provided a resource of information for DBP in attempts to hypothesize MOAs (for endpoints without a well-established MOA) and to phenotypically anchor toxicogenomic and other mechanistic data both to toxicity endpoints and to available toxicogenomic data. This case study serves as an example of the steps that can be taken to develop a toxicological data source for a risk assessment, both in general and especially for risk assessments that include toxicogenomic data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals. - Highlights: ► We evaluate the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data for use in risk assessment. ► We focus on information about the mechanism of action for the developing testis. ► Multiple studies report effects on testosterone and insl3-related pathways. ► We identify additional affected pathways that may explain some testis effects. ► The case study is a template for evaluating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗