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NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols: Young Smoke Aerosols From Savanna Fires and Comparisons to Observations from SAFARI 2000

Annually, farmers in southern Africa manage their land resources and prepare their fields for cultivation by burning crop residual debris, with a peak in the burning season occurring during August and September. The emissions from these fires in southern Africa are among the greatest from fires worldwide, and the gases and aerosol particles produced adversely affect air quality large distances from their source regions, and can even be tracked in satellite imagery as they cross the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. During August and September 2000 an international group of researchers participating in the Southern African Regional Science Initiate field experiment (SAFARI 2000) made extensive ground-based, airborne, and satellite measurements of these gases and aerosols in order to quantify their amounts and effects on Earth's atmosphere. In this study we interpreted the measurements of smoke aerosol particles made during SAFARI 2000 in order to better represent these particles in a numerical model simulating their transport and fate. Typically, smoke aerosols emitted from fires are concentrated by mass in particles about 0.3 micrometers in diameter (1,000,000 micrometers = 1 meter, about 3 feet); for comparison, the thickness of a human hair is about 50 micrometers, almost 200 times as great. Because of the size of these particles, at the surface they can be easily inhaled into the lungs, and in high concentrations have deleterious health effects on humans. Additionally, these particles reflect and absorb sunlight, impacting both visibility and the balance of sunlight reaching -Earth's surface, and ultimately play a role in modulating Earth's climate. Because of these important effects, it is important that numerical models used to estimate Earth's climate response to changes in atmospheric composition accurately represent the quantity and evolution of smoke particles. In our model, called the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) we used estimates of smoke emissions based on field studies and observations made with the NASA Terra and TRMM satellites. The meteorology used to calculate the transport was based on an assimilation of observed meteorological conditions provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Matichuk, R. I.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Total Solar Eclipse of 2006 March 29

On 2006 March 29, a total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from within a narrow corridor which traverses half the Earth. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in Brazil and extends across the Atlantic, northern Africa, and central Asia where it ends at sunset in western Mongolia. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes the northern two thirds of Africa, Europe, and central Asia.Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for approximately 350 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile, and the sky during totality. Information on safe eclipse viewing and eclipse photography is included.

Espenak, F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observations of Lightning on Earth from the Lunar Surface

The NASA Optical Transient Detector (OTD) launched into a 70deg inclination orbit in April 1995 aboard the MicroLab-1 satellite and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) launched into a 35deg inclination orbit in November 1997 (and still operating today) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission have produced the most comprehensive global observations of lightning activity on Earth. The OTD collected data for 5-yr from an altitude of 740 km while the LIS, in its 10th year of operations, is still collecting data from its current altitude of 402 km. From these altitudes the OTD observes an individual storm within its field of view for approx.3 min and the LIS for approx.90 sec as the satellites orbit the earth. Figures 1-4 show the combined LIS/OTD distribution of lightning for day and night during the Northern Hemisphere warm season from April through August (Fig. 1,2) and the cool season from October through February (Fig. 3,4) as might be observed from the lunar surface (12-h daylight and 12-h nighttime observations). The day and night plots are for the twelve hour periods centered on local noon and midnight. The total viewtime of the global lightning activity is 200 hours or less, depending on latitude (Fig. 5). Most of the observed lightning occurs over the northern hemisphere land areas as reported in previous studies. More lightning activity is seen at the higher northern latitudes during the day. The greatest lightning maxima occurs in the southeastern US, during the day. The corresponding region at night shows much less lightning activity. In contrast, there is a maxima in lightning activity at night over the high Plains area of the U.S. This region had lower lightning rates during the daytime period. During the cold season, the southern hemisphere has significantly more lightning. The maxima in Central Africa is still present, and a secondary maxima is observed in South Africa. In South America, the maxima in Argentina occurs at night in association with large-scale mesoscale convective storm complexes. This is the region on the earth having the greatest frequency of extreme storms with flash rates exceeding 1000 flashes/min. daytime maxima is seen extending from Northern Argentina to Brazil. In the US., the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast states exhibit a maximum in lightning activity both day and night.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA Student Competitions

Topics covered include: I. Aeronautics Contest: a) High school and college students; b) Participation based on academic calendar; c) Vehicles and Systems; d) High School Division 2007 Highlights: 1) Top score for international teams..... girls from South Africa; 2) Top scores overall for individuals..... US and International were girls; f) Participating Countries: South Africa, India, Pakistan, Romania, Canada. II. Life and Work on the Moon: What images come to mind. a) Architecture; b) Industrial design; c) Computer Design; d) Fine arts. III. Next Generation Moon Buggy Contest: a) High School and College students; b) Real vehicles; c) Real missions.

Ward, Elizabeth B.↗
NASA NTRS2008

An Observational Study of the Relationship between Cloud, Aerosol and Meteorology in Broken Low-Level Cloud Conditions

Global satellite analyses showing strong correlations between aerosol optical depth and 3 cloud cover have stirred much debate recently. While it is tempting to interpret the results as evidence of aerosol enhancement of cloud cover, other factors such as the influence of meteorology on both the aerosol and cloud distributions can also play a role, as both aerosols and clouds depend upon local meteorology. This study uses satellite observations to examine aerosol-cloud relationships for broken low-level cloud regions off the coast of Africa. The analysis approach minimizes the influence of large-scale meteorology by restricting the spatial and temporal domains in which the aerosol and cloud properties are compared. While distributions of several meteorological variables within 5deg 5deg latitude-longitude regions are nearly identical under low and high aerosol optical depth, the corresponding distributions of single-layer low cloud properties and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes differ markedly, consistent with earlier studies showing increased cloud cover with aerosol optical depth. Furthermore, fine-mode fraction and Angstrom Exponent are also larger in conditions of higher aerosol optical depth, even though no evidence of systematic latitudinal or longitudinal gradients between the low and high aerosol optical depth populations are observed. When the analysis is repeated for all 5deg 5deg latitude-longitude regions over the global oceans (after removing cases in which significant meteorological differences are found between the low and high aerosol populations), results are qualitatively similar to those off the coast of Africa.

Loeb, Norman G.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The First Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related anomalies were analyzed using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. This is the first prospective prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS2009

Recent Biomass Burning in the Tropics and Related Changes in Tropospheric Ozone

Biomass burning is an important source of chemical precursors of tropospheric ozone. In the tropics, biomass burning produces ozone enhancements over broad regions of Indonesia, Africa, and South America including Brazil. Fires are intentionally set in these regions during the dry season each year to clear cropland and to clear land for human/industrial expansion. In Indonesia enhanced burning occurs during dry El Nino conditions such as in 1997 and 2006. These burning activities cause enhancement in atmospheric particulates and trace gases which are harmful to human health. Measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from October 2004-November 2008 are used to evaluate the effects of biomass burning on tropical tropospheric ozone. These measurements show sizeable decreases approx.15-20% in ozone in Brazil during 2008 compared to 2007 which we attribute to the reduction in biomass burning. Three broad biomass burning regions in the tropics (South America including Brazil, western Africa, and Indonesia) were analyzed in the context of OMI/MLS measurements and the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model developed at Goddard Space Flight Center. The results indicate that the impact of biomass burning on ozone is significant within and near the burning regions with increases of approx.10-25% in tropospheric column ozone relative to average background concentrations. The model suggests that about half of the increases in ozone from these burning events come from altitudes below 3 km. Globally the model indicates increases of approx.4-5% in ozone, approx.7-9% in NO, (NO+NO2), and approx.30-40% in CO.

Ziemke↗
NASA NTRS2010

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Edwards, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mohr, Karen I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of Satellite Observations to Manage Natural Disasters in the Lake Victoria Basin

Lake Victoria, the second largest fresh water lake in the Eastern part of Africa is a vital natural resource for the economic well being and prosperity of over 30 million people located in riparian regions of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. It covers a large area of about 68,870 km2 and produces a GDP of about US $30 billion per year. The region is also very much prone to natural disasters such as severe floods during heavy precipitation periods in the Eastern part of Africa. In addition to floods, the precipitation also produces large infestations of mosquito larvae due to the standing water in many areas. This further causes multiple vector borne diseases such as Malaria, Rift Valley Fever and more. These problems are of serious concern and require active and aggressive surveillance and management to minimize the loss of human and animal lives and property damage. Satellite imagery and observations along with the in situ measurements provide a great tool to analyze and study this area and inform the policy makers to make calculated policy decisions which are more beneficial to the environment. Recently, NASA and USAID have joined forces with the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) located in Nairobi, Kenya to utilize multiple NASA sensors such as TRMM, SRTM and MODIS to develop flood potential maps for the Lake Victoria Basin. The idea is to generate a flood forecasts and "nowcasts" that can be sent to the disaster management organizations of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Post flood event satellite imagery is becoming a common tool to assess the areas inundated by flooding. However, this work is unique undertaking by utilizing land imaging and atmospheric satellites to build credible flood potential maps. At same time, we are also studying the potential occurrence and spread of Rift Valley Fever disease based on the short term climate records and precipitation data. These activities require multi-nation coordination and agreements and multiple operational agencies within each respective country. It also requires credible in situ data such as precipitation, river flow rates and lake levels to further validate the global and regional Hood models and algorithms. This also requires a considerable amount of training and capacity building for the RCMRD experts who will help us validate the model results and eventually transition it for operational use. In a final analysis, Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid Hood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of Hood forecasting and detection products.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Mohr, Karen I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Filovirus Research: The Need for an Integrated Approach in Time and Space

The episodic appearance of Ebola virus (EBOV) and Marburg virus (MARV) across central Africa over the last 15 years not only underscores the importance of filoviruses as uniquely virulent agents to both human and wildlife communities but also implies a very complex transmission scenario that must be understood if we are to prevent or mitigate filovirus outbreaks in the future. Efforts of a global network of scientists and healthcare workers have expanded our knowledge of filoviruses to meet the growing threat of Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers in Africa. In recent decades, several newly emerging diseases have resulted in major threats to both affected communities and global public health. Viruses from wildlife hosts in particular, have exhibited a capability for cross-species transmission (CST), and have caused high-impact diseases in humans Such as Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers, Nipah and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SAILS). It has been estimated that about 60.3% (Jones et al. 2008) of human infectious diseases are of animal origin (zoonoses) and even some important viral diseases that are traditionally considered of human origin, for example measles and smallpox, may very well have their prehistoric origins in wildlife (Wolfe et al 2007). It maybe logical and prudent therefore, to anticipate that there are other, new filoviruses out there that will cross into humans at some point in time. If we anticipate that these will happen and wish to be prepared for and mitigate this potential, then an understanding of filoviruses as a biologic system in the environment will be essential to that process. We will need to know how the ecological dynamic of CST interacts with a 'new' viruse's evolutionary factors to overcome environmental, demographic and host-specific barriers to transmission and infectivity to humans.

Pinzon, Jorge E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2011

TRMM-Based Lightning Climatology

Gridded climatologies of total lightning flash rates seen by the spaceborne Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) have been updated. OTD collected data from May 1995 to March 2000. LIS data (equatorward of about 38 deg) has been added for 1998-2010. Flash counts from each instrument are scaled by the best available estimates of detection efficiency. The long LIS record makes the merged climatology most robust in the tropics and subtropics, while the high latitude data is entirely from OTD. The mean global flash rate from the merged climatology is 46 flashes per second. The peak annual flash rate at 0.5 deg scale is 160 fl/square km/yr in eastern Congo. The peak monthly average flash rate at 2.5 scale is 18 fl/square km/mo, from early April to early May in the Brahmaputra Valley of far eastern India. Lightning decreases in this region during the monsoon season, but increases further north and west. A monthly average peak from early August to early September in northern Pakistan also exceeds any monthly averages from Africa, despite central Africa having the greatest yearly average. Most continental regions away from the equator have an annual cycle with lightning flash rates peaking in late spring or summer. The main exceptions are India and southeast Asia, with springtime peaks in April and May. For landmasses near the equator, flash rates peak near the equinoxes. For many oceanic regions, the peak flash rates occur in autumn. This is particularly noticeable for the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. Landmasses have a strong diurnal cycle of lightning, with flash rates generally peaking between 3-5 pm local solar time. The central United States flash rates peak later, in late evening or early night. Flash rates peak after midnight in northern Argentina. These regions are known for large, intense, long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Critical Examination of Spatial Biases Between MODIS and MISR Aerosol Products - Application for Potential AERONET Deployment

AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data are the primary benchmark for evaluating satellite-retrieved aerosol properties. However, despite its extensive coverage, the representativeness of the AERONET data is rarely discussed. Indeed, many studies have shown that satellite retrieval biases have a significant degree of spatial correlation that may be problematic for higher-level processes or inverse-emissions-modeling studies. To consider these issues and evaluate relative performance in regions of few surface observations, cross-comparisons between the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products of operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Dark Target (DT) and operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Deep Blue (DB) with MISR version 22 were conducted. Through such comparisons, we can observe coherent spatial features of the AOD bias while side-stepping the full analysis required for determining when or where either retrieval is more correct. We identify regions where MODIS to MISR AOD ratios were found to be above 1.4 and below 0.7. Regions where lower boundary condition uncertainty is likely to be a dominant factor include portions of Western North America, the Andes mountains, Saharan Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and Central Asia. Similarly, microphysical biases may be an issue in South America, and specific parts of Southern Africa, India Asia, East Asia, and Indonesia. These results help identify high-priority locations for possible future deployments of both in situ and ground based remote sensing measurements. The Supplement includes a km1 file.

Shi, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The NASA Meter Class Autonomous Telescope: Ascension Island

The Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) is the newest optical sensor dedicated to NASA's mission to characterize the space debris environment. It is the successor to a series of optical telescopes developed and operated by the JSC Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) to monitor and assess the debris environment in (1) Low Earth Orbit (LEO), (2) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and (3) Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO), with emphasis on LEO and GEO altitudes. A joint NASA - Air Force Research Labs project, MCAT is a 1.3m optical telescope dedicated to debris research. Its optical path and sensor yield a large survey fence at the cutting edge of current detector performance. It has four primary operational observing modes, two of which were not computationally feasible a decade ago. Operations are supported by a sophisticated software suite that monitors clouds and weather conditions, and controls everything from data collection to dome rotation to processing tens of gigabytes of image data nightly. With fainter detection limits, precision detection, acquisition and tracking of targets, multi-color photometry, precision astrometry, automated re-acquisition capability, and the ability to process all data at the acquisition rate, MCAT is capable of producing and processing a volume and quality of data far in excess of any current (or prior) ODPO operations. This means higher fidelity population inputs and eliminating the multi-year backlog from acquisition-to-product typical of optical campaigns. All of this is possible given a suitable observing location. Ascension Island offers numerous advantages. As a British overseas territory with a US Air Force base presence, the necessary infrastructure and support already exists. It is located mid-way between Brazil and Africa at 7.93S latitude and 14.37 W longitude. With the Ground-based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance (GEODSS) asset in Moron, Spain shutting down, this presents access to the sky from a unique latitude/longitude for an optical telescope. Constant trade winds from the SSE, originating from Africa, give promise to a steady laminar airflow over an island, a trait sought after to create stable atmospheric and good astronomical 'seeing' conditions with very low annual rainfall values. This combination of attributes created the necessary compelling argument to redirect MCAT to its final destination: Ascension Island.

Lederer, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗