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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An infeasible-start framework for convex quadratic optimization, with application to constraint-reduced interior-point and other methods

A framework is proposed for solving general convex quadratic programs (CQPs) from an infeasible starting point by invoking an existing feasible-start algorithm tailored for inequality-constrained CQPs. The central tool is an exact penalty function scheme equipped with a penalty-parameter updating rule. The feasible-start algorithm merely has to satisfy certain general requirements, and so is the updating rule. Under mild assumptions, the framework is proved to converge on CQPs with both inequality and equality constraints and, at a negligible additional cost per iteration, produces an infeasibility certificate, together with a feasible point for an (approximately) ℓ 1 -least relaxed feasible problem, when the given problem does not have a feasible solution. The framework is applied to a feasible-start constraint-reduced interior-point algorithm previously proved to be highly performant on problems with many more inequality constraints than variables (“imbalanced”). Numerical comparison with popular codes (OSQP, qpOASES, MOSEK) is reported on both randomly generated problems and support-vector machine classifier training problems. The results show that the former typically outperforms the latter on imbalanced problems. Finally, application of the proposed infeasible-start framework to other feasible-start algorithms is briefly considered, and is tested on a simplex iteration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share of services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Soil Warming and Permafrost Thaw Increase CH 4 Emissions in an Upland Tundra Ecosystem

Rapid Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw and exposing large quantities of soil organic carbon (C) to potential decomposition. In dry upland tundra systems, subsidence from thawing permafrost can increase surface soil moisture resulting in higher methane (CH 4 ) emissions from newly waterlogged soils. The proportion of C released as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 remains uncertain as previously dry landscapes transition to a thawed state, resulting in both wetter and drier microsites. To address how thaw and moisture interact to affect total C emissions, here we measured CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from paired chambers across thaw and moisture gradients created by nine years of experimental soil warming in interior Alaska. Cumulative growing season (May–September) CH 4 emissions were elevated at both wetter (216.1–1,099.4 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) and drier (129.7–392.3 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) deeply thawed microsites relative to shallow thaw (55.6–215.7 mg CH 4 -C m –2 ) and increased with higher deep soil temperatures and permafrost thaw depth. Interannual variability in CH4 emissions was driven by wet conditions in graminoid-dominated plots that generated >70% of emissions in a wet year. Shoulder season emissions were equivalent to growing season CH 4 emissions rates in the deeply thawed, warmed soils, highlighting the importance of non-growing season CH 4 emissions. Net C sink potential was reduced in deeply thawed wet plots by 4%–42%, and by 3.5%–8% in deeply thawed drier plots due to anaerobic respiration, suggesting that some dry upland tundra landscapes may transition into stronger CH 4 sources in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Reliability and Frequency Security in Wind-Rich Power Grids

The penetration of wind energy has increased significantly in the power grid in recent times. Although wind is abundant, environment-friendly, and cheap, it is variable in nature and does not contribute to system inertia as much as conventional synchronous generators. Coupled with the low inertia contribution, the generation intermittency of wind power leads to reliability and stability issues in the power system. Energy storage systems (ESSs) are among the most prominent alternatives to alleviate these concerns associated with high wind penetration. This paper proposes a planning strategy to size ESS for the reliability and frequency security of wind-rich power grids. A probabilistic methodology for ESS sizing is developed utilizing a composite reliability-based framework with sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The MCS generates composite reliability indices for the power system, which are employed to obtain the capacity for a reliability energy storage system (RESS). Simultaneously, the MCS-derived probability of synchronization of conventional generators is integrated into an analytical approach for sizing a frequency support energy storage system (FESS). The effect of wind farm dispersion across geographical regions is incorporated in the framework to study possible reductions in the ESS size while maintaining the system reliability and frequency security. Furthermore, the efficacy of the proposed strategy is demonstrated on the RTS-GMLC test system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data‐driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Summary Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops. Using 727 maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Kusmec, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2023

Schneider Springs Fire Study 2023 for Ecosystem Respiration Rates: Surface Water Chemistry and Hydrologic Sensor Data across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in wildfire impacts across the Yakima River Basin. Data provided within this dataset were generated from sample collection across 17 total sites (8 sites affected by a recent wildfire, 9 sites unaffected by a recent wildfire) within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA from May-July 2023. Fire affected sites are defined as those affected by the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire, based on the drainage area of the streams being within the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire burn perimeter or not (Figure 1, below). The contents include surface water geochemistry data (dissolved organic carbon; total dissolved nitrogen; total suspended solids); short-term sonde data (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature); stream depth data; stream velocity; manual chamber open channel respiration data; sensor time-series data (oxygen; water pressure; barometric pressure); field metadata (including qualitative information on in stream and river corridor characteristics); and environmental context photos taken in the field. The dataset also includes a summary file of the sensor data and plots of the sensor data. Sensors were only recovered at 15 out of the 17 sites, and not all sensors were recovered at all 15 sites (see Methods section for more details), therefore all data does not exist at all sites. Data from a 2022 study at the same sites, as well as additional sites, can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1969566. The data package was originally published in November 2023. It was updated in June 2025 (v2; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset is comprised of one folder with field photos and one main data folder with two subfolders. The main data folder consists of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) field protocol; (5) readme; (6) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (7) stream depth and averages. The sensor data subfolder consists of (1) sensor installation methods summary; (2) stream velocity; and (3) six subfolders. The BarotrollAtm (barometric pressure; temperature), DepthHOBO (water pressure; temperature), MantaRiver (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature), EXO (specific conductivity; pH; temperature), miniDOT (dissolved oxygen; temperature), and miniDOTManualChamber (dissolved oxygen; temperature) contain time-series data, plots, and summary files. The sample data subfolder consists of (1) total suspended solids (TSS) data; (2) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (3) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) data and averages; and (4) methods codes. All files are .csv, .pdf, .jpg, .jpeg, or .mov.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Study 2022-2024: Sample-Based Surface Water Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Total Nitrogen, Stable Isotopes, and Total Suspended Solids from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of temporal variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides geochemistry data generated from samples collected at bi-weekly or monthly intervals at six sites across the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Sample and sensor data from previous years (2021-2022) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898912 and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1892054, respectively. Related sensor data from 2022-2024 will be published separately. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; (5) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and averages; (6) dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC) and averages; (7) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) and averages; (8) total suspended solids (TSS); (9) stable isotopes; (10) surface water sampling protocol; (11) sensor protocol; (12) methods codes; and (13) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file. All files are .csv or .pdf. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. For data and scripts associated with "Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest" (Butler et al., 2026), go to https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3025481

18-O↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing to Evaluate Processes Expected to Occur during MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Obtaining a license for a new nuclear reactor requires the identification and assessment of the potential consequences of specified accident scenarios, which are achieved using accident progression models. Those models need to be parameterized and validated using experimental data, but existing experimental data addressing processes relevant to molten salt reactor accidents are sparse. Specifically, experimental data that quantify the sensitives of important processes to the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the containment features are needed to parameterize individual process models. Integrated experiments that simulate accident scenarios are also needed to provide data for model validation, but these experiments will require the use of proven methods to quantify the processes under evaluation. The overarching objectives of this work are to develop the methods for simulating the targeted processes, to determine the effectiveness of the methods in producing the data required for model development, to generate data that can be used to parameterize individual process models, and to provide key insights into the behavior of spilled molten salt that should be considered in models. Experimental methods were designed to quantify aspects of individual processes expected to occur during or after a molten salt spill accident that will affect the fate of spilled molten salt and the radionuclides within. These processes include 1) molten salt spreading and heat transfer, 2) molten salt flowing and freezing in tubing, 3) stainless steel corrosion kinetics in molten salt, and 4) molten salt splashing and aerosol generation. The initial tests described in this report were conducted using eutectic FLiNaK to demonstrate the test methods, the data that are generated, and the analyses of the data to derive values needed for modeling. The primary variables that were tested include initial salt temperature and the presence of volatile surrogate fission products (e.g., cesium and iodine). The developed methods are shown to be effective in quantifying the desired processes and can be applied to study more complex salt compositions of interest to molten salt reactor developers, a wide range of environmental conditions of interest to modelers, and additional variables relevant to salt spill accidents. The developed methods and insights gained from laboratory tests can also be incorporated in future large-scale integrated tests used to simulate molten salt spill accidents.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Process for Carbon Dioxide Conversion to Fuel

In this project, TDA developed a new mixed metal oxide-based sorbent that converts CO2 (captured from coal fired power plants) to CO, which can then be combined with renewable H2 generated by water electrolysis or H2 from steam methane reforming to produce different liquid fuels. TDA’s absorbent-based CO2 conversion process uses a redox process, which splits the catalytic reforming of methane with CO2 reaction into two stages: CO2 reduction to CO and CH4 reforming into H2 and CO which eliminates the equilibrium limitations. The CO produced in the two-stage reactor system can then be further reacted with renewable H2 to produce methanol, naphtha, diesel, or gasoline. We worked with the Advanced Power & Energy Program (APEP) of University of California, Irvine (UCI) to design and develop the liquid fuel synthesis process that is built around this new material. We demonstrated the techno-economic viability of the new sorbent based redox process to convert CO2 into synthesis gas by demonstrating continuous carbon dioxide reduction in a prototype test system for over 585 hours while converting up to 10 kg CO2/day. With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a larger pilot-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 to TRL 5. In collaboration with UCI, we completed a high-fidelity process design and economic analysis. The required sale price (RSP) for gasoline (Case 1 NG-MTG) is $4.91/gal and naphtha and diesel (Case 2 NG-FT) are $4.23/gal and $6.07/gal, respectively, on a 2011 dollar basis. To put these costs in perspective, the California prices in current dollars (with its strict specifications) for regular grade gasoline from last year to current year have varied from a low of $3.10/gal in January 2021 to a high of $5.76/gal in March 2022, while prices for diesel from last year to current year have varied from a low of $3.40/gal in January 2021 to a high of $6.41/gal in May 2022 according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency data. It should be noted that the gasoline and diesel produced by these designs of Case 1 and Case 2 would be of very high quality and both nitrogen and sulfur free. These RSPs are based on a cost of imported electricity of $64/MWh based on the low-end current wind generated electricity cost (Genevieve 2011). This cost is by far the largest component of the variable costs used in computing the RSPs. A sensitivity analysis of these RSPs to the cost of imported electricity shows that the cost of the imported electricity has a significant effect on the RSPs. The life cycle analysis (LCA) shows that the total cradle-to-gate CO2 emissions for both liquid fuels (diesel and gasoline) were negative, indicating that overall more CO2 is consumed than released during production of the fuel from CO2 feed stack for both cases (-296 kgCO2 per MT gasoline for Case 1 and -705 kgCO2 per MT diesel for Case 2). On a cradle-to-grave comparison, the use of diesel produced using TDA’s process (2,457 kgCO2 per MT diesel) would release 37.6% less CO2 compared to petroleum based diesel (3,937 kgCO2 per MT diesel) while the use of gasoline produced using TDA’s process (2,792 kgCO2 per MT gasoline) would release 29.3% less CO2 compared to petroleum based gasoline (3,946 kgCO2 per MT gasoline). With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a bench-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 (Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof of concept) to TRL 5 (Laboratory scale similar system validation in relevant environment).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vaccine Advances against Venezuelan, Eastern, and Western Equine Encephalitis Viruses

Vaccinations are a crucial intervention in combating infectious diseases. The three neurotropic Alphaviruses, Eastern (EEEV), Venezuelan (VEEV), and Western (WEEV) equine encephalitis viruses, are pathogens of interest for animal health, public health, and biological defense. In both equines and humans, these viruses can cause febrile illness that may progress to encephalitis. Currently, there are no licensed treatments or vaccines available for these viruses in humans. Experimental vaccines have shown variable efficacy and may cause severe adverse effects. Here, we outline recent strategies used to generate vaccines against EEEV, VEEV, and WEEV with an emphasis on virus-vectored and plasmid DNA delivery. Despite candidate vaccines protecting against one of the three viruses, few studies have demonstrated an effective trivalent vaccine. We evaluated the potential of published vaccines to generate cross-reactive protective responses by comparing DNA vaccine sequences to a set of EEEV, VEEV, and WEEV genomes and determining the vaccine coverages of potential epitopes. Finally, we discuss future directions in the development of vaccines to combat EEEV, VEEV, and WEEV.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Smart-PGSim: Using Neural Network to Accelerate AC-OPF Power Grid Simulation

In this work we address the problem of accelerating complex power-grid simulation through machine learning ( ML). Specifically, we develop a framework, Smart-PGSim,which generates multitask-learning (MTL) neural network (NN)models to predict the initial values of variables critical to the problem convergence. MTL models allow information sharing when predicting multiple dependent variables while including customized layers to predict individual variables. We show that,to achieve the required accuracy, it is paramount to embed domain-specific constraints derived from the specific power-grid components in the MTL model. Smart-PGSim then employs the predicted initial values as a high-quality initial condition for the power-grid numerical solver (warm start), resulting in both higher performance compared to state-of-the-art solutions while maintaining the required accuracy. Smart-PGSim brings 2.60×speedup on average (up to 3.28×) computed over 10,000 problems, without losing solution optimality.

machine learning, neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-Term Planning for the Tamil Nadu Power System

Increased deployment of wind and solar raises new questions for power system planners regarding the future mix of generation technologies, optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission investments, and system flexibility needs. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is working with Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company (TANGEDCO) to answer the following questions: How much—and what type—of generation and transmission investments are needed to serve future demand at least cost? How can variable resources such as wind and solar be considered in the planning process? What are the key drivers (e.g., policies, technology costs, fuel constraints) for investments?

Children's Investment Fund Foundation↗
DOE OSTI2022

FORCE Development Status Update: Vertical Integration and Benchmarking of System Dynamics

Recent efforts to establish effective models for grid energy analysis, especially given the increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) sources and the economic challenges faced by traditional nuclear energy, have generated new technological considerations. One effort to improve the economic viability of nuclear power involves investigating integrated energy systems (IES) which include secondary energy systems that introduce flexibility and secondary market possibilities to existing and perceived future nuclear energy generation technologies. To analyze the technical and economic potential of IES, the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite was developed through a collaboration among national laboratories. Within the FORCE tool suite, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) provides algorithms for analyzing the long-term viability of potential IES technologies, while HYBRID provides algorithms and models to achieve high-resolution analysis of coupling physics over a short time period. Continued maturing of the FORCE tool suite requires further interconnections between the various tools in the suite in order to ensure consistent analysis. Analyses performed by applying HYBRID to transient process modeling should be easily harvestable as inputs to HERON analyses. The first item in this status update is a demonstration of an automated data pipeline for loading data from HYBRID into HERON analyses. Application of HYBRID results to HERON, as part of using the FORCE tool suite, relies on robust modeling assumptions for the various models included in HYBRID. The second result of this status update is the benchmarking and validation of cost and operational data, with a particular focus on natural gas energy generators. These generators are benchmarked with a focus on contrasting them with proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Energy System Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources poses challenges for electrical grids. This is due to the variable and uncertain nature of the power output from these resources. These features of renewable generation are more relevant to energy system planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. We present approaches for energy system planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using multi-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute energy system expansion decisions on modified versions of the RTS-GMLC test system.

electrical↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Energy System Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of power from renewable energy sources poses new challenges for electrical grids. This is due to the variable and uncertain nature of the power output from these resources. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to energy system planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this presentation we present approaches for energy system planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using multi-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute energy system expansion decisions on modified versions of the RTS-GMLC test system augmented with large amounts of renewable generation.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conceptual Design of Pulverized Coal Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation

This presentation was given by Marc Turner, NETL Support Contractor, at the International Center for Sustainable Carbon's "The Energy Transition - the Role for Sustainable Carbon" workshop held in Sardinia, Italy on November 16-18, 2022. The presentation addresses the NETL report titled "Conceptual Design of Pulverized Coal Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation" published on September 6, 2022. This study presents an independent conceptual assessment of the features, cost, and performance of pulverized coal power plants (without carbon dioxide capture) intended for flexible, rather than baseload, operation. The objective was to leverage the already substantial knowledge base about flexible operation and develop state-of-the-art pulverized coal power plant cases that are designed to accommodate flexible operation within an electric grid having a high level of renewable generation. This is of significant importance in coal-dependent regions of the world as variable renewable energy becomes more prevalent.

Turner, Marc↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗