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At least 721 records · Page 40

Noise produced by turbulent flow into a rotor: Users manual for atmospheric turbulence prediction and mean flow and turbulence contraction prediction

A users manual for a computer program for predicting atmospheric turbulence and mean flow and turbulence contraction as part of a noise prediction scheme for nonisotropic turbulence ingestion noise in helicopters is described. Included are descriptions of the various program modules and subroutines, their function, programming structure, and the required input and output variables. This routine is incorporated as one module of NASA's ROTONET helicopter noise prediction program.

Simonich, J. C.↗

An investigation to improve the Menhaden fishery prediction and detection model through the application of ERTS-A data

The author has identified the following significant results. Linear regression of secchi disc visibility against number of sets yielded significant results in a number of instances. The variability seen in the slope of the regression lines is due to the nonuniformity of sample size. The longer the period sampled, the larger the total number of attempts. Further, there is no reason to expect either the influence of transparency or of other variables to remain constant throughout the season. However, the fact that the data for the entire season, variable as it is, was significant at the 5% level, suggests its potential utility for predictive modeling. Thus, this regression equation will be considered representative and will be utilized for the first numerical model. Secchi disc visibility was also regressed against number of sets for the three day period September 27-September 29, 1972 to determine if surface truth data supported the intense relationship between ERTS-1 identified turbidity and fishing effort previously discussed. A very negative correlation was found. These relationship lend additional credence to the hypothesis that ERTS imagery, when utilized as a source of visibility (turbidity) data, may be useful as a predictive tool.

Maughan, P. M.↗

Implementation of wall boundary conditions for transpiration in F3D thin-layer Navier-Stokes code

Numerical boundary conditions for mass injection/suction at the wall are incorporated in the thin-layer Navier-Stokes code, F3D. The accuracy of the boundary conditions and the code is assessed by a detailed comparison of the predictions of velocity distributions and skin-friction coefficients with exact similarity solutions for laminar flow over a flat plate with variable blowing/suction, and measurements for turbulent flow past a flat plate with uniform blowing. In laminar flow, F3D predictions for friction coefficient compare well with exact similarity solution with and without suction, but produces large errors at moderate-to-large values of blowing. A slight Mach number dependence of skin-friction coefficient due to blowing in turbulent flow is computed by F3D code. Predicted surface pressures for turbulent flow past an airfoil with mass injection are in qualitative agreement with measurements for a flat plate.

Kandula, M.↗

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

Moreno, Vito↗

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Dynamics, statistics and predictability of planetary flow regimes

Consideration is given to regimes of low-frequency variability in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. The model utilized is the fully-nonlinear, equivalent-baratropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. It is found that certain limited regions in the system's phase space are visited repeatedly and for extended periods by model solutions. Flow patterns coupled with these regions correspond to synoptically-defined zonal and blocked Northern Hemisphere midlatitude flows. It is shown that the system's macrodynamics can be depicted by two or more planetary flow regimes, the expected residence time in each regime, and the transition properties from one regime to another. These model-derived ideas are also applied to a time series of atmospheric data from the Southern Hemisphere.

Ghil, Michael↗

Effect of Rain-Adjusted Satellite Sea Surface Salinity on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

ENSO has a significant impact on climate variability throughout the world and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of altimetry and in situ data lead to improved short-term forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density/mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, most projects that do assimilate SSS do so as if these data were observed at the top model layer instead of at the surface. In rainy regions where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely invalid. Therefore, we adjust SSS so that it more accurately represents the salinity at the first model layer. The Rain Impact Model (RIM) uses a simple diffusion model to determine the near surface salinity gradient (i.e., 1 cm to 5 m). Satellite SSS data are modified using this near-surface salinity gradient, so the salinity values are now valid at the first model layer (we call this SSS@5m). We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO S2S coupled system. For all reanalysis experiments, all available along-track sea level and in situ observations are assimilated for 2011 to 2020 using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis assimilates Aquarius /SMAP SSS as before. An additional reanalysis is performed assimilating the SSS@5m data. Validation statistics are compared for experiments that assimilate SSS (sub-optimally as before) versus the SSS@5m. We also compare results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from these reanalyses in spring. For all but the big La Niña in 2017, all NINO3.4 forecasts were improved by using the RIM. We will show that improved SSS estimates upgrades density and near-surface mixing leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts.

ENSO↗

STOL ride quality criteria - Passenger acceptance.

The ability to mathematically model human reaction to variables involved in transportation systems offers a very desirable tool both for the prediction of passenger acceptance of proposed systems, and for establishing acceptance criteria for the system designer. As a first step in the development of a general model for STOL systems, a mathematical formulation is presented which accepts as inputs nine variables felt to be important in flight under STOL-type conditions and presents an index of human response as the output. The variables used are three linear motions, three angular motions, pressure, temperature and noise level. The results are used to establish specifications for stability augmentation systems to improve the ride quality of existing STOL aircraft.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗

Use of Remote Sensing/Geographical Information Systems (RS/GIS) to Identify the Distributional Limits of Soil-Transmitted Helminths (STHs) and Their Association to Prevalence of Intestinal Infection in School-Age Children in Four Rural Communities in Boaco, Nicaragua

STHs can infect all members of a population but school-age children living in poverty are at greater risk. Infection can be controlled with drug treatment, health education and sanitation. Helminth control programs often lack resources and reliable information to identify areas of highest risk to guide interventions and to monitor progress. Objectives: To use RS/GIS to identify the environmental variables that correlate with the ecology of STHs and with the prevalence of STH infections. Methods: Geo-referenced in situ prevalence data will be overlaid over an ecological map derived from the RS environmental data using ESRI s ArcGIS 9.3. Prevalence data and RS environmental data matching at the same geographical location will be analyzed for correlation and those RS environmental variables that better correlate with prevalence data will be included in a multivariate regression model. Temperature, vegetation, and distance to bodies of water will be inferred using data from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, and Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) satellite sensors onboard Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 respectively. Elevation will be estimated with data from The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Prevalence and intensity of infections will be determined by parasitological survey (Kato Katz) of children enrolled in rural schools in Boaco, Nicaragua, in the communities of El Roblar, Cumaica Norte, Malacatoya 1, and Malacatoya 2). Expected Results: Associations between RS environmental data and prevalence in situ data will be determined and their applications to public health will be discussed. Discussion/Conclusions: The use of RS/GIS data to predict the prevalence of STH infections could be useful for helminth control programs, providing improved geographical guidance of interventions while increasing cost-effectiveness. Learning Objectives: (1) To identify the RS environmental variables that can help predict the prevalence of STH infections. (2) To understand potential applications of RS/GIS to national helminth control programs. (3) To asses the applicability of RS/GIS to control STH infections.

Moreno, Max J.↗

Interfacial solitary waves in a two-fluid medium

Solitary waves are generated on the interface between two immiscible liquids with free upper surface; their behavior is generally consistent with that predicted by the Korteweg-de Vries equation. Inviscid theory expanded to include capillary effects predicts unchanged wave speed and narrowed wave shape to first order in amplitude regardless of upper boundary condition; but measured speeds are down 8% and narrowing is substantially greater at very small amplitudes. The speed difference appears consistent with an interfacial viscous boundary layer. The critical depth ratio separating the elevation and depression modes of the stable gravity solitary wave agrees with prediction in the inviscid limit. The design of a programmed, variable flux wave maker for efficiently generating interfacial waves is discussed.

Walker, L. R.↗

The inertial properties of the body and its segments

Mass distribution properties of the adult human body are summarized. The summary is user-oriented for design engineers and mathematical modeling. Properties are dicussed in terms of the musculoskeletal linkage system, axes systems, mass, volume, center of mass, and inertial properties. Data and prediction equations or coefficients for modeling these properties are provided. Predictive formulas use total body weight and stature as independent variables. The data are based on small samples of living and cadaveric subjects typical of the white European male.

Reynolds, H. M.↗

Three-dimensional elastic-plastic finite-element analysis of fatigue crack propagation

Fatigue cracks are a major problem in designing structures subjected to cyclic loading. Cracks frequently occur in structures such as aircraft and spacecraft. The inspection intervals of many aircraft structures are based on crack-propagation lives. Therefore, improved prediction of propagation lives under flight-load conditions (variable-amplitude loading) are needed to provide more realistic design criteria for these structures. The main thrust was to develop a three-dimensional, nonlinear, elastic-plastic, finite element program capable of extending a crack and changing boundary conditions for the model under consideration. The finite-element model is composed of 8-noded (linear-strain) isoparametric elements. In the analysis, the material is assumed to be elastic-perfectly plastic. The cycle stress-strain curve for the material is shown Zienkiewicz's initial-stress method, von Mises's yield criterion, and Drucker's normality condition under small-strain assumptions are used to account for plasticity. The three-dimensional analysis is capable of extending the crack and changing boundary conditions under cyclic loading.

Goglia, G. L.↗

Simulation studies related to the design of post-FGGE observing systems

The results of three detailed simulation studies are presented. The first study consists of a comparative assessment of the performance of an advanced moisture/temperature sounder (AMTS) being proposed by NASA as a follow-on replacement to the current HIRS-2 operational sounder aboard the NOAA weather satellites. The second study was concerned with assessing the relative accuracies of inferred atmospheric states for idealized lidar wind profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, surface pressure systems, and composite systems. The third study incorporated the above systems into a highly realistic data analysis/forecast cycle from which a series of forecast impact studies were conducted. These studies, taken together, give us a picture of the potential that emerging technoloies can offer in the determination of the basic atmospheric variables required for long-range numerical weather and climate prediction.

Halem, M.↗

Stress and efficiency studies in EFG

The goals of this program were: (1) to define minimum stress configurations for silicon sheet growth at high speeds; (2) to quantify dislocation electrical activity and their limits on minority carrier diffusion length in deformed silicon; and (3) to study reasons for degradation of lifetime with increases in doping level in edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) materials. A finite element model was developed for calculating residual stress with plastic deformation. A finite element model was verified for EFG control variable relationships to temperature field of the sheet to permit prediction of profiles and stresses encountered in EFG systems. A residual stress measurement technique was developed for finite size EFG material blanks using shadow Moire interferometry. Transient creep response of silicon was investigated in the temperature range between 800 and 1400 C in strain and strain regimes of interest in stress analysis of sheet growth. Quantitative relationships were established between minority carrier diffusion length and dislocation densities using Electron Beam Induced Current (EBIC) measurement in FZ silicon deformed in four point bending tests.

Source record↗

Closure models of turbulent third-order momentum and temperature fluctuations

A study is made for the development and computations of the separating and reattaching shear flows. The highlight of the study is an attempt to predict the third-moments of turbulent velocity which is responsible for the diffusion transport of the Reynolds stresses. The present computations show that the third-moments obtained by employing the law-Reynolds number model of transport equations improve the prediction of the third-moments. The modelling for scalar variables is also performed for the heat transfer computations. Since the transport equations for (u sub j theta)* and (u sub i u sub j theta) have been given in the last NASA CR, the study has been extended further to the modeling of (theta sup 2), (u sub i theta sup 2) and epsilon sub theta (dissipation rate of (theta sup 2)). The formulations are shown in this report.

Amano, R. S.↗