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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

NPP ATMS Snowfall Rate Product

Passive microwave measurements at certain high frequencies are sensitive to the scattering effect of snow particles and can be utilized to retrieve snowfall properties. Some of the microwave sensors with snowfall sensitive channels are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has been developed recently. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. The model employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derive the probability of snowfall (Kongoli et al., 2015). In addition, a set of NWP model based filters is also employed to improve the accuracy of snowfall detection. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model (Yan et al., 2008). A method developed by Heymsfield and Westbrook (2010) is adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. NCEP CMORPH analysis has shown that integration of ATMS SFR has improved the performance of CMORPH‐Snow. The ATMS SFR product is also being assessed at several NWS Weather Forecast Offices for its usefulness in weather forecast.

Forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low Regeneration Temperature Sorbents for Direct Air Capture of CO 2

Susteon Inc., in partnership with University of Wyoming and SoCalGas, successfully met all major technical objectives to (1) scale up the ionic liquid catalyst for amine-based sorbents for improved desorption and absorption kinetics, (2) evaluate the catalyzed amine-based sorbents for direct CO 2 capture process to determine CO 2 adsorption and desorption rates and energy requirements, and (3) based on the experimental results, develop a conceptual process design to perform a preliminary economic assessment to evaluate the potential for DAC process cost reduction using the catalyzed sorbents. Amine doped solid sorbents are effective for DAC applications and can be regenerated by heat or by a combination of heat, steam, and vacuum. The best sorbent composition identified was polyethyleneimine (PEI) on fumed silica with 200 ppm ionic liquid catalyst. This sorbent formulation was shown to have a CO 2 breakthrough capacity twice that of the non-catalyzed sorbent, in laboratory tests with air at 75% relative humidity (RH). The CO 2 adsorption rate was also 40% higher than that of the non-catalyzed sorbent. This type of sorbents has the attributes required for lowering the overall cost of DAC with high CO 2 capacity and high rate of adsorption. The combination of an industrially utilized amine-based sorbent with a highly active catalyst to form a new class of materials for DAC provides a technically viable pathway for reducing the cost of DAC to <$100/tonne of CO 2 . Laboratory measurements show that the silica/PEI (polyethyleneimine) sorbents with 100 ppm of ionic liquid catalyst have almost 100% higher CO 2 cyclic capacity and 40% higher adsorption rate. Generally, CO 2 desorption occurred at higher temperatures with a rate of desorption 10 times faster than adsorption (which occurred at ambient conditions). Therefore, adsorption rate is a much more important factor in the cost of DAC because it is directly linked to the CAPEX of the total system and the cycle time (i.e., sorbent productivity in ton/day of CO 2 captured per unit volume of the air contactor). An initial process design, coupled with techno-economic analysis, based on optimal experimental results and preliminary resulting from structured sorbent testing, showed a path to lower the DAC cost from the current cost of over $200/tonne CO 2 to less than $100/tonne with a scale-up, mature state of the technology, with projected material and process improvements. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the catalyst in silica/PEI sorbents in enhancing sorbents’ CO 2 working capacity, in (a) increasing the rate of adsorption and desorption, and (b) in lowering the CAPEX and OPEX of the DAC system employing the ionic liquid catalyzed sorbents.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2005

Stellar Gyroscope for Determining Attitude of a Spacecraft

A paper introduces the concept of a stellar gyroscope, currently at an early stage of development, for determining the attitude or spin axis, and spin rate of a spacecraft. Like star trackers, which are commercially available, a stellar gyroscope would capture and process images of stars to determine the orientation of a spacecraft in celestial coordinates. Star trackers utilize chargecoupled devices as image detectors and are capable of tracking attitudes at spin rates of no more than a few degrees per second and update rates typically <5 Hz. In contrast, a stellar gyroscope would utilize an activepixel sensor as an image detector and would be capable of tracking attitude at a slew rate as high as 50 deg/s, with an update rate as high as 200 Hz. Moreover, a stellar gyroscope would be capable of measuring a slew rate up to 420 deg/s. Whereas a Sun sensor and a three-axis mechanical gyroscope are typically needed to complement a star tracker, a stellar gyroscope would function without them; consequently, the mass, power consumption, and mechanical complexity of an attitude-determination system could be reduced considerably.

Pain, Bedabrata↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification and validation process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study focuses on a validation of HEATNETS using results from TRNSYS. HEATNETS is not intended to replace other modeling tools, but this work demonstrates, via a comparison with an industry standard code, that HEATNETS can be a unique, high-level and rapid modeling tool for estimating the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Backup power or bill savings? How electricity tariffs impact residential solar-plus-storage usage in the United States

Adoption of paired solar-plus-storage systems has accelerated in recent years, driven by both the demand for backup power and a desire to manage utility bills. Tradeoffs between those two uses can arise through the reserve setting on the battery storage system, which serves to maintain a minimum state of charge in case of a power interruption. Our paper applies an economic framework to evaluate this tradeoff in terms of changes in bill savings and customer reliability value across reserve levels, considering how those tradeoffs depend on the underlying electricity rate structure and levels. The analysis is based on a representative set of load profiles, solar profiles, tariff designs, and stochastic power interruption events across ten different regions in the United States. We find that the opportunity cost of holding storage capacity in reserve, in terms of foregone bill reductions, outweighs any gains in reliability value from mitigated power interruptions in the majority of customer situations. Higher storage reserve levels increase total customer value only in specific circumstances, such as for customers with inferior reliability (10x average interruptions), with a very high value of lost load ($50/kWh), and with tariff or interconnection rules that disallow grid charging. However, even this result is dampened when considering tariff designs with higher price differentials that increase the opportunity cost of holding storage in reserve (e.g. import/export or time-of-use rates). Allowing grid charging in tariffs essentially eliminates the necessity to hold any storage in reserve in all sensitivity cases explored.

Electric resilience↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anisotropic strength behavior of single-crystal TATB

High-rate strength behavior plays an important role in the shock initiation of high explosives, with plastic deformation serving to localize heat into hot spots and as a mechanochemical means to enhance reactivity. Recent simulations predict that detonation-like shocks produce highly reactive nanoscale shear bands in the layered crystalline explosive TATB (1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene), but the thresholds leading to this response are poorly understood. We utilize molecular dynamics to simulate the high-rate compressive stress–strain response of TATB, with a focus on understanding flow behavior. Here, the dependence of strength on pressure and loading axis (crystal orientation) is explored. The deformation mechanisms fall broadly into two categories, with compression along crystal layers activating a buckling/twinning mode and compression normal to the layers producing nanoscale shear bands. Despite the complexity of the underlying mechanisms, the crystal exhibits relatively straightforward stress–strain curves. Most of the crystal orientations studied show rapid strain softening following the onset of yielding, which settles to a steady flow state. Trajectories are analyzed using five metrics for local states and structural order, but most of these metrics yield similar distributions for these deformation mechanisms. On the other hand, a recently proposed measure of intramolecular strain energy is found to most cleanly distinguish between these mechanisms, while also providing a plausible connection with mechanochemically accelerated decomposition kinetics. Localization of intramolecular strain energy is found to depend strongly on crystal orientation and pressure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1983

Moderate temperature rechargeable sodium batteries

Cells utilizing the organic electrolyte, NaI in triglyme, operated at approx. 130 C with Na(+) - intercalating cathodes. However, their rate and stability were inadequate. NaAlCl4 was found to be a highly useful electrolyte for cell operation at 165-190 C. Na(+) intercalating chalcogenides reacted with NaAlCl4 during cycling to form stable phases. Thus, VS2 became essentially VS2Cl, with reversible capacity of approx 2.8 e(-)/V, and a mid-discharge voltage of approx 2.5V and 100 deep discharge cycles were readily achieved. A positive electrode consisting of VCl3 and S plus NaAlCl4 was subjected to deep-discharge cycles 300 times and it demonstrated identity with the in-situ-formed BSxCly cathode. NiS2 and NiS which are not Na(+)-intercalating structures formed highly reversible electrodes in NaAlCl4. The indicated discharge mechanism implies a theoretical capacity 4e(-)/Ni for NiS2 and 2e(-)/Ni for NiS. The mid-discharge potentials are, respectively, 2.4V and 2.1V. A Na/NiS2 cell cycling at a C/5 rate has exceeded 500 deep discharge cycles with 2.5e(-)/Ni average utilization. A 4 A-hr nominal capacity prototype Na/NiS2 cell was tested at 190 C. It was voluntarily terminated after 80 cycles. Further development, particularly of cathode structure and hardware should produce a battery capable of at least 50-W-hr/lb and more than 1000 cycles.

Abraham, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Effects of High Temperature Overhead Conductors to Line Rating Variables

For traditional overhead transmission lines, the maximum allowable conductor operating temperature on ASCR, AAC, or AAAC lines for determining the static line ratings can be quite low, typically well under 100 C. At these low temperatures, the primary driver for determining static line ratings are assumptions made about the wind speed and direction and the ambient temperature. Assumptions for solar loading and emitted thermal radiation, driven by line emissivity and absorptivity, are secondary factors, and only provide small changes to the static ratings. However, when considering newer high temperature conductors such as ACSS, ACCR, ZTACIR, and ACCC® the maximum allowable conductor temperatures can be significantly higher, up to 250° C. This higher temperature shifts the importance of the emissivity assumptions of the overhead transmission line, due to the nature of the T4 dependence of the radiative heat loss compared to the T1 dependence of the convective heat loss, as well as shifting the dependency on local wind conditions. Typical assumptions in the United States for the emissivity/absorptivity of overhead transmission lines in determining the static ratings are to use a value of 0.5 for both parameters or set a value in the range of 0.7 to 0.9. Recent experimental tests at EPRI have shown that higher emissivity aging assumptions may not be valid in some regions of the US, and that actual values may be much lower (0.25-0.45) than older studies have predicted (0.8-0.9). Here, the assumptions of different US Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) and different utilities within RTOs are examined for the static ratings for traditional lower operating temperatures up to 100° C as well as with the higher maximum temperature conductors associated with newer conductor designs at 250° C. The sensitivity of the static ratings is examined at both lower and higher temperature conductors with respect to overhead line emissivity and absorptivity, wind speed, wind direction, and solar loading, and ambient temperature. It is shown that the effects of the conductor absorptivity, solar flux and ambient temperature on the static rating are increased when the transmission line has a lower maximum conductor temperature. The effects of the conductor emissivity, wind direction and wind speed have increased effects on the static rating when the transmission line has a higher maximum conductor temperature. In addition, example weather data is used to calculate the conductor temperature with different line emissivity and absorptivity assumptions. This shows the effect of assumptions made for emissivity only has a minor impact for low temperature lines, but for high temperature transmission lines can cause a 150-200° C temperature swing.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1986

A modern space simulation facility to accommodate high production acceptance testing

A space simulation laboratory that supports acceptance testing of spacecraft and associated subsystems at throughput rates as high as nine per year is discussed. The laboratory includes a computer operated 27' by 30' space simulation, a 20' by 20' by 20' thermal cycle chamber and an eight station thermal cycle/thermal vacuum test system. The design philosophy and unique features of each system are discussed. The development of operating procedures, test team requirements, test team integration, and other peripheral activation details are described. A discussion of special accommodations for the efficient utilization of the systems in support of high rate production is presented.

Glover, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

User's Manual for FOMOCO Utilities-Force and Moment Computation Tools for Overset Grids

In the numerical computations of flows around complex configurations, accurate calculations of force and moment coefficients for aerodynamic surfaces are required. When overset grid methods are used, the surfaces on which force and moment coefficients are sought typically consist of a collection of overlapping surface grids. Direct integration of flow quantities on the overlapping grids would result in the overlapped regions being counted more than once. The FOMOCO Utilities is a software package for computing flow coefficients (force, moment, and mass flow rate) on a collection of overset surfaces with accurate accounting of the overlapped zones. FOMOCO Utilities can be used in stand-alone mode or in conjunction with the Chimera overset grid compressible Navier-Stokes flow solver OVERFLOW. The software package consists of two modules corresponding to a two-step procedure: (1) hybrid surface grid generation (MIXSUR module), and (2) flow quantities integration (OVERINT module). Instructions on how to use this software package are described in this user's manual. Equations used in the flow coefficients calculation are given in Appendix A.

Chan, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Delay Tolerant Networking-Based Approach to a High Data Rate Architecture for Spacecraft

Historically, it has been the case that SWaP (Size, Weigh a lot, And consume Power) placed such severe constraints on radios that the links between spacecraft and the ground were relatively slow. This meant that the radio link was normally a significant bottleneck in returning scientific data. Over recent years, however, a combination of more efficient radio design, intelligent waveforms, and highly directed, high-frequency RF / optical systems have led to a rapid increase in the amount of data that can be pushed through radio and optical links. This has led to some cases where the radio links are capable of moving data much more quickly than the spacecraft and instruments are capable of actually generating it! In some instances, scientific data can therefore be lost not because the downlink is too slow to support the data rate, but instead because the spacecraft was not designed in a way that would let it fully utilize both the radio and the networking services available to it. The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project describes a packet-based approach to building modern, distributed spacecraft systems. It presents a means for spacecraft and other assets to participate in both present and future Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), while simultaneously ensuring that the asset is able to fully utilize the new, high-speed links that have been seeing more widespread development and deployment in recent years. With this in mind, this paper begins with a discussion regarding HiDRA's evolution. Next, it discusses the capabilities and limitations of NASA's present DTN-enabled networks. Of particular note is the way in which principles of network designate the terrestrial level (e.g., use of programmable networks / software-defined networks, separation between data and control plane, infusion of COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) Ethernet switch chips, etc.) can all be translated into the space environment as well. After this, the paper discusses the design and implementation of a present prototype reference implementation of High-Rate DTN (HDTN),which is intended to demonstrate future high-rate networking concepts as part of a coherent demonstration on the International Space Station (ISS). The goal, of both the research and of this implementation, is to help develop a ready-made toolbox of ideas, approaches, and examples from which mission designers can draw when putting together new missions. Assuming all goes as planned, this should not only work to reduce the cost of individual mission design, but also improve the rate at which science data can be returned for mission participants to review.

Hylton, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Resilience Planning in Distribution System Planning

Electric utilities, regulators, and stakeholders face increasing risks of severe storms, freezes, floods, and heat waves damaging grid infrastructure and causing power outages—and increasing risks of utility equipment igniting wildfires. At the same time, customer electricity rates have risen substantially in recent years, due in part to replacing aging infrastructure and improving resilience to natural hazards and physical threats. To address these challenges, utilities are beginning to move beyond traditional, siloed planning processes to balance resilience with other fundamental grid objectives such as affordability, reliability, safety, and serving new loads. This study presents a framework for states and utilities that want to advance integration of resilience and distribution planning processes to improve planning efficiency, better prioritize cost-effective grid expenditures, and balance planning objectives. The framework includes 7 key integration points between these planning processes: -Strategy process -Data -Threat assessments -Solution identification and prioritization -Optimization opportunities -Consideration of other grid needs -Metrics Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reviewed utility distribution system plans and interviewed subject matter experts to identify emerging practices for each of the 7 integration points. This report presents these practices, which can be used as a guide toward more holistic planning and cohesive investment strategies. It also includes 3 case studies to provide practical examples of how utilities apply such integrated planning processes: two pole hardening programs and one microgrid planning effort. The report concludes by identifying opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bi-Component Droplet Combustion in Reduced Gravity

This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground-based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting ground-based studies have been performed. Some of the most recent ground-based research is summarized.

Shaw, Benjamin D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Bi-Component Droplet Combustion in Reduced Gravity

This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced-gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in future flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting studies have been performed. Because of space limitations, only some of the research performed over the last two years (since the 5th Microgravity Combustion Workshop) is summarized here.

Shaw, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Bi-Component Droplet Combustion in Reduced Gravity

This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced-gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting ground-based studies have been performed. This ground-based research is summarized below.

Shaw, B. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heterogeneity in own-price residential customer demand elasticities for electricity under time-of-use rates: Evidence from a randomized-control trial in the United States

Regulators, policymakers, and stakeholders in several states have raised concerns about the price elasticity of residential customers’ electricity demand, especially as related to different customer subpopulations, management of critical end-uses, and enrollment approaches. This analysis sought to quantify the diversity of residential customer price elasticity in a time-of-use rate across these different dimensions using data generated from a utility pricing experiment. Finally, customers were found to be more elastic during the peak period of critical peak days, who were predicted to own and use air conditioning, and who volunteered for time-of-use (TOU) rates (but those defaulted on were 25% as elastic).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗