Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope: Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized space telescope scheduled for launch in 2011. This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal-optical, often referred to as STOP, analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to a structural finite element model in order to predict thermally induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are then input to optical models, and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or a linear optical analysis tool. In addition to baseline performance predictions, a process for performing sensitivity studies to assess modeling uncertainties is described.

Johnston, John D.↗

Development of the Surface Management System Integrated with CTAS Arrival Tools

The Surface Management System (SMS) developed by NASA Ames Research Center in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a decision support tool to help tower traffic coordinators and Ground/Local controllers in managing and controlling airport surface traffic in order to increase capacity, efficiency, and flexibility. SMS provides common situation awareness to personnel at various air traffic control facilities such as airport traffic control towers (ATCT s), airline ramp towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), and Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). SMS also provides a traffic management tool to assist ATCT traffic management coordinators (TMCs) in making decisions such as airport configuration and runway load balancing. The Build 1 of the SMS tool was installed and successfully tested at Memphis International Airport (MEM) and received high acceptance scores from ATCT controllers and coordinators, as well as airline ramp controllers. NASA Ames Research Center continues to develop SMS under NASA s Strategic Airspace Usage (SAU) project in order to improve its prediction accuracy and robustness under various modeling uncertainties. This paper reports the recent development effort performed by the NASA Ames Research Center: 1) integration of Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) capability with SMS and 2) an alternative approach to obtain airline gate information through a publicly available website. The preliminary analysis results performed on the air/surface traffic data at the DFW airport have shown significant improvement in predicting airport arrival demand and IN time at the gate. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development.

Jung, Yoon C.↗

Implementation Challenges for Multivariable Control: What You Did Not Learn in School

Multivariable control allows controller designs that can provide decoupled command tracking and robust performance in the presence of modeling uncertainties. Although the last two decades have seen extensive development of multivariable control theory and example applications to complex systems in software/hardware simulations, there are no production flying systems aircraft or spacecraft, that use multivariable control. This is because of the tremendous challenges associated with implementation of such multivariable control designs. Unfortunately, the curriculum in schools does not provide sufficient time to be able to provide an exposure to the students in such implementation challenges. The objective of this paper is to share the lessons learned by a practitioner of multivariable control in the process of applying some of the modern control theory to the Integrated Flight Propulsion Control (IFPC) design for an advanced Short Take-Off Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft simulation.

Garg, Sanjay↗

Jitter Test Program and On-Orbit Mitigation Strategies for Solar Dynamic Observatory

The Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) aims to study the Sun's influence on the Earth, the source, storage, and release of the solar energy, and the interior structure of the Sun. During science observations, the jitter stability at the instrument focal plane must be maintained to less than a fraction of an arcsecond for two of the SDO instruments. To meet these stringent requirements, a significant amount of analysis and test effort has been devoted to predicting the jitter induced from various disturbance sources. This paper presents an overview of the SDO jitter analysis approach and test effort performed to date. It emphasizes the disturbance modeling, verification, calibration, and validation of the high gain antenna stepping mechanism and the reaction wheels, which are the two largest jitter contributors. This paper also describes on-orbit mitigation strategies to protect the system from analysis model uncertainties. Lessons learned from the SDO jitter analyses and test programs are included in the paper to share the knowledge gained with the community.

Liu, Kuo-Chia↗

Scientific Objectives, Measurement Needs, and Challenges Motivating the PARAGON Aerosol Initiative

Aerosols are involved in a complex set of processes that operate across many spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these processes, and ensuring their accurate representation in models of transport, radiation transfer, and climate, requires knowledge of aerosol physical, chemical, and optical properties and the distributions of these properties in space and time. To derive aerosol climate forcing, aerosol optical and microphysical properties and their spatial and temporal distributions, and aerosol interactions with clouds, need to be understood. Such data are also required in conjunction with size-resolved chemical composition in order to evaluate chemical transport models and to distinguish natural and anthropogenic forcing. Other basic parameters needed for modeling the radiative influences of aerosols are surface reflectivity and three-dimensional cloud fields. This large suite of parameters mandates an integrated observing and modeling system of commensurate scope. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept, designed to meet this requirement, is motivated by the need to understand climate system sensitivity to changes in atmospheric constituents, to reduce climate model uncertainties, and to analyze diverse collections of data pertaining to aerosols. This paper highlights several challenges resulting from the complexity of the problem. Approaches for dealing with them are offered in the set of companion papers.

optical depth↗

Analysis and Design of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Systems

This paper describes the fundamental principles of launch vehicle flight control analysis and design. In particular, the classical concept of "drift-minimum" and "load-minimum" control principles is re-examined and its performance and stability robustness with respect to modeling uncertainties and a gimbal angle constraint is discussed. It is shown that an additional feedback of angle-of-attack or lateral acceleration can significantly improve the overall performance and robustness, especially in the presence of unexpected large wind disturbance. Non-minimum-phase structural filtering of "unstably interacting" bending modes of large flexible launch vehicles is also shown to be effective and robust.

Wie, Bong↗

Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing in Support of Launch Vehicle Loads and Controls Analysis

NASA has conducted dynamic tests on each major launch vehicle during the past 45 years. Each test provided invaluable data to correlate and correct analytical models. GVTs result in hardware changes to Saturn and Space Shuttle, ensuring crew and vehicle safety. Ares I IVGT will provide test data such as natural frequencies, mode shapes, and damping to support successful Ares I flights. Testing will support controls analysis by providing data to reduce model uncertainty. Value of testing proven by past launch vehicle successes and failures. Performing dynamic testing on Ares vehicles will provide confidence that the launch vehicles will be safe and successful in their missions.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

Use of Fuzzycones for Sun-Only Attitude Determination: THEMIS Becomes ARTEMIS

In order for two THEMIS probes to successfully transition to ARTEMIS it will be necessary to determine attitudes with moderate accuracy using Sun sensor data only. To accomplish this requirement, an implementation of the Fuzzycones maximum likelihood algorithm was developed. The effect of different measurement uncertainty models on Fuzzycones attitude accuracy was investigated and a bin-transition technique was introduced to improve attitude accuracy using data with uniform error distributions. The algorithm was tested with THEMIS data and in simulations. The analysis results show that the attitude requirements can be met using Fuzzycones and data containing two bin-transitions.

Hashmall, Joseph A.↗

Estimation of Faults in DC Electrical Power System

This paper demonstrates a novel optimization-based approach to estimating fault states in a DC power system. Potential faults changing the circuit topology are included along with faulty measurements. Our approach can be considered as a relaxation of the mixed estimation problem. We develop a linear model of the circuit and pose a convex problem for estimating the faults and other hidden states. A sparse fault vector solution is computed by using 11 regularization. The solution is computed reliably and efficiently, and gives accurate diagnostics on the faults. We demonstrate a real-time implementation of the approach for an instrumented electrical power system testbed, the ADAPT testbed at NASA ARC. The estimates are computed in milliseconds on a PC. The approach performs well despite unmodeled transients and other modeling uncertainties present in the system.

Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Multiple Adaptive Control Technologies for a Generic Transport Aircraft Simulation

Presented here is the evaluation of multiple adaptive control technologies for a generic transport aircraft simulation. For this study, seven model reference adaptive control (MRAC) based technologies were considered. Each technology was integrated into an identical dynamic-inversion control architecture and tuned using a methodology based on metrics and specific design requirements. Simulation tests were then performed to evaluate each technology s sensitivity to time-delay, flight condition, model uncertainty, and artificially induced cross-coupling. The resulting robustness and performance characteristics were used to identify potential strengths, weaknesses, and integration challenges of the individual adaptive control technologies

Campbell, Stefan F.↗

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Stell, Laurel↗

Predictability of Top of Descent Location for Operational Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the trajectory predictor and its uncertainty models, commercial flights executed idle-thrust descents at a specified descent speed, and the recorded data included the specified descent speed profile, aircraft weight, and the winds entered into the FMS as well as the radar data. The FMS computed the intended descent path assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and the controllers and pilots then endeavored to allow the FMS to fly the descent to the meter fix with minimal human intervention. The horizontal flight path, cruise and meter fix altitudes, and actual TOD location were extracted from the radar data. Using approximately 70 descents each in Boeing 757 and Airbus 319/320 aircraft, multiple regression estimated TOD location as a linear function of the available predictive factors. The cruise and meter fix altitudes, descent speed, and wind clearly improve goodness of fit. The aircraft weight improves fit for the Airbus descents but not for the B757. Except for a few statistical outliers, the residuals have absolute value less than 5 nmi. Thus, these predictive factors adequately explain the TOD location, which indicates the data do not include excessive noise.

Stell, Laurel L.↗

Robust Fault Detection and Isolation for Stochastic Systems

This paper outlines the formulation of a robust fault detection and isolation scheme that can precisely detect and isolate simultaneous actuator and sensor faults for uncertain linear stochastic systems. The given robust fault detection scheme based on the discontinuous robust observer approach would be able to distinguish between model uncertainties and actuator failures and therefore eliminate the problem of false alarms. Since the proposed approach involves precise reconstruction of sensor faults, it can also be used for sensor fault identification and the reconstruction of true outputs from faulty sensor outputs. Simulation results presented here validate the effectiveness of the robust fault detection and isolation system.

George, Jemin↗

An Early and Comprehensive Millimetre and Centimetre Wave and X-Ray Study of SN 2011dh: a Non-Equipartition Blast Wave Expanding into a Massive Stellar Wind

Only a handful of supernovae (SNe) have been studied in multiwavelengths from the radio to X-rays, starting a few days after the explosion. The early detection and classification of the nearby Type IIb SN 2011dh/PTF 11eon in M51 provides a unique opportunity to conduct such observations. We present detailed data obtained at one of the youngest phase ever of a core-collapse SN (days 3-12 after the explosion) in the radio, millimetre and X-rays; when combined with optical data, this allows us to explore the early evolution of the SN blast wave and its surroundings. Our analysis shows that the expanding SN shock wave does not exhibit equipartition (epsilon(sub e)/epsilon(sub B) approx. 1000), and is expanding into circumstellar material that is consistent with a density profile falling like R(exp −2). Within modelling uncertainties we find an average velocity of the fast parts of the ejecta of 15 000 +/- 1800 km/s, contrary to previous analysis. This velocity places SN 2011dh in an intermediate blast wave regime between the previously defined compact and extended SN Type IIb subtypes. Our results highlight the importance of early (approx.1 d) high-frequency observations of future events. Moreover, we show the importance of combined radio/X-ray observations for determining the microphysics ratio epsilon(sub e)/epsilon(sub B).

gamma rays↗

Accuracy Analysis and Validation of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Robotic Arm

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity Rover is currently exploring the surface of Mars with a suite of tools and instruments mounted to the end of a five degree-of-freedom robotic arm. To verify and meet a set of end-to-end system level accuracy requirements, a detailed positioning uncertainty model of the arm was developed and exercised over the arm operational workspace. Error sources at each link in the arm kinematic chain were estimated and their effects propagated to the tool frames.A rigorous test and measurement program was developed and implemented to collect data to characterize and calibrate the kinematic and stiffness parameters of the arm. Numerous absolute and relative accuracy and repeatability requirements were validated with a combination of analysis and test data extrapolated to the Mars gravity and thermal environment. Initial results of arm accuracy and repeatability on Mars demonstrate the effectiveness of the modeling and test program as the rover continues to explore the foothills of Mount Sharp.

rovers↗

Deep Space Network Scheduling Using Multi-Objective Optimization with Uncertainty

We have developed a novel technique to incorporate uncertainty modeling within an evolutionary algorithm approach to multi-objective scheduling, with the goal of identifying a Pareto frontier (tradeoff curve) that recognizes the likelihood of events that can impact the schedule outcome. Our approach is particularly applicable to the generation of multiobjective optimized robust schedules, where objectives are assigned a service level, for example that we require an objective value to be greater than or equal to X with Y% confidence. We have demonstrated that such an approach can, for example, minimize scheduling on less reliable resources, based solely on a resource reliability model and not on any ad hoc heuristics. We have also investigated an alternative method of optimizing for robustness, in which we add to the set of objectives a failure risk objective to minimize. We compare the advantages and disadvantages of these two approaches. Future plans for further developing this technology include its application to space-based observatory scheduling problems.

Johnston, Mark D.↗

Suited and Unsuited Hybrid III Impact Testing and Finite Element Model Characterization

NASA spacecraft design requirements for occupant protection are a combination of the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criteria and injury assessment reference values (IARV) extracted from anthropomorphic test devices (ATD). For the ATD IARVs, the requirements specify the use of the 5th percentile female Hybrid III and the 95th percentile male Hybrid III. Each of these ATDs is required to be fitted with an articulating pelvis (also known as the aerospace pelvis) and a straight spine. The articulating pelvis is necessary for the ATD to fit into spacecraft seats, while the straight spine is required as injury metrics for vertical accelerations are better defined for this configuration. Sled testing of the Hybrid III 5th Percentile Female Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) was performed at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WAPFB). Two 5th Percentile ATDs were tested, the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) and NASA owned Hybrid III ATDs with aerospace pelvises. Testing was also conducted with a NASA-owned 95th Percentile Male Hybrid III with aerospace pelvis at WPAFB. Testing was performed using an Orion seat prototype provided by Johnson Space Center (JSC). A 5-point harness comprised of 2 inch webbing was also provided by JSC. For suited runs, a small and extra-large Advanced Crew Escape System (ACES) suit and helmet were also provided by JSC. Impact vectors were combined frontal/spinal and rear/lateral. Some pure spinal and rear axis testing was also performed for model validation. Peak accelerations ranged between 15 and 20-g. This range was targeted because the ATD responses fell close to the IARV defined in the Human-Systems Integration Requirements (HSIR) document. Rise times varied between 70 and 110 ms to assess differences in ATD responses and model correlation for different impact energies. The purpose of the test series was to evaluate the Hybrid III ATD models in Orion-specific landing orientations both with and without a spacesuit. The results of these tests were used by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to validate the finite element model (FEM) of the Hybrid III 5th Percentile Female ATD. Physical test data was compared to analytical predictions from simulations, and modelling uncertainty factors have been determined for each injury metric. Additionally, the test data has been used to further improve the FEM, particularly in the areas of the ATD preload, harness, and suit and helmet effects.

Lawrence, C.↗

Systematic Comparison of Photoionized Plasma Codes with Application to Spectroscopic Studies of AGN in X-Rays

Atomic data and plasma models play a crucial role in the diagnosis and interpretation of astrophysical spectra, thus influencing our understanding of the Universe. In this investigation we present a systematic comparison of the leading photoionization codes to determine how much their intrinsic differences impact X-ray spectroscopic studies of hot plasmas in photoionization equilibrium. We carry out our computations using the Cloudy, SPEX, and XSTAR photoionization codes, and compare their derived thermal and ionization states for various ionizing spectral energy distributions. We examine the resulting absorption-line spectra from these codes for the case of ionized outflows in active galactic nuclei. By comparing the ionic abundances as a function of ionization parameter, we find that on average there is about 30 deviation between the codes in where ionic abundances peak. For H-like to B-like sequence ions alone, this deviation in is smaller at about 10 on average. The comparison of the absorption-line spectra in the X-ray band shows that there is on average about 30 deviation between the codes in the optical depth of the lines produced at log 1 to 2, reducing to about 20 deviation at log 3. We also simulate spectra of the ionized outflows with the current and upcoming high-resolution X-ray spectrometers, on board XMM-Newton, Chandra, Hitomi, and Athena. From these simulations we obtain the deviation on the best-fit model parameters, arising from the use of different photoionization codes, which is about 10 to40. We compare the modeling uncertainties with the observational uncertainties from the simulations. The results highlight the importance of continuous development and enhancement of photoionization codes for the upcoming era of X-ray astronomy with Athena.

plasmas – atomic processes – atomic data – t↗