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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Searching for beyond the Standard Model physics using the improved description of 100 Mo $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral shape with CUPID-Mo

The current experiments searching for neutrinoless double-β ($0\nu \beta \beta$) decay also collect large statistics of Standard Model allowed two-neutrino double-β ($2\nu \beta \beta$ ) decay events. These can be used to search for Beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics via $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral distortions. 100 Mo has a natural advantage due to its relatively short half-life, allowing higher $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay statistics at equal exposures compared to the other isotopes. We demonstrate the potential of the dual read-out bolometric technique exploiting a 100 Mo exposure of 1.47 kg years, acquired in the CUPID-Mo experiment at the Modane underground laboratory (France). We set limits on $0\nu \beta \beta$ decays with the emission of one or more Majorons, on $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay with Lorentz violation, and $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay with a sterile neutrino emission. In this analysis, we investigate the systematic uncertainty induced by modeling the $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral shape parameterized through an improved model, an effect never considered before. This work motivates searches for BSM processes in the upcoming CUPID experiment, which will collect the largest amount of $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay events among the next-generation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Origin of Matter (Final Scientific Report)

The research of this project was concerned with the matter content of the universe. The first topic we studied was the amount of CP violation in kaon decays into two pions; with a new analysis we decreased the theoretical uncertainty by more than an order of magnitude. This constitutes a milestone in our understanding of the matter-antimatter asymmetry among the known standard-model particles. Furthermore, we studied the energy scale dependence of the self-interactions of spinless dark matter for the first time. This allows to study the consistency of theoretical models for dark matter, and is an important ingredient in the interpretation of various dark matter experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

(U) Radiation Transport Sensitivity Capabilities Applicable to INRAD

Intrinsic radiation (INRAD) calculations involve calculating the neutron and gamma-ray source rate densities from given compositions and densities of materials and the subsequent transport of the neutrons and gamma rays to detectors that may be stood off or internal. Related problems deal with measures of subcritical multiplication, such as the k eff eigenvalue. Realistic estimates of the uncertainties in calculated INRAD results are desired. One approach to uncertainty quantification begins with sensitivity analysis. This report describes the present capabilities that XCP-7 can apply to compute sensitivities in INRAD problems and areas where work is needed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Reduced Order Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Climate Sciences

Several problems in earth system modeling are dependent on highly multiscale phenomena, such as turbulence, where computational modeling is challenging and expensive. This issue is exacerbated in atmospheric and oceanic domains, due to inherent high-dimensionality of the problem. One approach to this problem has been reduced order modeling (ROM); which aims to represent the key physics of the phenomena as a low-dimensional system. AI methods have huge potential in building accurate, stable ROMs and parameter estimation for these ROMs, as it requires extracting nonlinearities and patterns from simulation and/or observational data. Developing physics-based AI approaches specialized for the complexities of multiscale data, along with strategies to account for uncertainties, will revolutionize rapid modeling, analysis and decision making for earth system problems of practical interest.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Fish Exclusion and Passage Technologies for Hydropower

Hydropower represents a reliable source of renewable energy and accounts for approximately 7% of the total electrical generation in the United States. Future expansion of hydropower is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development projects or powering existing non-powered dams. For these new projects to be successful, careful analysis of risks, costs, and uncertainty to offset reduced power production as well as ensuring the protection and safe passage of migratory fish to gain public support, will be required. Exclusion and passage are two common approaches to protect fish from entrainment and impingement at hydropower facilities. The thresholds for entrainment risk and requirements for exclusion and passage often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders. While the costs associated with environmental mitigations represent a large proportion of the total costs required for the licensing of hydropower facilities, little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion and passage. Working with FOA awardee Natel Energy, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were tasked with assessing the capital construction costs for downstream fish exclusion and passage infrastructure. This report used keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction of additional cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening and passage from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 PM&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens, 142 pertaining to passage studies, and 26 pertaining to passage-related studies. PM&E measures associated with positive barrier screens represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with new stream development (NSD) projects. Results from these data indicate highly variable costs associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1 to 2 in.). Furthermore, estimated capital costs of passage infrastructure were positively related to the scale of the project based on installed capacity for some, but not all, types of passage. These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion and passage costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects. More data may still be available within the FERC eLibrary, but significant effort will be required to manually identify and extract the data for future analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cross Section and Beam Systematics for Future NOvA Sterile Neutrino Search

he NOvA (NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) experiment measures neutrino oscillations in a nearly pure muon (anti)neutrino beam over a 810 km baseline. We search for sterile neutrino driven oscillations in both neutral current (NC) and charged current (CC) muon neutrino samples. A deficit of NC interactions at the Far Detector could occur since sterile neutrinos do not couple to the Z boson. A modulation of the muon neutrino disappearance probability is possible due to a new mass splitting. The NuMI beam line is capable of running in forward or reverse horn current modes, which creates a neutrino or antineutrino beam, respectively. Samples collected in forward horn current (FHC) or reverse horn current (RHC) modes are subject to beam optics uncertainties, in addition to cross section and hadron production uncertainties. We explore the ategories. To tackle reduction of cross section uncertainties, we study how splitting the neutral current (NC) samples can impact the systematic reduction and its implications on oscillation parameters, leveraging results from Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we look at the possibility of using a $\nu$-on-e scattering sample. The $\nu$-on-e scattering process has minimal cross section uncertainties compared to that of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which can help constrain the overall flux normalizations. Using both the ZHC sample, NC split sample, and $\nu$-on-e scattering sample jointly with FHC samples would reduce the focusing uncertainties and the hadron production uncertainties in the future sterile analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Newest 3-Flavor Neutrino Oscillation Results from NOvA

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino experiment based at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory observing the appearance of electron (anti)neutrinos and disappearance of muon (anti) neutrinos. The experiment consists of two functionally identical liquid scintillator detectors; a 14 kton Far Detector is situated 810 km from the beam source, while a smaller Near Detector is only 1 km from the source and samples initial beam composition consisting of primarily muon (anti)neutrinos. Through these observations NOvA is probing outstanding questions in neutrino physics including the neutrino mass ordering and leptonic CP violation along with the θ23 neutrino mixing angle and the larger neutrino mass splitting Δm232. This talk will present the most recent neutrino oscillation results, which include a larger dataset, new analysis techniques, and updated systematic uncertainties.

Sutton, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

NOvA in 10 Minutes

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab, IL, USA, that observes $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_\mu\ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance oscillations from a beam of muon neutrinos (anti-neutrinos) provided by the Fermilab's NuMI beamline. The experiment consists of two functionally identical active liquid scintillattor tracking calorimeters, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The detectors are made out of extruded PVC cells arranged in alternating horizontal and vertical planes for 3-dimensional reconstruction of neutrino events. The NOvA experiment has a wide-ranging scientific program that includes studying standard 3-flavor neutrino oscillations, resolution of neutrino mass orderings, measuring the CP-violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$, beyond standard model (BSM) phenomenon such as non-standard interactions (NSI) and sterile neutrino searches, neutrino-nucleus cross-section measurements, exotics, astrophysics and more. The NOvA experiment leverages its identical detector technology to mitigate systematic uncertainties for its neutrino oscillation analysis. This talk will provide an overview of the experiment's detector design and the data-driven techniques used by the experiment in its neutrino oscillation analysis.

Choudhary, Brajesh [Delhi U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Approaches to the Inverse Problem

In this talk, I describe some recent ideas relating to the spectral reconstruction inverse problem, which arises frequently in lattice QCD calculations of inclusive hadronic quantities, and provide some physical context for this work. Particular emphasis is given to a new method for rigorously bounding uncertainties using techniques from complex analysis.

Jay, William [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog↗

DOE OSTI2020

Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China

High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C measurements and the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O astrophysical reaction rate

The 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction, an important component of stellar helium burning, has a key role in nuclear astrophysics. It has significant impact on the evolution and final state of heavy to low mass stars, maximum mass of stellar formed black holes and also shapes the elemental abundances resulting from nucleosynthesis in such stars. Providing a reliable estimate for the energy dependence of this reaction at stellar helium burning temperatures has been a longstanding and important goal. In this work, we study the role of potential new 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 measurements of the 16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C reaction in reducing the overall uncertainty in the astrophysical 𝑆 factor for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state capture extrapolated to a stellar energy of 300 keV. A multilevel 𝑅-matrix analysis is used to make extrapolations of the 𝑆 𝐸⁢1 (300 keV) and 𝑆 𝐸⁢2 (300 keV) factors for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction from existing ground state capture data. Bayesian analysis is used to quantify the uncertainties in the extrapolations for both the existing data alone and also when possible new experimental data are included. In particular, we consider a new experiment that would make use of a high-intensity low-energy electron beam that impinges on a windowless oxygen gas target as a means to determine the total 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state cross sections for this reaction. Here we find that the new data could significantly reduce the 𝑆⁡(300) uncertainties. Splitting the new data into high and low energy regions shows that both low and high energy data are effective in reducing the uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Flux Prediction

TRIMER, Transcription Regulation Integrated with MEtabolic Regulation, is a genome-scale modeling pipeline targeting at metabolic engineering applications. Using TRIMER, regulated metabolic reactions can be effectively predicted by integrative modeling of metabolic reactions with a Transcription Factor (TF)-gene regulatory network (TRN), which is modeled via a Bayesian network (BN). In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis of metabolic flux prediction for uncertainty quantification of BN structures for TRN modeling in TRIMER. We propose a computational strategy to construct the uncertainty class of TRN models based on the inferred regulatory order uncertainty given transcriptomic expression data. With that, we analyze the prediction sensitivity of the TRIMER pipeline for the metabolite yields of interest. The obtained sensitivity analyses can guide Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to help acquire new data that can enhance TRN modeling and achieve specific metabolic engineering objectives, including metabolite yield alterations. Here we have performed small- and large-scale simulated experiments, demonstrating the effectiveness of our developed sensitivity analysis strategy for BN structure learning to quantify the edge importance in terms of metabolic flux prediction uncertainty reduction and its potential to effectively guide OED.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Experiments to Optimal Cross-Section Adjustments

This paper presents the first application of model calibration to neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) experiments for cross-section optimization that is informed by adjoint-based sensitivity analysis (SA) and first-order uncertainty quantification (UQ). We summarize previous work on SA applied to NMC and describe notable modifications and additions. We give the procedure for first-order UQ and Bayesian-inference-based parameter estimation (PE). We then discuss model calibration applied to NMC of a 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium metal (the BeRP ball) with the nPod neutron multiplicity counter. For the BeRP ball in bare and polyethylene-reflected configurations, we discuss the sensitivity of the first- and second-moment detector responses (i.e., first and second moments of the NMC distribution, respectively) to the cross sections. We describe the sources of uncertainty in the measured and simulated responses. Specifically, uncertainty in the measured responses is due to both random and systematic sources. Uncertainty in the simulated responses is due to the cross-section covariances. We describe in detail the adjustment to the cross sections and cross-section covariances due to the optimization. Due to the contribution of systematic uncertainties to the measured response uncertainties, the adjustment to the cross sections is similar in trend but larger in magnitude compared to that recommended by previous work. We compare the measured responses to responses simulated with nominal and optimized cross sections, demonstrating that the best-estimate cross sections produce simulations of NMC experiments that are more accurate with reduced uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗