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NASA NTRS2024

Applications of ArcticDEM for measuring volcanic dynamics, landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and vegetation heights

Topographical changes are of fundamental interest to a wide range of Arctic science disciplines faced with the need to anticipate, monitor, and respond to the effects of climate change, including geohazard management, glaciology, hydrology, permafrost, and ecology. This study demonstrates several geomorphological, cryospheric, and biophysical applications of ArcticDEM – a large collection of publicly available, time-dependent digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Arctic. Our study illustrates ArcticDEM's applicability across different disciplines and five orders of magnitude of elevation derivatives, including measuring volcanic lava flows, ice cauldrons, post-failure landslides, retrogressive thaw slumps, snowdrifts, and tundra vegetation heights. We quantified surface elevation changes in different geological settings and conditions using the time series of ArcticDEM. Following the 2014–2015 Bárðarbunga eruption in Iceland, ArcticDEM analysis mapped the lava flow field, and revealed the post-eruptive ice flows and ice cauldron dynamics. The total dense-rock equivalent (DRE) volume of lava flows is estimated to be (1431 ± 2) million m 3 . Then, we present the aftermath of a landslide in Kinnikinnick, Alaska, yielding a total landslide volume of (400 ± 8) × 103 m 3 and a total area of 0.025 km 2 . ArcticDEM is further proven useful for studying retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). The ArcticDEM-mapped RTS profile is validated by ICESat-2 and drone photogrammetry resulting in a standard deviation of 0.5 m. Volume estimates for lake-side and hillslope RTSs range between 40,000 ± 9000 m 3 and 1,160,000 ± 85,000 m 3 , highlighting applicability across a range of RTS magnitudes. A case study for mapping tundra snow demonstrates ArcticDEM's potential for identifying high-accumulation, late-lying snow areas. The approach proves effective in quantifying relative snow accumulation rather than absolute values (standard deviation of 0.25 m, bias of −0.41 m, and a correlation coefficient of 0.69 with snow depth estimated by unmanned aerial systems photogrammetry). Furthermore, ArcticDEM data show its feasibility for estimating tundra vegetation heights with a standard deviation of 0.3 m (no bias) and a correlation up to 0.8 compared to the light detection and ranging (LiDAR). The demonstrated capabilities of ArcticDEM will pave the way for the broad and pan-Arctic use of this new data source for many disciplines, especially when combined with other imagery products. The wide range of signals embedded in ArcticDEM underscores the potential challenges in deciphering signals in regions affected by various geological processes and environmental influences.

Chunli Dai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparative Fatigue Lives of Rubber and PVC Wiper Cylindrical Coatings

Three coating materials for rotating cylindrical-coated wiping rollers were fatigue tested in 2 Intaglio printing presses. The coatings were a hard, cross-linked, plasticized PVC thermoset (P-series); a plasticized PVC (A-series); and a hard, nitryl rubber (R-series). Both 2- and 3-parameter Weibull analyses as well as a cost-benefit analysis were performed. The mean value of life for the R-series coating is 24 and 9 times longer than the P- and A-series coatings, respectively. Both the cost and replacement rate for the R-series coating was significantly less than those for the P- and A-series coatings. At a very high probability of survival the R-series coating is approximately 2 and 6 times the lives of the P- and A-series, respectively, before the first failure occurs. Where all coatings are run to failure, using the mean (life) time between removal (MTBR) for each coating to calculate the number of replacements and costs provides qualitatively similar results to those using a Weibull analysis.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic ray secular variations in terrestrial records and aurorae

The rediscovery that the Sun and the solar wind can undergo important changes on historical time scales has brought into question the stability of the cyclic behavior of past time series of solar and solar-terrestrial origin. It was found by Vector Fourier analysis that the solar 11 year cycle is present in the series of 10Be, delta 180, in ice cores and of thermoluminescence (TL) in sea sediments during the last Millennia with a frequency modulation, related to the Sun behavior, as tested by comparison with the Sunspot number R sub z series. It was shown that the cyclogram of the series of yearly Aurorae from 1721 to 1979 linear-regression-corrected-for-R sub z is straight for the periodicity zeta=11,1y, which indicates that such periodicity is constant in time corresponding to the only line present in the 11y band. The maxima of this component appear at the same time together with the high speed solar wind streams taking place in coronal holes situated in high heliolatitudes. It is evidenced that the 11 year cycle has undergone frequency oscillations on a time scale of two centuries, although it is very difficult to determine the periodicities with high accuracy.

Attolini, M. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Short Term Drought Impact in the Southwest US Using GOES-16 ABI Data

Satellite optical remote sensing has been often used for monitoring broad-region vegetation change, for example, phenology observations and the year-to-year leaf area index (LAI) responses to climate oscillations. However, rapid responses of vegetation to day-to-day weather perturbations are difficult to detect using available optical remote sensing satellites because of the low frequency of the observations. Sun-synchronous optical sensors, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), can observe a target area once a day. Daily observations cannot distinguish whether short-term changes in Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) are actual LAI change or cloud contamination. NOAA’s GOES satellites make observations every 10 to 15 minutes using the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). In this study, we used the Geostationary-NASA Earth Exchange (GeoNEX) L1G Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) ABI data to detect drought impact on NDVI time series in the Southwest US. We used an empirical method to cancel the BRDF effect of varying solar zenith angle. The ABI was able to detect short term drought impacts as well as an NDVI decrease in the dry season. Increased NDVI right after a rainfall followed by an immediate decrease was observed. These ABI NDVI changes were correlated with the RGB time series from PhenoCam Network data. Results indicated that the ABI can be used for short-term analysis of LAI and can detect small LAI changes caused by drought in an arid area, suggesting the potential for its use in near-real time drought monitoring applications.

ABI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-propagating structures and propagating waves in solar wind turbulence revealed by simulations and observations

Structures and waves are common features of solar wind turbulence at various scales. The interplay between structures and waves is important for processes such as the turbulent energy cascade, plasma heating, and particle scattering. Our understanding of turbulence has been advanced by not only new space missions and numerical simulations, but also techniques that have been developed to interpret the rapidly growing turbulence data. We review basic models of turbulence with a specific focus on the analysis methods for understanding magnetic structures and waves. MHD and kinetic waves in single-spacecraft time series measurements can be identified through mode decomposition or their characteristic polarization signatures. The structures in this paper are considered as zero-frequency, non-propagating or convected modes embedded in the solar wind. The synergy between observations and simulations is most evident in the application of spatial-temporal analysis to multi-spacecraft observation and turbulence simulations. The spatial-temporal analysis has greatly improved our understanding of structures and waves in turbulence. We conclude by discussing prospects for future research.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Spectral and correlation analysis with applications to middle-atmosphere radars

The correlation and spectral analysis methods for uniformly sampled stationary random signals, estimation of their spectral moments, and problems arising due to nonstationary are reviewed. Some of these methods are already in routine use in atmospheric radar experiments. Other methods based on the maximum entropy principle and time series models have been used in analyzing data, but are just beginning to receive attention in the analysis of radar signals. These methods are also briefly discussed.

Rastogi, Prabhat K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Smoothing Error in SBUV Profile and Total Ozone Retrieval

Data from the Nimbus-4, Nimbus-7 Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) and seven of the NOAA series of SBUV/2 instruments spanning 41 years are being reprocessed using V8.6 algorithm. The data are scheduled to be released by the end of August 2011. An important focus of the new algorithm is to estimate various sources of errors in the SBUV profiles and total ozone retrievals. We discuss here the smoothing errors that describe the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system can not measure. The SBUV(/2) instruments have a vertical resolution of 5 km in the middle stratosphere, decreasing to 8 to 10 km below the ozone peak and above 0.5 hPa. To estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm, the actual statistics of the fine vertical structure of ozone profiles must be known. The covariance matrix of the ensemble of measured ozone profiles with the high vertical resolution would be a formal representation of the actual ozone variability. We merged the MLS (version 3) and sonde ozone profiles to calculate the covariance matrix, which in general case, for single profile retrieval, might be a function of the latitude and month. Using the averaging kernels of the SBUV(/2) measurements and calculated total covariance matrix one can estimate the smoothing errors for the SBUV ozone profiles. A method to estimate the smoothing effect of the SBUV algorithm is described and the covariance matrixes and averaging kernels are provided along with the SBUV(/2) ozone profiles. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. The analysis of the smoothing errors, based on the SBUV(/2) monthly zonal mean time series, shows that the largest smoothing errors were detected in the troposphere and might be as large as 15-20% and rapidly decrease with the altitude. In the stratosphere above 40 hPa the smoothing errors are less than 5% and between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors are on the order of 1%. We validate our estimated smoothing errors by comparing the SBUV ozone profiles with other ozone profiling sensors.

Kramarova, N. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinguishing time clustering of astrophysical bursts

Many astrophysical bursts can recur, and their time series structure or pattern could be closely tied to the emission and system physics. While analysis of periodic events is well established, some sources, e.g., some fast radio bursts and soft gamma-ray emitters, are suspected of more subtle and less explored periodic windowed behavior: the bursts themselves are not periodic, but the activity only occurs during periodic windows. Here, we focus on distinguishing periodic windowed behavior from merely clustered events through time clustering analysis, using techniques analogous to spatial clustering, demonstrating methods for identifying and characterizing the behavior. An important aspect is accounting for the “curious incident of the dog in the night time”—lack of bursts carries information. As a worked example, we analyze six years of data from the soft gamma repeater SGR 1935 + 2154 , deriving a window period of 231 days and 55% duty cycle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Crane, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗
NASA NTRS2004

Estimations of the Global Distribution and Time Series of UV Noontime Irradiance (305, 310, 324, 380 nm, and Erythemal) from TOMS and SeaWiFS Data

The amount of UV irradiance reaching the Earth's surface is estimated from the measured cloud reflectivity, ozone, aerosol amounts, and surface reflectivity time series from 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 to estimate changes that have occurred over a 21-year period. Recent analysis of the TOMS data shows that there has been an apparent increase in reflectivity (decrease in W) in the Southern Hemisphere that is related to a calibration error in EP-TOMS. Data from the well-calibrated SeaWiFS satellite instrument have been used to correct the EP-TOMS reflectivity and UV time series. After correction, some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. In addition to correcting the EP-TOMS radiance calibration, the use of SeaWiFS cloud data permits estimation of UV irradiance at higher spatial resolution (1 to 4 km) than is available from TOMS (100 km) under the assumption that ozone is slowly varying over a scale of 100 km. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America with a corresponding increase in UV and a decrease in UV irradiance near Antarctica.

Herman, J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Host Galaxy Photometric Redshifts to Improve Cosmological Constraints with Type Ia Supernovae in the LSST Era

We perform a rigorous cosmology analysis on simulated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and evaluate the improvement from including photometric host galaxy redshifts compared to using only the "z spec " subset with spectroscopic redshifts from the host or SN. We use the Deep Drilling Fields (~50 deg 2 ) from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) in combination with a low-z sample based on Data Challenge2. The analysis includes light-curve fitting to standardize the SN brightness, a high-statistics simulation to obtain a bias-corrected Hubble diagram, a statistical+systematics covariance matrix including calibration and photo-z uncertainties, and cosmology fitting with a prior from the cosmic microwave background. Compared to using the z spec subset, including events with SN+host photo-z results in (i) more precise distances for z > 0.5, (ii) a Hubble diagram that extends 0.3 further in redshift, and (iii) a 50% increase in the Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit (FoM) based on the w 0 w a CDM model. Analyzing 25 simulated data samples, the average bias on w 0 and w a is consistent with zero. The host photo-z systematic of 0.01 reduces FoM by only 2% because (i) most z < 0.5 events are in the z spec subset, (ii) the combined SN+host photo-z has ×2 smaller bias, and (iii) the anticorrelation between fitted redshift and color self-corrects distance errors. To prepare for analyzing real data, the next SN Ia cosmology analysis with photo-zs should include non–SN Ia contamination and host galaxy misassociations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Literature review of some selected types of results and statistical analyses of total-ozone data

The depletion of ozone in the stratosphere is examined, and causes for the depletion are cited. Ground station and satellite measurements of ozone, which are taken on a worldwide basis, are discussed. Instruments used in ozone measurement are discussed, such as the Dobson spectrophotometer, which is credited with providing the longest and most extensive series of observations for ground based observation of stratospheric ozone. Other ground based instruments used to measure ozone are also discussed. The statistical differences of ground based measurements of ozone from these different instruments are compared to each other, and to satellite measurements. Mathematical methods (i.e., trend analysis or linear regression analysis) of analyzing the variability of ozone concentration with respect to time and lattitude are described. Various time series models which can be employed in accounting for ozone concentration variability are examined.

Myers, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Newly found evidence of Sun-climate relationships

Solar radiation cycles drive climatic changes intercyclically. These interdecadal changes were detected as variations in solar total irradiances over the time period of recorded global surface-air-temperature (SAT) and have been restored utilizing Earth Radiation Budget Channel 10C measurements (1978-1990), Greenwich Observatory faculae data (1874-1975), and Taipei Observatory Active Region data (1964-1991). Analysis of the two separate events was carried out by treating each as a discrete time series determined by the length of each solar cycle. The results show that the global SAT responded closely to the input of solar cyclical activities, S, with a quantitative relation of T = 1.62 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. This correlation peaks at 0.71 with a built-in time lag of 32 months in temperature response. Solar forcing in interannual time scale was also detected and the derived relationship of T = 0.17 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was observed. Our analysis shows derived climate sensitivities approximately fit the theoretical feedback slope, 4T(sup 3).

Kim, Hongsuk H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗