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At least 721 records · Page 40

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Artificial High-Transition Temperature Superconductors

In this work, we have used the well-understood quantum Hall (QH) stripes in high quality two-dimensional electron gases to mimic charge stripes in high transition temperature (Tc) superconductors. The science question we want to address is “Can QH stripes mimic high Tc superconductor stripes and provide a controlled experimental setup to pin-down the role of stripes in high Tc superconductivity?”. We have observed anomalous superconducting transition like behavior in GaAs double quantum well systems (DQWs) when each quantum well (QW) is tuned to the charge stripe states but with different Landau level fillings. Furthermore, we have shown that the transition like behavior is sharper in the DQWs when the two QWs are more strongly coupled. Our results suggest, for the first time, experimental evidence of the paired charge stripes model, which might lead to room-temperature superconductors that have enormously wide applications in computing, energy, and transportation industries. Advancing the science of high transition temperature superconductivity will have a profound impact in advancing energy technologies, ranging from the next generation microchips, new energy transfer grid to public transportation, and thus is important to nation’s energy security and relevant across the landscape of many mission spaces. Sandia has been a leader in materials science research and development. The proposed research takes advantage of Sandia’s state-ofthe-art MBE facilities at the Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) and utilizes Sandia’s extensive advanced materials characterization resources. We envision a significant impact on the nation’s energy research and security challenges by investing in this research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparison of Energy Storage and Arbitrage Options for Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the most reliable source of clean energy and plays a crucial role in decarbonization efforts and national energy security. Achievement of Net-Zero targets depends on the deployment of new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) – both advanced reactors and large-scale Light-Water Reactors (LWRs) – as well as continuing operations at existing LWR plants. The Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program seeks to extend the lifetime of existing NPPs and improve their economic performance through research into plant modernization, Flexible Plant Operation and Generation (FPOG), risk-informed systems analysis, materials research, and physical security. The FPOG pathway investigates alternative revenue streams for LWRs. When electricity prices are driven low by an oversupply of renewable energy, steam and electricity from an NPP can be used to make value-added products while taking advantage of the low energy price; alternatively, this cheap energy can be stored chemically, electrically, or thermally, and used to regenerate-generate electricity at a later time when energy demand, and therefore the wholesale price of electricity, is higher in an economic concept called arbitrage. The purpose of this report is to investigate energy storage technologies that can store 500 MW of electricity from an LWR for a wide spectrum of durations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

New Experiments for Detecting Emissions from Fission

Ensuring that nuclear science and technology is used solely for peaceful purposes is one of the most pressing challenges facing our society. The Consortium for Monitoring, Technology, and Verification (MTV) mission is to help meet this challenge by providing advanced technology and trained talent for careers in nuclear security and nonproliferation. The study of nuclear fission is one area of interest in the MTV. We are performing new experiments for the characterization of neutron and gamma ray emissions from fission fragments. These emissions are signatures for the detection and characterization of nuclear materials. To perform these experiments, we have developed Fission Sphere (FS-3), an array of forty organic stilbene detectors operated in time-coincidence. The FS-3 is used to measure the prompt emissions of neutrons and gamma rays from Cf-252 spontaneous fission. These new data will be used to validate physics-based prediction codes, including CGMF and FREYA, and will be useful in future ENDF and ENSDF evaluations. This paper will present results from the first experiments using FS-3 and a Cf-252 spontaneous fission source. It will compare the experimental results with predictions from theory and Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we will describe the correlations among energy, multiplicity, and angles of emitted particles. We will also discuss the application of these correlations in multiplicity counting techniques, which are widely used in nuclear safeguards.

Pozzi, S. A.↗

Automated Adversary-in-the-Loop Cyber-Physical Defense Planning

Security of cyber-physical systems (CPS) continues to pose new challenges due to the tight integration and operational complexity of the cyber and physical components. To address these challenges, this article presents a domain-aware, optimization-based approach to determine an effective defense strategy for CPS in an automated fashion—by emulating a strategic adversary in the loop that exploits system vulnerabilities, interconnection of the CPS, and the dynamics of the physical components. Our approach builds on an adversarial decision-making model based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that determines the optimal cyber (discrete) and physical (continuous) attack actions over a CPS attack graph. The defense planning problem is modeled as a non-zero-sum game between the adversary and defender. We use a model-free reinforcement learning method to solve the adversary’s problem as a function of the defense strategy. We then employ Bayesian optimization (BO) to find an approximate best-response for the defender to harden the network against the resulting adversary policy. This process is iterated multiple times to improve the strategy for both players. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a ransomware-inspired graph with a smart building system as the physical process. Numerical studies show that our method converges to a Nash equilibrium for various defender-specific costs of network hardening.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigating Vegetation Responses to Underground Nuclear Explosions Through Integrated Analyses

Vegetation has the potential to respond to underground nuclear explosions, yet these links have not been fully explored. Given the lack of previously described signatures, the changes in vegetation are possibly subtle. The integration of multiple different data streams is potentially a useful approach to improve signal detection. Here, we investigate whether semi-arid vegetation growth patterns responded to eight legacy underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada, USA. We tested for spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover, tree growth patterns, and tree leaf spectral properties using ground-based measurements, including those from tree-rings and hyperspectral surface vegetation reflectance, as well as space-based measurements of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat. Multiple data streams suggest a localized (<1.2 km) spatial pattern whereby tree growth is enhanced closer to the source of the underground test relative to sites further away. We also observed a more regional (>1.2–9 km) pattern whereby tree growth is suppressed coincident with a drought beginning 1 year before the 1989 tests, but continuing in the 5 years following the tests, which is anomalous relative to what is expected based on the response of tree growth to previous droughts. furthermore, quantification of the relative effects of the tests on vegetation remains a challenge due to the coincident drought and the potential for other disturbances to have impacted tree growth at this time, but the integration of these data reveals a more nuanced growth response than any other one data set indicates alone.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cyber-Physical Smart Light Control System Integration with Smart Grid using Zigbee

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop cyber-physical system architecture design to monitor and control smart lights connected to the active distribution grid. The architecture uses Zigbee-based (IEEE 802.15.4) wireless sensor networks and publish-subscribe architecture to exchange monitoring and control signals between smart-light actuators (SLAs) and a smart-light central controller (SLCC). Each SLA integrated into a smart light consists of a Zigbee-based endpoint module to send and receive signals to and from the SLCC. The SLCC consists of a Zigbee-based coordinator module, which further exchanges the monitoring and control signals with the active distribution management system over the TCP/IP communication network. The monitoring signals from the SLAs include light status, brightness level, voltage, current, and power data, whereas, the control signals to the SLAs include light intensity, turn ON, turn OFF, standby, and default settings. We have used our existing hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) cyber-physical system (CPS) security SCADA testbed to process signals received from the SLCC and respond suitable control signals based on the smart light schedule requirements, system operation, and active distribution grid dynamic characteristics. We have integrated the proposed cyber-physical smart light control system (CPSLCS) testbed to our existing HIL CPS SCADA testbed. We use the integrated testbed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm by real-time performance and latency between the SLCC and SLAs. The experiments demonstrated significant results by 100% realtime performance and low latency while exchanging data between the SLCC and SLAs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep Learning for Full Waveform Inversion of Elastic Active-Source Seismic Data to Estimate P-Wave Velocity Models

Seismic imaging methods are critical for Global Security and Energy & Homeland Security missions and activities that rely on subsurface characterization, but traditional methods remain computationally expensive and require significant labor hours and expertise to execute. Within the past few years, machine learning (ML), namely deep learning (DL), has been used to develop data-driven end-to-end full waveform inversion (FWI) methods to estimate 2D P-wave velocity (Vp) models in a fraction of the time as conventional FWI. These methods, however, are trained on simplistic acoustic wave seismic data and Vp models that are not realistic nor representative of real-world observations, leaving a large gap between the state-of-the-art and deployable, feasible, and practical DL FWI methods. Here, we generate a synthetic active-source, 3D, elastic wave seismic data set and a variety of Vp models with realistic geologic structure for training DL FWI methods. We evaluate six different methods that have performed well for acoustic DL FWI or medical imaging tasks using our more realistic dataset. We find that these six trained models do not match the performance of published acoustic end-to-end DL FWI methods, indicating more training data may be needed, physics may need to be incorporated to achieve good accuracy at the sacrifice of the end-to-end advantage, and/or novel methods need to be developed to enable end-to-end DL FWI methods to perform well for real-world seismic data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Real-time time-dependent density functional theory in Quantum Espresso and related codes

A set of subroutines that interact with an existing computer program, Quantum Espresso (QE), that takes a set of electronic orbitals from QE and propagates them forward in time in response to a number of perturbations. These perturbations include the motion of ions and a wide spectrum of applied electromagnetic fields (e.g., static magnetic fields, slowly-varying electric fields, x-rays, etc.). From the time evolution of the electronic orbitals comes time-varying values of physical observables like the electronic charge and current densities and atomic forces. These are further post-processed to yield properties of interest like stopping powers, conductivities, and the dynamic structure factor. The electronic orbitals are described in a plane wave basis and the equations of motion are carried out using a unitary or approximately unitary time propagation algorithm. Related work will include subroutines for interfacing this capability, as well as others that already exist within QE, with a fork of QE that is more extensible and modular.SAND2019-12611 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Baczewski, Andrew↗

Development of a Multi-Sensor Data Science System Used for Signature Development on Solvent Extraction Processes in support of safeguards- an overview

A new nuclear fuel cycle test bed is being built at Idaho National Laboratory to support the purification of special nuclear material recovered from used fuel. The test bed provides an opportunity to research process flow and the application of computational tools in solvent extraction processes. A deeper understanding of process and equipment behavior coupled with real time data collection can indicate whether a process failure is accidental or purposeful. The goal of this project is to develop a system that utilizes non-traditional measurement sources such as vibration, acoustics, current, light, flow, and temperature in conjunction with data-based, machine learning techniques that will allow for signal discovery. This multi-sensor data can support the development of safeguards by design and security by design measures for such a facility. Additionally, it can aid in early detection and identification of removed materials indicating diversion, which is essential for initiating material recovery and actor identification. This overview encompasses the current research and testing of sensors to develop a spectrum of process signatures. To be followed by planned experiments aimed to characterize said signatures and study potential feature extraction techniques to identify a fault in the system (i.e. flow diversion).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DESIGN & DEVELOPMENT OF A SECURE SELF-LEVELING WIRELESS RECHARGING PLATFORM FOR AN AERIAL DRONE ON AN UNMANNED SURFACE VESSEL

The Design and Development of an automated recharging station for an aerial drone, onboard a small, unmanned surface vessel, is described. Drones require a landing surface that is level within five degrees of the surrounding terrain for repeated reliable landing and takeoff. System constraints and at-sea application necessitate a compact, lightweight, and secure solution. A passive self-leveling platform and an accompanying automated parallel-pusher drone restraint mechanism have been designed and fabricated to aid in achieving a level landing surface and holding the drone in place while it charges. The self-leveling mechanism has been analyzed and subjected to initial laboratory tests. The testing of the drone restraint mechanism to verify its weight capacity and closing time, and the integration of the platform with a custom conductive contact wireless charging pad are identified as future work. The resulting cohesive unit will be tested for performance optimization and implementation onboard the unmanned surface vehicle.

McKinney, Adriana↗

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Operational Resilience Metric for Modern Power Distribution Systems

The electrical power system is the backbone of our nations critical infrastructure. It has been designed to withstand single component failures based on a set of reliability metrics which have proven acceptable during normal operating conditions. However, in recent years there has been an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Many have resulted in widespread long-term power outages, proving reliability metrics alone do not provide adequate energy security. As a result, researchers have focused their efforts on a new set of metrics based on the concept of resilience to ensure efficient operation of power systems during extreme events. A resilient system has the ability to resist, adapt, and recover from disruptions. Therefore, resilience has demonstrated itself as a promising concept for currently faced challenges in power distribution systems. In this work, we propose a real-time resilience metric for modern power distribution systems. The metric is an aggregation of the controllable assets adaptive capacity, or their temporal flexibility in real and reactive power. This metric gives information to the magnitude and duration of a disturbance which the system can respond to without having to drop loads or have stability issues in voltage or frequency. We demonstrate the impact to resilience in a case study under normal operation and during a power contingency on a microgrid. In the future, this information can be used by operators to make more informed decisions based on system resilience in an effort to prevent power outages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

HiFiPDV2 v. 2

SAND2024-01061O The HiFiPDV-2 software is similar to other photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) analysis codes in that it converts signals from intensity-time space to frequency-time space using a short-time Fourier transform (STFT). It then analyzes peaks of the resulting power spectral density information to extract the velocity-time history. The unique aspects of HiFiPDV and HiFiPDV-2 are that this reduction process is repeated for an array of reasonable STFT input variables. The resulting population distribution of output velocity-time histories is evaluated to determine the most likely velocity history and its associated uncertainty. This uncertainty is defined as the systematic uncertainty of the PDV signal as it is a function of input values to the reduction process. The HiFiPDV-2 program brings new functionality and efficiency to these calculations—most notably significant reductions in memory usage and calculation times, the ability to evaluate frequency-shifted signals, and the ability to filter out baseline signals. Developers recommend that users have at least 2 GB of RAM per CPU core in their system. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Voorhees, Travis↗

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗