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At least 721 records · Page 40

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Isotopic Ordering in Atmospheric O2 as a Tracer of Ozone Photochemistry and the Tropical Atmosphere

The distribution of isotopes within O2 molecules can be rapidly altered when they react with atomic oxygen. This mechanism is globally important: while other contributions to the global budget of O2 impart isotopic signatures, the O(3P) + O2 reaction resets all such signatures in the atmosphere on subdecadal timescales. Consequently, the isotopic distribution within O2 is determined by O3 photochemistry and the circulation patterns that control where that photochemistry occurs. The variability of isotopic ordering in O2 has not been established, however. We present new measurements of 18O18O in air (reported as delta36 values) from the surface to 33 km altitude. They confirm the basic features of the clumped-isotope budget of O2: Stratospheric air has higher delta36 values than tropospheric air (i.e., more 18O18O), reflecting colder temperatures and fast photochemical cycling of O3. Lower delta36 values in the troposphere arise from photochemistry at warmer temperatures balanced by the influx of high-delta36 air from the stratosphere. These observations agree with predictions derived from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which provides additional insight. We find a link between tropical circulation patterns and regions where delta36 values are reset in the troposphere. The dynamics of these regions influences lapse rates, vertical and horizontal patterns of O2 reordering, and thus the isotopic distribution toward which O2 is driven in the troposphere. Temporal variations in delta36 values at the surface should therefore reflect changes in tropospheric temperatures, photochemistry, and circulation. Our results suggest that the tropospheric O3 burden has remained within a +/-10 percent range since 1978.

oxygen↗

Circuit for Driving Piezoelectric Transducers

The figure schematically depicts an oscillator circuit for driving a piezoelectric transducer to excite vibrations in a mechanical structure. The circuit was designed and built to satisfy application-specific requirements to drive a selected one of 16 such transducers at a regulated amplitude and frequency chosen to optimize the amount of work performed by the transducer and to compensate for both (1) temporal variations of the resonance frequency and damping time of each transducer and (2) initially unknown differences among the resonance frequencies and damping times of different transducers. In other words, the circuit is designed to adjust itself to optimize the performance of whichever transducer is selected at any given time. The basic design concept may be adaptable to other applications that involve the use of piezoelectric transducers in ultrasonic cleaners and other apparatuses in which high-frequency mechanical drives are utilized. This circuit includes three resistor-capacitor networks that, together with the selected piezoelectric transducer, constitute a band-pass filter having a peak response at a frequency of about 2 kHz, which is approximately the resonance frequency of the piezoelectric transducers. Gain for generating oscillations is provided by a power hybrid operational amplifier (U1). A junction field-effect transistor (Q1) in combination with a resistor (R4) is used as a voltage-variable resistor to control the magnitude of the oscillation. The voltage-variable resistor is part of a feedback control loop: Part of the output of the oscillator is rectified and filtered for use as a slow negative feedback to the gate of Q1 to keep the output amplitude constant. The response of this control loop is much slower than 2 kHz and, therefore, does not introduce significant distortion of the oscillator output, which is a fairly clean sine wave. The positive AC feedback needed to sustain oscillations is derived from sampling the current through the piezoelectric transducer. This positive AC feedback, in combination with the slow feedback to the voltage-variable resistors, causes the overall loop gain to be just large enough to keep the oscillator running. The positive feedback loop includes two 16-channel multiplexers, which are not shown in the figure. One multiplexer is used to select the desired piezoelectric transducer. The other multiplexer, which is provided for use in the event that there are significant differences among the damping times of the 16 piezoelectric transducers, facilitates changing the value of one of the resistors in the positive-feedback loop to accommodate the damping time of the selected transducer.

Randall, David P.↗

Receptivity in parallel flows: An adjoint approach

Linear receptivity studies in parallel flows are aimed at understanding how external forcing couples to the natural unstable motions which a flow can support. The vibrating ribbon problem models the original Schubauer and Skramstad boundary layer experiment and represents the classic boundary layer receptivity problem. The process by which disturbances are initiated in convectively-unstable jets and shear layers has also received attention. Gaster was the first to handle the boundary layer analysis with the recognition that spatial modes, rather than temporal modes, were relevant when studying convectively-unstable flows that are driven by a time-harmonic source. The amplitude of the least stable spatial mode, far downstream of the source, is related to the source strength by a coupling coefficient. The determination of this coefficient is at the heart of this type of linear receptivity study. The first objective of the present study was to determine whether the various wave number derivative factors, appearing in the coupling coefficients for linear receptivity problems, could be reexpressed in a simpler form involving adjoint eigensolutions. Secondly, it was hoped that the general nature of this simplification could be shown; indeed, a rather elegant characterization of the receptivity properties of spatial instabilities does emerge. The analysis is quite distinct from the usual Fourier-inversion procedures, although a detailed knowledge of the spectrum of the Orr-Sommerfeld equation is still required. Since the cylinder wake analysis proved very useful in addressing control considerations, the final objective was to provide a foundation upon which boundary layer control theory may be developed.

Hill, D. Christopher↗

Land Surface Microwave Emissivities Derived from AMSR-E and MODIS Measurements with Advanced Quality Control

A microwave emissivity database has been developed with data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) and with ancillary land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the same Aqua spacecraft. The primary intended application of the database is to provide surface emissivity constraints in atmospheric and surface property retrieval or assimilation. An additional application is to serve as a dynamic indicator of land surface properties relevant to climate change monitoring. The precision of the emissivity data is estimated to be significantly better than in prior databases from other sensors due to the precise collocation with high-quality MODIS LST data and due to the quality control features of our data analysis system. The accuracy of the emissivities in deserts and semi-arid regions is enhanced by applying, in those regions, a version of the emissivity retrieval algorithm that accounts for the penetration of microwave radiation through dry soil with diurnally varying vertical temperature gradients. These results suggest that this penetration effect is more widespread and more significant to interpretation of passive microwave measurements than had been previously established. Emissivity coverage in areas where persistent cloudiness interferes with the availability of MODIS LST data is achieved using a classification-based method to spread emissivity data from less-cloudy areas that have similar microwave surface properties. Evaluations and analyses of the emissivity products over homogeneous snow-free areas are presented, including application to retrieval of soil temperature profiles. Spatial inhomogeneities are the largest in the vicinity of large water bodies due to the large water/land emissivity contrast and give rise to large apparent temporal variability in the retrieved emissivities when satellite footprint locations vary over time. This issue will be dealt with in the future by including a water fraction correction. Also note that current reliance on the MODIS day-night algorithm as a source of LST limits the coverage of the database in the Polar Regions. We will consider relaxing the current restriction as part of future development.

Moncet, Jean-Luc↗

Isotopic Evidence for the Source and Fate of Phosphorus in Everglades Wetland Ecosystems

Phosphorus has historically been a limiting nutrient in the Florida Everglades. Increased P loading to the Everglades over the past several decades has led to significant changes in water quality and plant communities. Stormwater runoff that drains agricultural lands and enters the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) are known to contain elevated levels of P, but the exact source of this P has not been fully determined. Here the results of an O isotope study of dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) in both polluted and relatively pristine (or reference) areas of the Everglades are reported. The data reveal spatial and temporal variations in the delta 18O signature of DIP, reflecting the source and the degree of cycling of P. The delta 18O values of DIP collected from the Everglades National Park were close or equal to the predicted delta 18O values of DIP formed in situ in equilibrium with ambient water, indicating that P is quickly cycled in the water column in oligotrophic ecosystems with very low P concentrations. However, most DIP samples collected from areas impacted by agricultural runoff yielded delta 18O values that deviated from the predicted equilibrium DIP delta 18O values based on the delta 18O of water and water temperature, suggesting that biological cycling of P was not rapid enough to remove the fertilizer ?18O signature in the DIP pool from areas receiving high P loading. The delta 18O signature of DIP in impacted areas reflects a mixing of fertilizer P and biologically cycled P, where the relative proportions of biologically cycled vs. fertilizer DIP are controlled by both biological (microbial activities and plant uptake) and hydrologic factors (loading rate and residence time). Using a two-end-member (i.e., fertilizer P and biologically cycled P) mixing model, fertilizers were estimated to contribute about 15 100% of the DIP pool in the highly impacted areas of the northern Everglades, whereas the DIP pool in the reference (i.e., relatively pristine) wetlands in the Everglades National Park was dominated by biologically cycled P. The study shows that O isotopic measurements of dissolved PO(exp 3-, sub 4) can be a useful tool for tracing the fertilizer P inputs to freshwater ecosystems.

Li, Xin↗

A Global Climatology of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Aura OMI and MLS Measurements

A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone is derived by combining six years of Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone measurements for the period October 2004 through December 2010. The OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone climatology exhibits large temporal and spatial variability which includes ozone accumulation zones in the tropical south Atlantic year-round and in the subtropical Mediterranean! Asia region in summer months. High levels of tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere also persist in mid-latitudes over the eastern North American and Asian continents extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. For stratospheric ozone climatology from MLS, largest ozone abundance lies in the northern hemisphere in the latitude range 70degN-80degN in February-April and in the southern hemisphere around 40degS-50degS during months August-October. The largest stratospheric ozone abundances in the northern hemisphere lie over North America and eastern Asia extending eastward across the Pacific Ocean and in the southern hemisphere south of Australia extending eastward across the dateline. With the advent of many newly developing 3D chemistry and transport models it is advantageous to have such a dataset for evaluating the performance of the models in relation to dynamical and photochemical processes controlling the ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Ziemke, J.R.↗

Time-Resolved Optical Measurements of Fuel-Air Mixedness in Windowless High Speed Research Combustors

Fuel distribution measurements in gas turbine combustors are needed from both pollution and fuel-efficiency standpoints. In addition to providing valuable data for performance testing and engine development, measurements of fuel distributions uniquely complement predictive numerical simulations. Although equally important as spatial distribution, the temporal distribution of the fuel is an often overlooked aspect of combustor design and development. This is due partly to the difficulties in applying time-resolved diagnostic techniques to the high-pressure, high-temperature environments inside gas turbine engines. Time-resolved measurements of the fuel-to-air ratio (F/A) can give researchers critical insights into combustor dynamics and acoustics. Beginning in early 1998, a windowless technique that uses fiber-optic, line-of-sight, infrared laser light absorption to measure the time-resolved fluctuations of the F/A (refs. 1 and 2) will be used within the premixer section of a lean-premixed, prevaporized (LPP) combustor in NASA Lewis Research Center's CE-5 facility. The fiber-optic F/A sensor will permit optical access while eliminating the need for film-cooled windows, which perturb the flow. More importantly, the real-time data from the fiber-optic F/A sensor will provide unique information for the active feedback control of combustor dynamics. This will be a prototype for an airborne sensor control system.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

Overview of Global/Regional Models Used to Evaluate Tropospheric Ozone in North America

Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas, toxic pollutant, and plays a major role in atmospheric chemistry. Tropospheric O3 which resides in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is highly reactive and has a lifetime on the order of days, however, O3 in the free troposphere and stratosphere has a lifetime on the order of weeks or months. Modeling O3 mixing ratios at and above the surface is difficult due to the multiple formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large spatio-temporal variability in O3 mixing ratios. This talk will summarize in detail the global/regional models that are commonly used to simulate/predict O3 mixing ratios in the United States. The major models which will be focused on are the: 1) Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), 2) Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), 3) Goddard Earth Observing System with Chemistry (GEOS-Chem), 4) Real Time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), 5) Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART), and 7) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM3 model. I will discuss the major modeling components which impact O3 mixing ratio calculations in each model and the similarities/differences between these models. This presentation is vital to the 2nd Annual Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) Conference as it will provide an overview of tools, which can be used in conjunction with TOLNet data, to evaluate the complex chemistry and transport pathways controlling tropospheric O3 mixing ratios.

Mixing Ratios↗

Program Instrumentation and Trace Analysis

Several attempts have been made recently to apply techniques such as model checking and theorem proving to the analysis of programs. This shall be seen as a current trend to analyze real software systems instead of just their designs. This includes our own effort to develop a model checker for Java, the Java PathFinder 1, one of the very first of its kind in 1998. However, model checking cannot handle very large programs without some kind of abstraction of the program. This paper describes a complementary scalable technique to handle such large programs. Our interest is turned on the observation part of the equation: How much information can be extracted about a program from observing a single execution trace? It is our intention to develop a technology that can be applied automatically and to large full-size applications, with minimal modification to the code. We present a tool, Java PathExplorer (JPaX), for exploring execution traces of Java programs. The tool prioritizes scalability for completeness, and is directed towards detecting errors in programs, not to prove correctness. One core element in JPaX is an instrumentation package that allows to instrument Java byte code files to log various events when executed. The instrumentation is driven by a user provided script that specifies what information to log. Examples of instructions that such a script can contain are: 'report name and arguments of all called methods defined in class C, together with a timestamp'; 'report all updates to all variables'; and 'report all acquisitions and releases of locks'. In more complex instructions one can specify that certain expressions should be evaluated and even that certain code should be executed under various conditions. The instrumentation package can hence be seen as implementing Aspect Oriented Programming for Java in the sense that one can add functionality to a Java program without explicitly changing the code of the original program, but one rather writes an aspect and compiles it into the original program using the instrumentation. Another core element of JPaX is an observation package that supports the analysis of the generated event stream. Two kinds of analysis are currently supported. In temporal analysis the execution trace is evaluated against formulae written in temporal logic. We have implemented a temporal logic evaluator on finite traces using the Maude rewriting system from SRI International, USA. Temporal logic is defined in Maude by giving its syntax as a signature and its semantics as rewrite equations. The resulting semantics is extremely efficient and can handle event streams of hundreds of millions events in few minutes. Furthermore, the implementation is very succinct. The second form of even stream analysis supported is error pattern analysis where an execution trace is analyzed using various error detection algorithms that can identify error-prone programming practices that may potentially lead to errors in some different executions. Two such algorithms focusing on concurrency errors have been implemented in JPaX, one for deadlocks and the other for data races. It is important to note, that a deadlock or data race potential does not need to occur in order for its potential to be detected with these algorithms. This is what makes them very scalable in practice. The data race algorithm implemented is the Eraser algorithm from Compaq, however adopted to Java. The tool is currently being applied to a code base for controlling a spacecraft by the developers of that software in order to evaluate its applicability.

Havelund, Klaus↗

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗

Towards Sheaf Theoretic Analyses for Delay Tolerant Networking

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to take a collection of heterogeneous, disparate connections between satellites, space assets, ground stations, and ground infrastructure and bring it together into a cohesive, functioning overlay network. Depending on the systems being considered, one can find links with a one-way light time exceeding minutes (and hours),periodic links which can sometimes be predicted by orbital mechanics, and restrictions based on the variety of capabilities built into these systems. These characteristics preclude traditional network models and routing techniques and have classically led to either rigid routing tables or purely probabilistic models. As the deeper underlying structures remain unknown, development of more DTN-optimized algorithms has lacked the necessary foundation. In a continuation of previous work, the goal of this paper is to identify and study these fundamental structures that exist in delay tolerant networks (DTN), with a focus on space networks. The current routing methodology has been to use contact graph routing (CGR) algorithms. CGR models a series of known contacts as a static graph. For CGR to work, this graph must be globally consistent and must have an accurate picture of the network. Because this is a globally controlled structure, there is little room for flexibility in the event of changes to the network which would naturally occur as the network grows. As a response to the desire for flexibility as the network changes, we introduced the mathematical structure known as sheaves to DTNs last year. The tag-line for sheaves is that they are a mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique global data. Thus, sheaves lend extra power to traditional models(and routing algorithms) by taking additional information and merging it, in as consistent a manner as possible, with the representation itself. The clearest example of how Earth-bound networks exhibit behavior that is “sheafy” is link state routers, which build a local-to-global picture of their network by gluing local information together into a global network, exactly as a sheaf would do. For routing within delay tolerant networks to truly exploit this structure, a deeper structure than a graph is required. In this paper, we develop sheaves that can work over directed graphs such as temporal flow networks, we construct a sheaf representation for Dijkstra’s algorithm, and we outline a construction for routing sheaves capable of modeling multicast scenarios. Finally, there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Robert Short↗

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the observed Arctic conditions since the 1970s have been shown to exhibit a linear behavior that directly contradicts what has been expected from the A0 (Overland, 2005). The decade of the 1990s has been regarded as the warmest decade in the last century and current data indicates that the 2000s may be even a warmer decade than the 1990s further supporting the linear variability. In this paper, we use satellite data to gain insights into the warming Arctic and how the abnormally warm conditions during the last few years are reflected in the region.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Real-time Identification and Control of Satellite Signal Impairments Solution and Application of the Stratonovich Equation Part 1. Theoretical Development

As satellite communications systems become both more complex and reliant with respect to their operating environment, it has become imperative to be able to identify, during real-time operation, the onset of one or more impairments to the quality of overall communications system integrity. One of the most important aspects to monitor of a satellite link operating within the Earth's atmosphere is the signal fading due to the occurrence of rain and/or phase scintillations. This, of course, must be done in the presence of the associated measurement uncertainty or potentially faulty measurement equipment such as in the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) experiment. In the present work, an approach originally suggested in 1991, and apparently still considered iconoclastic, will be significantly developed and applied to the satellite communications link on which the deleterious composite signal fade is the result of one or many component fade mechanisms. Through the measurement (with the attendant uncertainty or 'error' in the measurement) of such a composite fading satellite signal, it is desired to extract the level of each of the individual fading mechanisms so they can be appropriately mitigated before they impact the overall performance of the communications network. Rather than employing simple-minded deterministic filtering to the real-time fading, the present approach is built around all the models and/or descriptions used to describe the individual fade components, including their dynamic evolution. The latter is usually given by a first-order Langevin equation. This circumstance allows the description of the associated temporal transition probability densities of each of the component processes. By using this description, along with the real-time measurements of the composite fade (along with the measurement errors), one can obtain statistical estimates of the levels of each of the component fading mechanisms as well as their predicted values into the future. This is all accomplished by the use of the well-known Stratonovich integro-differential equation that results from the model of the measured signal fade that is also tailored to adaptively adjust the values of the parameters used in the statistical models of the individual fade mechanisms. Three examples of increasing complexity are addressed and solved for the iterative determination of fade component levels from the measured composite signal fade in the presence of measurement error and, in the last case, with uncertainty in the model parameters.

Countermeasure↗

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the ‘‘new Arctic’’). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

Mcpartland, Linette N.↗

Development of the wake behind a circular cylinder impulsively started into rotatory and rectilinear motion

The temporal development of a 2D viscous incompressible flow generated by a circular cylinder started impulsively into steady rotatory and rectilinear motion is studied by integration of a velocity/vorticity formulation of the governing equations, using an explicit finite-difference/pseudo-spectral technique and an implementation of the Biot-Savart law. Results are presented for a Reynolds number of 200 (based on the cylinder diameter 2a and the magnitude U of the rectilinear velocity) for several values of the angular/rectilinear speed ratio alpha = omega(a)/U (where omega is the angular speed) up to 3.25. Several aspects of the kinematics and dynamics of the flow not considered earlier are discussed. For higher values of alpha, the results indicate that for Re = 200, vortex shedding does indeed occur for alpha = 3.25. However, consecutive vortices shed by the body can be shed from the same side and be of the same sense, in contrast to the nonrotating case, in which mirror-image vortices of opposite sense are shed alternately on opposite sides of the body. The implications of the results are discussed in relation to the possibility of suppressing vortex shedding by open or closed-loop control of the rotation rate.

Chen, Yen-Ming↗

Quantitative Measurement of Oxygen in Microgravity Combustion

A low-gravity environment, in space or in ground-based facilities such as drop towers, provides a unique setting for studying combustion mechanisms. Understanding the physical phenomena controlling the ignition and spread of flames in microgravity has importance for space safety as well as for better characterization of dynamical and chemical combustion processes which are normally masked by buoyancy and other gravity-related effects. Due to restrictions associated with performing measurements in reduced gravity, diagnostic methods which have been applied to microgravity combustion studies have generally been limited to capture of flame emissions on film or video, laser Schlieren imaging and (intrusive) temperature measurements using thermocouples. Given the development of detailed theoretical models, more sophisticated diagnostic methods are needed to provide the kind of quantitative data necessary to characterize the properties of microgravity combustion processes as well as provide accurate feedback to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. When the demands of space flight are considered, the need for improved diagnostic systems which are rugged, compact, reliable, and operate at low power becomes apparent. The objective of this research is twofold. First, we want to develop a better understanding of the relative roles of diffusion and reaction of oxygen in microgravity combustion. As the primary oxidizer species, oxygen plays a major role in controlling the observed properties of flames, including flame front speed (in solid or liquid flames), extinguishment characteristics, flame size and flame temperature. The second objective is to develop better diagnostics based on diode laser absorption which can be of real value in both microgravity combustion research and as a sensor on-board Spacelab as either an air quality monitor or as part of a fire detection system. In our prior microgravity work, an eight line-of-sight fiber optic system measured water vapor mole fractions in the NASA Lewis 2.2-sec Drop Tower. In that system, the laser and all electronics resided at the top of the drop tower and was connected via a fiber optic cable to the rig, on which a 'pitch and catch' set of fiber collimating lenses were used to transmit the laser beam across a jet diffusion flame. This system required eight independent detection/demodulation units and had poor spatial resolution. This research builds on this earlier work, resulting in an improved capability for quantitative, nonintrusive measurement of major combustion species. A vertical cavity surface-emitting diode laser (VCSEL) and a continuous spatial scanning method permit the measurement of temporal and spatial profiles of the concentrations and temperatures of molecular oxygen. High detection sensitivity is achieved with wavelength modulation spectroscopy (WMS). One-g experiments are performed using a slot diffusion flame. Microgravity measurements on a solid fuel (cellulose sheet) system are planned for the NASA Lewis 2.2-second Drop Tower Facility.

Silver, Joel A.↗

A Global Data Assimilation System for Atmospheric Aerosol

We will give an overview of an aerosol data assimilation system which combines advances in remote sensing of atmospheric aerosols, aerosol modeling and data assimilation methodology to produce high spatial and temporal resolution 3D aerosol fields. Initially, the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS) will assimilate TOMS, AVHRR and AERONET observations; later we will include MODIS and MISR. This data assimilation capability will allows us to integrate complementing aerosol observations from these platforms, enabling the development of an assimilated aerosol climatology as well as a global aerosol forecasting system in support of field campaigns. Furthermore, this system provides an interactive retrieval framework for each aerosol observing satellites, in particular TOMS and AVHRR. The Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS) takes advantage of recent advances in constituent data assimilation at DAO, including flow dependent parameterizations of error covariances and the proper consideration of model bias. For its prognostic transport model, GAAS will utilize the Goddard Ozone, Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model developed at NASA/GSFC Codes 916 and 910.3. GOCART includes the Lin-Rood flux-form, semi-Langrangian transport model with parameterized aerosol chemistry and physical processes for absorbing (dust and black carbon) and non-absorbing aerosols (sulfate and organic carbon). Observations and model fields are combined using a constituent version of DAO's Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), including its adaptive quality control system. In this talk we describe the main components of this assimilation system and present preliminary results obtained by assimilating TOMS data.

daSilva, Arlindo↗