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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗
NASA NTRS2010

Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

Ng, Hok K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand

While the traditional facility location problem considers exogenous demand, in some applications, locations of facilities could affect the willingness of customers to use certain types of services, e.g., carsharing, and therefore they also affect realizations of random demand. Moreover, a decision maker may not know the exact distribution of such endogenous demand and how it is affected by location choices. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust facility location problem, in which we interpret the moments of stochastic demand as functions of facility-location decisions. We reformulate a two-stage decision-dependent distributionally robust optimization model as a monolithic formulation, and then derive exact mixed-integer linear programming reformulation as well as valid inequalities when the means and variances of demand are piecewise linear functions of location solutions. We conduct extensive computational studies, in which we compare our model with a decision-dependent deterministic model, as well as stochastic programming and distributionally robust models without the decision-dependent assumption. Here, the results show superior performance of our approach with remarkable improvement in profit and quality of service under various settings, in addition to computational speed-ups given by formulation enhancements. These results draw attention to the need of considering the impact of location decisions on customer demand within this strategic-level planning problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Co-Optimization of Navigation System Requirements and Trajectory Design Using a Sweeping Gradient Method and Linear Covariance Analysis

We describe the application of a sweeping gradient method for ordinary differential equations with events (SGM) and linear covariance analysis (LinCov) to the co-optimization of navigation system requirement generation and robust trajectory design. SGM is a method for computing the gradient of trajectory analyses defined by performance indices over initial value problems with events with respect to static parameters. LinCov is an analytic technique for predicting stochastic behavior of dynamical systems. By combining SGM and LinCov, it is possible use efficient, off-the-shelf, gradient-based optimizers to solve a combined robust optimal trajectory and navigation system design problem. In this paper, we formulate the required models to apply the combined SGM and LinCov techniques to a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit rendezvous approach scenario and show results for several intermediate problems.

Benjamin W L Margolis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Restoration Strategy for Active Distribution Systems Considering Endogenous Uncertainty in Cold Load Pickup

Cold load pickup (CLPU) phenomenon is identified as the persistent power inrush upon a sudden load pickup after an outage. Under the active distribution system (ADS) paradigm, where distributed energy resources (DERs) are extensively installed, the decreased outage duration can induce a strong interdependence between CLPU pattern and load pickup decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel modelling technique to tractably capture the decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) inherent in the CLPU process. Subsequently, a two-stage stochastic decision-dependent service restoration (SDDSR) model is constructed, where first stage searches for the optimal switching sequences to decide step-wise network topology, and the second stage optimizes the detailed generation schedule of DERs as well as the energization of switchable loads. Further, to tackle the computational burdens introduced by mixed-integer recourse, the progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is utilized to decompose the original model into scenario-wise subproblems that can be solved in parallel. The numerical test on modified IEEE 123-node test feeders has verified the efficiency of our proposed SDDSR model and provided fresh insights into the monetary and secure values of DDU quantification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining model-based and model-free methods for stochastic control of distributed energy resources

Modern distribution systems are experiencing a fast transformation with the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Along with the economic and environmental benefits of DERs, challenges arise to address the uncertainties caused by their inherent volatility. If properly coordinated, however, DERs have the potential to provide the controllability that grid operators need. Here, we propose a hierarchical control framework that combines the model-based and model-free methods for stochastic DER control in distribution systems. The upper-level scheduler considers a chance-constrained optimal power flow problem (model-based) that schedules DER setpoints to minimize the operational cost and maintain the operating reserve. The lower-level distributed DER controllers absorb real-time disturbances and uncertainties using the extremum seeking control (model-free) to achieve grid objectives. The combination of model-based and model-free methods allows us to take the advantages of both methods to effectively manage the uncertainty in distribution systems. The proposed work is demonstrated on the IEEE 13-node feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vehicle to Grid Frequency Regulation Capacity Optimal Scheduling for Battery Swapping Station Using Deep Q-Network

Battery swapping stations (BSSs) are ideal candidates for fast frequency regulation services (FFRS) due to their large battery stock capacity. In addition, BSSs can precharge batteries for customers and the batteries that are not in charging can provide a stable regulation capacity to the market. However, uncertainties, such as ACE signals and the EV per-hour visit counts, introduce stochastic nonlinear dynamics into the operation of a BSS-based FFRS. Currently, there is no quantification method to ensure its optimal economical operation. To close this gap, in this article, we propose a novel deep Q-learning-based FFRS capacity dynamic scheduling strategy. This method can autonomously schedule the hourly regulation capacity in real time to maximize the BSSx0027;s revenue for providing FFRS. Case studies using real-world data verify the efficacy of the proposed work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extracting and Generating PV Soiling Profiles for Analysis, Forecasting, and Cleaning Optimization

The identification and prediction of the daily soiling profiles of a photovoltaic site is essential to plan the optimal cleaning schedule. In this article, we analyze and propose various methods to extract and generate photovoltaic soiling profiles, in order to improve the analysis and the forecast of the losses. New soiling rate extraction methods are proposed to reflect the seasonal variability of the soiling rates and, for this reason, are found to identify the most convenient cleaning day with the highest accuracy for the investigated sites. Also, we present an approach that could be used to predict future soiling losses through the implementation of stochastic weather generation algorithms whose ability to identify in advance the best cleaning schedule is also successfully tested. The methods presented in this article can optimize the operation and maintenance schedule and could make it possible, in the future, to predict soiling losses through analysis based only on environmental parameters, such as rainfall and particulate matter, without the need of long-term soiling data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Linear regulator design for stochastic systems by a multiple time-scales method

This short paper develops a hierarchically structured, suboptimal controller for a linear stochastic system composed of fast and slow subsystems. It is proved that the controller is optimal in the limit as the separation of time scales of the subsystems becomes infinite. The methodology is illustrated by design of a controller to suppress the phugoid and short-period modes of the longitudinal dynamics of the F-8 aircraft.

Teneketzis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Linear regulator design for stochastic systems by a multiple time scales method

This paper develops a hierarchically-structured, suboptimal controller for a linear stochastic system composed of fast and slow subsystems. It is proved that the controller is optimal in the limit as the separation of time scales of the subsystems becomes infinite. The methodology is illustrated by design of a controller to suppress the phugoid and short period modes of the longitudinal dynamics of the F-8 aircraft.

Teneketzis, D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-variance replica exchange SGMCMC for inverse and forward problems via Bayesian PINN

Physics-informed neural network (PINN) has been successfully applied in solving a variety of nonlinear non-convex forward and inverse problems. However, the training is challenging because of the non-convex loss functions and the multiple optima in the Bayesian inverse problem. In this work, we propose a multi-variance replica exchange stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics method to tackle the challenge of the multiple local optima in the optimization and the challenge of the multiple modal posterior distribution in the inverse problem. Replica exchange methods are capable of escaping from the local traps and accelerating the convergence; two chains with different temperatures are designed where the low temperature chain aims for the local convergence, and the target of the high temperature chain is to travel globally and explore the whole loss function entropy landscape. However, it may not be efficient to solve mathematical inversion problems by using the vanilla replica method directly since the method doubles the computational cost in evaluating the forward solvers (likelihood functions) in the two chains. To address this issue, we propose to make different assumptions on the energy function estimation and this facilities one to use solvers of different fidelities in the likelihood function evaluation. More precisely, one can use a solver with low fidelity in the high temperature chain while using a solver with high fidelity in the low temperature chain. Our proposed method significantly lowers the computational cost in the high temperature chain, meanwhile preserving the accuracy and converging very fast. Here we give an unbiased estimate of the swapping rate and give an estimation of the discretization error of the scheme. To verify our idea, we design and solve four inverse problems which have multiple modes. The proposed method is also employed to train the Bayesian PINN to solve the forward and inverse problems; faster and more accurate convergence has been observed when compared to the stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) method and vanilla replica exchange methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Simulation-Based Planning for Electric Airport Shuttle Systems: A Real-World Case Study

Many airports are adopting battery electric buses in their shuttle fleets due to concerns over air quality and regulations. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization modeling framework to help airport shuttle operators effectively deploy electric buses. We evaluated a planned airport electric shuttle system with an event-driven simulator. Empirical data collected from existing systems were used to drive the simulations. We then proposed a simulation-based optimization model to determine the battery capacity, charging power, and number of chargers so that predefined objective(s) (e.g., minimizing total capital cost, minimizing emissions) are optimized. Compared to existing studies, the primary contribution of the proposed method is that it can model the real-world stochastic nature of operations in an electric bus system with much higher fidelity. To demonstrate the proposed modeling framework, we study a real-world shuttle system at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, and present extensive numerical studies. When considering partial fleet electrification, the model can provide a set of Pareto optimal solutions. When considering full fleet electrification, the optimal solution requires a 50-kWh battery capacity and four 210-kW chargers, resulting in a total capital cost of $26,744,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework can effectively optimize the planning of electric airport shuttle systems with partial or full fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning-based demand-supply-coupled charging station location problem for electric vehicle demand management

We present a learning-based, demand-supply-coupled optimization model for the charging station location problem (CSLP), aiming to integrate the concept of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand management into the planning of charging infrastructures. In stage one, a gradient boosting-based learning model is developed to predict the charging demand of a charging station based on 15 defined features. Next, in stage two, a demand–supply-coupled CSLP model is developed to optimize the total charging usage rates of both existing and newly selected charging stations. We design a gradient-based stochastic spatial search algorithm to solve the proposed model. A case study with 6-year charging event data from Kansas City Missouri is performed. Results show that the proposed method can generate satisfactory charging demand predictions, and can increase charging usage rates by 14%, outperforming two benchmark approaches. Furthermore, the results of this research are poised to guide agencies in identifying optimal locations for new charging stations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power System Resilience Enhancement in Typhoons Using a Three-Stage Day-Ahead Unit Commitment

In this work, we propose a three-stage resilient unit commitment model which considers uncertain typhoon paths and line outages to improve the power system resilience against typhoon events. The proposed solution coordinates resources in response to the worst-case scenario for each possible typhoon path. The optimal decision is based on the characterization of the power system schedule into three stages of preventive control, emergency control, and restoration. Preventive control is performed before the typhoon occurs by quickly adjusting the three-stage resilient unit commitment schedule; emergency control is conducted during the typhoon by shedding local loads to meet the power balance, while other control strategies are assumed to be unavailable due to possible interruptions in the communication system; restoration is realized after the typhoon, when resources are optimally dispatched to repair the outages of critical devices and recover the normal operation state of the power system quickly. Considering the typhoon path uncertainty, we have introduced a stochastic model for possible typhoon paths where all possible affected lines along each typhoon path are assumed to be on outage during the typhoon. Accordingly, we explore the strategy for co-optimizing the three stages in unit commitment. The proposed model is tested on the IEEE 118-bus system and the real-world provincial system to verify its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗