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At least 721 records · Page 40

Detecting Quantum Critical Points of Correlated Systems by Quantum Convolutional Neural Network Using Data from Variational Quantum Eigensolver

Machine learning has been applied to a wide variety of models, from classical statistical mechanics to quantum strongly correlated systems, for classifying phase transitions. The recently proposed quantum convolutional neural network (QCNN) provides a new framework for using quantum circuits instead of classical neural networks as the backbone of classification methods. We present the results from training the QCNN by the wavefunctions of the variational quantum eigensolver for the one-dimensional transverse field Ising model (TFIM). We demonstrate that the QCNN identifies wavefunctions corresponding to the paramagnetic and ferromagnetic phases of the TFIM with reasonable accuracy. The QCNN can be trained to predict the corresponding ‘phase’ of wavefunctions around the putative quantum critical point even though it is trained by wavefunctions far away. The paper provides a basis for exploiting the QCNN to identify the quantum critical point.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Collisional Excitation of HCN by CO to Refine the Modeling of Cometary Comae

Here, we present the first dataset of collisional (de)-excitation rate coefficients of HCN induced by CO, one of the main perturbing gases in cometary atmospheres. The dataset spans the temperature range of 5–50 K. It includes both state-to-state rate coefficients involving the lowest ten and nine rotational levels of HCN and CO, respectively, and the so-called “thermalized” rate coefficients over the rotational population of CO at each kinetic temperature. The derivation of these coefficients exploited the good performance of the statistical adiabatic channel model (SACM) on top of an accurate interaction potential computed at the CCSD(T)-F12b/CBS level of theory. The reliability of the SACM approach was validated by comparison with full quantum calculations restricted at the lowest total angular momentum of the system. These results provide essential input to accurately model the distribution among the rotational energy levels and the abundance of HCN in cometary atmospheres, accounting for deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium that typically occurs in such environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Watch and learn—a generalized approach for transferrable learning in deep neural networks via physical principles

Transfer learning refers to the use of knowledge gained while solving a machine learning task and applying it to the solution of a closely related problem. Such an approach has enabled scientific breakthroughs in computer vision and natural language processing where the weights learned in state-of-the-art models can be used to initialize models for other tasks which dramatically improve their performance and save computational time. Here we demonstrate an unsupervised learning approach augmented with basic physical principles that achieves fully transferrable learning for problems in statistical physics across different physical regimes. By coupling a sequence model based on a recurrent neural network to an extensive deep neural network, we are able to learn the equilibrium probability distributions and inter-particle interaction models of classical statistical mechanical systems. Our approach, distribution-consistent learning, DCL, is a general strategy that works for a variety of canonical statistical mechanical models (Ising and Potts) as well as disordered interaction potentials. Using data collected from a single set of observation conditions, DCL successfully extrapolates across all temperatures, thermodynamic phases, and can be applied to different length-scales. This constitutes a fully transferrable physics-based learning in a generalizable approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Algebraic Bethe Circuits

The Algebraic Bethe Ansatz (ABA) is a highly successful analytical method used to exactly solve several physical models in both statistical mechanics and condensed-matter physics. Here we bring the ABA into unitary form, for its direct implementation on a quantum computer. This is achieved by distilling the non-unitary R matrices that make up the ABA into unitaries using the QR decomposition. Our algorithm is deterministic and works for both real and complex roots of the Bethe equations. We illustrate our method on the spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ XX and XXZ models. We show that using this approach one can efficiently prepare eigenstates of the XX model on a quantum computer with quantum resources that match previous state-of-the-art approaches. We run small-scale error mitigated implementations on the IBM quantum computers, including the preparation of the ground state for the XX and XXZ models on 4 sites. Finally, we derive a new form of the Yang-Baxter equation using unitary matrices, and also verify it on a quantum computer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measuring quasiparticle dynamics for particle impact reconstruction in a superconducting qubit chip

Quasiparticle poisoning following particle impacts poses a significant challenge to the development of fault-tolerant superconducting quantum computers, as a sudden excess of quasiparticles can simultaneously degrade the coherence of multiple qubits across large device arrays. In this work, we present a statistical analysis that models the time evolution of radiation-induced qubit energy relaxation through quasiparticle density dynamics. This study provides insight into quasiparticle loss processes by distinguishing between recombination and trapping decay channels and assessing their respective impact on qubit performance. We precisely measure quasiparticle recombination in multiple transmon qubits and uncover an unexpected dependence of qubit relaxation dynamics on deposited energy. By linking correlated relaxation events across qubits to ballistic phonon propagation, we introduce a statistical localization approach to extract the energy deposited in the substrate, which is in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulation. This work establishes the quantitative framework for using an arbitrary subset of superconducting transmon qubits in a QPU as energy-resolving witness particle detectors.

Celi, E. [Northwestern U.]↗

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A best-practice guide to predicting plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data using partial least squares regression

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) modelling is a statistical technique for correlating datasets, and involves the fitting of a linear regression between two matrices. One application of PLSR enables leaf traits to be estimated from hyperspectral optical reflectance data, facilitating rapid, high-throughput, non-destructive plant phenotyping. This technique is of interest and importance in a wide range of contexts including crop breeding and ecosystem monitoring. The lack of a consensus in the literature on how to perform PLSR means that interpreting model results can be challenging, applying existing models to novel datasets can be impossible, and unknown or undisclosed assumptions can lead to incorrect or spurious predictions. We address this lack of consensus by proposing best practices for using PLSR to predict plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data, including a discussion of when PLSR is applicable, and recommendations for data collection. Further, we provide a tutorial to demonstrate how to develop a PLSR model, in the form of an R script accompanying this manuscript. This practical guide will assist all those interpreting and using PLSR models to predict leaf traits from spectral data, and advocates for a unified approach to using PLSR for predicting traits from spectra in the plant sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KiDS-1000 cosmology: Combined second- and third-order shear statistics

Aims.In this work, we perform the first cosmological parameter analysis of the fourth release of Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) data with second- and third-order shear statistics. This paper builds on a series of studies aimed at describing the roadmap to third-order shear statistics. Methods.We derived and tested a combined model of the second-order shear statistic, namely, the COSEBIs and the third-order aperture mass statistics 〈ℳ ap 3 〉 in a tomographic set-up. We validated our pipeline withN-body mock simulations of the KiDS-1000 data release. To model the second- and third-order statistics, we used the latest version of HMCODE2020 for the power spectrum and BIHALOFITfor the bispectrum. Furthermore, we used an analytic description to model intrinsic alignments and hydro-dynamical simulations to model the effect of baryonic feedback processes. Lastly, we decreased the dimension of the data vector significantly by considering only equal smoothing radii for the 〈ℳ ap 3 〉 part of the data vector. This makes it possible to carry out a data analysis of the KiDS-1000 data release using a combined analysis of COSEBIs and third-order shear statistics. Results.We first validated the accuracy of our modelling by analysing a noise-free mock data vector, assuming the KiDS-1000 error budget, finding a shift in the maximum of the posterior distribution of the matter density parameter, ΔΩ m < 0.02 σ Ω m , and of the structure growth parameter, ΔS 8 < 0.05 σ S 8 . Lastly, we performed the first KiDS-1000 cosmological analysis using a combined analysis of second- and third-order shear statistics, where we constrained Ω m = 0.248 −0.055 +0.062 andS 8 = σ 8 √(Ω m /0.3 )= 0.772 ± 0.022. The geometric average on the errors of Ω m andS 8 of the combined statistics decreases, compared to the second-order statistic, by a factor of 2.2.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precision test of statistical dynamics with state-to-state ultracold chemistry

Chemical reactions represent a class of quantum problems that challenge both the current theoretical understanding and computational capabilities1. Reactions that occur at ultralow temperatures provide an ideal testing ground for quantum chemistry and scattering theories, because they can be experimentally studied with unprecedented control, yet display dynamics that are highly complex. Here we report the full product state distribution for the reaction 2KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 . Ultracold preparation of the reactants allows us complete control over their initial quantum degrees of freedom, whereas state-resolved, coincident detection of both products enables the probability of scattering into each of the 57 allowed rotational state-pairs to be measured. Our results show an overall agreement with a state-counting model based on statistical theory, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. In particular, we observe a strong suppression of population in the state-pair closest to the exoergicity limit as a result of the long-range potential inhibiting the escape of products. Finally, the completeness of our measurements provides a benchmark for quantum dynamics calculations beyond the current state of the art.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of spatiotemporal smoothing on the two-plasmon–decay instability

Higher levels of hot electrons from the two-plasmon–decay instability are observed when smoothing by spectral dispersion (SSD) is turned off in directly driven inertial confinement fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This finding is explained using a hot-spot model based on speckle statistics and simulation results from the laser–plasma simulation environment. The model accurately reproduces the relative increase in hot-electron activity at two different drive intensities, although it slightly overestimates the absolute number of hot electrons in all cases. Extrapolating from the current ≈ 360-GHz system while adhering to the logic of the hot-spot model suggests that larger SSD bandwidth should significantly mitigate hot-electron generation, and legacy 1-THz OMEGA experiments appear to support this conclusion. These results demonstrate that it is essential to account for laser speckles and spatiotemporal smoothing to obtain quantitative agreement with experiments. A compilation of hot-electron data from the past two decades reveals several other important points: (1) many prior experiments are more easily understood using recent results from multibeam absolute instability theory; and (2) experiments with ignition-scale conditions produce less hot electrons compared to OMEGA spherical experiments for a given vacuum overlapped intensity, which is a promising result for validating performance predictions based on hydrodynamic scaling relations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Universal trend of charge radii of even-even Ca–Zn nuclei

Radii of nuclear charge distributions carry information about the strong and electromagnetic forces acting inside the atomic nucleus. Whereas the global behavior of nuclear charge radii is governed by the bulk properties of nuclear matter, their local trends are affected by quantum motion of proton and neutron nuclear constituents. The measured differential charge radii δ$\langle$$r^{2}_{c}$$\rangle$ between neutron numbers N = 28 and N = 40 exhibit a universal pattern as a function of n = N – 28 that is independent of the atomic number. In this work, we analyze this remarkable behavior in even-even nuclei from calcium to zinc using two state-of-the-art theories based on quantified nuclear interactions: the ab initio coupled cluster theory and nuclear density functional theory. Both theories reproduce the smooth rise of differential charge radii and their weak dependence on the atomic number. By considering a large set of isotopic chains, we show that this trend can be captured by just two parameters: the slope and curvature of δ$\langle$$r^{2}_{c}$$\rangle$(n). We demonstrate that these parameters show appreciable model dependence, and the statistical analysis indicates that they are not correlated with any single model property, i.e., they are impacted by both bulk nuclear properties as well as shell structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗