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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

The 1973-1984 Solar Modulation of Cosmic Ray Nuclei

As a continuation of the program of solar modulation studies, new measurements were carried out with the cosmic ray telescope on the Earth satellite IMP-8, of the intensity time variations and the energy spectra of galactic cosmic ray protons, helium, carbon and oxygen from 1980 through 1984 including the recent solar maximum. In order to test the applicability of a steady state model of solar modulation during a period which includes times of rapidly changing modulation, these fluxes were equated with the predictions of a conventional model of solar modulation which assumes equilibrium between modulation mechanisms. It is found that for a reasonable range of variations of the diffusion coefficient the model predictions can be made to agree with the measurements at essentially all times during the studied period. The model can account also for the observed hysteresis effects between cosmic rays of different rigidities.

Garcia-Munoz, M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar cycle variations of the anomalous cosmic ray component

The intensity of the anomalous cosmic ray component, consisting of He, N, O, and Ne, has long been known to be especially sensitive to the effects of solar modulation. Following its discovery in 1972, this component dominated the quiet time flux of cosmic ray nuclei below approx. 30 MeV/nucleon during the 1972 to 1978 solar minimum, but then became essentially unobservable at 1 AU with the approach of solar maximum conditions. One recent theoretical model predicts substantial differences in the intensity of the anomalous fluxes from one solar minimum period to the next because of the reversal of the solar magnetic field. Using data from the Caltech experiments on IMP-8 and ICE (ISEE-3), the intensity of anomalous O and He at 1 AU during the years 1972 to 1985 is reported in particular. Whether the anomalous fluxes will return to their 1972-1978 levels, as predicted by spherically symmetric modulation models, or whether they will fail to return to 1 AU, as suggested by modulation models in which gradient and curvature drifts dominate are to be determined. The preliminary analysis of data from 1984 shows that the intensity of 8 to 27 MeV/nucleon O is still more than an order of magnitude below its 1972 to 1978 levels, while the intensity of 25 to 43 MeV/nucleon He is a factor of Approx. 8 below its maximum level in 1977.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar cycle variations of the anomalous cosmic ray component

The intensity of the anomalous cosmic ray component, consisting of He, N, O, and Ne, has long been known to be especially sensitive to the effects of solar modulation. Following its discovery in 1972, this component dominated the quiet-time flux of cosmic ray nuclei below approximately 30 MeV/nucleon during the 1972 to 1978 solar minimum, but then became essentially unobservable at 1 AU with the approach of solar maximum conditions. One recent theoretical model predicts substantial differences in the intensity of the anomalous fluxes from one solar minimum period to the next because of the reversal of the solar magnetic field. Using data from the Caltech experiments on IMP-8 and ICE (ISEE-3), the intensity of anomalous O and He at 1 AU during the years 1972 to 1985 is reported. We hope to determine whether the anomalous fluxes will return to their 1972 to 1978 levels, as predicted by spherically symmetric modulation models, or whether they will fail to return to 1 AU, as suggested by modulation models in which gradient and curvature drifts dominate.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1990

SR90, strontium shaped-charge critical ionization velocity experiment

In May 1986 an experiment was performed to test Alfven's critical ionization velocity (CIV) effect in free space, using the first high explosive shaped charge with a conical liner of strontium metal. The release, made at 540 km altitude at dawn twilight, was aimed at 48 deg to B. The background electron density was 1.5 x 10(exp 4) cu cm. A faint field-aligned Sr(+) ion streak with tip velocity of 2.6 km/s was observed from two optical sites. Using two calibration methods, it was calculated that between 4.5 x 10(exp 20) and 2 x 10(exp 21) ions were visible. An ionization time constant of 1920 s was calculated for Sr from the solar UV spectrum and ionization cross section which combined with a computer simulation of the injection predicts 1.7 x 10(exp 21) solar UV ions in the low-velocity part of the ion streak. Thus all the observed ions are from solar UV ionization of the slow (less than critical) velocity portion of the neutral jet. The observed neutral Sr velocity distribution and computer simulations indicate that 2 x 10(exp 21) solar UV ions would have been created from the fast (greater than critical) part of the jet. They would have been more diffuse, and were not observed. Using this fact it was estimated that any CIV ions created were less than 10(exp 21). It was concluded that future Sr CIV free space experiments should be conducted below the UV shadow height and in much larger background plasma density.

Wescott, Eugene M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparisons of Solar Wind Coupling Parameters with Auroral Energy Deposition Rates

Measurement of the global rate of energy deposition in the ionosphere via auroral particle precipitation is one of the primary goals of the Polar UVI program and is an important component of the ISTP program. The instantaneous rate of energy deposition for the entire month of January 1997 has been calculated by applying models to the UVI images and is presented by Fillingim et al. In this session. A number of parameters that predict the rate of coupling of solar wind energy into the magnetosphere have been proposed in the last few decades. Some of these parameters, such as the epsilon parameter of Perrault and Akasofu, depend on the instantaneous values in the solar wind. Other parameters depend on the integrated values of solar wind parameters, especially IMF Bz, e.g. applied flux which predicts the net transfer of magnetic flux to the tail. While these parameters have often been used successfully with substorm studies, their validity in terms of global energy input has not yet been ascertained, largely because data such as that supplied by the ISTP program was lacking. We have calculated these and other energy coupling parameters for January 1997 using solar wind data provided by WIND and other solar wind monitors. The rates of energy input predicted by these parameters are compared to those measured through UVI data and correlations are sought. Whether these parameters are better at providing an instantaneous rate of energy input or an average input over some time period is addressed. We also study if either type of parameter may provide better correlations if a time delay is introduced; if so, this time delay may provide a characteristic time for energy transport in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system.

Elsen, R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Theoretical modeling, near-optimum design and predicted performance of n(+)pp(+) and p(+)nn(+) indium phosphide homojunction solar cells

Using a detailed simulation model of p(+)nn(+) and n(+)pp(+) indium phosphide (InP) homojunction solar cells, extensive parametric variation computer simulation runs are conducted to help arrive at near-optimum designs of these two solar cell configurations. Values of all the geometrical and material parameters corresponding to the near-optimal designs of both these configurations are presented. For each configuration, results are given for parametric variation runs showing how the performance parameters JSC, VOC, and eta vary with each of the cell parameters for the near-optimally designed cell.

Goradia, Chandra↗
DOE OSTI2020

Off-design performance of molten salt-driven Rankine cycles and its impact on the optimal dispatch of concentrating solar power systems

This paper presents a model for improving off-design performance predictions for molten salt-driven Rankine power cycles, such as in concentrating solar power tower applications. The model predicts cycle off-design performance under various boundary conditions, including molten salt inlet temperature, mass flow rate, and ambient temperature. The model is validated using industry performance data and benchmarked with results from the literature. A complete concentrating solar power plant, inclusive of solar heliostat field and receiver, is then considered, by implementing the Rankine cycle off-design performance results into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model software, which includes a tool that determines optimal power production schedules. The work improves upon the current System Advisor Model by updating off-design performance characteristics. A case study demonstrates the impact of cycle off-design behavior on annual performance for a stand-alone concentrating solar power system and a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid system. In addition, we demonstrate how cycle off-design performance influences optimal operator dispatch decisions and, thereby, overall system design and economics. We conclude that off-design cycle performance impacts “optimal” sub-system sizing, especially for a concentrating solar power-photovoltaic hybrid configuration in which concentrating solar power must dispatch in conjunction with photovoltaic generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

A quantitative test of solar modulation theory - The proton, helium, and electron spectra from 1965 through 1979

The predictions of a conventional, spherically symmetric model of solar modulation have been compared with the measured spectra of positively and negatively charged galactic cosmic-ray particles at 1 AU throughout the 1965-1976 solar cycle and through the enhanced modulation of 1979. For the proton/helium, proton/electron, and helium/electron flux ratios, there is remarkably good agreement between theory and experiment, except for small differences in 1965 and 1969. Possible systematic experimental errors are discussed, and it is concluded that: (1) the 11 year modulation process is largely independent of the sign of the particle charge; and (2) the assumption of steady state is a fairly good approximation for long term modulation.

Evenson, P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

Armand, Sasan C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Observations of the birth of a small coronal hole

Using soft X-ray data from the S-054 X-ray spectrographic telescope aboard Skylab, we observed temporal changes in the emission structure of the X-ray corona associated with the birth of a small coronal hole. Designated as CH6, this coronal hole was born near the equator in a time interval less than 9-1/2 hr. By constructing a light curve for a point near the center of CH6, we observed a sudden 40% decrease in X-ray emission associated with the birth of this coronal hole. On a time scale of hours, the growth of CH6 in area proceeded faster than the average rate predicted by the diffusion of solar fields. The short term decay of CH6 followed the diffusive rate to within experimental uncertainty. On a time scale of one rotation, the subsequent development of CH6 was not consistent with steady growth at the average rate predicted by diffusion.

Solodyna, C. V.↗
NASA NTRS1982

New results from the Viking relativity experiment

The predicted general relativistic effect of solar gravity on the round-trip times of electromagnetic signals traveling between earth and Mars has been verified by means of radio ranging to the Viking spacecraft. The ranging measurements were found to be consistent with the predicted increases of up to 200 microsec in the travel times of the signals to within the estimated uncertainty of 0.2%.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

New Petrology, Mineral Chemistry and Stable MG Isotope Compositions of an Allende CAI: EK-459-7-2

Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) are the key to understanding physical and chemical conditions in the nascent solar nebula. These inclusions have the oldest radiometric ages of solar system materials and are composed of phases that are predicted to condense early from a gas of solar composition. Thus, their chemistry and textures record conditions and processes in the earliest stages of development of the solar nebula. Type B inclusions are typically larger and more coarse grained than other types with substantial evidence that many of them were at least partially molten. Type B inclusions are further subdivided into Type B1 (possess thick melilite mantle) and Type B2 (lack melilite mantle). Despite being extensively studied, the origin of the melilite mantles of Type B1 inclusions remains uncertain. We present petrologic and chemical data for a Type B inclusion, EK-459-7-2, that bears features found in both Type B1 and B2 inclusions and likely represents an intermediate between the two types. Detailed studies of more of these intermediate objects may help to constrain models for Type B1 rim formation.

Jeffcoat, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Experimental Results from the Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) Flight Experiment

Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) is a flight experiment that flew on the Space Shuttle Endeavour (STS-72), in January 1996. TES-2 originally flew with TES-1 as part of the OAST-2 Hitchhiker payload on the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-62) in early 1994. The two experiments, TES-1 and TES-2 were identical except for the fluoride salts to be characterized. TES-1 provided data on lithium fluoride (LiF), TES-2 provided data on a fluoride eutectic (LiF/CaF2). Each experiment was a complex autonomous payload in a Get-Away-Special payload canister. TES-1 operated flawlessly for 22 hr. Results were reported in a paper entitled, Effect of Microgravity on Materials Undergoing Melting and Freezing-The TES Experiment, by David Namkoong et al. A software failure in TES-2 caused its shutdown after 4 sec of operation. TES-1 and 2 were the first experiments in a four experiment suite designed to provide data for understanding the long duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data have never been obtained before and have direct application for the development of space-based solar dynamic (SD) power systems. These power systems will store energy in a thermal energy salt such as lithium fluoride or a eutectic of lithium fluoride/calcium difluoride. The stored energy is extracted during the shade portion of the orbit. This enables the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes were developed for predicting performance of a space-based solar dynamic power system. Experimental verification of the analytical predictions were needed prior to using the analytical results for future space power design applications. The four TES flight experiments were to be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This paper will address the flight results from the first and second experiments, TES-1 and 2, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code. An analysis of the TES-2 data was conducted by Cleveland State University Professor, Mounir Ibrahim. TESSIM validation was based on two types of results; temperature history of various points on the containment vessel and TES material distribution within the vessel upon return from flight. The TESSIM prediction showed close comparison with the flight data. Distribution of the TES material within the vessel was obtained by a tomography imaging process. The frozen TES material was concentrated toward the colder end of the canister. The TESSIM prediction indicated a similar pattern. With agreement between TESSIM and the flight data, a computerized representation was produced to show the movement and behavior of the void during the entire melting and freezing cycles.

Tolbert, Carol↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of glass transition temperature of conjugated polymers from chemical structure

Predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) is of critical importance as it governs the thermomechanical performance of conjugated polymers (CPs). Here, we report a predictive modeling framework to predict T g of CPs through the integration of machine learning (ML), molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and experiments. With 154 T g data collected, an ML model is developed by taking simplified “geometry” of six chemical building blocks as molecular features, where side-chain fraction, isolated rings, fused rings, and bridged rings features are identified as the dominant ones for T g . MD simulations further unravel the fundamental roles of those chemical building blocks in dynamical heterogeneity and local mobility of CPs at a molecular level. The developed ML model is demonstrated for its capability of predicting T g of several new high-performance solar cell materials to a good approximation. The established predictive framework facilitates the design and prediction of T g of complex CPs, paving the way for addressing device stability issues that have hampered the field from developing stable organic electronics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗