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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
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DOE OSTI2020

Microsimulation of Energy and Flow Effects from Optimal Automated Driving in Mixed Traffic

In this paper we study the energy and traffic impact of a proposed Anticipative Cruise Controller in a PTV VISSIM microsimulation environment. We dissect our controller into two parts: 1. the unconnected mode, active when following a human-driven vehicle, and 2. the connected mode, active when following another automated vehicle equipped with connectivity. Probabilistic constraints balance safety considerations with inter-vehicle compactness, and vehicle constraints for acceleration capabilities are expressed through the use of powertrain maps. Emergent highway traffic scenarios are then modeled using time headway distributions from empirical traffic data. To study the impact of automation over a range of demands of free-flow to stop-and-go, we vary vehicle flux from low to high and vary automated vehicle penetration from low to high. When examining all-human driving scenarios, network capacity failed to meet demand in high-volume scenarios, such as rush-hour traffic. We further find that with connected automated vehicles introduced, network capacity was improved to support the high-volume scenarios. Finally, we examine energy efficiencies of the fleet for conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles. We find that automated vehicles perform at a 10%-20% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering conventional powertrains, and find that automated vehicles perform at a 3%-9% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering electric and hybrid powertrains. Due to secondary effects of smoothing traffic flow and reducing unnecessary braking, energy benefits also apply to human-driven vehicles that interact with automated ones. Such simulated humans were found to drive up to 10% more energy-efficiently than they did in the baseline all-human scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of Silica Support in Phosphoric Acid Catalyzed Production of p -Xylene from 2,5-Dimethylfuran and Ethylene

p-Xylene is a commodity chemical of industrial importance for terephthalic acid production, for which renewable sourcing from naturally abundant lignocellulosic biomass is highly desired. Previous work demonstrated that phosphoric acid stabilized on siliceous zeolite supports (e.g., P-BEA, P-SPP) exhibits high selectivity toward p-xylene (>97%) from 2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF) and ethylene. However, the effect of the support and the contribution of heterogeneous versus homogeneous phosphoric acid on the observed catalytic behavior in the solvated reaction system have not been addressed. Here, we determine the phosphoric acid catalytic activity for DMF conversion and its selectivity to p-xylene when it is supported on a silica support as well as in the absence of a support. Specifically, phosphoric acid catalysis was studied in three different scenarios: (1) phosphoric acid was added in the liquid reaction mixture in the absence of any solid support, (2) phosphoric acid was added in the liquid reaction mixture along with inert silica support including siliceous zeolite (i.e., allowing for phosphoric acid–support assembly to proceed in the reaction mixture), and (3) phosphoric acid was first impregnated on the siliceous zeolite support and then the preassembled supported phosphoric acid catalyst was added in the liquid reaction mixture. We found that the reaction rate and selectivity to p-xylene are different in the above scenarios reflecting the effect of the solid support on the catalytic performance of phosphoric acid. In scenario 1, a low concentration of phosphoric acid (1.7 mM) in the absence of any solid support exhibited high selectivity to p-xylene (80% selectivity to p-xylene at 60% conversion of DMF), which decreased with increasing acid concentration. The selectivity to p-xylene and activity of phosphoric acid significantly increased by adding a silica support into the reaction system (scenario 2). Furthermore, this improvement was attributed to phosphoric acid partial association with the surface of the silica support under the reaction conditions (in situ catalyst assembly). Phosphoric acid predeposited on siliceous zeolite supports (e.g., P-BEA, P-SPP) synthesized via impregnation prior to the reaction (scenario 3) catalyzed the reaction heterogeneously without noticeable leaching and exhibited the highest activity and selectivity to p-xylene, suggesting an important role of the silica support and the need to ensure that phosphoric acid acts as a heterogeneous catalyst in order to accomplish selective conversion of DMF to p-xylene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Pore‐Scale Investigation of Mineral Precipitation Driven Diffusivity Change at the Column‐Scale

Abstract Mineral precipitation affects the pore structure and thus transport properties of porous media. In this study, we investigated the pore‐scale dynamics of precipitation in diffusion controlled systems and the resulting impacts on the effective diffusivity, using a micro‐continuum reactive transport model. Forty two‐dimensional pore structures representing both idealized and realistic geometries were simulated with consideration of different precipitation scenarios and rates. A homogeneous nucleation scenario reproduced patterns observed in previous experimental study showing mixing‐induced precipitation, and a surface growth scenario captured the pattern for mineral precipitation on a substrate with the same or similar mineral structures. In all cases, local precipitation resulted in the reduction in the average porosity of the domain ( Φ ) until the cessation of diffusive transport and the termination of precipitation. The minimum porosity reached was referred to as the critical porosity ( Φ c ). The effective diffusivity ( D eff ) decreased with Φ and dropped sharply to effectively zero, that is, the critical effective diffusivity ( D eff c ), as Φ c was reached. These pore‐scale dynamics can be captured by a revised relationship that explicitly considers the critical porosity and the corresponding effective diffusivity, and the pre‐exponential coefficient and the exponent of the relationship varied with initial pore structure and the precipitation kinetics. Overall, the homogeneous nucleation scenario results in systematically larger Φ c and coefficients that give rise to a sharper decrease in diffusivity as Φ c is approached, compared to the surface growth scenario. The revised relationship was also implemented at continuum scale and used to examine column scale diffusivity change and reactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role and Value of Interregional Transmission in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

Decarbonizing the U.S. energy system entails a significant expansion of wind and solar power and electrification of end-use applications. Achieving both is more efficient and less costly when interregional transmission capacity is expanded, but the fractured nature of grid planning in the United States is often a barrier to such expansion. Here, we explore the role of interregional transmission under a variety of decarbonization scenarios, using a capacity-expansion model to generate co-optimized portfolios of generation, storage, and transmission that meet decarbonization targets and electrification-driven demand. We explore portfolio and cost differences across 92 scenarios, from scenarios with limited transmission expansion to those that include a meshed high-voltage direct current (HVDC) network. In the core decarbonization scenarios, wind capacity expands by ~10x and solar by ~20x compared to 2020, hundreds of gigawatts of battery storage are deployed, and interregional transmission expands by 3-6x. Transmission expansion occurs nationwide but is concentrated between the central "wind belt" and eastern load centers. The HVDC scenarios result in hundreds of billions of dollars of savings in total system cost, demonstrating the economic benefits of interregional transmission in support of rapid decarbonization.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) support national and international policy making for sustainable development. They rely on quantitative scenarios produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to assess alternative futures. IAM-based scenarios can provide a coherent assessment framework that integrates different subsystems and their interactions. However, these top-down approaches have limited ability to represent key local dynamics, unexpected events, or the role of diverse actors. Other methods, including participatory scenarios, can help co-create narratives that emphasize diverse contents with clear links to existing decision-making. However, these bottom-up approaches provide only limited insight into global processes and are not constrained by measurable parameters. In our review, we identify four key challenges for current GEA scenarios: surprise, scale, diversity and imagination. We illustrate how these challenges can be overcome by combining top-down and bottom-up scenario approaches and conclude with a call to action for future research to take on this trans-disciplinary challenge.

Pereira, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scoping study of lower hybrid current drive for CFETR

The paper assesses the applicability of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) for two potential operating scenarios for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR): the “hybrid” scenario in which some of the plasma current is sustained by the Ohmic transformer, and the fully non-inductive “steady state” scenario. Here, the πScope workflow engine was used to set up a large number of ray tracing/Fokker-Planck simulations (> 10 4 ) with parametric scans in the antenna poloidal position and launched parallel refractive index (n || ) for both the hybrid and steady state scenarios. Modeling predicts efficient off-axis current drive (1.3 MA for 20 MW launched power) with a peak near ρ of 0.6-0.65 for waves launched from the high field side (HFS). Waves launched from the low field side (LFS) damp at larger radius (ρ > 0.73) with similar efficiency to HFS launch. Stability analysis of the CFETR scenarios favors current drive profiles peaked near the mid-radius, suggesting that HFS launch is preferable due to the current drive location. The effect of wave scattering from density blobs in the edge/scrape-off-layer region was assessed through rotation of the perpendicular wavenumber at the ray origin. Simulations show that this effect can be quite large both in efficiency and damping location, however by adjusting the launched n|| much of the unperturbed performance can be recovered.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIII-D research advancing the physics basis for optimizing the tokamak approach to fusion energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for the operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-I p steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. For the non-nuclear phase of ITER, two actuators are identified to lower the L–H threshold power in hydrogen plasmas. With this physics understanding and suite of capabilities, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q = 10 in ITER at ~8 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-I p beam injection was coupled to a radiative divertor. The hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for anomalous current diffusion, using off-axis current drive actuators. Also, a controller to assess proximity to stability limits and regulate β N in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally, innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of divertor heat flux width for ITER pre-fusion power operation using BOUT++ transport code

Prediction of divertor heat flux width is performed for the first and the second pre-fusion power operation (PFPO) phases specified in the new ITER research plan using BOUT++ transport code (Li et al 2018 Comput. Phys. Commun.228 69–82). Here the initial plasma profiles inside the separatrix are taken from CORSICA scenario studies. Transport coefficients in transport code are calculated by inverting the plasma profiles inside the separatrix and are assumed to be constants in the scrape-off-layer. An anomalous thermal diffusivity scan is performed with E × B and magnetic drifts. The results in two scenarios identifying two distinct regimes: a drift-dominant regime when diffusivity is smaller than the respective critical thermal diffusivity χ c and a turbulence-dominant regime when diffusivity is larger than it. The Goldston heuristic drift model and the ITPA multi-machine experimental scaling yield a lower limit of the width λ q . From transport simulations, we obtain the critical thermal diffusivity χ c = 0.5 m 2 s –1 for the PFPO-1 scenario with toroidal magnetic field B = 1.77 T and plasma current I p = 5 MA, and χ c = 0.3 m 2 s –1 for the PFPO-2 scenario with toroidal magnetic field B = 2.65 T and plasma current I p = 7.5 MA. Separatrix temperature and collisionality also have a significant impact on the heat flux width in the drift-dominant regime. The investigation clearly yields a scaling for critical thermal diffusivity ${\chi }_{\text{c}}\propto {A}^{1/2}/(Z{\left(1+Z\right)}^{\frac{1}{2}}{B}_{\text{p}}^{2})$ using ITER scenarios with fixed safety factor q 95 , major radius R, aspect ratio R/a, and the separatrix temperature T sep , and establishes the connection with CFETR and C-Mod discharges. This scaling implies that for a given tokamak device with q 95 , R, R/a, and T sep fixed, a reduction of poloidal magnetic field by a factor of 3 leads to a 9 times higher critical value of thermal diffusivity χ c , possibly yielding a transition from turbulence- to drift-dominant regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-linear MHD modelling of edge localized modes suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations in ITER

Edge localized modes (ELMs) suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was studied with the non-linear magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) code JOREK for the ITER H-mode scenarios at 15 MA, 12.5 MA, 10 MA/5.3 T. In this study, the main aim was to demonstrate that ELMs can be suppressed by RMPs while the divertor 3D footprints of heat and particle fluxes remain within divertor material limits. The unstable peeling–ballooning modes responsible for ELMs without RMPs were modelled first for each scenario using numerically accessible parameters for ITER. Then the stabilization of ELMs by RMPs was modelled with the same parameters. RMP spectra, optimized by the linear MHD MARS-F code, with main toroidal harmonics N = 2, N = 3, N = 4 have been used as boundary conditions of the computational domain of JOREK, including realistic RMP coils, main plasma, scrape off layer (SOL) divertor and realistic first wall. The model includes all relevant plasma flows: toroidal rotation, two fluid diamagnetic effects and neoclassical poloidal friction. With RMPs, the main toroidal harmonic and the non-linearly coupled harmonics remain dominant at the plasma edge, producing saturated modes and a continuous MHD turbulent transport thereby avoiding ELM crashes in all scenarios considered here. The threshold for ELM suppression was found at a maximum RMP coils current of 45 kAt–60 kAt compared to the coils maximum capability of 90 kAt. In the high beta poloidal steady-state 10 MA/5.3 T scenario, a rotating QH-mode without ELMs was observed even without RMPs. In this scenario with RMPs N = 3, N = 4 at 20 kAt maximum current in RMP coils, similar QH-mode behaviour was observed however with dominant edge harmonic corresponding to the main toroidal number of RMPs. The present MHD modelling was limited in time by few tens of ms after RMPs were switched on until the magnetic energy of the modes saturates. As a consequence the thermal energy was still evolving on this time scale, far from the ITER confinement time scale and hence only the form of 3D footprints on the divertor targets can be indicated within this set-up. Also note, that the divertor physics was missing in this model, so realistic values of fluxes are out of reach in this modelling. However the stationary 3D divertor and particle fluxes could be simply extrapolated from these results to the stationary situation considering that a large power fraction should be radiated in the core and SOL and only about 50 MW power is going to the divertor, which is an arbitrary, but reasonable number used here. The 3D footprints with RMPs show the characteristic splitting with the main RMP toroidal symmetry. The maximum radial extension of the footprints typically was ~20 cm in inner divertor and ~40 cm in outer divertor with stationary heat fluxes decreasing further out from the initial strike point from ~5 MW m ₋2 to ~1 MW m ₋2 assuming a total power in the divertor and walls is 50 MW. The heat fluxes remain within the divertor target and baffle areas, however with rather small margin in the outer divertor which could be an issue for the first wall especially in transient regimes when part of the plasma thermal energy is released due to switching on the RMP coils. This fact should be considered when RMPs are applied with a more favorable application before or soon after the L–H transition, although optimization is required to avoid increasing the L–H power threshold with RMPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiative pulsed L-mode operation in ARC-class reactors

Abstract A new ARC-class, highly-radiative, pulsed, L-mode, burning plasma scenario is developed and evaluated as a candidate for future tokamak reactors. Pulsed inductive operation alleviates the stringent current drive requirements of steady-state reactors, and operation in L-mode affords ELM-free access to ∼ 90 % core radiation fractions, significantly reducing the divertor power handling requirements. In this configuration the fusion power density can be maximized despite L-mode confinement by utilizing high-field to increase plasma densities and current. This allows us to obtain high gain in robust scenarios in compact devices with P fus > 1000 MW despite low confinement. We demonstrate the feasibility of such scenarios here; first by showing that they avoid violating 0D tokamak limits, and then by performing self-consistent integrated simulations of flattop operation including neoclassical and turbulent transport, magnetic equilibrium, and radiofrequency current drive models. Finally we examine the potential effect of introducing negative triangularity with a 0D model. Our results show high-field radiative pulsed L-mode scenarios are a promising alternative to the typical steady state advanced tokamak scenarios which have dominated tokamak reactor development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conceptual design of DIII-D experiments to diagnose the lifetime of spin polarized fuel

Abstract In magnetic fusion experiments, the cross sections for the D-T and D- 3 He fusion reactions are increased by as much as 50% if the fuel remains spin polarized parallel to the magnetic field. The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility of lifetime measurements of spin polarization, in magnetic fusion relevant conditions, on the DIII-D tokamak using relative changes in charged fusion product (CFP) loss measurements that depend upon the differential fusion cross section d σ /dΩ. Relative measurements that capture changes in the escaping CFP pitch, poloidal, and energy distributions are studied in two realistic TRANSP calculated plasma scenarios: (a) vector-polarized 3 He and D pellets are injected into a hot hydrogen plasma to produce thermonuclear reactions, and (b) a tensor-polarized deuterium pellet is injected into an L-mode hydrogen background plasma that includes unpolarized 3 He neutral beam injection. Ideal CFP signals in both scenarios show substantial pitch sensitivity to polarization for 14.7 MeV proton detection at a poloidal angle of − 56 ∘ (on the outer wall in the ion ∇ B direction), and strong sensitivity to polarization for 3.6 MeV alpha flux detection by an array of poloidal detectors. Energy-resolved measurements of 14.7 MeV protons are also sensitive to the degree of polarization for the − 56 ∘ port in the beam-plasma scenario. A realistic assessment of CFP signals in the thermonuclear scenario show count rates in the range of 2 × 10 4 cps for pitch-resolved proton detection and 2 × 10 5 cps for alpha flux measurements. Reduced chi-squared χ r 2 calculations show polarization lifetime measurements are feasible for either proton or alpha detection of both enhanced or suppressed polarization for the thermonuclear scenario. Measurements of gamma rays produced in the weak D + 3 He → γ + 5 Li branch complement the CFP measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Formation of S0s in extreme environments Ⅲ: the role of environment in the formation pathways

It is well established that there are at least two main channels to form lenticular (or S0) galaxies. The first, which we name ‘faded spiral’ scenario, includes quenching events that led to consumption or removal of gas from a spiral progenitor. The second, which we call ‘merger’ scenario, includes merger-like events and interactions between galaxies. Each scenario leaves characteristic signatures in the newly formed lenticular galaxy. However, the conditions that trigger one mechanism over another are still unknown. This paper is the third of a series aimed at understanding the role of the environment in the formation of lenticular galaxies. In this study, we combine the kinematics, morphology, and properties of the stellar populations of 329 S0s from the SAMI and MaNGA surveys in order to highlight the role of the environment in the process. We divide the S0s into two classes (A and B) according to their global properties, that we can associate to the products of a faded spiral scenario (class A) or a merger scenario (class B). Here we then study how the various classes are distributed within different environments. Our study reveals that the ‘faded spiral’ pathway is the most efficient channel to produce S0s, and it becomes more efficient as the mass of the group or cluster or local density of galaxies increase. The merger pathway is also a viable channel, and its efficiency becomes higher with decreasing local density or environment mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Greenhouse gas emissions from the global transportation of crude oil: Current status and mitigation potential

Global crude-oil transportation contributes a significant portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the marine transportation sector. In this work, we first compile a detailed country-level global crude-oil transportation network in 2018 and estimate that the direct and well-to-hull GHG emissions related to crude transportation were 97 and 109 million metric tons, respectively. Combining with the country-specific crude recovery GHG intensities, the consumption-based well-to-country-gate crude-oil GHG intensities are derived for individual countries, ranging from 2.99 to 27.32 g CO 2 eq/MJ, with a global crude-volume-weighted average of 8.67 g CO 2 eq/MJ. We then project the global crude transportation emissions at the regional level in 2050 under a static (no change) scenario (based on current ship energy efficiency) and a sustainable-development (SD) scenario (based on the International Energy Agency's projections of ship energy efficiency and penetration of alternative marine fuels). Results show that the global well-to-hull GHG emissions related to crude transportation would be 82 and 59 million metric tons in 2050 in the static and SD scenarios, respectively. To further evaluate the impact of potential fuel-switching on decarbonizing the crude oil transportation sector, we estimate the GHG emissions for 20 fuel/production options in 2050. We find that, in comparison to the static scenario, ~50% reduction in global well-to-hull GHG emissions from crude transportation could be achieved under the SD scenario if green ammonia further replaces conventional ammonia. The methodology developed here can be applied to other commodities to estimate the emissions associated with their global marine transportation and to evaluate the potential emission mitigation options.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kaon physics without new physics in $$ \varepsilon _K$$

Abstract Despite the observation of significant suppressions of $$b\rightarrow s\mu ^+\mu ^-$$ b → s μ + μ - branching ratios no clear sign of New Physics (NP) has been identified in $$\Delta F=2$$ Δ F = 2 observables $$\Delta M_{d,s}$$ Δ M d , s , $$\varepsilon _K$$ ε K and the mixing induced CP asymmetries $$S_{\psi K_S}$$ S ψ K S and $$S_{\psi \phi }$$ S ψ ϕ . Assuming negligible NP contributions to these observables allows to determine CKM parameters without being involved in the tensions between inclusive and exclusive determinations of $$|V_{cb}|$$ | V cb | and $$|V_{ub}|$$ | V ub | . Furthermore this method avoids the impact of NP on the determination of these parameters present likely in global fits. Simultaneously it provides SM predictions for numerous rare K and B branching ratios that are most accurate to date. Analyzing this scenario within $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ models we point out, following the 2009 observations of Monika Blanke and ours of 2020, that despite the absence of NP contributions to $$\varepsilon _K$$ ε K , significant NP contributions to $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ , $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ , $$K_S\rightarrow \mu ^+\mu ^-$$ K S → μ + μ - , $$K_L\rightarrow \pi ^0\ell ^+\ell ^-$$ K L → π 0 ℓ + ℓ - , $$\varepsilon '/\varepsilon $$ ε ′ / ε and $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K can be present. In the simplest scenario, this is guaranteed, as far as flavour changes are concerned, by a single non-vanishing imaginary left-handed $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ coupling $$g^L_{sd}$$ g sd L . This scenario implies very stringent correlations between the Kaon observables considered by us. In particular, the identification of NP in any of these observables implies automatically NP contributions to the remaining ones under the assumption of non-vanishing flavour conserving $$Z^\prime $$ Z ′ couplings to $$q{\bar{q}}$$ q q ¯ , $$\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ ν ν ¯ , and $$\mu ^+\mu ^-$$ μ + μ - . A characteristic feature of this scenario is a strict correlation between $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ and $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ branching ratios on a branch parallel to the Grossman-Nir bound. Moreover, $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K is automatically suppressed as seems to be required by the results of the RBC-UKQCD lattice QCD collaboration. Furthermore, there is no NP contribution to $$K_L\rightarrow \mu ^+\mu ^-$$ K L → μ + μ - which otherwise would bound NP effects in $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ . Of particular interest are the correlations of $$K^+\rightarrow \pi ^+\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K + → π + ν ν ¯ and $$K_{L}\rightarrow \pi ^0\nu {\bar{\nu }}$$ K L → π 0 ν ν ¯ branching ratios and of $$\Delta M_K$$ Δ M K with the ratio $$\varepsilon '/\varepsilon $$ ε ′ / ε . We investigate the impact of renormalization group effects in the context of the SMEFT on this simple scenario.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗