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NASA NTRS2014

Data Used in Quantified Reliability Models

Data is the crux to developing quantitative risk and reliability models, without the data there is no quantification. The means to find and identify reliability data or failure numbers to quantify fault tree models during conceptual and design phases is often the quagmire that precludes early decision makers consideration of potential risk drivers that will influence design. The analyst tasked with addressing a system or product reliability depends on the availability of data. But, where is does that data come from and what does it really apply to? Commercial industries, government agencies, and other international sources might have available data similar to what you are looking for. In general, internal and external technical reports and data based on similar and dissimilar equipment is often the first and only place checked. A common philosophy is "I have a number - that is good enough". But, is it? Have you ever considered the difference in reported data from various federal datasets and technical reports when compared to similar sources from national and/or international datasets? Just how well does your data compare? Understanding how the reported data was derived, and interpreting the information and details associated with the data is as important as the data itself.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2015

Ultimately Reliable Pyrotechnic Systems

This paper presents the methods by which NASA has designed, built, tested, and certified pyrotechnic devices for high reliability operation in extreme environments and illustrates the potential applications in the oil and gas industry. NASA's extremely successful application of pyrotechnics is built upon documented procedures and test methods that have been maintained and developed since the Apollo Program. Standards are managed and rigorously enforced for performance margins, redundancy, lot sampling, and personnel safety. The pyrotechnics utilized in spacecraft include such devices as small initiators and detonators with the power of a shotgun shell, detonating cord systems for explosive energy transfer across many feet, precision linear shaped charges for breaking structural membranes, and booster charges to actuate valves and pistons. NASA's pyrotechnics program is one of the more successful in the history of Human Spaceflight. No pyrotechnic device developed in accordance with NASA's Human Spaceflight standards has ever failed in flight use. NASA's pyrotechnic initiators work reliably in temperatures as low as -420 F. Each of the 135 Space Shuttle flights fired 102 of these initiators, some setting off multiple pyrotechnic devices, with never a failure. The recent landing on Mars of the Opportunity rover fired 174 of NASA's pyrotechnic initiators to complete the famous '7 minutes of terror.' Even after traveling through extreme radiation and thermal environments on the way to Mars, every one of them worked. These initiators have fired on the surface of Titan. NASA's design controls, procedures, and processes produce the most reliable pyrotechnics in the world. Application of pyrotechnics designed and procured in this manner could enable the energy industry's emergency equipment, such as shutoff valves and deep-sea blowout preventers, to be left in place for years in extreme environments and still be relied upon to function when needed, thus greatly enhancing safety and operational availability.

Scott, John H.↗

NASA NTRS1959

NASA Research Bearing on Jet Engine Reliability

Turbojet engine reliability has long been an intense interest to the military users of this type of aircraft propulsion. With the recent inauguration of commercial jet transport this subject has assumed a new dimension of importance. In January l96 the Lewis Research Center of the NASA (then the MACA) published the results of an extensive study on the factors that affect the opera- center dot tional reliability of turbojet engines (ref. 1). At that time the report was classified Confidential. In July l98 this report was declassified. It is thus appropriate at this time to present some of the highlights of the studies described in the NASA report. In no way is it intended to outline the complete contents of the report; rather it is hoped to direct attention to it among those who are center dot directly concerned with this problem. Since the publication of our study over three years ago, the NASA has completed a number of additional investigations that bear significantly on this center dot subject. A second object of this paper, therefore, is to summarize the results of these recent studies and to interpret their significance in relation to turbojet operational reliability.

Mason, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2015

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reliability of CGA/LGA/HDI Package Board/Assembly (Final Report)

Package manufacturers are now offering commercial-off-the-shelf column grid array (COTS CGA) packaging technologies in high-reliability versions. Understanding the process and quality assurance (QA) indicators for reliability are important for low-risk insertion of these advanced electronics packages. The previous reports, released in January of 2012 and January of 2013, presented package test data, assembly information, and reliability evaluation by thermal cycling for CGA packages with 1752, 1517, 1509, and 1272 inputs/outputs (I/Os) and 1-mm pitch. It presented the thermal cycling (-55C either 100C or 125C) test results for up to 200 cycles. This report presents up to 500 thermal cycles with quality assurance and failure analysis evaluation represented by optical photomicrographs, 2D real time X-ray images, dye-and-pry photomicrographs, and optical/scanning electron Microscopy (SEM) cross-sectional images. The report also presents assembly challenge using reflowing by either vapor phase or rework station of CGA and land grid array (LGA) versions of three high I/O packages both ceramic and plastic configuration. A new test vehicle was designed having high density interconnect (HDI) printed circuit board (PCB) with microvia-in-pad to accommodate both LGA packages as well as a large number of fine pitch ball grid arrays (BGAs). The LGAs either were assembled onto HDI PCB as an LGA or were solder paste print and reflow first to form solder dome on pads before assembly. Both plastic BGAs with 1156 I/O and ceramic LGAs were assembled. It also presented the X-ray inspection results as well as failures due to 200 thermal cycles. Lessons learned on assembly of ceramic LGAs are also presented.

Ghaffaroam. Reza↗

NASA NTRS1970

Reliability Abstracts and Technical Reviews January - December 1970: R70-14805 - R70-15438 - Volume 10, Nos. 1-12

Reliability Abstracts and Technical Reviews is an abstract and critical analysis service covering published and report literature on reliability. The service is designed to provide information on theory and practice of reliability as applied to aerospace and an objective appraisal of the quality, significance, and applicability of the literature abstracted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules, and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

DeMott, Diana L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Reliably Detectable Flaw Size for NDE Methods that Use Calibration

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-1823 and associated mh1823 POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. In this paper, POD analysis is applied to an NDE method, such as eddy current testing, where calibration is used. NDE calibration standards have known size artificial flaws such as electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches and flat bottom hole (FBH) reflectors which are used to set instrument sensitivity for detection of real flaws. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. Therefore, it is important to correlate signal responses from real flaws with signal responses form artificial flaws used in calibration process to determine reliably detectable flaw size.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses

Electronics packaging↗

NASA NTRS2018

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Physics of Failure↗

NASA NTRS2018

2.5/3D Daisy Chain Reliability Evaluation

The objective of this task is to evaluate thermal cycle behavior of advanced 2.5/3D electronics — commercial-off the-shelf (COTS) —packages of different configurations assembled onto printed circuit boards (PCBs). Three key approaches were considered for evaluation. The first approach focused on the through-mold via (TMV™) technology at assembly level. The second approach focused on evaluation of 2.5D (also known as, System in Package (SiP)) in fine pitch ball grid array (FPGA). The third approach focused on evaluation of through-silicone-via (TSV) technologies. This report presents the test results for TMV™ and SiP packaging technologies and reliability, and it also provides lessons learned on quality assurance methods. Specifically, the report presents the test matrix for various 3D TMV™ packaging assembly configurations and reliability characterizations performed under two accelerated thermal cycling (ATC) and accelerated thermal shock cycling (ATSC) conditions. The ATC and ATSC were performed in the range of –55°C to 125°C and –100°C to 100°C, respectively. The report also includes assembly of a SiP— a 60-mm fine-pitch ball-grid array (FPGA) interposer with an IC at the center and six chip-scale package (CSP) daisy chains at the periphery—with package assembly characterizations. After assembly, the daisy chains were subjected to ATCs in the range of –40°C to 125°C for reliability evaluation. Finally, for both TMV™ and SiP packaging configurations, characterizations results by X-ray, optical imaging, and daisy-chain resistance evaluations were also presented.

Ghaffarian, Reza↗

NASA NTRS2019

High Reliability Requires More than Providing Spares

It is sometimes optimistically hoped that a space life support system can be kept working throughout a long duration mission by repairing failed components, as long as sufficient spares are flown. It is usually assumed that the components have constant known failure rates. Then the needed numbers of spares can be computed to have any particular probability that all failed components can be replaced by available spares. This approach can provide high reliability if its favorable assumptions, including constant known failure rates, are satisfied. Other favorable assumptions are that the failures are statistically independent, repair will be successful without causing further failures, and all failures are due to internal component failures. These assumptions are not usually justified. The failure rates may be estimates that are inadequately verified because of insufficient testing. Failure rates may change due to materials substitutions, manufacturing changes, redesigns to fix failures, and new failures caused by redesigns. Failures that are not statistically independent may result from one common cause, such as a design or manufacturing error or a cascade of cause and effect, possibly caused by an external event such as a power outage. Repair may be unsuccessful or cause damage. Many failures occur at component interfaces or at the overall systems level, not within isolated components. Other failures causes are completely external to the system, due to assembly, maintenance, and operational errors or to unexpected environmental challenges. Replacement with sufficient spares can compensate for expected internal component failures but may not be able to cope with unpredictable design and manufacturing flaws, human errors, and environmental impacts. Reliability estimates based on providing sufficient spares to compensate for expected failures may be far too high. They are essentially upper bounds on reliability that might be approached if many frequent but often unconsidered failure causes can be eliminated.

spares↗

NASA NTRS1999

MEMS reliability assurance guidelines for space applications

This guideline was developed as an aid to help in the understanding of Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) reliability and to facilitate the insertion of this technology into high reliability applications. Modeled after the GaAs MMIC Reliability Assurance Guideline for Space Applications by Kayali, et al., is was felt that a guideline would be more advantageous to people than a strict specification.

microelectromechanical↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cost and Reliability Study for a Large Array of Small Reflector Antennas for JPL/NASA Deep Space Network (DSN)

A study is performed to estimate the cost of an array of small aperture reflector antennas to be used instead or in conjunction with the current large reflector antennas of the JPL/NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), for servicing present and future NASA missions which involve smaller spacecraft with limited power and smaller, lower gain antennas. The advantages of the array configuration in terms of cost and reliability are studied. A probabilistic determination of the reliability and availability of the array as a function of the number of array elements and the availability of individual array elements is made. The impact of additional marginal elements on the operational availability of the array is studied. Parametric cost and reliability plots are presented and directions for further investigation are outlined.

Resch, G.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Flash memory reliability NEPP 2008 task final report

This is the preliminary report which is based on the flash memory reliability studies conducted during the first year (2008) of the multi-year NEPP task. The report outlines the technology and reliability challenges for advanced flash memory technologies, summarizes the test results and analyses of reliability characterizations performed on the selected flash memory devices during 2008, and provides the preliminary thoughts on the risk mitigation approaches on using advanced flash memory technologies for space applications.

Chen, Yuan↗

NASA NTRS2009

Long-term reliability of hand-soldering M55365 Ta capacitors

This is a continuation of the report “Effects of Hand Soldering MIL-PRF-55365 Tantalum Capacitors,” which discusses the parametric effects of convection reflow soldering, JPL standard hand soldering, and optimized hand soldering on solid tantalum capacitors. The current focus is determining the long-term reliability effects of the various soldering techniques. Unfortunately, the 100-piece sample size chosen for the highly accelerated life tests was too small to reliably determine the effects of the different soldering techniques on the lifespan of the parts. In hindsight, this likely could have been predicted based on the large alphas and small betas of the Weibull failure distributions discovered during the scouting trials. Now that the effects of inadequate sample size are better understood, an opportunity exists to not only discover whether there are real differences in the reliability associated with the various soldering techniques, but also the potential to discover the voltage acceleration model and the temperature acceleration effect for these capacitors. It is recommended that the testing be repeated with a more appropriate sample size to capture this useful information.

Spence, Penelope↗