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At least 721 records · Page 40

Splitting regions and shrinking islands from higher point constraints

We study constraints from higher-point amplitudes on 2 → 2 scattering in the context of effective field theory (EFT) using the perturbative numerical S-matrix bootstrap. Specifically, we investigate the class of weakly coupled EFTs with amplitudes that obey the hidden zero and split conditions that are known to hold both for Tr(Φ 3 ) theory and for certain string tree amplitudes, including at 4-point the beta function. Requiring the splitting condition for the 5-point amplitude not only fixes nearly all its contact terms, but it also imposes non-linear constraints among the 4-point EFT Wilson coefficients. When included in the bootstrap, the resulting allowed region consistent with positivity is no longer convex but is restricted to a smaller non-convex region — which has a sharp corner near the string beta function! Assuming the absence of an infinite spin tower at the mass gap, the allowed region bifurcates into a trivial region (with states only above a chosen cutoff) and an island that continues to shrink around the string as more constraints are included in the bootstrap. The numerics indicate that in the absence of single-mass infinite spin towers the string beta function is the unique 4-point amplitude compatible with hidden zero and the 5-point splitting constraints. The analysis provides a prototype example for how features of higher-point amplitudes constrain the bootstrap of 4-point amplitudes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

Abstract Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen fixation rates in the Guinea Dome and the equatorial upwelling regions in the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Biological nitrogen fixation is a key process balancing the loss of combined nitrogen in the marine nitrogen cycle. Its relevance in upwelling or high nutrient regions is still unclear, with the few available studies in these regions of the ocean reporting rates that vary widely from below detection limit to > 100 nmol N L −1 d −1 . In the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, two open ocean upwelling systems are active in boreal summer. One is the seasonal equatorial upwelling, where the residual phosphorus associated with aged upwelled waters is suggested to enhance nitrogen fixation in this season. The other is the Guinea Dome, a thermal upwelling dome. We conducted two surveys along 23° W across the Guinea Dome and the Equator from 15° N to 5° S in September 2015 and August–September 2016 with high latitudinal resolution (20–60 nm between stations). The abundance of Trichodesmium colonies was characterized by an Underwater Vision Profiler 5 and the total biological nitrogen fixation in the euphotic layer was measured using the 15 N 2 technique. The highest abundances of Trichodesmium colonies were found in the area of the Guinea Dome (9°–15° N) with a maximum of 3 colonies L −1 near the surface. By contrast, colonies were almost absent in the Equatorial band between 2° N and 5° S. The highest nitrogen fixation rate was measured at the northern edge of the Guinea Dome in 2016 (ca. 31 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). In this region, where diazotrophs thrived on a sufficient supply of both phosphorus and iron, a patchy distribution was unveiled by our increased spatial resolution scheme. In the Equatorial band, rates were considerably lower, ranging from below detection limit to ca. 4 nmol N L −1 d −1 , with a clear difference in magnitude between 2015 (rates close to zero) and 2016 (average rates around 2 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). This difference seemed triggered by a contrasting supply of phosphorus between years. Our study stresses the importance of surveys with sampling at fine-scale spatial resolution, and shows unexpected high variability in the rates of nitrogen fixation in the Guinea Dome, a region where diazotrophy is a significant process supplying new nitrogen into the euphotic layer.

Fernández-Carrera, Ana (ORCID:0000000183470996)↗

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗

Phase equilibria and microstructure evolution in the Ni-rich region of binary Ni-Ce and ternary Ni-Ce-X (X=Al, Nb, Cr, Ti) systems at 900 °C

The equilibrium compositions of all phases in the Ni-rich region of binary Ni-Ce and ternary Ni-Ce-X (X=Al, Nb, Cr, Ti) systems at 900 °C were determined experimentally through isothermal annealing for up to 500 h and compared with currently available computational thermodynamic descriptions. Additionally, the study examined how adding a third element to the binary system affects the microstructure by analyzing changes in the volume fraction of the intermetallic phase in the eutectic region. It was observed that Nb and Ti addition lowered the intermetallic fraction in the eutectic region while Al and Cr addition did the opposite. The fraction of intermetallic phase in the eutectic region is very important because it contributes to extreme brittleness of these alloys. Also, Al, Nb and Ti addition promoted different precipitates upon annealing when added in sufficient amounts. The collected data on composition and phase equilibria provides crucial information for improving the thermodynamic assessments of the binary and ternary alloy systems.

energy dispersive spectrometry↗

Dry cooling retrofits at existing fossil fuel-fired power plants in a water-stressed region: Tradeoffs in water savings, cost, and capacity shortfalls

This study (completed by US Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory) investigates the performance, cost, and generating capacity impacts of switching from wet cooling towers to dry cooling systems to reduce consumptive water use at existing fossil fuel-fired power plants in a water-stressed region. Here, retrofit analysis of dry cooling is conducted on a unit-by-unit basis for both coal-fired and gas-fired power plants in several western U.S. states. Based on regional averages, retrofitting dry cooling systems in lieu of wet cooling towers decreases total annual plant water consumption at existing coal- and gas-fired power plants by 93% and 100%, respectively, while increasing the levelized cost of electricity generation by approximately 12% and 18%, respectively. Over the year, the change in monthly net regional generating capacity from dry cooling retrofits exhibits a seasonal pattern, with the largest shortfalls occurring in July. Dry cooling retrofits thus lead to tradeoffs in water savings, cost, and capacity shortfalls, which vary with power plant characteristics. The tradeoffs identified here can inform electric power industry water management plans and decision-making for alternative cooling options in water-stressed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Determining the tensile strength of fuel surrogate TRISO-coated particle buffer, IPyC, and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions

A novel micro tensile sample fabrication technique for determining the tensile strength of the buffer, IPyC, and buffer -IPyC interlayer regions of surrogate (ZrO2) TRISO fuel particle layers was refined and implemented. Copper micro tensile samples served as baseline materials to verify the methods used. Tensile tests performed in this study, while limited in number, were analyzed using standard and Weibull statistics. As expected, the buffer layer was weakest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 138.70 MPa, and the IPyC layer samples, were strongest, with an average ultimate tensile strength of 189.74 MPa. In the buffer -IPyC interface samples, all breaks occurred in the buffer region, though the average ultimate tensile strength of the samples, 159.80 MPa, was between the pure buffer and IPyC samples. These results suggest the interlayer region has unique properties, perhaps associated with pyrocarbon infiltration into the buffer layer during particle coating. All interlayer samples fractured within the buffer side; however, the stress strain behavior of some of these samples resembled the behavior of the IPyC layer samples. Here, the buffer and IPyC layer strengths had a normal distribution under Weibull analysis, while the interlayer region had a Rayleigh distribution. Further testing is needed to clarify both the standard and Weibull statistical results

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Engineering the beat phenomenon of quasi-Rayleigh waves for regions with minimal Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) amplitude

Surface Acoustic Waves (SAW) are prevalent in a variety of scientific fields. Typically, the ability to manipulate these surface waves has a significant impact on the efficacy of any SAW-based device. In this paper, we present a simple method for designing localized regions that have minimal SAW amplitude. These localized regions have valley-like drops in SAW amplitude and are achieved by using the spatial beat phenomenon of quasi-Rayleigh waves. Controlling the beat phenomenon allows us to manipulate where and how these localized regions appear in the waveguide. In particular, the localized regions can be designed to have variable widths and can be positioned consecutively due to minimal wave scattering. The design methodology and physics are described in detail, and several supplementary simulations are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method. Finally, we briefly discuss how the proposed approach could potentially be exploited to implement a localized high-pass filter and enables SAW wave propagation that avoids surface obstacles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A regional comparison of sub-daily flow variability in regulated and unregulated rivers in the United States

Regulating rivers for hydropower or other purposes can dramatically alter river flow patterns, including creating substantial changes in flow over short, minutes-to-hours-long timespans known as sub-daily flow variability (SDFV). The impacts of flexible hydropower production on flow and aquatic organisms are increasingly documented in research. However, the degree to which flow alteration relates to different hydropower operational modes in distinct geographical regions and seasons is not well understood. This study offers a methodology for regional- and species-appropriate evaluations of potential impacts of flow on fish based on sub-daily flow characteristics of hydropower operational modes. We analyzed 15-min discharge data between 2018 and 2021 from 69 USGS stream gages to compare SDFV in hydropeaking, run-of-river, and unregulated systems in the US Southeast and Pacific Northwest. Regulated systems exhibited significant SDFV downstream from hydropower facilities relative to unregulated systems, but specific impacts differed between regions. Regulated systems in the Southeast were characterized by high flow coefficients of variation and ratios (hydropeaking only) and extended durations of daily upramping flow phases. Regulated systems in the Pacific Northwest were characterized by many short flow phases per day and large portions of the day spent upramping. Pacific Northwest unregulated systems displayed the strongest seasonal flow patterns while Southeastern hydropeaking systems displayed the greatest SDFV. Given that SDFV impacts multiple dimensions of fish ecology, region-specific sub-daily flow signatures have important implications for understanding and mitigating potential community-, species-, and age-specific effects on fish in different parts of the country.

Fish↗

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture↗

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Bukovsky, Melissa S.↗

Automated Classification of Plasma Regions Using 3D Particle Energy Distributions

We investigate the properties of the ion sky maps produced by the Dual Ion Spectrometers (DIS) from the Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI). We have trained a convolutional neural network classifier to predict four regions crossed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) on the dayside magnetosphere: solar wind, ion foreshock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause using solely DIS spectrograms. The accuracy of the classifier is urn:x-wiley:21699380:media:jgra56742:jgra56742-math-0001%. We use the classifier to detect mixed plasma regions, in particular to find the bow shock regions. A similar approach can be used to identify the magnetopause crossings and reveal regions prone to magnetic reconnection. Data processing through the trained classifier is fast and efficient and thus can be used for classification for the whole MMS database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ice Nucleating Particle Connections to Regional Argentinian Land Surface Emissions and Weather During the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment

Abstract Here, we present a multi‐season study of ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) active via the immersion freezing mechanism, which took place in north‐central Argentina, a worldwide hotspot for mesoscale convective storms. INPs were measured untreated, after heating to 95°C, and after hydrogen peroxide digestion. No seasonal cycle of INP concentrations was observed. Heat labile INPs, which we define as “biological” herein, dominated the population active at −5 to −20°C, while non‐heat‐labile organic INPs (decomposed by peroxide) dominated at lower temperatures, from −20 to −28°C. Inorganic INPs (remaining after peroxide digestion), were minor contributors to the overall INP activity. Biological INP concentration active around −12°C peaked during rain events and under high relative humidity, reflecting emission mechanisms independent of the background aerosol concentration. The ratio of non‐heat‐labile organic and inorganic INPs was generally constant, suggesting they originated from the same source, presumably from regional arable topsoil based on air mass histories. Single particle mass spectrometry showed that soil particles aerosolized from a regionally common agricultural topsoil contained known mineral INP sources (K‐feldspar and illite) as well as a significant organic component. The INP activity observed in this study correlates well with agricultural soil INP activities from this and other regions of the world, suggesting that the observed INP spectra might be typical of many arable landscapes. These results demonstrate the strong influence of regional continental landscapes, emitting INPs of types that are not yet well represented in global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aridification of Colorado River Basin's Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation

Abstract The Colorado River Basin is an important natural resource for the semi‐arid southwestern United States (US), where it provides water to more than 40 million people. While nearly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming has occurred across this region from the 1880s to 2021, climate models show little agreement in the precipitation change during the same historical period, with no trend in the mean of the latest (sixth) generation of Global Climate Models. As such, here we focus on how the CO 2 increase and associated anthropogenic warming over the historical period has impacted runoff across the Colorado Basin. We find that the Colorado Basin's runoff over the historical period has decreased by 8.1% per degree Celsius of warming (°C −1 ). However, the magnitude of this sensitivity is reduced to 6.8% °C −1 when considering vegetation response to historical CO 2 . For present‐day conditions, this translates to runoff reductions of 10.3% due to anthropogenic increases in both temperature and CO 2 since 1880. We demonstrate that Colorado Basin's natural flow has been decreased by roughly the storage of Lake Mead during the 2000–2021 megadrought due to this long term anthropogenic influence, suggesting the basin's first shortage in 2021 would likely not have occurred without anthropogenic warming. We further show warming has led to disproportionate aridification in snowpack regions, causing runoff to decline at double the rate relative to non‐snowpack regions. Thus, despite only making up ∼30% of the basin's drainage area, 86% of runoff decreases in the Colorado Basin is driven by water loss in snowpack regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weather Systems Connecting Modes of Climate Variability to Regional Hydroclimate Extremes

Abstract Weather system clustering provides a high‐level summary of regional meteorological conditions. Most quantitative clustering schemes focus on precipitation alone, which does not sufficiently describe the meteorological conditions driving hydroclimate variability. This study presents the Weather Anomaly Clustering (WAC‐hydro), which extends the existing capability of predicting weather systems to predicting hydroclimate variability. Focusing on both precipitation and temperature predictions, WAC‐hydro identifies 12 clusters of daily weather anomaly modes in the US Pacific Northwest Puget Sound region during 1981–2020. The influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on regional precipitation can be well approximated by their modulation on the weather clusters. Within each weather cluster, local factors such as topography only play a secondary role in the hydrologic variability. The weather clusters highlight two types of flood‐inducing regional weather conditions, one causing floods by inducing positive precipitation anomalies and the other causing floods through combined precipitation and temperature‐induced rain‐on‐snow effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quasilinear Analysis in the Source Region of Jovian Hectometric Emission Associated With Upward Electron Beams

Abstract Intense upward electron beams were measured by the Juno JADE instrument in the northern hemisphere, low‐latitude auroral zone source region. In this study we report on how these electron beams interact with plasma near and within the Jovian hectometric (HOM) emission (1 MHz 5 MHz) source region. Within the source region large upward loss cones are observed in the northern polar region at radial distances of 2Rj, magnetic latitude of . Intense, narrow electron beams ( 3 keV) are then observed, but within one second wave‐particle scattering is observed, filling the loss cone to energies 50 keV. These energies persist for several seconds before fading, leaving an empty loss cone again. The loss cone provides a free‐energy source for HOM emission resulting from the cyclotron maser instability. We use quasilinear analysis to examine the generation of HOM and the dynamics of wave‐particle interaction of the electron beams with HOM, and the generation via Landau interaction of whistler mode emission. The dynamic spectrum of the HOM emission generated by the loss‐cone electrons as well as that of the low‐frequency whistler‐mode waves generated by the up‐going electron beam can be constructed by quasilinear theory, which compare well with observation. The saturated state of the energetic electron velocity distribution function constructed via quasilinear theory also compare reasonably with observation.

Yoon, P. H. [Institute for Physical Science and Te↗

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗