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The Land Ice Representation in the NASA Goddard Seasonal Forecasting System

Models used in seasonal forecasting systems have aimed for a level of sophistication comparable to Earth system models by incorporating complex physical processes, including those relevant to the polar regions. Here, we examine the polar surface climate in version 3 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction system (GEOS S2S v3). The model is composed of the ⅟₂̊ resolution Jason4.0version of the GEOS AGCM and the MOM5 ocean model at ⅟₄̊ resolution. The GEOSS2S model incorporates interactive aerosols and two-moment cloud microphysics. As compared to version 2, the model incorporates improved radiative transfer and are designed diurnal cycle atmosphere-ocean interface layer. This study aims to understand how the version 3 model compares with version 2, and with contemporary Earth system models.

Richard I Cullather↗

DOE OSTI2025

Source attribution of near-surface ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province of China over 2013–2019

Near-surface ozone (O3) is one of the most severe air pollutants in China, particularly over densely populated Jiangsu Province in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, an O3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry-climate model to quantify the source contributions of various emission sectors and regions for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to O3 concentrations in Jiangsu Province during 2013–2019. The results show that the near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province is mainly contributed by surrounding and remote anthropogenic NOx emissions through long-range transport. Local anthropogenic NOx emissions account for only 13 % and 18 % of the annual and summertime mean near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the surface transportation, industry, and energy sectors account for 21 %, 22 % and 20 % of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs emissions each explains one-third of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu, while methane and stratospheric chemical production contribute 21 % and 6 %, respectively. The sources from stratospheric production, aircraft, lightning, and foreign emissions are the primary contributors to O3 in the mid- and high troposphere. During high pollution days in Jiangsu Province, the near-surface O3 concentrations increase with the maximum exceeding 20 ppb, which is attributed to both the enhanced photochemical production and regional transport in favorable meteorological conditions.

ozone pollution↗

DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Laboratory for Atmospheres 2008 Technical Highlights

The 2008 Technical Highlights describes the efforts of all members of the Laboratory for Atmospheres. Their dedication to advancing Earth Science through conducting research, developing and running models, designing instruments, managing projects, running field campaigns, and numerous other activities, is highlighted in this report. The Laboratory for Atmospheres (Code 613) is part of the Earth Sciences Division (Code 610), formerly the Earth Sun Exploration Division, under the Sciences and Exploration Directorate (Code 600) based at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. In line with NASA s Exploration Initiative, the Laboratory executes a comprehensive research and technology development program dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets. The research program is aimed at understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth s climate; predicting the weather and climate of Earth; understanding the structure, dynamics, and radiative properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; understanding atmospheric chemistry, especially the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and advancing our understanding of physical properties of Earth s atmosphere. The research program identifies problems and requirements for atmospheric observations via satellite missions. Laboratory scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology for remote sensing of the atmosphere. Laboratory members conduct field measurements for satellite data calibration and validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud-resolving models, and development of next-generation Earth system models. Interdisciplinary research is carried out in collaboration with other laboratories and research groups within the Earth Sciences Division, across the Sciences and Exploration Directorate, and with partners in universities and other Government agencies. The Laboratory for Atmospheres is a vital participant in NASA s research agenda. Our Laboratory often has relatively large programs, sizable satellite missions, and observational campaigns that require the cooperative and collaborative efforts of many scientists. We ensure an appropriate balance between our scientists responsibility for these large collaborative projects and their need for an active individual research agenda. This balance allows members of the Laboratory to continuously improve their scientific credentials. Members of the Laboratory interact with the general public to support a wide range of interests in the atmospheric sciences. Among other activities, the Laboratory raises the public s awareness of atmospheric science by presenting public lectures and demonstrations, by making scientific data available to wide audiences, by teaching, and by mentoring students and teachers. The Laboratory makes substantial efforts to attract new scientists to the various areas of atmospheric research. We strongly encourage the establishment of partnerships with Federal and state agencies that have operational responsibilities to promote the societal application of our science products. This report describes our role in NASA s mission, gives a broad description of our research, and summarizes our scientists major accomplishments during calendar year 2008. The report also contains useful information on human resources, scientific interactions, and outreach activities.

Cote, Charles E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Influence of the Solar Proton Events and Ground Level Enhancement in January 2005

Solar eruptions in early 2005 led substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the January 16-21 period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production ofHO(x)(H, OH, BO2)and NO(x)(N, NO, NO2), which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) showed large enhancements in mesospheric HO(x) and NO(x) constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due 10 these solar proton events (SPEs). The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH throughout the mesosphere in the 60-82.5degN latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the Jan.16-2l,2005 period, in reasonable agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. Mesospheric HO2 is also predicted to be increased by the SPEs, however, the modeled HO2 results are somewhat larger than the MLS measurements. These HO(x) enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40% throughout most of the Northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 ppt y in the lowermost mesosphere over the Jan. 16-18, 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of more than twice that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3) by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during January 16-29, 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 changes in the upper stratosphere during this time period. However due to the small loss rates during winter, polar mesospheric enhancements of NO(x) are computed to be greater than 50 ppbv during the SPE period. Computed NO(x)increases, which were statistically significant at the 95% level, lasted about a month past the SPEs. The SCISAT-I Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) NO(x) measurements and MIPAS NO, measurements for the polar Northern Hemisphere are in reasonable agreement with these predictions. An extremely large ground level enhancement (GLE) occurred during the SPE period on January 20, 2005. We find that protons of energies 300 to 20,000 MeV, not normally included in our computations, led to enhanced lower stratospheric odd nitrogen concentrations of less than 0.1% as a result of this GLE.

Jackman, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: Part III. Using Combined PCA to Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of MODIS, MISR and OMI Aerosol Optical Depth

Satellite measurements of global aerosol properties are very useful in constraining aerosol parameterization in climate models. The reliability of different data sets in representing global and regional aerosol variability becomes an essential question. In this study, we present the results of a comparison using combined principal component analysis (CPCA), applied to monthly mean, mapped (Level 3) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). This technique effectively finds the common space-time variability in the multiple data sets by decomposing the combined AOD field. The results suggest that all of the sensors capture the globally important aerosol regimes, including dust, biomass burning, pollution, and mixed aerosol types. Nonetheless, differences are also noted. Specifically, compared with MISR and OMI, MODIS variability is significantly higher over South America, India, and the Sahel. MODIS deep blue AOD has a lower seasonal variability in North Africa, accompanied by a decreasing trend that is not found in either MISR or OMI AOD data. The narrow swath of MISR results in an underestimation of dust variability over the Taklamakan Desert. The MISR AOD data also exhibit overall lower variability in South America and the Sahel. OMI does not capture the Russian wild fire in 2010 nor the phase shift in biomass burning over East South America compared to Central South America, likely due to cloud contamination and the OMI row anomaly. OMI also indicates a much stronger (boreal) winter peak in South Africa compared with MODIS and MISR.

satellite observation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Atmospheric Research 2014 Technical Highlights

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Division's goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various Laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 20-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various Laboratories. This data shows that the scientific work being conducted in the Laboratories is competitive with the work being done elsewhere in universities and other government agencies. The office of Deputy Director for Atmospheric Research will strive to maintain this record by rigorously monitoring and promoting quality while emphasizing coordination and integration among atmospheric disciplines. Also, an appropriate balance will be maintained between the scientists' responsibility for large collaborative projects and missions and their need to carry out active science research as a principal investigator. This balance allows members of the Laboratories to improve their scientific credentials, and develop leadership potentials. Interdisciplinary research is carried out in collaboration with other laboratories and research groups within the Earth Sciences Division, across the Sciences and Exploration Directorate, and with partners in universities and other government agencies. Members of the Laboratories interact with the general public to support a wide range of interests in the atmospheric sciences. Among other activities, the Laboratories raise the public's awareness of atmospheric science by presenting public lectures and demonstrations, by making scientific data available to wide audiences, by teaching, and by mentoring students and teachers. The Atmosphere Laboratories make substantial efforts to attract and recruit new scientists to the various areas of atmospheric research. We strongly encourage the establishment of partnerships with Federal and state agencies that have operational responsibilities to promote the societal application of our science products. This report describes our role in NASA's mission, provides highlights of our research scope and activities, and summarizes our scientists' major accomplishments during calendar year 2014. The composition of the organization is shown in Figure 1.2 for each code. This report is published in a printed version with an electronic version on our atmospheres Web site, http://atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

Technical↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of Dust on the Martian Polar Vortices

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce transient vortex warming events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

Guzewich, Scott D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Atmospheric Research 2016 Technical Highlights

Atmospheric↗

NASA NTRS2022

Using Atmospheric Trace Gas Vertical Profiles to Evaluate Model Fluxes: A Case Study of Arctic-Cap Observations and Geos Simulations for the ABoVE Domain

Accurate estimates of carbon–climate feedbacks require an independent means for evaluating surface flux models at regional scales. The altitude-integrated enhancement (AIE) derived from the Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project demonstrates the utility of this bulk quantity for surface flux model evaluation. This bulk quantity leverages background mole fraction values from the middle free troposphere, is agnostic to uncertainties in boundary layer height, and can be derived from model estimates of mole fractions and vertical gradients. To demonstrate the utility of the bulk quantity, six airborne profiling surveys of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) throughout Alaska and northwestern Canada between April and November 2017 were completed as part of NASA’s Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). The Arctic-CAP sampling strategy involved acquiring vertical profiles of CO2, CH4, and CO from the surface to 5 km altitude at 25 sites around the ABoVE domain on a 4- to 6-week time interval. All Arctic-CAP measurements were compared to a global simulation using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system. Comparisons of the AIE bulk quantity from aircraft observations and GEOS simulations of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO highlight the fidelity of the modeled surface fluxes. The model–data comparison over the ABoVE domain reveals that while current state-of-the-art models and flux estimates are able to capture broad-scale spatial and temporal patterns in near-surface CO2 and CH4 concentrations, more work is needed to resolve fine-scale flux features that are captured in CO observations

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

DVMDOSTEM v0.8.3: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics

The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.

Carman, Tobey B. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Loading to Western Arctic Rivers

The mobilization and land-to-ocean transfer of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic watersheds is intricately linked with the region's climate and water cycle, and furthermore at risk of changes from climate warming and associated impacts. This study quantifies model-simulated estimates of runoff, surface and active layer leachate DOC concentrations and loadings to western Arctic rivers, specifically for basins that drain into coastal waters between and including the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers. Model validation leverages data from other field measurements, synthesis studies, and modeling efforts. The simulations effectively quantify DOC leaching in surface and subsurface runoff and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings reported from other studies that use river-based measurements. A marked east-west gradient in simulated spring and summer DOC concentrations of 24 drainage basins on the North Slope of Alaska is captured by the modeling, consistent with independent data derived from river sampling. Simulated loadings for the Mackenzie and Yukon show reasonable agreement with estimates of DOC export for annual totals and four of the six seasonal comparisons. Nearly equivalent loading occurs to rivers which drain north to the Beaufort Sea and west to the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The modeling framework provides a basis for understanding carbon export to coastal waters and for assessing impacts of hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw with ongoing warming in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Understanding of Multicentury Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Strong Warming in the Coupled CESM2‐CISM2 With Regional Grid Refinement

The simulation of ice sheet‐climate interactions, such as surface mass balance fluxes, is sensitive to model grid resolution. Here we simulate the multi‐century evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and its interaction with the climate using the Community Earth System Model version 2.2 (CESM2.2) including an interactive GrIS component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) under an idealized warming scenario (atmospheric CO 2 increases by 1% yr -1 until quadrupling the pre‐industrial level and then is held fixed). A variable‐resolution (VR) grid with 1/4° regional refinement over the broader Arctic and 1° resolution elsewhere is applied to the atmosphere and land components, and the results are compared with conventional 1° lat‐lon grid simulations to investigate the impact of grid refinement. Compared with the 1° runs, the VR run features a slower rate of surface melt, especially over the western and northern GrIS, where the ice surface slopes gently toward the periphery. This difference pattern originates primarily from higher snow albedo and, thus, weaker albedo feedback in the VR run. The VR grid better captures the CISM ice sheet topography by reducing elevation discrepancies between CAM and CISM and is, therefore, less reliant on the downscaling algorithm, which is known to underestimate albedo gradients. The sea level rise contribution from the GrIS in the VR run is 53 mm by year 150 and 831 mm by year 350, approximately 40% and 20% less than that of the 1° runs, respectively.

Earth System Model↗

NASA NTRS2018

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In addition, a comparison of evapotranspiration and soil moisture estimates over peatlands will be presented, albeit only with limited ground-based validation data. We will discuss strengths and weaknesses of the new model by focusing on time series of specific validation sites.

Bechtold, M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models

Cloud feedback remains the largest source of uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies have attempted to narrow uncertainties in cloud feedback and ECS by proposing observable metrics with high skill at predicting future climate, referred to as emergent constraints. These constraints are often associated with clouds, convection, and circulation, and are interrelated. However, physical explanations for these connections remain unclear. Here, we propose a new mechanism relating convection and clouds across multiple climate models. Some models show overly active deep convection on daily timescales in the subtropical low cloud regions, which contributes to weaker subsidence inversion and smaller amounts of low-level clouds. Such models predict smaller shortwave (SW) cloud feedback. Using precipitation frequency in these regions as an emergent constraint, encapsulating this mechanism, models with lower SW cloud feedback (<0.50 W m -2 °C - 1) are found to exhibit erroneously frequent convection. Our results suggest that further improvements in understanding and better modeling of cloud and convective systems are necessary for accurate climate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Study of the Sources of Upper Tropospheric Ozone Over The Atlantic, with Emphasis on Interhemispheric Asymmetries

Measurements of ozone and aerosols from ships transecting the Atlantic Ocean reveal considerable interhemispheric asymmetries in the vertical structure of the ozone distribution. There is much more upper tropospheric ozone to the South of the Equator than in the northern hemisphere. These profiles suggest that the air in the southern hemispheric tropics and subtropics has a source in the stratosphere, while that in the northern hemisphere originates in the boundary layer. A model experiment designed to investigate this problem will be discussed. They are based on a new general circulation model, based on a Finite-Volume dynamical core and the physical parametrizations from the Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model simulates a climatological state in reasonable agreement with observations, comparable to other contemporary climate models, but has a much more accurate transport capability than most other present-day models. The experiment involves using a suite of tracers, designed to highlight air from different source regions. Some of these (water vapor and ozone) represent real atmospheric quantities, while others are markers which indicate whether the air originates in the stratosphere, the boundary layer, or has traversed regions of convection (for example). The experiments were run for periods of up to one month, initialized from snapshots from a long climate integration of the model. A sample of results will be presented, chosen to illustrate the different sources of air in the upper troposphere and the physical mechanisms by which these air parcels arrived there.

Pawson, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗