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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Sorted-cell proteomics reveals an AT1-associated epithelial cornification phenotype and suggests endothelial redox imbalance in human bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a neonatal lung disease characterized by inflammation and scarring leading to long-term tissue damage. Previous whole tissue proteomics identified BPD-specific proteome changes and cell type shifts. Little is known about the proteome-level changes within specific cell populations in disease. Here, we sorted epithelial (EPI) and endothelial (ENDO) cell populations based on their differential surface markers from normal and BPD human lungs. Using a low-input compatible sample preparation method (MicroPOT), proteins were extracted and digested into peptides and subjected to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) proteome analysis. Of the 4,970 proteins detected, 293 were modulated in abundance or detection in the EPI population and 422 were modulated in ENDO cells. Modulation of proteins associated with actin-cytoskeletal function, such as SCEL, LMO7, and TBA1B was observed in the BPD EPIs. Using confocal imaging and analysis, we validated the presence of aberrant multilayer-like structures comprising SCEL and LMO7, known to be associated with epidermal cornification, in the human BPD lung. This is the first report of the accumulation of cornification-associated proteins in BPD. Their localization in the alveolar parenchyma, primarily associated with alveolar type 1 (AT1) cells, suggests a role in the BPD postinjury response. In the ENDOs, redox balance and mitochondrial function pathways were modulated. Alternative mRNA splicing and cell proliferative functions were elevated in both populations, suggesting potential dysregulation of cell progenitor fate. This study characterized the proteome of epithelial and endothelial cells from the BPD lung for the first time, identifying population-specific changes in BPD pathogenesis.

BPD↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Factors and Trends for HPV-Associated Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms among Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors

Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMN; new cancers that arise after an original diagnosis) contribute to premature mortality among adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. Because of the high population prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, we identify demographic and clinical risk factors for HPV-associated SMNs (HPV-SMN) among AYA cancer survivors in the SEER-9 registries diagnosed from 1976 to 2015. Outcomes included any HPV-SMN, oropharyngeal-SMN, and cervical-SMN. Follow-up started 2 months after their original diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) compared risk between AYA survivors and general population. Age-period-cohort (APC) models examined trends over time. Fine and Gray's models identified therapy effects controlling for cancer and demographic confounders. Of 374,408 survivors, 1,369 had an HPV-SMN, occurring on average 5 years after first cancer. Compared with the general population, AYA survivors had 70% increased risk for any HPV-SMN [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61–1.79] and 117% for oropharyngeal-SMN (95% CI, 2.00–2.35); cervical-SMN risk was generally lower in survivors (SIR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.95), but Hispanic AYA survivors had a 8.4 significant increase in cervical-SMN (SIR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01–2.06). AYAs first diagnosed with Kaposi sarcoma, leukemia, Hodgkin, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had increased HPV-SMN risks compared with the general population. Oropharyngeal-SMN incidence declined over time in APC models. Chemotherapy and radiation were associated with any HPV-SMN among survivors with first HPV-related cancers, but not associated among survivors whose first cancers were not HPV-related. HPV-SMN in AYA survivors are driven by oropharyngeal cancers despite temporal declines in oropharyngeal-SMN. Hispanic survivors are at risk for cervical-SMN relative to the general population. Encouraging HPV vaccination and cervical and oral cancer screenings may reduce HPV-SMN burden among AYA survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delayed access to feed early post-hatch affects the development and maturation of gastrointestinal tract microbiota in broiler chickens

Background: The first two weeks of post-hatch (PH) growth in broilers (meat-type birds) are critical for gut development and microbiota colonization. In the current broiler production system, chicks may not receive feed and water for 24 to 72 h due to variations in hatching time and hatchery management. Post-hatch feed delay affects body weight, feed efficiency, mortality, and gut development. The goal of this study was to investigate changes in the microbiome in broiler chickens early PH and the effect of delayed access to feed on the microbiota. Results: Chicks either received feed and water immediately after hatch or access to feed was delayed for 48 h to mimic commercial hatchery settings (treatment, TRT). Both groups were sampled (n = 6) at -48, 0, 4 h, and 1 (24 h), 2 (48 h), 3 (72 h), 4 (96 h), 6 (144 h), 8 (192 h), 10 (240 h), 12 (288 h) and 14 (336 h) days PH. Ileal (IL) and cecal (CE) epithelial scrapings (mucosal bacteria, M) and digesta (luminal bacteria, L) were collected for microbiota analysis. Microbiota was determined by sequencing the V3-V4 region of bacterial 16S rRNA and analyzed using QIIME2. The microbiota of early ileal and cecal samples were characterized by high abundance of unclassified bacteria. Among four bacterial populations (IL-L, IL-M, CE-L, CE-M), IL-M was the least affected by delayed access to feed early PH. Both alpha and beta diversities were affected by delayed access to feed PH in IL-L, CE-M and CE-L. However, the development effect was more pronounced. In all four bacterial populations, significant changes due to developmental effect (time relative to hatch) was observed in taxonomic composition, with transient changes of bacterial taxa during the first two weeks PH. Delayed access to feed has limited influence on bacterial composition with only a few genera and species affected in all four bacterial populations. Predicted function based on 16S rRNA was also affected by delayed access to feed PH with most changes in metabolic pathway richness observed in IL-L, CE-L and CE-M. Conclusions: These results show transient changes in chicken microbiota biodiversity during the first two weeks PH and indicate that delayed access to feed affects microbiota development. Proper microbiota development could be an important factor in disease prevention and antibiotic use in broiler chickens. Moreover, significant differences in response to delayed access to feed PH between luminal and mucosal bacterial populations strongly suggests the need for separate analysis of these two populations.

16S↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

Abstract Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Malpeli, Katherine C. (ORCID:000000030780918X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Nonlinearities in Physics and Demography

Nonlinearities appear in almost all systems. Earlier, we focused on those in plasmas, ionospheric scattering, and the world population. As turned out, the estimate of the population growth made in 1974 is in astonishing agreement with the United Nations estimates and agrees with our present data to within 2%. Here, a particularly important role, both for the population evolution and wave interaction in plasmas, is played by non-Markovian effects (effects depending on the past time). For the population growth, this occurs due to a delay of one generation in the set of population limiting actions, while, for plasmas, it is caused by nonlinear frequency shifts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers"

This archive contains data used to draw conclusions in “Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Cone collection and field experiments were conducted on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, with the latter completed within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE). Laboratory germination experiments were conducted at the University of California Merced. Geospatial files are also provided for additional geographical context.There are four data file formats in this package: comma-separated values (.csv), Microsoft Excel (.xlsx), keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefile (.shp). The latter two are geospatial file formats. .csv files can be opened using any simple text editor program such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows), and .xlsx files can be opened using Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets. The .kml file contains coordinate data, and is compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps. ESRI shapefiles (.shp) are compatible with any geospatial software able to read the file type, such as QGIS and ESRI’s ArcGIS Suite. This data user’s guide is available in as a .pdf, and can be opened using software such as Adobe Acrobat Reader.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genomic dissection of anthracnose resistance response in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is the fifth most important grain crop behind maize, wheat, rice, and barley. Today, it is of interest as a source of fermentable sugars for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals, and as a source of biomass for co-firing. The productivity and profitability of sorghum are limited by several biotic constraints, most notably anthracnose caused by the fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineolum. The most cost-effective and environmentally benign strategy to control anthracnose is through the incorporation of resistance genes. Over the last three years, our research efforts have been directed to identify new sources of resistance in temperate adapted and tropical germplasm, and to delimited genomic regions associated with the observe anthracnose resistant response. Three biparental mapping populations derived from the resistant lines SC112-14, QL3 and IS18760 were evaluated for anthracnose resistance response in Texas, Georgia, Florida and Puerto Rico. In parallel, three high density recombination maps were constructed and used to identify resistant loci. Anthracnose resistant response in line SC112-14 is controlled by a major locus on chromosome 5. Segregation analysis of 1,500 progenies delimited the resistance locus on chromosome 5 to a 23-kb region harboring three candidate genes, including Sobic.005G17230 identified by GWAS of the sorghum association panel (SAP). The latter gene belongs to a family of genes encoding F-box proteins indicating that this resistance response involved in signaling cascades and transcriptional reprograming, rather than recognition of pathotype-associated molecular patterns. In contrast, anthracnose resistant response in lines QL3 and IS18760 is controlled by multiple small-effect genes. Greenhouse evaluation of a representative subset of the three mapping populations against nine pathotypes found that lines susceptible in the field could be resistant to a single pathotype in the greenhouse. Thus, the activation of a resistance response system by a single pathotype could not provide a broader resistance response against multiple pathotypes. The screening of 1,801 sweet sorghum accessions from the National Plant Germplasm System identified 654 accessions with Brix value larger than 10, which in turn was used to select a subset of 233 accessions for evaluation of anthracnose resistant response. Even though most of the accessions were not completely infected by anthracnose, 28 accessions were completely resistant against pathotypes from Texas, Georgia, Florida and Puerto Rico. Genotyping-by-sequencing analysis of this subset identified 157,843 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Population structure analysis of the subset based on a subset of 2,345 unlinked SNPs found that the genetic diversity could be divided into four populations. The genetic relatedness among accessions within populations suggests most of the resistant germplasm may contain few different resistance sources. These resistance sources present in sweet sorghum germplasm could expedite the development of new resistant sweet sorghum cultivars and hybrids by avoiding time-consuming introgression breeding approaches with non-sweet sorghums serving as donor of the resistance alleles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2022

Rare plants are monitored on the Hanford Site as distribution and abundance data of current and historic rare plant populations are necessary to make well-informed environmental and ecological resource management decisions. The Central Hanford Rare Plant Management Plan (DOE/RL-2021-35) guides rare plant monitoring methodology in the context of resource management at the Hanford Site. In 2022, a rare plant monitoring effort occurred on the portion of the Hanford Site (referred to herein as Central Hanford) managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL; Figure 1). The goal of this effort was to revisit known occurrences of upland rare plant populations on Central Hanford to improve baseline information on locations of rare plant populations on the Hanford Site. Rare upland plants were thoroughly surveyed in 2021 but unusually low precipitation that year limited germination of many upland annual plants. Surveys in 2022 focused on rare upland annual species after the Hanford Site received higher than average spring precipitation that was expected to increase germination. Rainfall from April 2022 to June 2022 was 76% higher than average; however, these months were also colder than average. Winter rainfall from January 2022 to March 2022 was 84% lower than average. The high spring precipitation in 2022 appears to have triggered the germination of some populations of rare upland annuals but the dry winter and cold spring may have inhibited others. Population stability, viability, and threats were evaluated and will be used to inform future management of rare plant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovering useful genetic variation in the seed parent gene pool for sorghum improvement

Multi-parent populations contain valuable genetic material for dissecting complex, quantitative traits and provide a unique opportunity to capture multi-allelic variation compared to the biparental populations. A multi-parent advanced generation inter-cross (MAGIC) B-line (MBL) population composed of 708 F 6 recombinant inbred lines (RILs), was recently developed from four diverse founders. These selected founders strategically represented the four most prevalent botanical races (kafir, guinea, durra, and caudatum) to capture a significant source of genetic variation to study the quantitative traits in grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. MBL was phenotyped at two field locations for seven yield-influencing traits: panicle type (PT), days to anthesis (DTA), plant height (PH), grain yield (GY), 1000-grain weight (TGW), tiller number per meter (TN) and yield per panicle (YPP). High phenotypic variation was observed for all the quantitative traits, with broad-sense heritabilities ranging from 0.34 (TN) to 0.84 (PH). The entire population was genotyped using Diversity Arrays Technology (DArTseq), and 8,800 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were generated. A set of polymorphic, quality-filtered markers (3,751 SNPs) and phenotypic data were used for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We identified 52 marker-trait associations (MTAs) for the seven traits using BLUPs generated from replicated plots in two locations. We also identified desirable allelic combinations based on the plant height loci (Dw1, Dw2, and Dw3), which influences yield related traits. Additionally, two novel MTAs were identified each on Chr1 and Chr7 for yield traits independent of dwarfing genes. We further performed a multi-variate adaptive shrinkage analysis and 15 MTAs with pleiotropic effect were identified. The five best performing MBL progenies were selected carrying desirable allelic combinations. Since the MBL population was designed to capture significant diversity for maintainer line (B-line) accessions, these progenies can serve as valuable resources to develop superior sorghum hybrids after validation of their general combining abilities via crossing with elite pollinators. Further, newly identified desirable allelic combinations can be used to enrich the maintainer germplasm lines through marker-assisted backcross breeding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Deep and Wide Twilight Survey for Asteroids Interior to Earth and Venus

We are conducting a survey using twilight time on the Dark Energy Camera with the Blanco 4 m telescope in Chile to look for objects interior to Earth's and Venus' orbits. To date we have discovered two rare Atira/Apohele asteroids, 2021 LJ4 and 2021 PH27, which have orbits completely interior to Earth's orbit. We also discovered one new Apollo-type Near Earth Object (NEO) that crosses Earth's orbit, 2022 AP7. Two of the discoveries have diameters ≳1 km. 2022 AP7 is likely the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) discovered in about eight years. To date we have covered 624 square degrees of sky near to and interior to the orbit of Venus. The average images go to 21.3 mag in the r band, with the best images near 22nd mag. Our new discovery 2021 PH27 has the smallest semimajor axis known for an asteroid, 0.4617 au, and the largest general relativistic effects (53 arcsec/century) known for any body in the solar system. The survey has detected ~15% of all known Atira NEOs. We put strong constraints on any stable population of Venus co-orbital resonance objects existing, as well as the Atira and Vatira asteroid classes. These interior asteroid populations are important to complete the census of asteroids near Earth, including some of the most likely Earth impactors that cannot easily be discovered in other surveys. Comparing the actual population of asteroids found interior to Earth and Venus with those predicted to exist by extrapolating from the known population exterior to Earth is important to better understand the origin, composition, and structure of the NEO population.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beyond Galaxy Bimodality: The Complex Interplay between Kinematic Morphology and Star Formation in the Local Universe

It is generally assumed that galaxies are a bimodal population in both star formation and structure; star-forming galaxies are disks, while passive galaxies host large bulges or are entirely spheroidal. Here we test this scenario by presenting a full census of the kinematic morphologies of a volume-limited sample of galaxies in the local universe extracted from the MaNGA galaxy survey. We measure the integrated stellar line-of-sight velocity to velocity dispersion ratio (V/σ) for 4574 galaxies in the stellar mass range 9.75 < logM $\star$ [M ⊙ ] < 11.75. We show that at fixed stellar mass, the distribution of V/σ is not bimodal, and that a simple separation between fast and slow rotators is oversimplistic. Fast rotators are a mixture of at least two populations, referred to here as dynamically cold disks and intermediate systems, with disks dominating in both total stellar mass and number. When considering star-forming and passive galaxies separately, the star-forming population is almost entirely made up of disks, while the passive population is mixed, implying an array of quenching mechanisms. Passive disks represent ~30% (both in number and mass) of passive galaxies, nearly a factor of two higher than that of slow rotators, reiterating that these are an important population for understanding galaxy quenching. These results paint a picture of a local universe dominated by disky galaxies, most of which become somewhat less rotation-supported upon or after quenching. While spheroids are present to a degree, they are certainly not the evolutionary end point for the majority of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MEGASIM: Distribution and Detection of Earth Trojan Asteroids

Abstract Using N -body simulation results from the MEGASIM data set, we present spatial distributions of Earth Trojan Asteroids and assess the detectability of the population in current and next-generation ground-based astronomical surveys. Our high-fidelity Earth Trojan Asteroid (ETA) distribution maps show never-before-seen high-resolution spatial features that evolve over timescales up to 1 Gyr. The simulation was synchronized to start times and timelines of two observational astronomy surveys: (1) the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and (2) the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We calculate upper limits for the number of ETAs potentially observable with both the ZTF and LSST surveys. Due to the Yarkovsky Effect, we find no stable ETAs on billion-year timescales likely to be detected by any ETA survey, as no C-type or S-type ETAs (with H < 22 and H < 24, respectively) are likely to be stable on billion-year timescales, and ETAs large enough to remain stable on billion-year timescales are very rare relative to the rest of the ETA population. We find that a twilight ETA survey will not drastically increase the likelihood of individual ETA detection, but it would provide orders of magnitude more observations of select ETA populations. The null detection to date from ZTF restricts the potential ETA population to hundreds of objects larger than 100 m (at H ≈ 22), while a null detection by LSST will further restrict the ETA population to tens of objects larger than 100 m.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Compound Poisson Generator Approach to Point-source Inference in Astrophysics

Abstract The identification and description of point sources is one of the oldest problems in astronomy, yet even today the correct statistical treatment for point sources remains one of the field’s hardest problems. For dim or crowded sources, likelihood-based inference methods are required to estimate the uncertainty on the characteristics of the source population. In this work, a new parametric likelihood is constructed for this problem using compound Poisson generator (CPG) functionals that incorporate instrumental effects from first principles. We demonstrate that the CPG approach exhibits a number of advantages over non-Poissonian template fitting (NPTF)—an existing method—in a series of test scenarios in the context of X-ray astronomy. These demonstrations show that the effect of the point-spread function, effective area, and choice of point-source spatial distribution cannot, generally, be factorized as they are in NPTF, while the new CPG construction is validated in these scenarios. Separately, an examination of the diffuse-flux emission limit is used to show that most simple choices of priors on the standard parameterization of the population model can result in unexpected biases: when a model comprising both a point-source population and diffuse component is applied to this limit, nearly all observed flux will be assigned to either the population or to the diffuse component. A new parameterization is presented for these priors that properly estimates the uncertainties in this limit. In this choice of priors, CPG correctly identifies that the fraction of flux assigned to the population model cannot be constrained by the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stellar Neutrino Emission across the Mass–Metallicity Plane

We explore neutrino emission from nonrotating, single-star models across six initial metallicities and 70 initial masses from the zero-age main sequence to the final fate. Overall, across the mass spectrum, we find metal-poor stellar models tend to have denser, hotter, and more massive cores with lower envelope opacities, larger surface luminosities, and larger effective temperatures than their metal-rich counterparts. Across the mass–metallicity plane we identify the sequence (initial CNO → 14 N → 22 Ne → 25 Mg → 26 Al → 26 Mg → 30 P → 30 Si) as making primary contributions to the neutrino luminosity at different phases of evolution. For the low-mass models we find neutrino emission from the nitrogen flash and thermal pulse phases of evolution depend strongly on the initial metallicity. For the high-mass models, neutrino emission at He-core ignition and He-shell burning depends strongly on the initial metallicity. Antineutrino emission during C, Ne, and O burning shows a strong metallicity dependence with 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg providing much of the neutron excess available for inverse-β decays. We integrate the stellar tracks over an initial mass function and time to investigate the neutrino emission from a simple stellar population. We find average neutrino emission from simple stellar populations to be 0.5–1.2 MeV electron neutrinos. Lower metallicity stellar populations produce slightly larger neutrino luminosities and average β decay energies. This study can provide targets for neutrino detectors from individual stars and stellar populations. We provide convenient fitting formulae and open access to the photon and neutrino tracks for more sophisticated population synthesis models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). To go from the TGW data to these BA-level aggregated data we first averaged the raw gridded data by county in the United States. That intermediate data step is also stored in MSD-LIVE (https://doi.org/10.57931/1960548). We then population-weight the county-level hourly data in order to create population-weighted meteorology time series for each BA. Historical populations are from the United States Census Bureau and the evolving future populations are based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The four climate scenarios crossed with the two SSPs yield eight different future projections for each BA: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotterssp3, rcp85hotterssp5. For the historical period and each of the eight future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the population-weighted average of five meteorological variables: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and wind speed. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level and then BA-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

Balancing Authority↗