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At least 721 records · Page 40

Performance Evaluation of Low-Cost Condensers Immersed in the Water Tank of a Heat Pump Water Heater

This paper reports the effect of low-cost immersed condensers on the performance of a heat pump water heater (HPWH) that does not require a water-circulating pump. The proposed design is based on the immersion of an L-style condenser coil through an opening in the top of the water tank. The novel design aims to eliminate the need for the water-circulating pumps, thereby substantially improving efficiency and reducing costs and maintenance of the HPWH system. Comprehensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and experimental tests were performed, and the results showed that the CFD simulations were close to the experimental data. Further results confirm that the L-style condenser can introduce buoyancy-driven flow and eliminate temperature stratification in the studied HPWH water tank, thereby improving the heat transfer coefficient and coefficient of performance of the HPWH. The testing results further showed that the L-style condenser enabled more than 53% higher coefficient of performance and 400% higher heat transfer coefficient compared with the straight vertical condenser, and achieved much faster water heating. Furthermore, the effects of immersed condensers with different circuits on the HPWH performance were evaluated and compared. All results indicate that the current energy-saving and inexpensive HPWH technology is technically valid, and the benefits of performance improvement and low cost are attractive in future HPWH design.

Gao, Zhiming [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000271397995)↗

Functional fiber-optic sensors embedded in stainless steel components using ultrasonic additive manufacturing for distributed temperature and strain measurements

The nuclear industry is progressing toward microreactors that can be factory assembled and deployed to remote regions for reliable, scalable power generation. However, the reduced power output requires enhanced monitoring capabilities to reduce staffing and eventually move toward autonomous control to improve the economics of microreactors. The ability to embed sensors such as fiber-optics, which can provide spatially distributed temperature and strain measurements, within microreactor components for real-time health monitoring would be particularly advantageous. Recent advances in ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) have demonstrated the successful embedding of fiber-optics in soft materials such as Al and Cu by placing the sensors in machined cavities and ultrasonically welding over the top with thin foils. This article reports the first successful embedment of fiber-optic sensors and thermocouples within a common nuclear reactor material, SS304, via UAM. UAM parameters were first explored with simple plate geometries before moving to more complex geometries, such as pipes and other test articles for heat pipe–based microreactors. Select samples were sectioned for microscopy to evaluate the sensor/foil and foil/foil interfaces from samples fabricated by using 100% SS304 foils vs. foils plated with a Ni coating to improve UAM bonding. Furthermore, embedding metal-coated, low-bend loss fibers resulted in greatly reduced signal attenuation and adequate compressive residual strain in the embedded region to ensure successful strain coupling. Pipe specimen functional testing was performed by monitoring temperature and strain during transient and steady-state thermal testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of Oil Viscosity and Impact of Ionic Liquid Additive on Electrically Induced Pitting in Rolling Contact

Electrically induced bearing damage (EIBD) is a growing concern in electric drivetrains, where electrical discharge currents generate localized pitting that accelerates wear and premature failure. While ionic liquids (ILs) have shown promise as lubricant additives due to their natural physical adsorption, strong capabilities of tribofilm formation, and high molecular tunability, their role in mitigating EIBD is little known. This gap is especially evident because lubricant viscosity and film thickness affect discharge behavior, and additive performance in these regimes has not been well explored. In this study, tribological tests were performed using a ball-on-disk pure rolling-contact system under an applied voltage on polyalphaolefin oils of three viscosities (4, 10, and 150 cSt measured at 100 °C), with and without the addition of a phosphonium-phosphate IL. Surface damage was analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and stylus profilometry. Damage quantification was based on pit morphology analysis of SEM images. The results provide new insights into how oil viscosity governs the discharge behavior and how an IL additive could influence the pit formation. While viscosity seems to play a significant role, an IL additive shows potential to reduce EIBD and deserves further study.

electrically induced bearing damage (EIBD)↗

Verification Testing of Body Forces due to a Prescribed Angular Velocity in DYNA3D/Paradyn

This report documents the verification testing and regression testing done on a new feature in DYNA3D/Paradyn, which allows users to prescribe body force loads based upon an angular velocity. This feature is unique in that the direction of the angular velocity vector follows the unit vector formed by two coordinate points associated with two nodes or the average coordinates of two separate small collection of nodes. The angular velocity direction will follow the directional vector defined by these nodes while the angular velocity magnitude is defined by a load curve. A simple single element verification test was performed to determine the correct implementation of this feature, and two separate regression tests were added to the DYNA3D Software Quality Assur ance test suite. The nodal positions, velocities, and accelerations from the solution of the single element verification test compare well to analytically derived values of those nodal quantities. The regression tests serve as good examples of this new feature’s use case and were consequently added to the SQA test suite to ensure that further modifications of the DYNA3D source code do not unintentionally change the generated baseline answers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Material Balance Approaches for Hanford Direct-Feed Low Activity Waste Processing - 20022

The Hanford Site has accumulated millions of gallons of tank waste from reprocessing spent fuel to recover plutonium, uranium, cesium, and strontium. The supernatant from the accumulated tank waste will be treated using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste approach. The supernatant will be treated to remove solids and cesium in the Tank-Side Cesium Removal process in the Hanford tank farm, then vitrified in a semi-batch process in the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Currently, each batch of feed is sampled at three locations prior to being fed to the melter: the feed qualification tank in the Hanford tank farm as well as the concentrate receipt vessel (CRV) and melter feed preparation vessel (MFPV) in the WTP. The feed qualification sample is taken from a large batch of accumulated feed, only two to three samples are expected each year. Approximately 275 samples from the CRVs and 1100 samples from the MFPV are expected each year. An evaluation was performed to determine if a material balance based on the feed qualification sample could replace most of the sampling in the CRVs and MFPVs. The evaluation consisted of three elements: (1) determination of the practicality of using a material balance to estimate the stream composition of the CRV and MFPV contents, (2) evaluation of whether the material balance could be automated using the existing process control system, and (3) determination of the uncertainty in glass composition using the material balance approach. It is assumed that periodic sampling at the CRV and MFPV would be performed periodically to re-baseline the material balance, evaluations are in progress to determine the frequency of this periodic sampling. Process sample locations downstream of the melter were reviewed as well, but the partitioning of semi-volatile species in the melter was determined to preclude extending the material balance approach past the melter. It was determined that replacement of the CRV sample location was feasible and did not increase process uncertainty or significantly impact waste loading. Replacement of the MFPV sample was also determined to be feasible, but that measurement of the glass former chemical addition may be needed prior to addition of these chemicals to the MFPV. This measurement could be performed by an in situ laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system. Limited tests were performed to evaluate LIBS for direct measurements of the low-activity waste melter feed. The use of a material balance would eliminate over 1200 samples each year if only 10% of the CRV and MFPV batches are sampled and could likely allow the WTP laboratory to operate on days only versus 24/7 operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SR19021 Tritium Aging of Regenerated LANA.75 (Final Project Report)

The Savannah River Tritium Enterprise (SRTE) has used the metal hydride LaNi 4.25 Al 0.75 (LANA.75) in the Tritium Facilities for over two decades. LANA.75 beds store significant quantities of tritium but have a limited service life due to the radiolytic decay of tritium to He-3 within the metal matrix. It has been shown that heating tritium-aged LANA.75 under vacuum can reverse tritium aging effects, eliminating the heel of trapped hydrogen, and restoring the reversible capacity. Additional investigation is needed to ensure there are no unexpected changes to the hydride before this restoration technique is employed in full scale beds in the Tritium Facilities. This project was to be comprised of three distinct scopes: obtain tritium aging data on the sample regenerated in 2018, regenerate a tritium-aged sample at 600 °C, and perform thermal stability testing on a non-tritiated sample. Isotherms were collected on the previously regenerated sample after approximately two years of tritium aging. Isotherms were collected at 80, 100, and 120 °C. As expected, there was a decrease in the plateau pressure, an increase in plateau slope, and a portion of the “heel” of tritium trapped in the metal had been reestablished. Unexpectedly, it appeared that the plateau had shortened at the higher tritium to metal ratios as well. This is typically seen in older samples. The second scope, to regenerate a second tritium-aged LANA.75 sample, was not completed. A Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan was written and approved, a high temperature test cell was fabricated, several pre-job briefs were held, and the hydride sample was passivated with air. Despite these successes, the hydride sample was not recovered from the legacy test cell. The third scope was to perform thermal stability testing on a “cold” LANA.75 sample. A non-tritiated sample of LANA.75 was held at 750 °C under vacuum for 200 hours to simulate exposure to multiple regeneration evolutions. Hydride isotherm performance, chemical composition, crystallinity, particle size, and morphology are compared between the pre- and post-regeneration samples. No significant changes were observed in composition, crystallinity, or particle size. Comparison of before and after isotherms showed that performance improved rather than deteriorated during the evolution. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) analysis showed small growths on the particle surface after exposure to regeneration conditions. Additional testing will be required to determine the cause of these growths.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article - Report of THETA Commissioning for METL Testing

The Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) is a facility that will be used to develop sodium components and instrumentation as well as acquire experimental data for validation of reactor thermal hydraulic and safety analysis codes. The facility will simulate nominal conditions as well as protected/unprotected loss of flow accidents in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). High fidelity distributed temperature profiles of the developed flow field will be acquired with Rayleigh backscatter based optical fiber temperature sensors. The facility is being designed in partnership with systems code experts to tailor the experiment to ensure the most relevant and highest quality data for code validation. THETA is comprised of a traditional primary and secondary system. The primary system is submerged in the pool of sodium and consists of a pump, electrically heated core, intermediate heat exchanger, and connected piping and thermal barriers (redan). The secondary system, located outside of the sodium pool, consists of a pump, sodium to air heat exchanger, and connected piping and valves. Figure 1 illustrates the main components of the primary system. THETA has been installed in the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) with the primary system in the 28 inch Test Vessel #4, Figure 2 and Figure 3. Since the FY20 THETA status report, [1], further water shakedown testing was performed, some final welding modifications were performed, all system components were sanitized, dry assembled, and commissioned before installing into METL test vessel #4. The THETA submersible electromagnetic flowmeter was welded closed to hermetically seal internal components from sodium followed by a helium leak check for the final time

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Sandia NRT Blade-0 Laboratory Modal Survey

Modal testing was performed on the Sandia NRT Blade-0 in building A-60 at NREL/NWTC. Modal testing was intended to identify the fundamental frequencies of the blade. The blade was cantilevered to the A-60 test stand. Fundamental frequencies were identified using impact modal testing. Additional tests included free-decay testing to quantify damping at small displacements. Small-displacement modal testing aims to minimize the influence of aerodynamic damping; roaming accelerometer impact testing with the development of a dynamic frame model enabled visualization of mode shapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Graphite Oxidation Rate Study on ET-10 and ETU-10 Grades - Task 4: QA Support and Testing for Structural Graphite Oxidation

INL performed targeted oxidation tests to measure oxidation rates for samples of ET-10 and ETU-10 graphite under CRADA No. 21CRA22 Mod. 3, Annex A, “Tritium Testing to Support Kairos Power Advanced Reactor Demonstration” (04/02/2024). All testing was conducted within INL’s Carbon Characterization Laboratory (CCL) using test standard ASTM D7542-21 "Standard Test Method for Air Oxidation of Carbon and Graphite in the Kinetic Regime" [ASTM International, 2021]. Kairos Power provided all test specimens through its graphite vendor Ibiden, Inc. to INL and ASTM specimen specified dimensions. Information within this report only provides the Arrhenius oxidation rate plots as a function of temperature for each graphite grade tested. The raw mass loss per time data will be provided on the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) portal located on the INL information system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nanostructured Black Nickel Coating as Replacement for Black Cr(VI) Finish

This work compares different electrodeposition procedures to produce nickel black coatings as greener and less toxic alternatives to Cr(VI)-based coatings used in different applications. Nickel and nickel-plated brass served as substrates in studies with a Hull cell and polarization curves. After a set of comparative experiments, the best electrodeposition procedure was further studied and optimized. Optimal conditions were found with a bath consisting of 75 g/L NiCl2·6H2O + 30 g/L NaCl and a current density of 0.143 A dm−2 applied for 5 min at room temperature. Furthermore, a pre-treatment with 18.5 vol.% of hydrochloric acid in water was found to be necessary to warrant good coating adhesion to the substrate. The black color is attributed to the development of a nanostructured surface that absorbs the incident light. Corrosion testing was performed in 0.5 M NaCl aqueous solution using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and polarization tests.

Mennucci, Marina M. (ORCID:0000000171886804)↗

Recovery of Cs-137 from Electric Arc Furnace Dust - 20562

The present work proposes the Cs-137 recovery from Electric Arc Furnace Dusts (EAFD) by leaching, in order to reduce the volume of radioactive waste to be managed. Leaching tests were performed on different samples of EAFD contaminated with Cs-137. Two leaching methodologies were tested: dynamic and static using as medium distilled water and in some cases NaOH. The results indicate the possibility of recovering Cs-137 from EAFD using the dynamic method; however, the recovery efficiencies of Cs-137 depend on EAFD's chemical composition. The leachates of Cs-137 were quantitatively adsorbed on exchange resins, showing its great potential to isolate or contain the Cs-137 recovery from EAFD. This study shows the feasible to apply the dynamic leaching methodology to recover Cs-137 from EAFD and the use of ion exchange resins for the isolation of removed Cs-137. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Maximizing Efficiency and Quality: Leveraging Automated Testing for Laboratory Commissioning

The traditional commissioning process uses sampling to select equipment for functional acceptance testing when large quantities of equipment are present. Although this approach is generally effective in identifying wide-spread issues, it has several shortcomings: it fails to evaluate equipment not included in the sample, provides only a one-time validation of equipment operation, and the standard documentation is a simple checklist of pass/fail questions. During the construction and commissioning process of the new Research and Innovation Laboratory (RAIL) in Golden, CO, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team engaged Group14 Engineering to implement a Connected Commissioning process using fault detection and diagnostic software for automated functional acceptance testing. This presentation highlights the advantages offered by automated functional testing in this critical laboratory setting: (1) sampling 100% of BAS-connected equipment during functional testing, (2) testing results backed by data beyond the traditional pass/fail checklist, and (3) an automated test process that can be regularly executed by the building management team for ongoing commissioning throughout the life of the building. The presentation will also cover technical challenges associated with Connected Commissioning and the important conversations with key stakeholders that need to occur well before functional acceptance testing in order to successfully implement the automated testing processes.

automated testing↗

Powder Metallurgy – Hot Isostatic Pressing of 316H Stainless Steel for Nuclear Components

Overview of the PM-HIP work performed on stainless steel 316H as part of the microreactor program. High temperature mechanical testing was performed, with concerns identified with the creep-fatigue performance. Variations in feedstock and processing parameters did not conclusively identify the primary factor in the reduced creep-fatigue performance.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scale-Up and Modeling Efforts Using an Omniphobic Surface Treatment for Mitigating Solids Deposition

Abstract Gas hydrates, waxes and asphaltenes represent some of the most significant flow assurance challenges, especially in subsea lines, where treatment options can be limited. Currently, complete avoidance is the primary strategy for hydrate management, while chemical or mechanical flushing/pigging may be utilized for other solids. Each system must also be treated with individualized solutions, as there have been no proved one-size-fits-all technologies demonstrated to date. As an alternative to constant chemical injection or thermodynamic controls such as insulation or heating, a robust omniphobic surface treatment material has been developed which has been shown in previous studies to significantly reduce the adhesion of flow assurance solids, resulting in lower risk for deposition and plugging of gas hydrates, waxes, and asphaltenes. As part of a Department of Energy study, laboratory scale tests were performed on a variety of apparatuses ranging from micromechanical force (micron scale) to laboratory flow loop testing (meter scale). While the results from these tests have been promising, there can be some disconnects between lab-scale observations and field-scale testing. Several factors can result in discrepancies between small-scale bench-top studies and deployment-scale efforts. These include flow conditions (Reynolds number, flow regime), chemistry (synthetic vs. crude oils, gas composition, and additives), physical differences (pipeline material, size, and geometry), etc. This work will describe the actions taken to better understand the deployment and performance of a material such as this omniphobic surface treatment in field scenarios, and to build confidence for deployment in a production scenario. These efforts include modeling field production scenarios using models developed from lab observations, application of the material to field-scale equipment to better understand application challenges, and expanded survivability and longevity testing. Understanding the bridge between laboratory testing and full-scale deployment allows for better technique and risk mitigation for field scale testing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

High Temperature Mechanical Behavior of Refractory Alloys with Digital Image Correlation

Gas turbine efficiency is typically limited by the maximum allowable temperature for components at the inlet side and in the hot gas flow. Refractory alloys and SiC/SiC ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) are promising candidates for advancing operating temperatures beyond those of Ni-based alloys (>1200 °C). Refractory alloys are more suitable than SiC/SiC CMCs for dynamic components, due to the latter's low toughness and ductility. However, it is well known that refractory alloys suffer from poor oxidation behavior under service lifetimes and conditions, leading to embrittlement concerns. The ARPA-E ULTIMATE program has set out to combine new alloys with advanced coatings to mitigate oxidation/embrittlement effects, while increasing the mechanical performance benefits of refractory materials. Low oxygen (inert gas) or vacuum systems are needed to assess high temperature mechanical performance of developed alloys. To investigate the environmental sensitivity of candidate alloys and develop high temperature testing capabilities, four argon tensile frames were upgraded as well as a single vacuum system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Digital image correlation was incorporated into the vacuum frame allowing for surface strain determination and refined insight into thermomechanical response. Creep testing was performed at 1300 °C on two alloys, C-103 and MHC in vacuum and high purity argon environments. The Mo-based alloy showed less sensitivity to oxygen, indicating that testing in well-controlled argon environments may be suitable. The C-103 alloy demonstrated a stronger sensitivity to oxygen in the well-controlled argon environment, illustrating the need for the developed vacuum testing capabilities. “Small” 25 mm and “large” 76 mm MHC specimens showed comparable results in terms of strain rate during creep testing and ultimate tensile strength during tensile testing, suggesting the viability of smaller geometries that use less material of advanced developmental alloys.

Bell, Sam↗

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗