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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Colorado State University Extension Industrial Assessment Center

Since its inception in 1984, the Colorado State University Industrial Assessment Center has performed industrial assessments at more than 720 manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. From 2017 to 2019 there was a funding gap and the IAC shutdown. In 2020 through DOE extension funding the University relaunched the IAC as an extension center in order to provide assessments to underserved areas. Under this award, the CSU Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) was rebuilt with the help of student employees and the director. The CSU team experienced difficulty as the program was in the process of being restarted right as the 2020 pandemic hit. Nonetheless, the CSU IAC was instrumental in providing energy assessments to manufacturers in Colorado and Wyoming during the period of performance of 09/2019 – 12/2022. The Department of Energy's Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) provide a valuable service to small and medium-sized manufacturers seeking to optimize their operations. These university-based centers offer no-cost, on-site assessments conducted by engineering faculty and students, analyzing energy consumption, production processes, and waste streams. They utilize advanced data acquisition systems to record operational data, and then use the data to create assessment recommendations. These recommendations form the foundation of the comprehensive energy report. The comprehensive report delivers actionable recommendations for enhancing energy efficiency, reducing waste, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving productivity, often identifying significant cost savings. Furthermore, IACs facilitate access to implementation grants, enabling the businesses to readily adopt these improvements. This program not only strengthens individual businesses but also contributes to national goals of training the next generation of energy experts, as well as increasing industrial competitiveness and reduced environmental impact.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (Final Technical Report)

The US Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project to design, develop, deploy and analyze the economic viability of an innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (AHMF). As part of the design activity the project team defined specifications based upon vehicle requirements and compliance with specific fueling performance criteria. The AHMF was originally designed to fuel 10-20 fuel cell vehicles (FCV) per day, consistent with the requirements of the H70 fueling category. The AHMF is able to operate without remote power connections, is modular for easy transport and deployment, and can provide expanded daily capacity and multi-day operations using delivered gaseous hydrogen. Toward the end of the project, due to request from the hydrogen industry and some necessary modifications of the AHMF, the system is now modified to fuel heavy duty vehicles. The project was conducted over two primary phases, each including several key tasks, subtasks, and project milestones. Phase 1 involved the design, development, and construction of the AHMF, moving from a conceptual design through to completion of assembly and testing. In addition to reviewing several different approaches, the team chose to take a conventional station design and modify it for mobile fueling. There were several innovative components included in the design. The high pressure storage was the first to achieve a US Department of Energy (DOE) Special Permit (SP 20391) to transport high pressure hydrogen (95 MPa) in a composite cylinder. The second novel system was a liquid nitrogen (LIN) cooling system with a compact heat exchanger. Without this change, the cooling system would not be able to fit into the AHMF. Phase 2 demonstrated the AHMF by fueling fuel cell buses at a fleet in Pomona, CA. The site was chosen because a temporary fueling solution was required while a fixed station was being installed. The existing permits for the fixed station and non-public access also was a determining factor. Over two months, the buses were fueled 320 times with over 5000 kg of hydrogen from tube trailers. Existing shore power was used, and the average electrical efficiency was 0.13 kWh/kg. The average liquid nitrogen (LIN) consumption was 90.68 scf/kg. The fueling and consumption data was provided to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for analysis. An economic analysis was performed and will be provided in a separate report. The project was successful, but not without challenges and lessons learned. The DOT special permit led the way for the use of high pressure, composite cylinders and is being by multiple other systems and applications. The pandemic along with time for the DOT special permit approval delayed the project for years. The team also believes that hydrogen mobile fueling has a use for the industry, especially during this upcoming phase of expansion. However, it does have its limitations due to high cost to build and operate, and the same permitting challenges as a fixed station. A fully capable system at the speeds and pressures of the AHMF may not be necessary for most applications and would help reduce the cost and increase storage capacity. The on-board generator can be easily replaced with shore power or the wide range of power generation solutions in the marketplace. One of the major results of the project was the development of new code language in National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) 2 and the International Fire Code (IFC) for on-demand mobile fueling. This will provide guidance for Authorities Having Jurisdiction (AHJ) and user on how to permit temporary fueling sites across the nation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Extension Industrial Assessment Center in Eastern Great Lakes Region

The extension IAC at CWRU is funded for 3 years to conduct 10 assessments of small and medium-sized manufacturing facilities each year in Eastern Great Lakes region. Total 30 assessments was proposed in the SOPO but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the IAC program was suspended for 1.5 years. A total of 20 assessments was contracted to the extension IAC at CWRU which have been successfully accomplished. In the proposal, we proposed to train 18 students in the extension IAC program, and actually we selected and trained 19 students even though the IAC project was suspended during half of its project period.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Damage Dynamics and Problems of Scale for Induced and Triggered Seismicity in Reservoirs

In this report, we present a high-level summary of the research we performed on this grant during the years 2017-2024. It is important to note that several of these years were the years of the COVID pandemic, and our research activities were severely impacted by these events, as were many other groups and investigators. However, we can report that we largely achieved the results we proposed. We also list below the papers published under funding from this grant over all those years.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence of Completion of Milestone 3: Experimental Testbed

Construction and deployment of the experimental testbed encountered scheduling delays, and completion was subsequently further delayed by curtailment of LANL operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March and October, LANL was in a state of “Limited Operations” such that only certain “mission-critical” work was performed with approximately 25% on-site staffing. In spite of this, much of the lab space preparation was executed and the five initial model house” units were constructed and installed during this period. Still, the pace of construction was impacted by difficulty in coordinating personnel and minimizing contact between workers. Currently, LANL is in the mode of “Normal Operations with Maximum Telework,” which continues to limit the availability of on-site personnel. Nevertheless, Milestone 3 is now complete. This document describes the experiment as it is deployed and provides status for each task for this milestone.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Accuracy Angle Generator for Angular Calibrations to Support Optical Metrology Laboratories and Light Source Facilities

The overarching vision for this project was to build the most accurate full-rotation angular positioning system in the Americas, and that goal remains. In labs performing similar work, the environment is typically closer to a clean room than an office space, like we had before the upgrades. We are now positioned to achieve our intended result with our upgraded infrastructure, system hardware, calibration techniques, and software. As detailed below, the combination of the pandemic schedule and technical challenges have set us back, but we will continue on the path toward our vision beyond the end of this Phase 2. It’s too important for us, for industry, and for the nation not to do so.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 Experience

The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrons in Structural Biology: Challenges and Opportunities (Workshop Report)

Gaining a thorough understanding of biological systems requires building our knowledge about biological processes from the level of atoms and electrons, and up to whole organisms. Such comprehensive knowledge will allow for a predictive understanding of complex biological systems behavior. It will guide us in the design and development of novel therapeutics and vaccines to tackle existing health threats and to prepare for future pandemics, and it will provide information necessary to create new biomaterials and bio-inspired technologies through manipulation of biological macromolecules, their assemblies, single cells and even microorganisms. Reaching these goals will require a synergistic combination of multiple experimental techniques with molecular calculations and predictive simulations, and the design and development of new techniques and capabilities that bridge current knowledge and technology gaps. Neutron scattering provides unique information about the biomacromolecular structure and function and can play a major role in achieving these goals. A workshop was held to engage the scientific community in identifying pressing challenges in biochemistry, structural biology, enzymology and structure-guided drug design not solved with the current neutron scattering technologies or utilizing other structural biology techniques such as X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-EM. The workshop brought together structural biology, biochemistry and computational experts, as well as early career researchers and students, creating a forum for discussing scientific advancement and collaboration. The workshop included a one-day satellite training workshop where graduate students and postdoctoral researchers were educated in the application of neutron crystallography and small-angle scattering in structural biology. Furthermore, the Instrument Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) for the development of a macromolecular neutron diffractometer at ORNL’s Second Target Station was introduced at the workshop. The major outcome was that neutrons can provide atomic-level understanding of biomacromolecular structure, function and dynamics which is of paramount importance for addressing the identified challenges. Neutron crystallography, in particular, can resolve long-standing biochemical issues regarding enzyme function by delineating the underlying chemistry and can have a major impact on the design of small-molecule therapeutics, especially in combination with molecular computation (quantum chemistry and molecular dynamics simulations) and the emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted drug design technologies. The unique properties of neutrons, including their high sensitivity to hydrogen and their non-destructive nature, make them ideal probes of biological matter. There is a palpable need in the scientific community to expand and enhance the impact of neutron sciences on biology. Neutron crystallography is the only structural biology method capable of determining positions of all hydrogen atoms in proteins, nucleic acids and their complexes at near-physiological temperatures and of unstable species at cryogenic temperatures. Moreover, neutron analysis is non-ionizing, non-destructive and does not perturb the structure or redox chemistry of active site metal centers and clusters in proteins, which can be invaluable for studying radiation-sensitive metalloprotein complexes. Further, neutron energies used in scattering applications are similar to atomic motions, permitting neutron spectroscopies to characterize the dynamics of biomacromolecules on the picosecond to microsecond timescales. The different sensitivities of neutrons to protium (H) and deuterium (D) isotopes of hydrogen allow enhanced visibility of specific parts of biological complexes through isotopic labeling. The impact of neutrons will be most powerful when neutron scattering is combined with complementary experimental techniques that use photons and electrons, and with high-performance computing. The interconnection and mutuality of the experimental and theoretical capabilities will drive discoveries in biological and health sciences to generate more complete picture of complex biological systems. The major limitation in the field of biological neutron crystallography has been signal-to-noise, demanding large samples that are difficult to produce for the majority of biomacromolecules and limiting the applicability of this technique in biological sciences. A neutron crystallography instrument at the Second Target Station will revolutionize biological science with neutrons by engaging a large scientific community of structural biologists, enabling successful neutron diffraction experiments from radically smaller biomacromolecular crystals, resolving unanswered biochemical questions, and meaningfully contributing to rational drug design. The meeting highlighted 10 grand challenges that will be addressed with this advanced capability over the next decade and beyond, and the recommendations required to help address them are given below.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Travel Patterns and Characteristics of the Population from Zero Vehicle Households in New York State

This study explores how zero vehicle and vehicle deficit (i.e., fewer cars than licensed drivers) households manage their daily travel needs and overall mobility decisions. Using the 2009, 2017, and 2022 National Household Travel Survey, the research team investigates key patterns such as trip rates, trip distances, travel modes, and trip purposes, as well as evaluates the impact of information and communication technologies like online shopping and telework. Additionally, the team evaluates how the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced travel behavior, with a focus on New York State, where a significant number of zero vehicle and vehicle deficit households offer unique perspectives on the challenges and opportunities associated with limited vehicle access.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Manufacturing Process of Lightweight Automotive Seats (Integration of Additive Manufacturing and Reinforced Polymer Composite)

Lightweight automotive seats offer multiple benefits to original equipment manufacturers in terms of cost savings from various aspects, including less material usage, more integrated processes, and compliance with Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards. Original equipment manufacturers have been focusing on innovative ways to produce light weight automotive seats. The commercially available automotive seats are currently made of multiple metal components combined through welding and fasteners. The use of additive manufacturing and composite structures is particularly useful for light weighting the automotive components. Additive manufacturing (AM) offers multiple advantages over traditional manufacturing processes such as freedom of design thereby enabling complex structural geometries, mass customization and waste minimization, and control over the fiber alignment through deposition in a predetermined pattern. Combining metal inserts with polymer composites through a novel manufacturing process allows design of lightweight and high-performance materials for automotive components. However, fabricating these metal polymer composite structures through traditional manufacturing processes limits their mechanical properties due to limited design freedom, lack of control over fiber orientation in composite parts, and poor interfacial bonding between the constituent materials. It is essential to develop a novel manufacturing process to enable high throughput production of lightweight automotive seats using metal and polymer composites. As such it is important to design the automotive seat suitable for manufacturing via this process and perform mechanical characterization on various subcomponents of the seat to ensure that the design and performance requirements provided by the auto manufacturer are met. The aim of this project is to develop a novel manufacturing technique to produce lightweight automotive seat by combining AM with conventional manufacturing processes. The car seat back panel will be designed via topology optimization and numerical simulations to minimize the overall weight while ensuring it meets all the performance requirements. The optimization of the seat back structure will be based on computational stress analysis to maximize the stiffness and minimize the weight. Materials currently used by Ford Motor Company will be adopted for a few subcomponents while the in-house composite materials will be used for the rest of the seat back. The composite and metallic materials will be tested to determine their mechanical properties as these are necessary for simulations. A novel manufacturing process will be developed to integrate AM metal inserts with discontinuous reinforced composite through large scale additive manufacturing and compression overmolding processes. The developed manufacturing technique will be used to fabricated various subcomponents suitable for the seat back design and mechanically tested to determine their properties. The manufacturing of the lightweight seat back design through this process involves integrated AM metal inserts with the composite structure for recliner connection. The manufacturing of the entire seat back which is lightweight through the novel manufacturing process will be discussed. The performance of the designed seat back will be investigated through numerical simulations and shown to meet all the requirements provided by the auto manufacturer. The final goal of developing a novel manufacturing process for lightweight automotive seats is met through design optimization of seat back, manufacturing of subcomponents, mechanical characterization, and validation through numerical simulations. The routes to achieve the final goal of the project and the depth in which they were investigated changed throughout the project due to personnel changes and the COVID-19 pandemic. The project resulted in the development of a novel manufacturing process to integrate metal inserts with tailored polymer composite preforms through overmolding. Leveraging this proven manufacturing process, a lightweight seat back was designed through topology optimization and numerical simulations. The designed seat back uses AM metal inserts and compression overmolding of tailored polymer composite preforms obtained via large scale additive manufacturing. The metal polymer composite structures fabricated through this process exhibited enhancement in stiffness and improved ductility upon testing. Overall, the project provided an alternative design and manufacturing technique for automotive seat back that enables weight saving while meeting the safety and performance requirements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Versatile & Intelligent Biodetection via Environmental Sensing (VIBES)

Reactive health monitoring strategies during events like the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for predictive, threat-agnostic diagnostics that can detect both known diseases and novel chemical or biological threats. To address this, we investigated an optical biosensor as a breath volatile organic compound (VOC) analyzer, aiming to emulate biological olfaction. We assembled and validated the device with thin film metal coated substrate-based sensors. We immobilized small biological recognition elements on the substrates and delivered controlled concentrations of target VOCs. The sensor was irradiated with a visible laser and the sensor signal was recorded. We characterized the laser performance and tested 3 recognition elements for 2 VOCs with varying concentrations (1-100 ppm). We also evaluated enhancement of the signal using nanostructures on the metal film in comparison with planar film substrate. We demonstrated detecting ethanol reliably at concentrations as low as ~2 ppm along with preliminary detection of acetone (<100 ppm). We also found several unexpected factors that influence the sensor behavior that should be addressed to further refine the device’s performance. The nanostructures were, as expected, found to amplify the sensor signals. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of the optical bio-sensing modality for breath VOC monitoring at physiologically relevant levels. This positions LLNL to develop a low-cost, scalable, broad-spectrum health monitoring capability aligned with the Early Detection thrust of the Bioresilience Mission Focus Area and attract external funding.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

2021 Annual Merit Review Report, Vehicle Technologies Office

The 2021 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) Annual Merit Review (AMR) was held June 21-25, 2021, virtually, due to extenuating circumstances resulting from the global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The review encompassed work done by VTO: 273 individual activities were reviewed by 281 reviewers. Exactly 1,152 individual review responses were received for the VTO technical reviews. The objective of the meeting was to review the accomplishments and plans for VTO over the previous 12 months, and provide an opportunity for industry, government, and academia to give inputs to DOE with a structured and formal methodology. The meeting also provided attendees with a virtual forum for interaction and technology information transfer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Biopreparedness through a Model System to Understand the Molecular Mechanisms that Lead to Pathogenesis and Disease Transmission: NW-BRaVE

The science of biopreparedness to counter biological threats hinges on understanding the fundamental principles and molecular mechanisms that lead to pathogenesis and disease transmission. Our vision to address this challenge is to create a powerful and user-friendly platform to elucidate the fundamental principles of how molecular interactions drive pathogen-host relationships and host shifts. We will enable groundbreaking discoveries by integrating a wide range of structural, genomics, proteomics, and other advanced omics measurements, along with evolutionary and artificial intelligence predictions. To make sure the system is applicable to real-world problems, we will develop it in the context of a tractable model system, the small, abundant, and accessible photosynthetic cyanobacteria and their constantly co-adapting viral pathogens, cyanophages. This model will maintain the system’s applicability to real-world problems and techniques, but the overall focus will be on elucidating general principles of detecting, assessing, and surveilling molecular interaction, adaptation, and coevolution that are system agnostic and therefore extensible to other viral-host interactions. Our overall objectives are to (1) identify the molecular complexes that comprise the cyanobacteria redox macromolecular subsystem and how they dynamically change with bacteriophage infection in situ, using cryo-electron tomography; (2) profile regulatory changes during infection using proteomics, multiomics, and experimental validation, and integrate the data with in situ structures; (3) use genomics and metagenomics to determine environmental and population factors across time scales that impact the interactions between marine cyanobacteria and their cyanophage parasites, predicting the evolutionary origins of in situ structural and functional interactions, convergence and coevolution; and (4) develop a data integration and transformation platform that facilitates the integration of in situ, proteomic, and evolutionary measurements of molecular interactions to surveil diverse hosts and parasites in various environmental contexts. These objectives address Focus Area 2 Reveal Molecular Interactions Across Biological Scales for Design of Targeted Interventions. Our powerful and user-friendly platform will enhance connections between the often-siloed fields of structure, molecular phenotype, and evolutionary genomics that are key to biopreparedness, but in need of integration (Figure 1). We will build an integrated navigation tool to facilitate the effective use of globally distributed experimental data for integrated analysis and predictive modeling. The project will develop, implement, and test a platform to assess host-pathogen molecular interactions, adaptation to hosts and host shifts, and coevolution between hosts and pathogens, successfully impacting the research community by revolutionizing abilities to study any host-pathogen interaction, encourage diverse community contributions, and gain fundamental insights into how proteins adapt to new contexts. This ability will be critical for designing early interventions to address future threats. We will build surveillance training capability, aiming for a fair and equitable response to future pandemics and biothreats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transport Affordable Clean Hydrogen Energy via Existing Pipeline Infrastructure (CRADA 573)

Our Nation’s vast network of oil pipelines span over 230,000 miles connecting remote energy producing regions to distant markets. The COVID-19 pandemic’s influence on oil prices intensified technical and economic vulnerabilities afflicting the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS, operating below 25% capacity) that may soon resurface as energy demand shifts to low carbon sources. Through the opportunity afforded by the Arctic Advanced Manufacturing Program, I’ve toured the great State of Alaska learning about its culture, unique energy challenges, business ecosystem, research institutions, and regulatory agencies. With encouragement and support from dedicated Alaskans and my professional mentors, I’ve founded Mighty Pipeline for the purpose of developing and commercializing proprietary technology and hardware to convert oil pipelines into clean hydrogen energy transmission systems. Leveraging the advanced technical capabilities of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we’ve demonstrated proof-of-concept (TRL = 3) and are seeking pre-pilot development project opportunities to conduct hardware and system level tests. If we successfully achieve technical and regulatory milestones, Mighty Pipeline’s technology could be available to help facilitate bulk clean hydrogen energy export this decade.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fast-ion confinement in LHD and W7-X (Final Technical Report)

This project was the PhD thesis project for Wataru Hayashi, who graduated in December 2025. In work performed prior to the award while Heidbrink was a Guest Professor at NIFS, we had established conditions for the study of fast-ion confinement in the Large Helical Device (LHD) with fast-ion D-alpha (FIDA) diagnostics. Subsequently, we proposed new sightlines that could augment the existing FIDA measurements with ones that were more sensitive to the highest energy ions. During the project period, the new sightlines were installed by the LHD team and showed the expected enhanced sensitivity to high-energy ions. Many LHD experiments were led by UCI scientists remotely during the pandemic and in-person afterward. One of these, which was led by one of Professor Zhihong Lin’s PhD students (Ethan Green) in collaboration with Hayashi and Heidbrink, resulted in a Nuclear Fusion article on the effect of radial electric fields on fast-ion confinement. The main output of the project, however, is two detailed experimental papers by Hayashi et al. The first of these is a study of neoclassical fast ion confinement in MHD-quiescent plasmas, a key issue in stellarator research. The second is an initial study of the effect of Alfven eigenmodes on fast-ion confinement. In addition to these studies, the project also helped partially support stellarator research with the GTC code by members of Prof. Lin’s group.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

5g↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mining and Validating Social Media Data for COVID-19–Related Human Behaviors Between January and July 2020: Infodemiology Study

Background: Health authorities can minimize the impact of an emergent infectious disease outbreak through effective and timely risk communication, which can build trust and adherence to subsequent behavioral messaging. Monitoring the psychological impacts of an outbreak, as well as public adherence to such messaging, is also important for minimizing long-term effects of an outbreak. Objective: We used social media data from Twitter to identify human behaviors relevant to COVID-19 transmission, as well as the perceived impacts of COVID-19 on individuals, as a first step toward real-time monitoring of public perceptions to inform public health communications. Methods: We developed a coding schema for 6 categories and 11 subcategories, which included both a wide number of behaviors as well codes focused on the impacts of the pandemic (eg, economic and mental health impacts). We used this to develop training data and develop supervised learning classifiers for classes with sufficient labels. Classifiers that performed adequately were applied to our remaining corpus, and temporal and geospatial trends were assessed. We compared the classified patterns to ground truth mobility data and actual COVID-19 confirmed cases to assess the signal achieved here. Results: We applied our labeling schema to approximately 7200 tweets. The worst-performing classifiers had F1 scores of only 0.18 to 0.28 when trying to identify tweets about monitoring symptoms and testing. Classifiers about social distancing, however, were much stronger, with F1 scores of 0.64 to 0.66. We applied the social distancing classifiers to over 228 million tweets. We showed temporal patterns consistent with real-world events, and we showed correlations of up to –0.5 between social distancing signals on Twitter and ground truth mobility throughout the United States. Conclusions: Behaviors discussed on Twitter are exceptionally varied. Twitter can provide useful information for parameterizing models that incorporate human behavior, as well as for informing public health communication strategies by describing awareness of and compliance with suggested behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗