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At least 721 records · Page 40

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project. Final Report

The primary goal of the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office is to enable science community planning and implementation of research activities to advance the program mission to understand and predict climate variability and change on intraseasonal-to-centennial timescales, through observations and modeling, with emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system, and to serve the climate community and society through the coordination and facilitation of research on outstanding climate questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Adaptive Model Refinement to Bridge Scales

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components: the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Here we describe scale-aware ML models for adaptive model refinement that allow us to bridge the spatial and/or temporal scales in simulation models and observation data for capturing and predicting extreme water cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tracking Extremes in Exascale Simulations Utilizing Exascale Platforms

There is a growing recognition in the literature that understanding variability and trends in hydrometeorological extremes relies on understanding variability and trends in the meteorological phenomena that drive these extremes. Such phenomenon-focused understanding relies critically on a robust methodology for identifying the occurrence of these phenomena in observations and model output, but a robust methodology does not currently exist. There are a variety of heuristic methods reported in the literature for identifying, and in some cases temporally tracking, meteorological phenomena. However, there have been several intercomparison projects (and resulting papers) indicating that there is a large uncertainty associated with choices in the identification methods; this is the case for extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and even tropical cyclones (TCs); and we hypothesize that this is a general issue with heuristic identification methods altogether. These studies clearly show that this identification uncertainty leads to a large, and previously under-recognized, quantitative and even qualitative uncertainty in our understanding of these phenomena. In light of these issues, we suggest that the field could be advanced by addressing two overarching questions. First, can we explicitly quantify uncertainty associated with detecting hydrometeorological phenomena? Second, can we decompose detection uncertainty into reducible and irreducible parts?

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Secondary Aerosol Formation in an Arctic Oil Field (Campaign Report)

Atmospheric aerosols contribute significantly to arctic warming, yet significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Recent studies of cloud properties across the North Slope of Alaska show the significant, regional influence of oil field emissions. Development across the Arctic motivates the need to characterize these oilfield emissions to further predict their roles in changing future arctic climate. Our previous August-September 2016 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility field campaign resulted in improved understanding of atmospheric particles emitted within the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) oil fields, as well as the aging of sea spray aerosol. Following Polar Sunrise during arctic spring, chlorine chemistry is active, and we hypothesize that oxidation of oil field hydrocarbons by chlorine atoms (Cl) generates oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) leading to springtime arctic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interagency Agreement No. DE-SC0006988 (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to advance understanding of deep convection updraft microphysics—the source of long-lived stratiform ice—by combining detailed mining of in situ and remote sensing data from the MC3E field campaign with detailed 3D simulations. The project began with parallel work, first strictly on the remote-sensing observation side via dedicated analysis of polarimetric radar signatures, which is a relatively new area, on the one hand. On the other hand, a more traditional but well-formulated preparation and comparison of detailed aerosol-aware simulations with in situ measurements was prepared. In the final phase of this work, these parallel elements were brought together into an integrated analysis of in situ and remote-sensing observations with model results. The project also supported team member involvement in collaborative activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LocOO3D User's Manual

LocOO3D is a software tool that computes geographical locations for seismic events at regional to global scales. This software has a rich set of features, including the ability to use custom 3D velocity models, correlated observations and master event locations. The LocOO3D software is especially useful for research related to seismic monitoring applications, since it allows users to easily explore a variety of location methods and scenarios and is compatible with the CSS3.0 data format used in monitoring applications. The LocOO3D software, User's Manual, and Examples are available on the web at: https://github.com/sandialabs/LocOO3D For additional information on GeoTess, SALSA3D, RSTT, and other related software, please see: https://github.com/sandialabs/GeoTessJava, www.sandia.gov/geotess, www.sandia.gov/salsa3d, and www.sandia.gov/rstt

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How numerical tracers and water isotope ratios help us better understand the hydrological cycle and its representation in Earth system models [Slides]

Outline: Water isotope ratios and fractionation; Isotope tracers in Earth system models; Generalized "process-oriented" water tracers in Earth system models; Opportunities in E3SM. Water isotope ratio data are rapidly becoming more available, providing a critical link between models and observations, as well as providing new opportunities to improve process representations (e.g., T/ET partitioning, cloud processes, partitioning of streamflow, coastal or urban impacts on hydrology, etc.)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity Dataset

The Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity (HESC) Dataset catalogues estimates of nominal energy storage capacity based on varying levels of detail. Dams and reservoirs selected were selected based on those reported in the National Inventory of Dams (NID 2019) and/or the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD v1.3) datasets. These data provide a foundation for understanding available resources at existing hydropower facilities and their potential to provide storage of energy and more flexible generation. Current estimates include Level 1 (based on maximum storage capacities and hydraulic head) and Level 2 (based on historical models or observations of reservoir volume and hydraulic head). For facilities where installed capacity is known, there are also estimates for discharge duration or the length of time when a facility could provide generation at a given capacity. Essential information used to calculate the energy storage capacity and discharge duration (volume, hydraulic head, and details about the sources or records used to obtain those parameters) and summaries of historical generation (for context) are also included.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Quantum computations of the 𝑶(3) model using qumodes

We express the discrete 1+1-dimensional O(3) non-linear sigma model (NLSM) in a form well-suited for the continuous variable approach to quantum computing. Within the Schwinger boson formulation, we need two qumodes (quantum-mechanical oscillators) at each lattice site. We envision that it might be possible to reach the scaling regime of this model and observe asymptotic freedom on near-term photonic quantum devices in the coming decade.

Jha, Raghav↗

PFLOTRAN-SIP: A PFLOTRAN Module for Simulating Spectral-Induced Polarization of Electrical Impedance Data

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) is a non-intrusive geophysical method that collects chargeability information (the ability of a material to retain charge) in the time domain or its phase shift in the frequency domain. Although SIP is a temporal method, it cannot measure the dynamics of flow and solute/species transport in the subsurface over long times (i.e., 10–100 s of years). Data collected with the SIP technique need to be coupled with fluid flow and reactive-transport models in order to capture long-term dynamics. To address this challenge, PFLOTRAN-SIP was built to couple SIP data to fluid flow and solute transport processes. Specifically, this framework couples the subsurface flow and transport simulator PFLOTRAN and geoelectrical simulator E4D without sacrificing computational performance. PFLOTRAN solves the coupled flow and solute-transport process models in order to estimate solute concentrations, which were used in Archie’s model to compute bulk electrical conductivities at near-zero frequency. These bulk electrical conductivities were modified while using the Cole–Cole model to account for frequency dependence. Using the estimated frequency-dependent bulk conductivities, E4D simulated the real and complex electrical potential signals for selected frequencies for SIP. These frequency-dependent bulk conductivities contain information that is relevant to geochemical changes in the system. This study demonstrated that the PFLOTRAN-SIP framework is able to detect the presence of a tracer in the subsurface. SIP offers a significant benefit over ERT in the form of greater information content. It provided multiple datasets at different frequencies that better constrained the tracer distribution in the subsurface. Consequently, this framework allows for practitioners of environmental hydrogeophysics and biogeophysics to monitor the subsurface with improved resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Rapid Compression Machine Study of 2-Phenylethanol Autoignition at Low-To-Intermediate Temperatures

To meet the increasing anti-knocking quality demand of boosted spark-ignition engines, fuel additives are considered an effective approach to tailor fuel properties for satisfying the performance requirements. Thus, screening/developing bio-derived fuel additives that are best-suited for advanced spark-ignition engines has become a significant task. 2-Phenylethanol (2-PE) is an attractive candidate that features high research octane number, high octane sensitivity, low vapor pressure, and high energy density. Recognizing that the low temperature autoignition chemistry of 2-PE is not well understood and the need for fundamental experimental data at engine-relevant conditions, rapid compression machine (RCM) experiments are therefore conducted herein to measure ignition delay times (IDTs) of 2-PE in air over a wide range of conditions to fill this fundamental void. These newly acquired IDT data at low-to-intermediated temperatures, equivalence ratios of 0.35–1.5, and compressed pressures of 10–40 bar are then used to validate the 2-PE model developed by Shankar et al. (2017). It is found that this literature model greatly overpredicts the current RCM data. The comparison of experimental and simulated results also provides insights into 2-PE autoignition behaviors at varying conditions. Further chemical kinetic analyses demonstrate that the absence of the O2-addition pathway of β-R. radical in the 2-PE model of Shankar et al. (2017) could account for the model discrepancies observed at low-to-intermediated temperatures.

Fang, Ruozhou (ORCID:0000000348315100)↗

Magnesium Oxide Reduces Anxiety-like Behavior in Mice by Inhibiting Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria

The gut microbiota–brain axis allows for bidirectional communication between the microbes in our gastrointestinal (GI) tract and the central nervous system. Psychological stress has been known to disrupt the gut microbiome (dysbiosis) leading to anxiety-like behavior. Pathogens administered into the gut have been reported to cause anxiety. Whether commensal bacteria affect the gut–brain axis is not well understood. In this study, we examined the impact of a commensal sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and its metabolite, hydrogen sulfide (H2S), on anxiety-like behavior. We found that mice gavaged with SRB had increased anxiety-like behavior as measured by the open field test. We also tested the effects of magnesium oxide (MgO) on SRB growth both in vitro and in vivo using a water avoidance stress (WAS) model. We found that MgO inhibited SRB growth and H2S production in a dose-dependent fashion. Mice that underwent psychological stress using the WAS model were observed to have an overgrowth (bloom) of SRB (Deferribacterota) and increased anxiety-like behavior. However, WAS-induced overgrowth of SRB and anxiety-like behavioral effects were attenuated in animals fed a MgO-enriched diet. These findings supported a potential MgO-reversible relationship between WAS-induced SRB blooms and anxiety-like behavior.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Solar Neighborhood. XLVII. Comparing M-dwarf Models with Hubble Space Telescope Dynamical Masses and Spectroscopy

We use HST/STIS optical spectroscopy of 10 M dwarfs in five closely separated binary systems to test models of M-dwarf structure and evolution. Individual dynamical masses ranging from 0.083 to 0.405 M {sub ⊙} for all stars are known from previous work. We first derive temperature, radius, luminosity, surface gravity, and metallicity by fitting the BT-Settl atmospheric models. We verify that our methodology agrees with empirical results from long-baseline optical interferometry for stars of similar spectral types. We then test whether or not evolutionary models can predict those quantities given the stars’ known dynamical masses and the conditions of coevality and equal metallicity within each binary system. We apply this test to five different evolutionary model sets: the Dartmouth models, the MESA/MIST models, the models of Baraffe et al., the PARSEC models, and the YaPSI models. We find marginal agreement between evolutionary model predictions and observations, with few cases where the models respect the condition of coevality in a self-consistent manner. We discuss the pros and cons of each family of models and compare their predictive power.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Detection and Characterization of Be+sdO Binaries from HST/STIS FUV Spectroscopy

The B emission-line stars are rapid rotators that were probably spun up by mass and angular momentum accretion through mass transfer in an interacting binary. Mass transfer will strip the donor star of its envelope to create a small and hot subdwarf remnant. Here we report on Hubble Space Telescope/STIS far-ultraviolet spectroscopy of a sample of Be stars that reveals the presence of the hot sdO companion through the calculation of cross-correlation functions of the observed and model spectra. We clearly detect the spectral signature of the sdO star in 10 of the 13 stars in the sample, and the spectral signals indicate that the sdO stars are hot, relatively faint, and slowly rotating as predicted by models. A comparison of their temperatures and radii with evolutionary tracks indicates that the sdO stars occupy the relatively long-lived, He-core burning stage. Only 1 of the 10 detections was a known binary prior to this investigation, which emphasizes the difficulty of finding such Be+sdO binaries through optical spectroscopy. However, these results and others indicate that many Be stars probably host hot subdwarf companions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitivity of 44 Ti and 56 Ni Production in Core-collapse Supernova Shock-driven Nucleosynthesis to Nuclear Reaction Rate Variations

Recent observational advances have enabled high resolution mapping of 44 Ti in core-collapse supernova (CCSN) remnants. Comparisons between observations and models provide stringent constraints on the CCSN mechanism. However, past work has identified several uncertain nuclear reaction rates that influence 44 Ti and 56 Ni production in postprocessing model calculations. We evolved one-dimensional models of 15 M ⊙ , 18 M ⊙ , 22 M ⊙ , and 25 M ⊙ stars from zero age main sequence through CCSN using Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics and investigated the previously identified reaction rate sensitivities of 44 Ti and 56 Ni production. In this work, we tested the robustness of our results by making various assumptions about the CCSN explosion energy and mass cut. We found a number of reactions that have a significant impact on the nucleosynthesis of 44 Ti and 56 Ni, particularly for lower progenitor masses. Notably, the reaction rates ${}^{13}{\rm{N}}{(\alpha ,p)}^{16}{\rm{O}}$, ${}^{17}{\rm{F}}{(\alpha ,p)}^{20}\mathrm{Ne}$, ${}^{52}\mathrm{Fe}{(\alpha ,p)}^{55}\mathrm{Co}$, ${}^{56}\mathrm{Ni}{(\alpha ,p)}^{59}\mathrm{Cu}$, ${}^{57}\mathrm{Ni}{(n,p)}^{57}\mathrm{Co}$, ${}^{56}\mathrm{Co}{(p,n)}^{56}\mathrm{Ni}$, ${}^{39}{\rm{K}}{(p,\gamma )}^{40}\mathrm{Ca}$, ${}^{47}{\rm{V}}{(p,\gamma )}^{48}\mathrm{Cr}$, ${}^{52}\mathrm{Mn}{(p,\gamma )}^{53}\mathrm{Fe}$, ${}^{57}\mathrm{Co}{(p,\gamma )}^{58}\mathrm{Ni}$, and ${}^{39}{\rm{K}}{(p,\alpha )}^{36}\mathrm{Ar}$ are influential for a large number of model conditions. Furthermore, we found the list of influential reactions identified by previous postprocessing studies of CCSN shock-driven nucleosynthesis is likely incomplete, motivating future larger-scale sensitivity studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

All-sky Faint DA White Dwarf Spectrophotometric Standards for Astrophysical Observatories: The Complete Sample

Hot DA white dwarfs (DAWDs) have fully radiative pure hydrogen atmospheres that are the least complicated to model. Pulsationally stable, they are fully characterized by their effective temperature T eff and surface gravity log g, which can be deduced from their optical spectra and used in model atmospheres to predict their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Based on this, three bright DAWDs have defined the spectrophotometric flux scale of the CALSPEC system of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this paper we add 32 new fainter (16.5 < V < 19.5) DAWDs spread over the whole sky and within the dynamic range of large telescopes. Using ground-based spectra and panchromatic photometry with HST/WFC3, a new hierarchical analysis process demonstrates consistency between model and observed fluxes above the terrestrial atmosphere to <0.004 mag rms from 2700 to 7750 Å and to 0.008 mag rms at 1.6 μm for the total set of 35 DAWDs. These DAWDs are thus established as spectrophotometric standards with unprecedented accuracy from the near-ultraviolet to the near infrared, suitable for both ground- and space-based observatories. They are embedded in existing surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS, and Gaia, and will be naturally included in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope survey by the Rubin Observatory. With additional data and analysis to extend the validity of their SEDs further into the infrared, these spectrophotometric standard stars could be used for JWST, as well as for the Roman and Euclid observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗