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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Distinguishing Mesoscale Polar Order (Unidirectional vs Bidirectional) of Cellulose Microfibrils in Plant Cell Walls Using Sum Frequency Generation Spectroscopy

Cellulose in plant cell walls are synthesized as crystalline microfibrils with diameters of 3–4 nm and lengths of around 1–10 μm. These microfibrils are known to be the backbone of cell walls, and their multiscale three-dimensional organization plays a critical role in cell wall functions including plant growth and recalcitrance to degradation. The mesoscale organization of microfibrils over a 1–100 nm range in cell walls is challenging to resolve because most characterization techniques investigating this length scale suffer from low spatial resolution, sample preparation artifacts, or inaccessibility of specific cell types. Here, we report a sum frequency generation (SFG) study determining the mesoscale polarity of cellulose microfibrils in intact plant cell walls. SFG is a nonlinear optical spectroscopy technique sensitive to the molecular-to-mesoscale order of noncentrosymmetric domains in amorphous matrices. However, the quantitative theoretical model to unravel the effect of polarity in packing of noncentrosymmetric domains on SFG spectral features has remained unresolved. In this work, we show how the phase synchronization principle of the SFG process is used to predict the relative intensities of vibrational modes with different polar angles from the noncentrosymmetric domain axis. Applying this model calculation for the first time and employing SFG microscopy, we found that cellulose microfibrils in certain xylem cell walls are deposited unidirectionally (or biased in one direction) instead of the bidirectional polarity which was believed to be dominant in plant cell walls from volume-averaged characterizations of macroscopic samples. Here, with this advancement in SFG analysis, one can now determine the relative polarity of noncentrosymmetric domains such as crystalline biopolymers interspersed in amorphous polymer matrices, which will open opportunities to study new questions that have not been conceived in the past.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-species temperature and number density analysis of a laser-produced plasma using dual-comb spectroscopy

Dual-comb spectroscopy (DCS) represents a novel method of using absorption spectroscopy as a diagnostic tool for multispecies analysis of excitation temperatures and column densities in laser-produced plasmas (LPPs). DCS was performed on a LPP generated by ablating a multielement alloy containing Nd, Gd, and Fe. Transitions from all three elements were observed in absorption spectra measured from 530.08 to 535.19 nm at seven time-delays from 31 to 250 μs after ablation. The spectra were fit using a nonlinear regression algorithm to determine peak areas, and excitation temperatures and column densities were determined for the three atomic species separately using Boltzmann plots. The measured excitation temperatures of Nd I and Gd I showed good agreement at all time-delays, whereas the Fe I temperature was found to be higher, and the ratios between the column densities varied with delay. The observations are understood via effects of LPP spatial averaging, elemental fractionation, and molecular formation and are compared and contextualized with previous work studying LPPs using other spectroscopic techniques. A brief discussion of the precision and accuracy of the determined excitation temperatures and column densities is also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Composite entanglement topology and extensional rheology of symmetric ring-linear polymer blends

Extensive molecular simulations are applied to characterize the equilibrium dynamics, entanglement topology, and nonlinear extensional rheology of symmetric ring-linear polymer blends with systematically varied ring fraction ϕR. Chains with degree of entanglement Z≈14 are mixed to produce 10 well-entangled systems with ϕR varying from neat linear to neat ring melts. Z is large enough that except for very large ϕR, the rings are threaded by multiple linear chains in equilibrium. Primitive path analysis is used to visualize and quantify the structure of the composite ring-linear entanglement network. We measure the quantity of ring-linear threading and linear-linear entanglement as a function of ϕR and identify with simple arguments a ring fraction ϕR≈0.4 where the topological constraints of the composite entanglement network are maximized. These topological analyses are used to rationalize the ϕR-dependence of ring and linear chain dynamics, conformations, and rheology. Simulations of startup uniaxial elongation flows demonstrate the extensional stress overshoot observed in recent filament stretching experiments and characterize how it depends on the blend composition and entanglement topology. The overshoot is driven by an overstretching and recoil of ring polymers due to the convective unthreading of rings from linear chains.

O’Connor, Thomas C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

MOSAIC: An Effective FFT-based Numerical Method to Assess Aging Properties of Concrete

As the nuclear fleet in the United States ages and subsequent license renewal applications grow, the prediction of concrete durability at extended operation becomes more important. To address this issue, a Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) method is utilized to simulate aging-related degradation of concrete within the Microstructure Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC) software. MOSAIC utilizes compositional phase maps to simulate damage from radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE), applied force, creep, and thermal expansion. This compositional detail allows each mineral in the microstructure to be assigned specific material properties, allowing the simulation to be as accurate and representative as possible. The principal goal of MOSAIC is to simulate the effects of nonlinear aging mechanisms occurring in nuclear concrete on the macroscopic mechanical properties, using only the aggregate microstructure compositional information as a starting point. Here, several realistic example simulations are shown to demonstrate the utility and uniqueness of the MOSAIC software.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting two thiophosphate compounds constituting d 0 transition metal HfP 2 S 6 and d 10 transition metal α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 as multifunctional materials for combining second harmonic generation response and photocurrent response

Two acentric thiophosphate compounds, HfP 2 S 6 and α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 , are revisited and studied as infrared nonlinear optical materials. HfP 2 S 6 and α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 were structurally characterized without any property measurements. Here, in this work, HfP 2 S 6 and α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 were synthesized via high temperature salt flux reactions. Low-temperature polymorph acentric α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 was purified and grown as mm-sized crystals with the aid of AgBr flux. The AgBr flux was revealed to play an important role in stabilizing the acentric α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 . The acentric α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 transforms to centrosymmetric β-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 at 850(5) K, which is revealed by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis and powder X-ray diffraction experiments. HfP 2 S 6 and α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 are discovered by UV-vis spectrum measurements as indirect bandgap semiconductors with bandgaps of 2.2(1) eV and 2.5(1) eV, respectively, which is supported by DFT calculations and TB-LMTO-ASA calculations. The bonding pictures of α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 were studied by crystal orbital Hamilton population calculations (COHP) coupled with electron localization function (ELF) analysis. DFT calculations predict that HfP 2 S 6 and α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 would exhibit different optical performances regardless of being constructed from identical [P 2 S 6 ] motifs. HfP 2 S 6 exhibits a low second harmonic generation (SHG) response, ~0.21 × AGS (for the sample of particle size of 25 μm). α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 possesses moderate SHG response, ~0.61 × AGS (for the sample of particle size of 225 μm) coupled with a high laser damage threshold (LDT) of ~3.2 × AGS. Characteristics of high ambient stability, moderate bandgap and SHG response, type-I phase-matching capability, and high LDT together with the easy growth of large crystals make α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 attractive for future infrared nonlinear optical applications. Photocurrent measurements found that α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 and β-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 have high photocurrent response, 165 nA cm -2 and 135 nA cm -2 , respectively. α-Ag 4 P 2 S 6 is a new multifunctional material of the ternary Ag–P–S system, which combines nonlinear optical (NLO) properties and photocurrent response.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report: FY22

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package, is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are relevant to the current and future stockpile. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS). Additionally, this work is being used to test a newly available framework in W-13, Weapons Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extrapolation of thermal conductivity in non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations to bulk scale

Predictions of the bulk scale thermal conductivity of solids using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have relied on the linear extrapolation of the thermal resistivity versus the reciprocal of the system length in the simulations. Several studies have reported deviation of the extrapolation from linearity near the micro-scale, raising a concern of its applicability to large systems. To investigate this issue, present work conducted extensive MD simulations of silicon with two different potentials (EDIP and Tersoff-II) for unprecedented length scales up to 10.3 μm and simulation times up to 530 ns. For large systems ≥0.35 μm in size the non-linearity of the extrapolation of the reciprocal of the thermal conductivity is mostly due to ignoring the dependence of the thermal conductivity on temperature. To account for such dependence, the present analysis fixes the temperature range for determining the gradient for calculating the thermal conductivity values. However, short systems ≤0.23 μm in size show significant non-linearity in the calculated thermal conductivity values using a temperature window of 500 ± 10 K from the simulations results with the EDIP potential. Since these system sizes are shorter than the mean phonon free path in EDIP (~0.22 μm), the nonlinearity may be attributed to phonon transport. For the MD simulations with the Tersoff-II potential there is no significant non-linearity in the calculated thermal conductivity values for systems ranging in size from 0.05 to 5.4 μm.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2021

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective field theory of fluctuating wall in open systems: from a kink in Josephson junction to general domain wall

We investigate macroscopic behaviors of fluctuating domain walls in nonequilibrium open systems with the help of the effective field theory based on symmetry. Since the domain wall in open systems breaks the translational symmetry, there appears a gapless excitation identified as the Nambu-Goldstone (NG) mode, which shows the non-propagating diffusive behavior in contrast to those in closed systems. After demonstrating the presence of the diffusive NG mode in the (2+1)-dimensional dissipative Josephson junction, we provide a symmetry-based general analysis for open systems breaking the one-dimensional translational symmetry. A general effective Lagrangian is constructed based on the Schwinger-Keldysh formalism, which supports the presence of the gapless diffusion mode in the fluctuation spectrum in the thin wall regime. Besides, we also identify a term peculiar to the open system, which possibly leads to the instability in the thick-wall regime or the nonlinear Kardar-Parisi-Zhang coupling in the thin-wall regime although it is absent in the Josephson junction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced wind turbine control development using field test analysis for generator overspeed mitigation

Abstract Turbulent and gusty wind conditions can cause generator overspeed peaks to exceed a threshold that then lead to wind turbine shutdowns, which then decrease the energy production of the wind turbines. We derive so‐called “gust measures” that predict when generator overspeed peaks may occur. These gust measures are then used to develop advanced controllers to mitigate generator overspeed peaks so that wind turbines can operate more robustly in difficult wind conditions without exceeding generator overspeed thresholds that would lead to turbine shutdown events. The advanced controllers are demonstrated in nonlinear aeroelastic simulations using the open‐source wind turbine simulation tool OpenFAST. To increase the realism of the simulations, they are run using field‐replicated wind conditions and a wind turbine model based on data from an experimental field campaign on a downscaled demonstrator of a novel extreme‐scale, two‐bladed, downwind rotor design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Side-channel Leakage Assessment Metrics: A Case Study of GIFT Block Ciphers

Determination of an adequate level of security and providing subsequent mechanisms to achieve it, is one of the most pressing problems regarding embedded computing devices. While there are some solutions available for resource-rich computer systems, direct application of these solutions to resource-constrained environments are often unfeasible. The fundamental problem for such resource-constrained systems is the fact that current cryptographic algorithms utilize significant energy consumption and storage overhead. Both the cryptographic algorithm and its physical implementation affect the resilience of a cryptosystem against side-channel attacks. A side-channel attack represents a process that exploits leakages in order to extract sensitive information such as the key. This paper focuses on Correlation Power Analysis (CPA) which is side-channel attack based on the power consumption leakage. In 2016 the U.S. Commerce Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) initiated the call for proposals of new cryptographic algorithms to strengthen the cryptographic defense of networked devices against cyberattacks and to protect the data created by those innumerable device. This work evaluates S-boxes used by NIST candidates PICCOLO, GIFT, and PRESENT, as well as several S-box variants that demonstrated sufficient weaknesses against classical cryptanalysis, for a quantitative comparison in terms of resiliency to CPA attack. Three well-known theoretical metrics are evaluated: transparency order (TO and RTO), nonlinearity, and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio, aiming to characterize the resistance of these S-boxes against adversaries exploiting physical leakages. Experimental results from attacks on an 8- bit XMEGA were obtained via the ChipWhisperer platform and of all the S-boxes evaluated, GIFT64 with a PICCOLO S-box was found to be the most susceptible to CPA. Results showed that variations in TO and RTO were not sufficient to ensure practical CPA resistance and that among S-boxes with equal non-linearity there were no significant differences in the TO and SNR variants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Side-channel Leakage Assessment Metrics: A Case Study of GIFT Block Ciphers

Determination of an adequate level of security and providing subsequent mechanisms to achieve it, is one of the most pressing problems regarding embedded computing devices. While there are some solutions available for resource-rich computer systems, direct application of these solutions to resource-constrained environments are often unfeasible. The fundamental problem for such resource-constrained systems is the fact that current cryptographic algorithms utilize significant energy consumption and storage overhead. Both the cryptographic algorithm and its physical implementation affect the resilience of a cryptosystem against side-channel attacks. A side-channel attack represents a process that exploits leakages in order to extract sensitive information such as the key. This paper focuses on Correlation Power Analysis (CPA) which is side-channel attack based on the power consumption leakage. In 2016 the U.S. Commerce Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) initiated the call for proposals of new cryptographic algorithms to strengthen the cryptographic defense of networked devices against cyberattacks and to protect the data created by those innumerable device. This work evaluates S-boxes used by NIST candidates PICCOLO, GIFT, and PRESENT, as well as several S-box variants that demonstrated sufficient weaknesses against classical cryptanalysis, for a quantitative comparison in terms of resiliency to CPA attack. Three well-known theoretical metrics are evaluated: transparency order (TO and RTO), nonlinearity, and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio, aiming to characterize the resistance of these S-boxes against adversaries exploiting physical leakages. Experimental results from attacks on an 8- bit XMEGA were obtained via the ChipWhisperer platform and of all the S-boxes evaluated, GIFT64 with a PICCOLO S-box was found to be the most susceptible to CPA. Results showed that variations in TO and RTO were not sufficient to ensure practical CPA resistance and that among S-boxes with equal non-linearity there were no significant differences in the TO and SNR variants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A long short-term memory embedding for hybrid uplifted reduced order models

In this paper, we introduce an uplifted reduced order modeling (UROM) approach through the integration of standard projection based methods with long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding. Our approach has three modeling layers or components. In the first layer, we utilize an intrusive projection approach to model dynamics represented by the largest modes. The second layer consists of an LSTM model to account for residuals beyond this truncation. This closure layer refers to the process of including the residual effect of the discarded modes into the dynamics of the largest scales. However, the feasibility of generating a low rank approximation tails off for higher Kolmogorov n -width systems due to the underlying nonlinear processes. The third uplifting layer, called super-resolution, addresses this limited representation issue by expanding the span into a larger number of modes utilizing the versatility of LSTM. Therefore, our model integrates a physics-based projection model with a memory embedded LSTM closure and an LSTM based super-resolution model. In several applications, we exploit the use of Grassmann manifold to construct UROM for unseen conditions. We performed numerical experiments by using the Burgers and Navier-Stokes equations with quadratic nonlinearity. Finally, our results show robustness of the proposed approach in building reduced order models for parameterized systems and confirm the improved trade-off between accuracy and efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-Atom Doping at the Molecule–Metal Interface: How Rh Affects Surface Explosion Kinetics

Controlling chemical reactions at interfaces is central to many fields, including atmospheric, environmental, and biological chemistry as well as catalysis and corrosion. We performed a fundamental study of how catalytically active Rh atoms placed at and above a molecule-metal interface influence the surface reaction kinetics of tartaric acid (TA) decomposition. Specifically, TA decomposition on Cu(100) exhibits autocatalytic decomposition kinetics involving a slow initiation step followed by fast decomposition of the molecular layer. These so-called “surface explosions” are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, making it fundamentally interesting to study how the placement of reactive atoms affects the reaction rate. Temperature-programmed reaction (TPR) experiments reveal that Rh atoms embedded in the Cu(100) surface beneath TA (TA/Rh/Cu) or atop the TA layer (Rh/TA/Cu) reduce the decomposition temperature and modify the reaction rate constants. Isothermal TPR analysis reveals that Rh enhances both the initiation rate constant, k i , and the explosion rate constant, k e , facilitating explosive decomposition at lower temperatures. This result provides evidence that both the initiation and explosion steps occur at the metal-molecule interface and are accelerated by the presence of Rh at this interface. This study illustrates how small amounts of reactive elements may be used to control nonlinear kinetic processes at interfaces.

desorption↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗