Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model based definitions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

ResStock™ v3.2.0 [SWR-19-15 and SWR-20-07]

The ResStock™ analysis tool was built on NREL's OpenStudio® platform, and is a project geared at modeling existing residential building stocks at national, regional, or local scales with a high-degree of granularity (e.g., one physics-based simulation model for every 200 dwelling units), using the EnergyPlus® simulation engine. Information about ComStock™, a sister tool for modeling the commercial building stock, can be found here: https://www.nrel.gov/buildings/comstock.html This repository contains: Housing characteristics of the U.S. residential building stock, in the form of conditional probability distributions stored as tab-separated value (.tsv) files. Comments at the bottom of each file document data sources and assumptions for each. A library of housing characteristic "options" that translate high-level characteristic parameters into arguments for OpenStudio measures, and which are referenced by the housing characteristic .tsv files and building energy upgrades defined in project definition files Project definition files: v2.3.0 and later: buildstockbatch YML files openable in any text editor v2.2.5 and prior: Project folder openable in PAT Unit-level OpenStudio Measures for automatically constructing OpenStudio Models of each representative dwelling unit model: v3.0.0 and later: OpenStudio-HPXML Measures v2.5.0 and prior: OpenStudio Measures Higher-level OpenStudio Measures for controlling simulation inputs and outputs This repository does not contain software for running ResStock simulations, which can be found as follows: Versions 2.3.0 and later only support the use of buildstockbatch for deploying simulations on high-performance or cloud computing. Version 2.3.0 also removed separate projects for single-family detached and multifamily buildings, in lieu of a combined project_national representing the U.S. residential building stock. See the changelog for more details. Versions 2.2.5 and prior support the use of the publicly available OpenStudio-PAT software as an interface for deploying simulations on cloud computing. Read the documentation for v2.2.5.

Horowitz, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2014

Steady and Unsteady Nozzle Simulations Using the Conservation Element and Solution Element Method

This paper presents results from computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of a three-stream plug nozzle. Time-accurate, Euler, quasi-1D and 2D-axisymmetric simulations were performed as part of an effort to provide a CFD-based approach to modeling nozzle dynamics. The CFD code used for the simulations is based on the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element (CESE) method. Steady-state results were validated using the Wind-US code and a code utilizing the MacCormack method while the unsteady results were partially validated via an aeroacoustic benchmark problem. The CESE steady-state flow field solutions showed excellent agreement with solutions derived from the other methods and codes while preliminary unsteady results for the three-stream plug nozzle are also shown. Additionally, a study was performed to explore the sensitivity of gross thrust computations to the control surface definition. The results showed that most of the sensitivity while computing the gross thrust is attributed to the control surface stencil resolution and choice of stencil end points and not to the control surface definition itself.Finally, comparisons between the quasi-1D and 2D-axisymetric solutions were performed in order to gain insight on whether a quasi-1D solution can capture the steady and unsteady nozzle phenomena without the cost of a 2D-axisymmetric simulation. Initial results show that while the quasi-1D solutions are similar to the 2D-axisymmetric solutions, the inability of the quasi-1D simulations to predict two dimensional phenomena limits its accuracy.

Nozzle gross thrust calculations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data associated with “Different methods of estimating riverbed sediment grain size diverge at the basin scale ” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Different methods of estimating riverbed sediment grain size diverge at the basin scale” published in Frontiers in Earth Science (Regier et al., 2025). The distribution of sediment grain size in streams and rivers is often quantified by the median grain size (d50), a key metric for understanding and predicting hydrologic and biogeochemical function of streams and rivers. Manual methods to measure d50 are time-consuming and ignore larger grains, while model-based methods to estimate d50 often over-generalize basin characteristics, and therefore cannot accurately represent site-scale heterogeneity. Here, we apply a machine learning-enabled photogrammetry methodology (You Only Look Once, or YOLO) for estimating d50 for grains > 2 mm based on images collected from streams and rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin (YRB). To understand how such methods may help bridge the gaps in resolution and accuracy between manual and catchment characteristics model-based d50 estimates, we compared YOLO d50 values to manual and model-based estimates across the YRB. We found distinct differences among methods for d50 averages and variability, and relationships between d50 estimates and basin characteristics. Source images can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1892052. This data package was originally published in May 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. In addition to the readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) and subfolders containing data, figures, and scripts. The data folder contains datasets used for the analyses in the manuscript in image, text-delimited or geospatially-referenced formats. The figures folder contains the figures from the manuscript in different formats. The scripts folder contains all of the scripts used to complete the analyses in the manuscript. All files are .csv, .rds, .dbf, .prj, .shp, .shx, .jpg, .png, .R, .Rproj, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Structural modeling for multicell composite rotor blades

Composite material systems are currently good candidates for aerospace structures, primarily for the design flexibility they offer, i.e., it is possible to tailor the material and manufacturing approach to the application. A working definition of elastic or structural tailoring is the use of structural concept, fiber orientation, ply stacking sequence, and a blend of materials to achieve specific performance goals. In the design process, choices of materials and dimensions are made which produce specific response characteristics, and which permit the selected goals to be achieved. Common choices for tailoring goals are preventing instabilities or vibration resonances or enhancing damage tolerance. An essential, enabling factor in the design of tailored composite structures is structural modeling that accurately, but simply, characterizes response. The objective of this paper is to present a new multicell beam model for composite rotor blades and to validate predictions based on the new model by comparison with a finite element simulation in three benchmark static load cases.

Rehfield, Lawrence W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Modeling Solar System Internet Structures and their Data Flows

With an ever-increasing presence in space, there is also an increasing burden on existing communications infrastructure. We are heading towards an inflection point where the traditional approach of scheduled, single-path communications for space will no longer be viable. One answer is Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), which takes the once disparate system of point-to-point links and unifies them in a networked architecture, thereby making communications more scalable. However, much work remains for discovering and harnessing the underlying theory of DTN. For example, in the terrestrial setting the interplay between routing domains is well-understood, however this is not the case in DTNs. In this paper, we build up the fundamental foundations of DTN, with an emphasis on modeling time varying networks and data flows across them, with examples of cross-domain routing in a DTN. A lofty goal of DTN is to enable the so-called Solar System Internet (SSI), which implies a standardized and robust suite of protocols. These protocols include routing across disconnected networks using store, carry, and forward mechanisms, which is necessary due to the disconnections, delays, and mobility intrinsic to space networks. Due to these factors, each of which generalize traditional networking, there is a deep and rich theory of DTNs. Here we build off of past successes to broaden this theory while striving to keep actionable results a goal for future implementations and operations. The approach includes modeling the unicast, broadcast, and multicast communications using the language of hypergraphs, which capture the geometric properties of such networked communications algebraically. Also inherent to these networks is their time-varying nature, particularly given mobility, and hence we also cultivate modeling techniques that respect this time dependence. This leads us to develop models using tools from category theory and algebraic geometry, which provide a language well-suited to describing synchronization and optimization over such networks. We also introduce and study a novel generalization of curvature applicable to time-evolving networks, which provides quantitative controls on diffusion processes on the network. Because an interplanetary network would feature links with propagation delays the preclude discovery (feedback) mechanisms, they will always feature a scheduled component. However, it is beneficial to support discovery where possible. While DTNs do not yet have strong definitions for their analogues of autonomous systems or network areas, we show how to join dynamic and schedule-based routing domains, using the language of sheaves, which marks progress towards such definitions. We conclude with a discussion of the progress made, as well as suggestions for future work.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Neutron Transformation Searches

To probe the origins of the baryon asymmetry, baryon number violation, the last unconfirmed Sakharov condition, must be definitively observed experimentally. Similarly, the nature of dark matter is currently unknown, and calls out for new candidates to be investigated. Each of these issues can be considered through the study of neutron transformations.Some rare baryon number violating processes, such as neutron-antineutron transformations, are expected to probe baryogenesis. Here, I show progress on this discovery target through construction of more accurate Monte Carlo models, the design of future detectors, creation of more complete atmospheric neutrino background simulations, and use of automated analysis techniques within the the NNBAR/HIBEAM experimental program at the European Spallation Source (ESS) and the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). First simulation-based sensitivities for these experiments will be discussed. Modeling of rare neutron-antineutron transformation and subsequent annihilation will be discussed at length for multiple nuclei useful to these and other collaborations. To go along with this work, more comprehensive lepton-scattering nuclear models must be integrated into neutrino event generators for proper atmospheric neutrino background simulations. I discuss the first furnishing of these backgrounds for DUNE, and I highlight a potential path forward for the community in this vein using precisionmore » electron scattering modeling as a facsimile.Aspects of other potentially related neutron – mirror-neutron oscillations pertinent to dark matter and the neutron lifetime anomaly will also be considered for the ESS HIBEAM experiment. Here, I will present the first experimental sensitivity calculations for a broad range of modular experimental setups which will serve as research and design stepping stones toward NNBAR while producing a multitude of physics results over short time scales.« less

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Issue Resolution During the Development of the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20125

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high-activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance (i.e., 100 m from the SDUs). In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. A number of issues were overcome during the development of these simulations. These issues were identified as part of internal technical reviews. Simulations are developed by people and people make mistakes, so the internal technical review process is a vital step in PA development. Specific examples of resolved issues include a unit-conversion error, an inappropriate definition for a model boundary condition, a model time-stepping issue, and an error in the calculation for the buildup of contaminants in soil. Actions taken to address these issues resulted in an improved product with a better supported technical basis and more defensible results. The identification and correction of these issues are discussed. By understanding these issues, model developers and technical reviewers working on PAs in the future may avoid repeating these types of mistakes. Transparency with respect to these mistakes builds trust between waste management sites, regulators, and stakeholders. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Critical Survey of Optimization Models for Tactical and Strategic Aspects of Air Traffic Flow Management

This document presents a critical review of the principal existing optimization models that have been applied to Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM). Emphasis will be placed on two problems, the Generalized Tactical Flow Management Problem (GTFMP) and the Ground Holding Problem (GHP), as well as on some of their variations. To perform this task, we have carried out an extensive literature review that has covered more than 40 references, most of them very recent. Based on the review of this emerging field our objectives were to: (i) identify the best available models; (ii) describe typical contexts for applications of the models; (iii) provide illustrative model formulations; and (iv) identify the methodologies that can be used to solve the models. We shall begin our presentation below by providing a brief context for the models that we are reviewing. In Section 3 we shall offer a taxonomy and identify four classes of models for review. In Sections 4, 5, and 6 we shall then review, respectively, models for the Single-Airport Ground Holding Problem, the Generalized Tactical FM P and the Multi-Airport Ground Holding Problem (for the definition of these problems see Section 3 below). In each section, we identify the best available models and discuss briefly their computational performance and applications, if any, to date. Section 7 summarizes our conclusions about the state of the art.

Bertsimas, Dimitris↗
NASA NTRS1974

Efficient stream distributions in radiative transfer theory

This paper discusses a new, computationally-efficient method for approximating the integro-differential equation of radiative transfer with a finite set of coupled differential equations for discrete streams. The method uses recommended spatial distributions of streams that are quite different from those typically used in that they are based on the symmetry of several regular Platonic solids. To facilitate the use of such distributions, an explicit, one-parameter relationship between the physical radiance and the abstract stream is formulated. The parameter is used to determine the minimum number of streams required in the radiative transfer model. Accuracy and computational efficiency are shown to be served best by choosing a stream distribution that is invariant to a large number of three space rotations. For various values of the above-mentioned parameter, the resulting recommended stream distribution is shown to be more computationally efficient than more conventional stream distributions. Finally, the incorporation of polarization in the stream definition is described.

Whitney, C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ETM: Upper E Traffic Management

This is a slide set as part of a meeting series with members of a working group aimed at the development of a concept that addresses needs and gaps in the management of high altitude airspace operations. This concept leverages elements developed through the UAS Traffic Management project with respect to a cooperative, service-based approach that provides services and capabilities in areas (e.g., Upper E airspace) that currently receive no or limited service from Air Traffic Control. This concept is meant to provide a safe, fair, and scalable approach to management of Upper E operations that reduces the burden on ATC while providing the flexibility and access desired by current and new users of the airspace. This set of slides includes an overview of discussions and industry news covering the time since the previous group meeting, a discussion of industry's feedback regarding a specific use case, a presentation on lexicon and the definition of Common Operating Practices, and an update on modeling and simulation work.

Upper E↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Analytics, Causal Knowledge Acquisition and Reasoning for Technical Language Processing

Complex engineering systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) generate and collect large amounts of equipment reliability (ER) data elements that contain information on the status of components, assets, and systems. Some of this information is textual in form and can be found in documents such as incident reports (IRs) and work orders (WOs). Analyses of textual data in current NPPs-using natural language processing (NLP) methods-have been expanded over the last decade, and it is only recently that the true potential of such analyses has emerged. So far, applications of NLP methods have mostly been limited to classification and prediction, the goal being to identify the nature of the textual element (e.g., safety or non-safety related). Here, we target a more complex problem: automatically extracting knowledge from a textual element in order to assist system engineers in conducting system health assessments. Knowledge extraction is a very broad concept, and its definition may vary depending on the application context. Our methods are a blend of both rule-based and machine learning (ML) algorithms. For our purposes, knowledge extraction means identifying the systems or assets mentioned in a given textual element, as well as the type of event described (e.g., component failure or maintenance activity). In addition, we want to capture details such as measured quantities and the temporal/cause-effect relations between events. In this tool, we also demonstrate how textual data elements are preprocessed in order to handle typos, acronyms, and abbreviations. One main feature of these methods is that they are not based solely on data, but are in fact model-based. In other words, they also rely on MBSE models that are designed to capture-from a functional point of view-the architecture of the systems/assets under consideration. The main purpose of such models is to digitally emulate system engineers' knowledge of system and asset architecture and to identify dependencies among systems, assets, and components. Provided these models, analyses of textual and numeric ER data can be performed by first identifying the OPM model elements to which the ER data elements are referring. The relationships between ER data elements are then identified by checking for any temporal or logical dependencies.

Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗
NASA NTRS1961

Aerodynamic Loads at Mach Numbers from 0.70 to 2.22 on an Airplane Model Having a Wing and Canard of Triangular Plan Form and Either Single or Twin Vertical Tails: Tabulated Data for the Model with Twin Vertical Tails - Supplement 2

Tabulated results of a wind-tunnel investigation of the aerodynamic loads on a canard airplane model with twin vertical tails are presented for Mach numbers from 0.70 to 2.22. The Reynolds number for the measurements was 2.9 x 10(exp 6) based on the wing mean aerodynamic chord. The results include local static-pressure coefficients measured on the wing, body, and one of the vertical tails for angles of attack from -4 degrees to 16 degree angles of sideslip of 0 degrees and 5.3 degrees, and nominal canard deflections of O degrees and 10 degrees. Also included are section force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the local pressures and model-component force and moment coefficients obtained from integrations of the section coefficients. Geometric details of the model are shown and the locations of the pressure orifices are shown. An index to the data contained herein is presented and definitions of nomenclature are given. Detailed descriptions of the model and experiments and a brief discussion of some of the results are given. Tabulated results of measurements of the aerodynamic loads on the same canard model but having a single vertical tail instead of twin vertical tails are presented.

Peterson, Victor L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Photochemical Phenomenology Model for the New Millenium

This project tackles the problem of conversion of validated a priori physics-based modeling capabilities, specifically those relevant to the analysis and interpretation of planetary atmosphere observations, to application-oriented software for use in science and science-support activities. The software package under development, named the Photochemical Phenomenology Modeling Tool (PPMT), has particular focus on the atmospheric remote sensing data to be acquired by the CIRS instrument during the CASSINI Jupiter flyby and orbital tour of the Saturnian system. Overall, the project has followed the development outline given in the original proposal, and the Year 1 design and architecture goals have been met. Specific accomplishments and the difficulties encountered are summarized in this report. Most of the effort has gone into complete definition of the PPMT interfaces within the context of today's IT arena: adoption and adherence to the CORBA Component Model (CCM) has yielded a solid architecture basis, and CORBA-related issues (services, specification options, development plans, etc.) have been largely resolved. Implementation goals have been redirected somewhat so as to be more relevant to the upcoming CASSINI flyby of Jupiter, with focus now being more on data analysis and remote sensing retrieval applications.

Bishop, James↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coilgun Acceleration Model Containing Interactions Between Multiple Coils

Electromagnetic (EM) accelerators have the potential to fill a performance range not currently being met by conventional chemical and electric propulsion systems by providing a specific impulse of 600-1000 seconds and a thrust-to-power ratio greater than 200 mN/kW. A propulsion system based on EM acceleration of small projectiles has the traditional advantages of using a pulsed system, including precise control over a range of thrust and power levels as well as rapid response and repetition rates. Furthermore, EM accelerators have lower power requirements than conventional electric propulsion systems since no plasma creation is necessary. A coilgun is a specific type of EM device where a high-current pulse through a coil of wire interacts with a conductive projectile via an induced magnetic field to accelerate the projectile. There are no physical or electrical connections to the projectile, which leads to less system degradation and a longer life expectancy. Multi-staging a coilgun by adding multiple turns on a single coil or on the projectile increases the inductance, thus permitting acceleration of the projectile to higher velocities. Previously, a simplified problem of modeling an inductively-coupled, single-coil coilgun using a circuit-based analysis coupled to the one-dimensional momentum equation through Lenz's law was solved; however, the analysis was only conducted on uncoupled coils. The problem is significantly more complicated when multiple, independently-powered coils simultaneously operate and interact with each other and the projectile through induced magnetic fields. This paper presents a multi-coil model developed with the magnetostatic finite element solver QuickField. In the model, mutual inductance values between pairs of conductors were found by first computing the magnetic field energy for different cases where individual coils or multiple coils carry current, then integrating over the entire finite element domain for each case, and finally using the definition of inductive energy storage to solve for the self and mutual inductance. The electric circuit model is coupled to the projectile through Lenz's law, with the coils coupled through mutual inductance but able to be independently triggered at different times to optimize the acceleration profile. This initial model to predict the behavior of a projectile's acceleration through a coupled, multi-coil coilgun increases the potential of building a highly efficient coilgun thruster with key advantages over other EM thruster systems, thus making it a promising candidate for satellite main propulsion or attitude control thrusters.

Liu, Connie↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enabling Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals: Development and Simulation Testing of the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing System

NASA has developed an advanced arrival management capability for terminal controllers, known as Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS). TSS increases use of performance-based navigation (PBN) arrival procedures during periods of high traffic demand. It extends two Federal Aviation Administration's operational systems with terminal metering and controller spacing tools. Sixteen high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations, involving more than five hundred hours of evaluation time, were conducted to mature TSS from proof-of- concept design to fully functional prototype. These simulations modeled arrival procedures at several U.S. airports, incorporated a broad range of traffic demand profiles and wind conditions, and used controllers with extensive operational experience. Two fundamental metrics are evaluated for these simulations: PBN Success Rate and Inter-Arrival Spacing Error. The PBN Success Rate shows a definitive trend when TSS is used. It increases from 42 percent for today's operations to 68 percent for terminal metering only and 92 percent for terminal metering with controller-managed spacing tools. Meanwhile, the Inter-Arrival Spacing Error improves 25 to 35 percent when TSS is used compared to not used. The TSS technology was transferred to the FAA and, and it is targeted for deployment to several busy airports in the U.S. starting in 2018.

terminal metering↗
NASA NTRS2018

Is MBSE Helping? Measuring Value on Europa Clipper

JPL’s Integrated Model Centric Engineering Initiative (IMCE) has led the infusion of MBSE at JPL. In 2009 I authored for IMCE a set of challenges that confronted systems engineering at JPL, based on examination of issues and lessons from several recent projects (the “Five System Engineering Challenges”). In 2012 I augmented this work to describe specific areas where it appeared MBSE could help address these challenges. Around the same time, the Europa Clipper Mission became the first project at JPL to attempt, in close collaboration with IMCE, a widespread adoption of MBSE. This adoption has been highly successful so far. Europa Clipper completed Phase A (Formulation) with a successful System Requirements Review / Mission Definition Review, and is nearing the end of Phase B, with a successful Flight System Preliminary Design Review in October 2017. This is an opportune time to take stock of the progress and the work yet to go. This paper proposes a practical method for measuring value added through use of MBSE, applies this method to the Europa Clipper Project, and suggests how it might be applied to other projects and organizations.

Bayer, Todd↗
NASA NTRS1979

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study, exhibit C. Volume 5: Special emphasis studies

Specific areas were analyzed and identified as high priority for more in-depth analysis. These areas were: (1) rectenna constructability; (2) satellite constructability; (3) support systems constructability; (4) space environmental analysis, and (5) special end-to-end analyses. Baseline requirements specified coplanar solar blankets and an end mounted antenna, utilizing either GaAlAs solar cells and employing a CR of 2, or Si cells. Several configurations were analyzed. Utilizing the preferred configuration as a baseline, a satellite construction base was defined, precursor operations incident to establishment of orbital support facilities identified, and the satellite construction sequence and procedures developed. Since the baseline specifies sixty instead of one hundred and twenty satellites to be constructed in a thirty year period, mass flow to orbit requirements were revised and new traffic models established. Launch site requirements (exclusive of actual launch operations) in terms of manpower and building space were defined.

Hanley, G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Fisher forecasting for cosmology

The planning and design of future experiments rely heavily on forecasting to assess the potential scientific value provided by a hypothetical set of measurements. The Fisher information matrix, due to its convenient properties and low computational cost, provides an especially useful forecasting tool. However, the Fisher matrix only provides a reasonable approximation to the true likelihood when data are nearly Gaussian distributed and observables have nearly linear dependence on the parameters of interest. Also, Fisher forecasting techniques alone cannot be used to assess their own validity. Thorough sampling of the exact or mock likelihood can definitively determine whether a Fisher forecast is valid, though such sampling is often prohibitively expensive. Here we propose a simple test, based on the Derivative Approximation for likelihoods (DALI) technique, to determine whether the Fisher matrix provides a good approximation to the exact likelihood. We show that the Fisher matrix becomes a poor approximation to the true likelihood in regions where two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the DALI approximation to the likelihood differ from two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the Fisher approximation to the likelihood. We demonstrate that our method accurately predicts situations in which the Fisher approximation deviates from the true likelihood for various cosmological models and several data combinations, with only a modest increase in computational cost compared to standard Fisher forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗