Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “mass”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining nucleon effective masses with flow and stopping observables from the S π RIT experiment

Properties of the nuclear equation of state (EoS) can be probed by measuring the dynamical properties of nucleus-nucleus collisions. In this study, we present the directed flow (υ 1 ), elliptic flow (υ 2 ) and stopping (VarXZ) measured in fixed target Sn + Sn collisions at 270 AMeV with the SπRIT Time Projection Chamber. We perform Bayesian analyses in which EoS parameters are varied simultaneously within the Improved Quantum Molecular Dynamics-Skyrme (ImQMD-Sky) transport code to obtain a multivariate correlated constraint. The varied parameters include symmetry energy, S 0 , and slope of the symmetry energy, L, at saturation density, isoscalar effective mass, $m^{⁎}_{S}$/$m_{N}$ , isovector effective mass, $m^{⁎}_{υ}$/$m_{N}$ and the in-medium cross-section enhancement factor η. We find that the flow and VarXZ observables are sensitive to the splitting of proton and neutron effective masses and the in-medium cross-section. Comparisons of ImQMD-Sky predictions to the SπRIT data suggest a narrow range of preferred values for $m^{⁎}_{S}$/$m_{N}$, $m^{⁎}_{υ}$/$m_{N}$ and η.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

OzDES Reverberation Mapping of Active Galactic Nuclei: Final Data Release, Black-Hole Mass Results, & Scaling Relations

Over the last decade, the Australian Dark Energy (OzDES) collaboration has used Reverberation Mapping to measure the masses of high redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present the final review and analysis of this OzDES reverberation mapping campaign. These observations use 6-7 years of photometric and spectroscopic observations of 735 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the redshift range 0.13-3.85 and bolometric luminosity range 44.3 - 47.5 erg/s. Both photometry and spectra are observed in visible wavelengths, allowing for the physical scale of the AGN broad line region to be estimated from reverberations of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emission lines. We successfully use reverberation mapping to constrain the masses of 62 super-massive black holes, and combine with existing data to fit a power law to the lag-luminosity relation for the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱ and MgII lines with a scatter of ~0.25 dex, the tightest yet identified, fit specifically for consistency with high redshift AGN. We fit a similarly constrained relation for CIV, resolving a tension with the low luminosity literature AGN by accounting for selection effects arising from finite survey length. We also examine the impact of emission line width and luminosity (related to accretion rate) in reducing the scatter of these scaling relationships and find no significant improvement over the lag-only approach for any of the three lines. Using these relations, we further estimate the masses and accretion rates of 246 AGN with single epoch methods. We also use these relations to estimate the relative sizes of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emitting regions. In short, we provide a comprehensive benchmark of high redshift AGN reverberation mapping at the close of this most recent generation of surveys, including light curves, time-delays, and a set of significantly improved radius-luminosity relations for use with high-redshift populations.

McDougall, Hugh [Queensland U.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotopic Heterogeneity Imaged in a Uranium Fuel Pellet with Extreme Ultraviolet Laser Ablation and Ionization Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry

We use extreme ultraviolet laser ablation and ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (EUV TOF) to map uranium isotopic heterogeneity at the nanoscale (=100 nm). Using low-enriched uranium fuel pellets that were made by blending two isotopically distinct feedstocks, we show that EUV TOF can map the 235U/238U content in 100 nm-sized pixels. The two-dimensional (2D) isotope maps reveal U ratio variations in sub-microscale to =1 µm areas of the pellet that had not been fully exposed by microscale or bulk mass spectrometry analyses. Compared to the ratio distribution measured in a homogeneous U reference material, the ratios in the enriched pellet follow a ~3× wider distribution. These results indicate U heterogeneity in the fuel pellet from incomplete blending of the different source materials. EUV TOF results agree well with those obtained on the same enriched pellets by nanoscale secondary ionization mass spectrometry (NanoSIMS), which reveals a comparable U isotope ratio distribution at the same spatial scale. EUV TOF’s ability to assess and map isotopic heterogeneity at the nanoscale makes it a promising tool in fields such as nuclear forensics, geochemistry, and biology that could benefit from uncovering sub-microscale sources of chemical modifications.

Rush, Lydia A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive Combined with Paper Spray Mass Spectrometry for Low-Cost Collection and Analysis of Drug Residues

Illicit drug use causes over half a million deaths worldwide every year. Drugs of abuse are commonly smuggled through customs and border checkpoints and, increasingly, through parcel delivery services. Improved methods for detection of trace drug residues from surfaces are needed. Such methods should be robust, fieldable, sensitive, and capable of detecting a wide range of drugs. In this work, commercially produced paper with a pressure-sensitive adhesive coating was utilized for the collection and analysis of trace drug residues by paper spray mass spectrometry (MS). This modified substrate was used to combine sample collection of drug residues from surfaces with rapid detection using a single paper spray ticket. The all-in-one ticket was used to probe different surfaces commonly encountered in forensic work including clothing, cardboard, glass, concrete, asphalt, and aluminum. A total of 10 drugs (acetyl fentanyl, fentanyl, clonazolam, cocaine, heroin, ketamine, methamphetamine, methylone, U-47700, and XLR-11) were evaluated and found to be detectable in the picogram range using a benchtop mass spectrometer and in the low nanogram range using a portable ion trap MS. Finally, the novel approach demonstrates a simple yet effective sampling strategy, allowing for rapid identification from difficult surfaces via paper spray mass spectrometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of the In Vivo Deuteration of Native Phospholipids by Mass Spectrometry Yields Guidelines for Their Regiospecific Customization

Customization of deuterated biomolecules is vital for many advanced biological experiments including neutron scattering. However, because it is challenging to control the proportion and regiospecificity of deuterium incorporation in live systems, often only two or three synthetic lipids are mixed together to form simplistic model membranes. This limits the applicability and biological accuracy of the results generated with these synthetic membranes. Despite some limited prior examination of deuterating Escherichia coli lipids in vivo, this approach has not been widely implemented. In this report an extensive mass spectrometry-based profiling of E. coli phospholipid deuteration states with several different growth media was performed, and a computational method to describe deuterium distributions with a one-number summary is introduced. The deuteration states of 36 lipid species were quantitatively profiled in 15 different growth conditions, and tandem mass spectrometry was used to reveal deuterium localization. Regressions were employed to enable the prediction of lipid deuteration for untested conditions. Small-angle neutron scattering was performed on select deuterated lipid samples, which validated the deuteration states calculated from the mass spectral data. Based on these experiments, guidelines for the design of specifically deuterated phospholipids are described. This unlocks even greater capabilities from neutron-based techniques, enabling experiments that were formerly impossible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Synchrotron-Based Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization Mass Spectrometer-Coupled Microreactor To Probe Thermocatalysis

Vacuum ultraviolet photoionization (VUV-PI) mass spectrometry offers an isomer-selective and universal ionization with minimal fragmentation detection of organics in complex chemical systems such as pyrolysis and combustion. Here, in this study, we report a state-of-the-art experimental setup of a universal catalytic microreactor combined with a molecular beam to investigate the thermocatalytic oxidation of a heterogeneous system relevant for probing reactions at gas–solid interfaces. In strong contrast to traditional off-line analytical methods, this technique is capable of identifying and quantifying short-lived species (radicals) as well as stable products to decipher initial reaction steps via the detection of nascent products. The thermocatalytic oxidative degradation of exo-tetrahydrodicyclopentadiene (JP-10), a high energy-density hydrocarbon fuel, over solid titanium–aluminum–boron reactive mixed metal nanopowder (Ti-Al-B RMNP) is exploited to showcase potential applications. Overall, some 59 nascent gas-phase products are identified via photoionization efficiency (PIE) curves, including oxygenated species and hydrocarbons comprising closed-shell molecules and radicals. The critical temperature for complete oxidative decomposition of JP-10 was lowered by 450 K from 1400 K to 950 K, indicating an efficient thermocatalytic action of Ti-Al-B nanoparticles on JP-10. The enabling of a universal chemical microreactor along with VUV-PI mass spectrometry broadens the applicability of this technique to hydrocarbon fuel oxidation and pyrolysis characterization. This isomer-selective sensitive probing along with the detection of radical transients makes the aforementioned technique superior to other conventional analytical techniques such as microflow tube and pyrolysis-gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry for investigating similar pyrolysis reactions and comprehensive quantification.

Paul, Dababrata [Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolul↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectroscopic Online Monitoring: Using a Multi-Track Visible Spectrometer to Facilitate a Mass Balance Study in a Simulated TALSPEAK Process

Nuclear energy is a promising low-carbon energy candidate to meet the increased demand for green energy, where the integration of fuel recycling can have significant benefits for material usage and waste reduction. Utilizing in situ monitoring tools can provide ample opportunities to better control and safeguard nuclear material recycle processes while also offering knowledge and insight into real-time solution properties. The simultaneous measurement of analytical targets in multiple process locations can enable real-time mass balance and material accountancy calculations. This is demonstrated here with a mass balance study of Nd 3+ on countercurrent aqueous/organic metal extraction within a single centrifugal contactor. The Nd 3+ concentration was simultaneously monitored at the inlets and outlets of both aqueous and organic phases using a visible absorbance detector that allowed for the simultaneous measurement of up to six locations. The Nd 3+ concentration was calculated by using chemical data science algorithms, where model training sets were collected on a single track of the detector. The discussion includes addressing the challenges of using a model collected on a single track and applying it as a model across the other tracks on the detector. Each track of the detector corresponds to one measurement location on the contactor. The difference in the integrated moles of Nd 3+ between the inlet and outlet at the end of the experiment was near zero, indicating that the mass balance of this experiment was maintained. Overall, the online spectroscopic monitoring was able to follow changing solution conditions and accurately measure the concentration of Nd 3+ in different locations within the contactor system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Approaches for Accelerated Mass Spectrometric Detection of Fluorochemicals from Aqueous Solutions Using Indirect, Adsorbent-Facilitated Desorption Ionization

There is a growing need for rapid, low-cost analytical tools to screen water supplies for persistent contaminants. Due to their ubiquitous presence in the environment and their detrimental effects on human health, there is a public interest in widespread testing for perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). However, the most common methods for PFAS analysis can be time-intensive, requiring a preconcentration step followed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS), and are cost-prohibitive for most members of the public. To address these challenges, this study explores a novel method for rapid analysis of aqueous analytes by concentrating analytes on solid adsorbents and detecting them using mass spectrometric analysis via desorption ionization directly from the adsorbent surface. We demonstrate this general approach of indirect solution analysis (ISA) with desorption electrospray ionization (ISA-DESI) and laser desorption ionization (ISA-LDI). Various adsorbent materials were screened, including commercial mesoporous carbons, alumina, and metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Using ISA-DESI, we consistently detect concentrations as low as 5–100 parts per trillion (ppt) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and 10–100 ppt for perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA). This approach enables rapid detection in under 5 min, making it suitable for applications requiring trace detection with fast response times. We further demonstrate the use of ISA-DESI on a range of environmentally relevant contaminants. Advantages of this indirect solution analysis approach include simplified sample preparation, accelerated analysis, and low cost with readily available materials, making it a promising tool to accelerate mass spectrometric PFAS detection for identifying contaminated sites, performing laboratory studies, and monitoring industrial waste streams.

Bays, Nathan Robert [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Peak2Patch: High-Fidelity Functional Group Identification through Attention-Based Fusion of Infrared and Mass Spectra

Identifying molecular structure based on spectroscopic readings is a key task in a variety of chemical and biological applications. Common spectroscopy techniques, such as Infrared (IR) Spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry (MS), provide detailed information on the structure of molecular compounds but nonetheless require expert-level knowledge to decode. Machine learning has emerged as a potential solution for automating structure prediction from chemical spectra; however, current approaches generally focus on single sensor modalities, neglecting to leverage the complementary information contained within differing spectra. In this paper, we introduce Peak2Patch, a novel approach to fusion-enhanced prediction of functional groups from IR and mass spectra. First, we perform a detailed comparison of backbone networks for encoding both sparse mass spectra and dense IR spectra and demonstrate the superior performance of transformer neural networks over current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks. Second, we evaluate three broad categories of fusion: early (raw feature), middle (deep feature), and late (decision) fusion, demonstrating the potential of a deep feature fusion-based approach. Lastly, we present Peak2Patch, our attention-based fusion scheme, which leverages cross-attention to mix features between encoded tokens of the two modalities. We validate our approach on a publicly available multimodal spectroscopic data set of 790k simulated molecules, demonstrating a large improvement in functional group prediction over both the previous state-of-the-art and our own strong single-modal baselines.

Jacobson, Philip [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗
DOE OSTI2024

PeakQC: A Software Tool for Omics-Agnostic Automated Quality Control of Mass Spectrometry Data

Mass spectrometry is broadly employed to study complex molecular mechanisms in various biological and environmental fields, enabling 'omics' research such as proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics. As study cohorts grow larger and more complex with dozens to hundreds of samples, the need for robust quality control (QC) measures through automated software tools becomes paramount to ensure the integrity, high quality, and validity of scientific conclusions from downstream analyses and minimize the waste of resources. Since existing QC tools are mostly dedicated to proteomics, automated solutions supporting metabolomics are needed. To address this need, we developed the software PeakQC, a tool for automated QC of MS data that is independent of omics molecular types (i.e., omics-agnostic). It allows automated extraction and inspection of peak metrics of precursor ions (e.g., errors in mass, retention time, arrival time) and supports various instrumentations and acquisition types, from infusion experiments or using liquid chromatography and/or ion mobility spectrometry front-end separations and with/without fragmentation spectra from data-dependent or independent acquisition analyses. Diagnostic plots for fragmentation spectra are also generated. Here, in this paper, we describe and illustrate PeakQC’s functionalities using different representative data sets, demonstrating its utility as a valuable tool for enhancing the quality and reliability of omics mass spectrometry analyses.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Capabilities in Estimating Snow Mass Intercepted in Conifer Canopies With Tree Sway Monitoring

Snowpack accumulation in forested watersheds depends on the amount of snow intercepted in the canopy and its partitioning into sublimation, unloading, and melt. A lack of canopy snow measurements limits our ability to evaluate models that simulate canopy processes and predict snowpack. We tested whether monitoring changes in wind-induced tree sway is a viable technique for detecting snow interception and quantifying canopy snow water equivalent (SWE). Over a 6 year period in Colorado, we monitored hourly sway of two conifers, each instrumented with an accelerometer sampling at 12 Hz. We developed an approach to distinguish changes in sway frequency due to thermal effects on tree rigidity versus intercepted snow mass. Over 60% of days with canopy snow had a sway signal that could not be distinguished from thermal effects. However, larger changes in tree sway could not generally be attributed to thermal effects, and canopy snow was present 93%–95% of the time, as confirmed with classified PhenoCam imagery. Using sway tests, we converted changes in sway to canopy SWE, which were correlated with total snowstorm amounts from a nearby SNOTEL site (Spearman r = 0.72 to 0.80, p < 0.001). Greater canopy SWE was associated with storm temperatures between -7°C and 0°C and wind speeds less than 4 m s -1 . Lower canopy SWE prevailed in storms with lower temperatures and higher wind speeds. Monitoring tree sway is a viable approach for quantifying canopy SWE, but challenges remain in converting changes in sway to mass and distinguishing thermal and snow mass effects on tree sway.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Breaking the Window of Detection: Using Multi-Scale Solute Tracer Studies to Assess Mass Recovery at the Detection Limit

Stream solute tracers are commonly injected to assess transport and transformation in study reaches, but results are biased toward the shortest and fastest storage locations. While this bias has been understood for decades, the impact of an experimental constraint on our understanding has yet to be considered. Here, we ask how different our understanding of reach- and segment-scale transport would be if our empirical limits were extended. We demonstrate a novel approach to manipulate experimental conditions and observe mass that is stored at timescales beyond the traditional reach-scale window of detection. We are able to explain the fate of an average of 26% of solute tracer mass that would have been considered as “lost” in a traditional study design across our 14 replicates, extending our detection limits to characterize flowpaths that would have been previously unmeasured. We demonstrate how this formerly lost mass leads to predicting lower magnitudes of gross gains and losses in individual reaches, and ultimately show that the network turnover we infer from solute tracers represents an upper limit on actual, expected behavior. Finally, we review the evolution of tracer studies and their interpretation including this approach and provide a proposed future direction to extend empirical studies to not-before-seen timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Physically Based Ice Radiative Processes on Greenland Ice Sheet Albedo and Surface Mass Balance in E3SM

Abstract A significant portion of surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is due to dark ice regions in the ablation zone, where solar absorption is influenced by the physical properties of the ice, light absorbing constituents (LACs), and the overlying crustal surface or melt ponds. Earth system models (ESMs) typically prescribe the albedo of ice surfaces as a constant value in the visible and near‐infrared spectral regions. This work advances ESM ice radiative transfer modeling by (a) incorporating a physically based radiative transfer model (SNow, ICe and Aerosol Radiation model Adding‐Doubling Version 4; SNICAR‐ADv4) into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), (b) determining spatially and temporally varying bare ice physical properties over the GrIS ablation zone from satellite observations to inform SNICAR‐ADv4, and (c) assessing the impacts on simulated GrIS albedo and surface mass balance associated with modeling of more realistic bare ice albedo. GrIS‐wide bare ice albedo in E3SMv2 is overestimated by ∼4% in the visible and ∼7% in the near‐infrared wavelengths compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our bare ice physical property retrieval method found that LACs, ice crustal surfaces, and melt ponds reduce visible albedo by 30% in the bare ice region of the GrIS ablation zone. The realistic bare ice albedo reduces surface mass balance by ∼145 Gt, or 0.4 mm of sea‐level equivalent between 2000 and 2021 compared to the default E3SM. This work highlights the importance of simulating bare ice albedo accurately and realistically to improve our ability to quantify changes in the GrIS surface mass and radiative energy budgets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Redox-homogeneous, gel electrolyte-embedded high-mass-loading cathodes for high-energy lithium metal batteries

Lithium metal batteries have higher theoretical energy than their Li-ion counterparts, where graphite is used at the anode. However, one of the main stumbling blocks in developing practical Li metal batteries is the lack of cathodes with high-mass-loading capable of delivering highly reversible redox reactions. To overcome this issue, here we report an electrode structure that incorporates a UV-cured non-aqueous gel electrolyte and a cathode where the LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 active material is contained in an electron-conductive matrix produced via simultaneous electrospinning and electrospraying. This peculiar structure prevents the solvent-drying-triggered non-uniform distribution of electrode components and shortens the time for cell aging while improving the overall redox homogeneity. Moreover, the electron-conductive matrix eliminates the use of the metal current collector. When a cathode with a mass loading of 60 mg cm -2 is coupled with a 100 µm thick Li metal electrode using additional non-aqueous fluorinated electrolyte solution in lab-scale pouch cell configuration, a specific energy and energy density of 321 Wh kg -1 and 772 Wh L -1 (based on the total mass of the cell), respectively, can be delivered in the initial cycle at 0.1 C (i.e., 1.2 mA cm -2 ) and 25 °C.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hadronic uncertainties versus new physics for the W boson mass and Muon g – 2 anomalies

There are now two single measurements of precision observables that have major anomalies in the Standard Model: the recent CDF measurement of the W mass shows a 7σ deviation and the Muon g – 2 experiment at FNAL confirmed a long-standing anomaly, implying a 4.2σ deviation. Doubts regarding new physics interpretations of these anomalies could stem from uncertainties in the common hadronic contributions. We demonstrate that these two anomalies pull the hadronic contributions in opposite directions by performing electroweak fits in which the hadronic contribution was allowed to float. The fits show that including the g – 2 measurement worsens the tension with the CDF measurement and conversely that adjustments that alleviate the CDF tension worsen the g – 2 tension beyond 5σ. This means that if we adopt the CDF W mass measurement, the case for new physics in either the W mass or muon g – 2 is inescapable regardless of the size of the SM hadronic contributions. Lastly, we demonstrate that a mixed scalar leptoquark extension of the Standard Model could explain both anomalies simultaneously.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

HypoRiPPAtlas as an Atlas of hypothetical natural products for mass spectrometry database search

Abstract Recent analyses of public microbial genomes have found over a million biosynthetic gene clusters, the natural products of the majority of which remain unknown. Additionally, GNPS harbors billions of mass spectra of natural products without known structures and biosynthetic genes. We bridge the gap between large-scale genome mining and mass spectral datasets for natural product discovery by developing HypoRiPPAtlas, an Atlas of hypothetical natural product structures, which is ready-to-use for in silico database search of tandem mass spectra. HypoRiPPAtlas is constructed by mining genomes using seq2ripp, a machine-learning tool for the prediction of ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides (RiPPs). In HypoRiPPAtlas, we identify RiPPs in microbes and plants. HypoRiPPAtlas could be extended to other natural product classes in the future by implementing corresponding biosynthetic logic. This study paves the way for large-scale explorations of biosynthetic pathways and chemical structures of microbial and plant RiPP classes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗